NFL Game Previews: Wild-Card Matchups

Minnesota (+8) at New Orleans, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST

It's been two years (less nine days, counting from kickoff on this one) since Stefon Diggs Did the Thing (or Marcus Williams Failed To Do the Thing, depending on your perspective). Since then, the Vikings have signed Kirk Cousins to a huge deal, missed the playoffs in 2018 as Mike Zimmer kept up his pattern of only winning double-digits games in odd-numbered years, and generally been a good but not great team. The Saints, meanwhile, followed one heartbreak with another last year against the Rams on a blown PI call that was so egregious the league felt compelled to change the rules and made things even worse, because Roger GoodLOL. New Orleans did get some measure of revenge against Minnesota in Week 8 last season with a 30-20 win, but the stakes are obviously a lot higher this time around. The Vikes lost consecutive games and three of their last five to get here, ceding the NFC North to the Packers with a whimper, but those struggles can largely be lain at the feet of a battered backfield. Dalvin Cook missed the final two games with a shoulder injury and hasn't topped 100 scrimmage yards since Week 10, while Alexander Mattison missed his chance to prove himself in the lead role due to an ankle injury. Both RBs appear to be healthy, or at least not on the injury report, which could allow Minnesota to get back to the ground-and-pound game plan Zimmer loves so much. The Saints, on the other hand, have won three straight and six of their last seven, with the only loss coming to the NFC's No. 1 seed (the 49ers). Drew Brees and Michael Thomas set more records along the way, and Alvin Kamara woke up, allowing the offense to average a whopping 36.3 points over that seven-game stretch. A 13-win team not getting a first-round bye seems like an injustice, but if it gives the team a chance to erase the Minneapolis Miracle with a Big Easy Beatdown, it will have been worth it.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, quad)

NO injuries: CB Eli Apple (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Diggs (NO 20th in DVOA against deep throws), Bisi Johnson (NO 22nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS targets: Michael Thomas (MIN 21st in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS fades: Cook (NO fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in rushing DVOA)

NO DFS fades: Alvin Kamara (MIN third in rushing TDs allowed, ninth in rushing DVOA)

Key stat: NO is 10th in third-down offense at 42.2 percent; MIN is 19th in third-down defense at 39.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Cook manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 280 yards and two TDs to Diggs. Kamara piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Brees throws for 330 yards and two more touchdowns to Thomas (who tops 100 yards) and Tre'Quan Smith. Saints, 33-24
 

Seattle at Philadelphia (+1.5), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST

These two teams come into the game with a lot more in common than just bird nicknames and the basic color scheme on their uniforms. Both squads are absolutely gutted by injuries — the Hawks have lost their top three running backs, forcing them to bring Marshawn Lynch out of retirement (to middling results last week), while the Eagles ran out of name-brand wide receivers a while ago. Seattle lost three of its last four to tumble out of a possible first-round bye, and while the team's fans might decry the awful refereeing that arguably cost them a win over San Francisco in Week 17, that doesn't explain their no-show in Arizona the week before. Russell Wilson put together yet another outstanding campaign with a career-best 31:5 TD:INT and his third 4,000-yard season — heck, he even made Jacob Hollister relevant for a hot minute — but it's fair to wonder what he could do if he had a coach who understood he should be the focal point of the offense and not the running game. Philly took the opposite path to their NFC East title, winning four consecutive games (even if three were against the Giants and Washington), and Carson Wentz seems to have finally re-discovered the MVP groove he was in before getting hurt and watching from the sidelines as his club won a Super Bowl in 2017. Wentz became the first QB in history to throw for more than 4,000 yards without having a wide receiver top 500 yards, though Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for more than 1,500, so it's not like he was completely bereft of reliable options. Of course, Ertz is hurt and will be less than 100 percent healthy if he even suits up, but if Wentz has proven anything lately, it's that he can make do with what he has. Boston Scott probably doesn't have another three-TD game in him, but don't be too shocked if the Eagles find another hero you'd never heard of before Sunday. Full disclosure: the surface stats I normally use to determine an outcome gave me Seahawks plus six, but the teams' recent forms and a deeper dive into the numbers left me with no real route to that result that I found plausible, so I flipped it around. For what it's worth, I've only done that one other time this year, and it turned out to be the right call when the Lions beat the Giants in Week 8.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: LG Mike Iupati (questionable, neck), C Joey Hunt (questionable, lower leg), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, groin), LC Mychal Kendricks (out, knee)

PHI injuries: RB Miles Sanders (questionable, ankle), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, knee), TE Ertz (questionable, ribs), RT Lane Johnson (questionable, ankle), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, shoulder), DT Fletcher Cox (questionable, triceps), DE Derek Barnett (questionable, ankle)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf (PHI 20th in DVOA vs. WR2)

PHI DFS targets: Sanders / Scott / Jordan Howard (SEA 29th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed, 26th in rushing DVOA)

SEA DFS fades: Lynch / Travis Homer (PHI third in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in rushing DVOA)

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is third in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 66.7 percent (36-for-54) of their RZ possessions; SEA is 26th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent (32-for-52)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, 8-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Lynch manages only 50 yards but does score. Wilson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Sanders  plays and gains 60 yards, while Howard bangs in a short touchdown. Wentz throws for 300 yards and TDs to Goedert and Greg Ward. Eagles, 27-24

Buffalo (+2.5) at Houston, 43.5 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST

