This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Line Moves and Odds Changes for NFL Week 7
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 7 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints -3.5 O/U 42.5 (Broncos -3.0, O/U 37.0)
- New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -7.0 O/U 42.5 (Jaguars -6.0, O/U 42.0)
- Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 at New York Giants O/U 44.0 (Eagles -3.0, O/U 42.5)
- Miami Dolphins -1.0 at Indianapolis Colts O/U 49.0 (Colts -3.0, O/U 43.5)
- Detroit Lions -3.0 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 48.0 (Vikings -1.0, O/U 50.5)
- Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills -7.0 O/U 47.5 (Bills -9.0, O/U 40.5)
- Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons -3.5 O/U 48.0 (Falcons -3.0, O/U 51.0)
- Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers -2.5 O/U 48.5 (Packers -2.5, O/U 47.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals -1.0 at Cleveland Browns O/U 46.5 (Bengals -6.0, O/U 41.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams -4.5 O/U 46.0 (Rams -7.0, O/U 43.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders -3.0 O/U 42.0 (Commanders -8.0, O/U 51.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers -1.0 O/U 49.0 (49ers -1.0, O/U 47.0)
- New York Jets -1.0 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 43.0 (Jets -1.5, O/U 38.5)
- Baltimore Ravens -5.0 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 46.0 (Ravens -3.5, O/U 49.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals -1.0 O/U 45.0 (Chargers -2.5, O/U 44.5)
BYES: Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears
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NFL Week 7 Key Injury News
QB Derek Carr (NO), Anthony Richardson (IND)
RB De'Von Achane (MIA), James Cook (BUF), Gus Edwards (LAC), Travis Etienne (JAC), Aaron Jones (MIN), Alvin Kamara (NO), Jordan Mason (SF), Christian McCaffrey (SF), Isiah Pacheco (KC), Brian Robinson (WAS), Devin Singletary (NYG), Tyjae Spears (TEN), Rachaad White (TB), Zamir White (LV), Jerome Ford (CLE)
WR Davante Adams (NYJ), Nico Collins (HOU), Brandin Cooks (DAL), Marvin Harrison (ARI), Chris Olave (NO), Cooper Kupp (LAR), Puka Nacua (LAR), Jakobi Meyers (LV), Jayden Reed (GB), Rashee Rice (KC), Rashid Shaheed (NO), Dontayvion Wicks (GB), Mike Williams (NYJ)
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI)
DE Aidan Hutchinson (DET)
NFL Week 7 Odds Observations
- The majority of early line movements have come on the totals, with most trending lower
- Only 2 favorites of more than 7 points
- 10 games with a line within 3 points or less
- This sets the highest numbers on totals following the Week 6 scoring explosion, with 5 games at least 47.5 or higher
NFL Week 7 Line Movement
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
The Saints opened as -3.5 home favorites, but with the Derek Carr injury it moved to Broncos -1.0. The line now sits at Broncos -2.0. This is a tough game to handicap because the Broncos probably do not deserve to be road favorites in this spot. Not only must the Saints deal with the quarterback injury, they also have health issues with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara on a short week.
The total is also impacted by the injuries as it opened at 42.5 and has since fallen to 37.0 despite the high scoring game Sunday between the Bucs and Saints.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback injuries have the biggest impact on line movement, and that is the case for the Dolphins since Tua Tagovailoa went down. But they are also dealing with injuries to De'Von Achane, Jevon Holland, and Jordan Poyer. The Colts are also not without injuries as QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor are questionable.
The game opened Dolphins -1.0 and it jumped to Colts -4.0 a week ago. The line has bounced around from -3.0 and -4.0 most of the week with it now at Colts -3.5. The total has also shifted down significantly from 49.0 to 44.0.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
This line originally moved because of the Vikings power ratings and not any injury situation. But the Lions now have a key injury to DE Aidan Hutchinson which might have moved the line 0.5 to 1.0 points. This opened at Lions -3.0 and moved to -3.5 Week 1. But with the Vikings suprising success it has moved to Vikings -1.5 and now -2.5. We could see this settle in at Vikings -3.0 with the Hutchinson injury. The total has actually moved from 47.0 up to 50.0 with a peak of 51.0.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
Much like the Vikings, the Commanders lines and totals continue to move in their favor as they have exceeded expectations. The Panthers are also dealing with significant injuries on the offensive and defensive lines.
The Commanders opened as -3.0 home favorites and peaked at -8.5, before some buyback on the Panthers that has it now at Commanders -7.5. The total has seen a huge spike from 42.0 all the way to 52.0 based on the Commanders offense and lack of defense on both Carolina and Washington.
Other Notable Line Moves
Jets/Steelers - Total has moved 6.5 points from 43.0 to 36.5
Bengals/Browns - Line has moved 4.0 points and total has moved 3.5 points
