NFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

We're finally back! 

Last year was the first in which I picked games against the spread for RotoWire, and things went relatively well. However, I'm as eager to finish in the money with the Best Bets section as I am with the games themselves. With several new sportsbooks available and massive Week 1 boosts, this is your one-stop shop for everything when it comes to NFL Week 1 lines.

Below you will find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 1 NFL slate. 

For more NFL betting content at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. 

NFL Week 1 Picks For Each Game

NFL Week 1 Predictions

2023 Season Record ATS: 139-126-7
2023 Season Record on Totals: 130-137-5

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 1 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Home teams are listed last.

Ravens vs. Chiefs

I've come to the conclusion that Kadarius Toney was a sleeper agent planted by Dave Gettleman, as it's the only conceivable way A) someone would choose to select Toney in the first round of the NFL Draft and B) an NFL wide receiver would have as many egregious drops as he did around this time last year. If not for Toney's bungled opportunities, the Chiefs would have pretty convincingly beat the Lions in the season opener, and that team was significantly worse than the one they will trot out Thursday against the Ravens. This is just a bet on a team that has "been there, done that" taking care of business -- no matter the opponent.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -3
Total Pick: Under 46.5

Packers vs. Eagles

I'm staying far away from this game. An out-of-country Week 1 matchup on a Friday between one team coming off a historical collapse and another that saw an inexplicable rise after struggling mightily to begin 2023? As the kids would say, there's way too many "icks" to even consider getting action on this one.

My natural preference is to default to the unders in Week 1, and that this is one of the higher expected offensive outputs of the opening week kind of reinforces that notion. More infuriating to me is that we're going to have very little to work off entering Week 2 for two teams that are arguably the most divisive entering the new campaign.

Spread Pick: Eagles -2.5
Total Pick: Under 48.5

Steelers vs. Falcons

The half point makes a significant difference to me, so shop around to find the best value. I think by the end of the year we will consider the Falcons a significantly better team, but Mike Tomlin will obviously have the coaching advantage in Week 1, and more importantly his team knows what they are for better or for worse.

This might be one of those perfect teaser plays, as I can easily see the Falcons winning. However, it's going to be hard for them to generate enough points to win by double digits.

Spread Pick: Steelers +3.5
Total Pick: Over 42

Cardinals vs. Bills

This is a sneaky Week 1 matchup for the Bills, who saw significant personnel changes on both sides of the ball over the offseason. Josh Allen is a fantastic quarterback, but I could definitely see a scenario where he struggles to produce in Week 1 with a number of new faces at the wideout spots.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a pre-Call-of-Duty-release Kyler Murray healthy and are only tasked with integrating one of the more can't-miss wide receiver prospects of the past decade in Marvin Harrison Jr. Put it this way -- it's easier to envision a scenario where both offenses struggle than it is to assume each team will come out playing at last year's peak.

Spread Pick: Cardinals +6.5
Total Pick: Under 48

Titans vs. Bears

It's a bit unnerving  that this line has risen a point over the past few weeks. I'm not sure if it's the Hard Knocks hype, or more because of my concern that Tennessee doesn't have much of an identity, but I'm well aware that rookie quarterbacks making their Week 1 debut are 16-35-1.

That being said, most rookie QBs aren't entering their first year with as much ammunition as Caleb Williams has, nor are they entering with the type of talent I think Williams possesses. There will be lulls, no doubt, but the Bears will win plenty of games against inferior opponents, and the Titans more than qualify.

Spread Pick: Bears -4
Total Pick: Under 44.5

Patriots vs. Bengals

This line is down a full point since I was tracking it Tuesday, presumably with the news that Ja'Marr Chase is not a lock for Week 1. I don't really understand the holdout strategy Chase's camp has employed, only because the third-year wideout needs to play this season in order to accrue enough service time in order to actually hold out the following year. That being said, I don't think it matters much if Chase is there or not, as I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals win this one pretty handily.

