NFL Game Previews: Saturday Matchups

SATURDAY

Houston (+3.5) at Kansas City, o/u 41.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

It's a battle of division winners with nothing to play for but seeding! The Texans could conceivably climb out of the four spot in the AFC playoffs, and avoid a wild-card matchup with what will probably be the AFC North runner-up, so they might be the more motivated squad here. Houston has won three of its last four, but it's hardly been a dominant run, as they lost to the Titans and barely squeaked by the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud's coronation as the next great NFL quarterback has also been delayed — it's not that he's been bad or had a full-on sophomore slump, but his numbers have taken a step backward as injuries have wracked his receiving corps. Joe Mixon's also been slowed lately by nagging injuries, failing to reach 60 scrimmage yards in two of the last three games. Instead, it's been the defense keeping the team afloat, and aside from a bit of a no-show against Jacksonville, DeMeco Ryans' unit has been among the most aggressive in the league. The Texans are second in sacks, tied for second in takeaways, third in yards per play allowed and tied for fourth in third-down defense.

Is Kansas City's luck finally about to run out? The two-time defending champs are coming off their biggest win of the season, 21-7 over the Browns — just their third win by more than one score — but Patrick Mahomes left the game early with an ankle injury and had to be replaced by Carson Wentz. While from a narrative perspective, Wentz taking over the offense and leading the team to a Super Bowl win over Philly would be perhaps the greatest revenge in NFL history, for now Mahomes looks like he's going to gut it out, and we've seen what he can do even on a bum wheel. The receiver room could get Hollywood Brown back this week too, though I'm not sure he's exactly a big upgrade on DeAndre Hopkins or Xavier Worthy. Brown is probably just one more guy who can deliver decent but vaguely disappointing numbers in a passing game that hasn't really been elite since 2022. Kansas City has held three consecutive opponents to less than 20 points and did collect six takeaways against Cleveland last week, but they won't face Jameis Winston again. Just a few weeks ago, this was a unit that coughed up 27 points to the Panthers and 434 yards to the Raiders. That head-to-head loss to Josh Allen and the Bills could yet loom large in the battle for the AFC's top seed.

Key Info

HOU injuries: WR John Metchie (out, shoulder), LB Christian Harris (questionable, ankle), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)
KC injuries: WR Hollywood Brown (IR, shoulder), S Chamarri Conner (out, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST
KC DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce/Noah Gray

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s

The Scoop

Mixon gains 60 yards. Stroud throws for 250 yards and three TDs, two to Nico Collins and one to Dalton Schultz. Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 220 yards and a score to Worthy, but he gets sacked four times and briefly leaves the game again. Texans 24-23

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Baltimore, o/u 45.0 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

This game could well decide the AFC North. The Steelers won the first 2024 meeting back in Week 11, and another victory here clinches the division — they'll be two games up with two left to play, and they'll hold the tiebreaker. A loss, and the two rivals are tied, with Pittsburgh facing the tougher final two matchups and on a two-game losing streak. Russell Wilson's been ... good, I suppose, but hardly consistent since the Steelers' Week 9 bye. The last six games he's had one huge game against a Bengals defense that gives up big games to everyone. Other than that, he's had one strong performance in Cleveland (75.0 percent completion rate and a 9.6 YPA, but only one TD) and four games in which he failed to top a 64.0 percent completion rate, a 7.0 YPA or 205 passing yards. Not having George Pickens available has definitely hurt, but Wilson's malaise started before his top wideout got hurt. The Steelers also don't necessarily need a lot from their passing game — that's just not how the team is built, and his 5.7 YPA in the win over Baltimore was his lowest of the season — but their margin for error is a lot narrower, as last week's drubbing by the Eagles showed. Wilson will probably have to make at least a couple big plays to lock up Pittsburgh's first division crown since 2020.

The Ravens have been alternating wins and losses since early November, which doesn't bode well for this one after last week's rout of the Giants, but their pattern is actually a lot more stable than that. Baltimore has won every game this season in which it's scored at least 28 points, and lost every one in which it hasn't. Earlier in the year, the Ravens needed the offense to pop off because the secondary was a mess, but over the last month or so DC Zach Orr has finally gotten his unit pointed in the right direction, and four consecutive QBs (well, five, since the Giants used two guys last week) have failed to reach 220 passing yards against it, including Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and, yes, Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson has been doing his best not to let Josh Allen run away with the MVP race, posting an absurd 24:1 TD:INT in the last eight games, but Derrick Henry has slowed and has just one 100-yard performance and two rushing TDs in the last five games. If the defense is back to Baltimore's usual standards, the team can maybe get away with not having a dominant rushing attack. But if Henry does find that extra gear down the stretch, the Ravens could be the team absolutely no one wants to face in the postseason.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR George Pickens (out, hamstring), WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), S DeShon Elliott (out, hamstring)
BAL injuries: WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, foot), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion), WR Diontae Johnson (out, personal), EDGE Odafe Oweh (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: Van Jefferson
BAL DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin
BAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Harris manages 50 yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth. Henry busts out for 120 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. Ravens 28-20

THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 41.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Broncos are oh-so-close to clinching a playoff spot, needing only not to lose Thursday. Even if they blow it against the Bolts, a combination of losses by the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts the next three weeks will do it. Denver's won four straight, and has completely screwed up my score-generating algorithm, winning by an average score of about 35-18 but getting three defensive touchdowns along the way. Bo Nix has started to look like a rookie again, tossing five INTs in the last two games against only four TDs, and defenses seem to have figured out that Courtland Sutton is the only Bronco they really need to worry about. Not that that knowledge has helped them slow Sutton down — he's reached 70 receiving yards or gotten into the end zone, or both, in seven consecutive games while racking up a 45-601-4 line on 66 targets. DC Vance Joseph's aggressive unit makes them a potential threat to just about anyone in the playoffs, but current seeding would send the Broncos to Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, and if they fall to the seventh seed they're probably headed to Buffalo instead. In Year Two of the Sean Payton Era, they may have to settle for a "happy to be here" one and done.

The Chargers hobble into this one having dropped three of their last four games, but they're still in a wild-card spot and two games up on the trio of 6-8 teams I listed above. They also get the Pats and Raiders the last two weeks of the season, even if they're both road games, so there's no reason to panic. Yet. The injuries are piling up, though — Justin Herbert's ankle is an issue again, the running game hasn't been able to replace J.K. Dobbins, Will Dissly's set to miss a second straight game, and the secondary has taken some hits too. Herbert hasn't reached 220 passing yards in four consecutive games, managing a 64.8 percent completion rate, 6.3 YPA and 3:1 TD:INT over that stretch, and that's simply not enough to cover for a defense that just coughed up 40 points to Tampa Bay. Maybe Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack — a combined 1.5 sacks during that four-game swoon — can get going, but this isn't a good matchup for it. Nix hasn't been sacked more than twice since the Ravens got to him four times in Week 9.

Key Info

DEN injuries: RB Jaleel McLaughlin (out, quadricep)
LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), TE Will Dissly (out, shoulder), TE Hayden Hurst (IR, hip), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Troy Franklin, Broncos DST
LAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Gus Edwards/Kimani Vidal, Hayden Hurst/Stone Smartt

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Sutton and Franklin while also running in a score. Edwards grinds out 50 yards. Herbert throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Ladd McConkey and Scott Matlock, but he gets sacked five times. A fumble return TD by Bosa keeps the score somewhat close. Broncos 31-21

Last week's record: 12-4, 13-3 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2024 record: 150-74, 119-103-2 ATS, 118-105-1 o/u