The Bills don't exactly head into the postseason with a lot of momentum, losers of three of their last four, but two of those defeats were at the hands of the AFC's elite (the Ravens and Pats) while the third came in Week 17 when Sean McDermott rested his starters. Even during that stretch, the defense held up — the unit's given up more than 24 points only once (Week 8 against the Eagles), finishing the regular season second in points allowed per game (16.2) to New England. That stinginess provides the offense with a puncher's chance every week, which pretty much defines Josh Allen's game — he threw for less than 200 yards a game, but accounted for 29 total touchdowns between his passing and running, sixth in the league and ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. Working in his favor is he will face a Texans secondary with three starters on the limp, potentially opening things for John Brown downfield in what on paper isn't a great matchup for the speedster. The storyline for Houston is the return of J.J. Watt from what was supposed to be a season-ending torn pectoral muscle, though it's not clear how many snaps he actually can handle in his first game action since going down in Week 8. He's not the disruptive terror he was a few years (and a few injuries) ago, but at the very least he'll give the Texans' defense an emotional lift, and even if Watt is rusty he can't make things any worse for the unit in the red zone. Deshaun Watson remains the team's best hope to advance. He's one of those five QBs to produce more touchdowns than Allen (33, to be exact), and the only defense to hold him to less than 20 points since Week 5 was Baltimore's. Getting Will Fuller V back would help, though any Houston wideout has his work cut out for him against Tre'Davious White and the Buffalo secondary.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: WR/KR Andre Roberts (questionable, foot), CB Levi Wallace (questionable, ankle)

HOU injuries: WR Fuller (questionable, groin), TE Jordan Akins (questionable, hamstring), CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (questionable, hamstring), S Jahleel Addae (questionable, Achilles)

BUF DFS targets: Allen (HOU 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 28th in passing TDs allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed to QB), Devin Singletary (HOU 27th in YPC allowed, 25th in rushing yards per game allowed, 22nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

HOU DFS targets: Texans DST (BUF 23rd in points per game)

BUF DFS fades: Brown (HOU 14th in DVOA vs. WR1, fourth in DVOA against deep throws)

HOU DFS fades: DeAndre Hopkins (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: BUF is 17th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 56.8 percent (25-for-44) of RZ possessions; HOU is 32nd in red-zone defense at 71.4 percent (35-for-49)

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop 

Singletary picks up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Allen throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Brown while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Carlos Hyde bangs out 60 yards, while Duke Johnson adds 50 combined yards. Watson throws for 260 yards and a TD to Darren Fells while also running for a touchdown, but his fourth-quarter drive for a winning field goal falls short. Bills, 21-20
 

Tennessee (+5) at New England, 44.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Titans somewhat backed into the postseason, losing in Weeks 15 and 16 before beating a Texans squad that, locked into an AFC South crown, didn't put up much of a fight, but they still have the look of The Underdog No One Wants To Face. Tennessee's midseason turnaround after handing the keys to the offense to Ryan Tannehill was nothing short of remarkable — the team averaged 16.3 points a game with Marcus Mariota under center (and that includes hanging 43 on the Browns in Week 1), but 30.4 points a game with Tannehill, never scoring less than 20 and hitting for 35 in four of his 10 starts. Reliable QB play just allowed everything to click. Derrick Henry won a rushing title despite sitting out in Week 16 to rest a sore hamstring by thundering for at least 140 yards in four of his last six games, while A.J. Brown erupted for a 25-605-5 line over his last six starts. Heck, even Tajae Sharpe had a two-TD game down the stretch. They'll all need to keep firing on all cylinders if they're going to win this one, even if it is weird and potentially ominous to even see New England play on the opening weekend of the playoffs rather than resting up on a bye. Tom Brady at times this year has looked like he's finally reaching the end of the Hall of Fame career, throwing for less than 200 yards three times in the last six games, but he also has a 10:3 TD:INT over that stretch and, frankly, he hasn't needed to open it up on offense given the way the defense has played this year. The Pats' success, in fact, has been almost directly correlated to the defense's dominance. In games where they allowed 17 points or less, they went 12-0; in games where they allowed 23 or more, they went 0-4, including that shocking Week 17 stumble against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. They also went only 3-3 against playoff teams, with the wins coming against the Bills (twice) and the Eagles, so to put it another way, they're 0-3 this year against AFC playoff teams — namely, the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans — who aren't division rivals. 

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, ankle)

NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee/shoulder), LB Jamie Collins (questionable, shoulder), CB Jason McCourty (questionable, groin)

TEN DFS targets: Henry (NE 17th in YPC allowed, 21st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS targets: James White (TEN 23rd in passing DVOA vs. RB, 22nd in DVOA against short throws), Edelman (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), N'Keal Harry (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Patriots DST (first in points per game allowed, second in takeaways, sixth in sack percentage, TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)

TEN DFS fades: Brown (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS fades: Mohamed Sanu (TEN second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: TEN is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 75.6 percent (34-for-45) of RZ possessions — the first team to finish a season above 75 percent since the Broncos in 2013. NE is fourth in red-zone defense at 48.3 percent (14-for-29), and first in fewest RZ trips allowed.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry pounds out 110 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Tannehill throws for 230 yards. White leads the NE backfield with 120 combined yards and a receiving score, while Sony Michel adds 50 yards. Brady throws for 250 yards and a second TD to Edelman. Patriots, 19-17

Last week's record: 10-6, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-8-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 793-482-5, 593-637-50 ATS, 493-511-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)