There will be a point in the season where Drake Maye starts and I could see siding with the Pats on occasion, but at least for the early portion of the year, New England will be a heavy underdog that I'm happy to bet against.

Spread Pick: Bengals -7.5
Total Pick: Under 40.5

Texans vs. Colts

Once again, the half point matters a lot to me. I think the Texans are going to be one of the better teams in the AFC, but they had to eek out wins at Indy over the past two years and previously hadn't won in the building since 2018.

I do have significant trepidation regarding Anthony Richardson, whereas C.J. Stroud is in an absolute wheels-up scenario against a pitiful Colts secondary. That alone is reason to take the Texans and the points. This could be one of the more impactful games on the Week 1 slate in terms of adjusting expectations for the rest of the year.

Spread Pick: Texans -2.5
Total Pick:  Under 48.5

Jaguars vs. Dolphins

You'll notice I'm leaning towards the under in most of these projected high-scoring games, but this feels like a good spot for offense, in which case the Dolphins should be the presumed favorite.

There's almost zero travel for this game, the weather conditions couldn't be better and everyone seems to be healthy. Jacksonville was a prohibitive favorite to win the division last year before Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence both got injured. They're a good team and have enough offensive weapons to threaten any defense, especially one still learning a new scheme. Conversely we all know how dynamic Tyreek Hill and that offense can be, and while the Jaguars added some pieces defensively, it just doesn't seem like a well-coached team in that phase.

Spread Pick: Dolphins -3
Total Pick: Over 49

Panthers vs. Saints

Typically I make the joke that you're better off not watching this game, but I have an almost macabre interest this time around. I don't think there's anything correctable about Bryce Young's game nor do I think the pieces added to that attack will matter much at all. In the same token, though, he really can't get "much" worse and it doesn't seem like a JaMarcus Russell scenario where Young just literally doesn't care to improve.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak should make a difference for the New Orleans passing attack, but what's the quantifiable amount? And if it's substantially higher, does it really matter if the team actively hates the starting quarterback? Neither of these teams will be particularly good this season, and there are a ton of unanswered questions entering Week 1.

Spread Pick: Saints -4
Total Pick: Over 41.5

Vikings vs. Giants

I'm not really sure I understand why the Vikings are favored. I'm far from a believer in J.J. McCarthy, but it doesn't seem as if Sam Darnold is that much of an improvement over the rookie and the Giants will have home-field advantage.

Of course Daniel Jones probably isn't a top-40 quarterback in the NFL, but Brian Daboll knows what he's working with, for better or worse. The offense will be bad, the team will be bad, but I just go back to thinking the Vikings are in a similar spot.

Spread Pick: Giants +1.5
Total Pick: Over 41

Raiders vs. Chargers

I didn't know there was so much upwell regarding the Chargers as a playoff team. Jim Harbaugh is a significant difference compared to Brandon Staley, but if Los Angeles is a legitimate playoff team this is one of those games they absolutely have to win. So why does Vegas have the Raiders as only three-point dogs on the road with Gardner Minshew under center?

The point total feels appropriately set given both teams will want to run the ball heavily, but I think there's an opportunity to capitalize either via live betting or by catching some first-half prop figures. More on that below.

Spread Pick: Chargers -3
Total Pick: Under 40.5

Broncos vs. Seahawks

This is probably the one game I've changed my opinion on the most during the preseason. I've went on record that I'll take the under on Denver's win total this season, but I assumed they'd be one of the worst offenses of the past decade, when in reality it's probably more like they will be a bottom-third offense. I have a significant -- and frankly confusing -- bias regarding Sean Payton, but I think he can get Bo Nix to be something like a top-25 quarterback in the league, even with limited weapons.

I don't know what to make of Mike MacDonald as a head coach, but Seattle has historically done a pretty good job of finding people that fit the culture of the franchise. Whether it's getting Kenneth Walker to be more of a focal point, using Noah Fant exclusively as the main tight end or just unleashing Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there's a lot of untapped upside. The Seahawks should win, but this might be a better game than I envisioned when the schedule was released over the summer.

Spread Pick: Seahawks -6
Total Pick: Over 41.5

Cowboys vs. Browns

If the general rule of thumb is that each conference cycles out three playoff teams, shouldn't the Browns be among the odds-on favorites to fall out playoff favor? Deshaun Watson was 5-1 as a starter last year, but I'd argue it was more of the defense that did the heavy lifting with that record.

CeeDee Lamb is signed and the Dak Prescott / Micah Parsons money conundrum seems to have simmered with the start of the year on the horizon. Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys may choke every year in the playoffs, but they reliably have been one of the better teams in the regular season since the start of the decade.

Spread Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Total Pick: Over 41

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

I just don't get this one at all. The Buccaneers won the division last year, nearly made it to the NFC Championship and yet are basically on par with a 4-13 team that drafted an aged Heisman winner and added a bunch of significantly-long-in-the-tooth veterans? Come on now.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers -3
Total Pick: Under 44

Rams vs. Lions

At least right now, everyone on the Rams is healthy. A healthy Rams team minus Aaron Donald might be a fringe playoff team, but they certainly have the offense to compete with anyone.

I think there's also some rightful fear in suggesting the Lions -- everyone's favorite Super Bowl pick -- could get high on their own supply, so to speak. I think Dan Campbell is a terrific head coach and the retention of wunderkind Ben Johnson will at least make Year 1 of the Jared Goff extension a bargain, but it's not as if the Rams are a pushover. Once again, the half point is a key part of the equation for me.

Spread Pick: Rams +3.5
Total Pick: Over 51

Jets vs. 49ers

Everyone is re-signed, Christian McCaffrey is healthy and yet, I'm just a bit worried going with San Francisco. The Jets are far from a well-coached team and historically the Aaron Rodgers / Nathaniel Hackett combo has started out slow, but as we saw at various points last year, New York can still win with defense alone.

I know this lacks a sabermetrics feel, but I'm wary about the sheer overwhelming amount of bad vibes the 49ers had to deal with all summer and will suddenly need to wipe away in a seven-day span. Maybe it doesn't impact the Super Bowl favorites in Week 1, but that dooming albatross that spent the offseason perched on the shoulders of several players has to weigh in at some point.

Spread Pick: Jets +4.5
Total Pick: Over 43

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 1 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 1

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 1. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 1 at BetMGM.

• Chiefs moneyline (-150)
• Buccaneers moneyline (-165)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 1

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 1. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• (BOOST) Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley to both go over 59.5 yards (+240)

bet365 Best Bets for NFL Week 1

bet365 has a strong menu of NFL Week 1 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the bet365 promo code ROTOWIRE for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at bet365.

• Ray Davis over 16.5 rushing yards (-110)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 1

The DraftKings promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets to kick off the season. DraftKings has special offers for new users just in time for Week 1 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• NE Patriots to lose a fumble (+120)
• (+200) Seven-point teaser with Bengals (-1), Giants (+9), Broncos (+13) and Cowboys (+9.5)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 1

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Three-part WAS/TB same-game parlay
  • Buccaneers win
  • Terry McLaurin over 7.5 receiving yards first quarter
  • Chris Godwin over 40+ receiving yards

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 1

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 1.

• Alvin Kamara to catch a pass on Saints' first drive (+114)
• Result of Chargers' first drive will be punt (+106)

Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 1

Fanatics Sportsbook is ringing in its first full NFL season. You can get in on the action at Fanatics by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo for up to $1,000 in bonus bets over the first 10 days that your account is active. Here are our favorite picks this week using odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.

• Four-part LAC/LV same-game parlay (+175)
  • 24.5 under first-half points
  • J.K. Dobbins over 20+ rushing yards
  • Joshua Palmer 20+ receiving yards
  • Zamir White 35+ rushing yards

Look ahead at the NFL Week 2 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.