NFL Game Previews: Divisional Round Matchups

SATURDAY

Houston (+9.5) at Baltimore, o/u 43.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The clock hasn't struck midnight yet on Cinderella, as the Texans routed the Browns last weekend to move through to the divisional round. It's still mind-boggling to think this team went 3-13-1 in 2022; sure, DeMeco Ryans was a great hire as head coach and they nailed the 2023 draft, but I don't think it can be overstated how incredible C.J. Stroud's rookie season has been. His numbers are fantastic, but generally speaking, single-season revivals like this one have happened with experienced hands at QB, not guys who were learning on the job. Sean Payton, for instance, took the Saints from 3-13 to 10-6 and a division title during his first season with New Orleans in 2006, but he brought in Drew Brees to be his quarterback. Andy Reid recruited Alex Smith to head Kansas City's turnaround in 2013 from 2-14 to 11-5. Even if Houston's season ends here, that takes nothing away from the campaign Stroud has had, nor how bright the team's future is. All that said, he did just tear apart maybe the only defense in the league that's a statistical match for Baltimore's, so it might be premature to close the books on the Texans' 2023 campaign before this one actually gets played, no matter how big an underdog they are.

As always when a team gets a first-round bye in the playoffs but still rests players during their regular-season finale, I wonder how they'll handle getting two weeks off. The Ravens are 13-4 after a bye under John Harbaugh, but that's just one week, and while momentum is largely a narrative fiction, body rhythms and such do have an impact – otherwise, west coast teams wouldn't struggle with early east-coast start times. The last time Lamar Jackson and the first-team offense suited up though, they annihilated the Dolphins, a week after toppling the Niners in San Francisco. In fact, the version of the Ravens led by Jackson hasn't lost in over two months. These teams did meet in Week 1, with Baltimore winning 25-9, but Houston especially is a very different squad now than they were then. The Ravens' defense has been rolling no matter who's been on the field, recording multiple takeaways in four straight games, and even with Marlon Humphrey out again their secondary should be able to handle a Texans' receiving corps that's also depleted by injuries.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Noah Brown (IR, shoulder)
BAL injuries: TE Mark Andrews (IR-R, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Zay Flowers (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Nelson Agholor (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

HOU DFS fades: Stroud (BAL first in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Robert Woods (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR2)
BAL DFS fades: Gus Edwards and Justice Hill (HOU second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

Key stat: HOU was 16th in red-zone conversions during the regular season at 54.7 percent (29-for-53); BAL was second in red-zone defense at 40.8 percent (20-for-49)

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s, 15-20 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Devin Singletary manages 60 yards. Stroud throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, finding Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Edwards leads the BAL backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 290 yards and two scores, one each to Flowers and Isaiah Likely, while also running in a touchdown of his own. Ravens 31-17

Green Bay (+9.5) at San Francisco, o/u 50.5 – Saturday, 8:15p.m. EST

Jordan Love's evolution into a true franchise QB may have slipped under the radar down the stretch, but his performance against the Cowboys in the wild-card round left no doubts. Over his last five games, Love's posted a 12:0 TD:INT with a 73.9 percent completion rate and 8.8 YPA, and the Packers have won four straight to get them to this point. The offense has also benefited from a massive effort from Aaron Jones, who's topped 100 rushing yards in all four wins with a 5.7 YPC, and Love's receiving corps should be the healthiest it's been in months. They'll need all the points they can get, though. Sure, a lot of Dallas' production last week came in garbage time, but there are only so many excuses you can make for a defense that gave up over 500 yards of offense, especially when the unit was also basically the only one all season to make Bryce Young look like a stud.

Like the Ravens, the 49ers have some rust risk here after giving a number of key players a two-week break, but at least Christian McCaffrey had a bit of a calf issue to justify his time off. He still wound up winning the NFL rushing crown by nearly 300 yards over Derrick Henry and was the only player in the league to top 2,000 scrimmage yards, and CMac's 21 touchdowns from scrimmage tied Raheem Mostert for the league lead in that category as well. He'll be the consensus first overall pick in 2024 fantasy drafts, and for good reason. For all of McCaffrey's big numbers though, Brock Purdy remains the key player on the Niners' offense, as well as the only starting QB left standing who wasn't a first-round draft pick (the other seven starters in the playoffs: Jared Goff, first overall in 2016; Baker Mayfield, first overall in 2018; C.J. Stroud, second overall in 2023; Josh Allen, seventh overall in 2018; Patrick Mahomes, 10th overall in 2017; Jordan Love, 26th overall in 2020; and Lamar Jackson, 32nd overall in 2018.) Keep that in mind when someone suggests teams like the Commanders or Patriots shouldn't be shopping for quarterbacks at the top of this year's draft. Nine of Purdy's 11 picks this season have come in his four losses, and he has a 28:2 TD:INT in his 12 wins. The Packers' secondary did show signs of life in its last couple of regular-season games, but last week's early success against the Cowboys owed more to Dak Prescott misfiring than anything else, and it's hard to have a lot of confidence in the unit here.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB AJ Dillon (questionable, neck), S Rudy Ford (IR, hamstring)
SF injuries: LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, Achilles)

GB DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Christian McCaffrey (GB 26th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed), Brandon Aiyuk (GB 28th in DVOA vs. deep throws)

GB DFS fades: Jones (SF third in rushing yards per game allowed, t-4th in rushing TDs allowed), Romeo Doubs (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2), Luke Musgrave (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF was fourth in third-down conversions during the regular season at 47.5 percent; GB was 25th in third-down defense at 41.1 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 65-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones racks up 90 yards and a TD. Love throws for 290 yards and two scores, hitting Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks. McCaffrey erupts for 160 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Purdy throws for 320 yards and three TDs, one each to Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel (who tops 100 yards) and George Kittle. 49ers 38-24

SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Detroit, o/u 49 – Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EST

The Buccaneers held serve last week at home against an Eagles squad that was a shell of its early-season self, but going out on the road isn't a big hardship. Tampa Bay had a winning record away from home this season at 5-4, and Baker Mayfield has an 18:3 TD:INT, compared to a 10:7 mark at Raymond James Stadium. Mayfield's breakout campaign was nice to see, especially for us apologists who kept saying the weather in Cleveland, and his shoulder injury, were bigger factors in his performance the last few years than most folks were acknowledging. Having Mike Evans to throw to doesn't hurt, either. Over the last six games, Mayfield's posted a 65.3 percent completion rate, an 8.2 YPA and a 13:2 TD:INT, with the Bucs winning five of those contests. The defense has posted good numbers during that stretch too, but it's been a while since they were truly challenged – and no, the version of Philly that showed up in the wild-card round doesn't count, not does a Jaguars squad with a banged-up Trevor Lawrence under center.

The Lions just squeaked by the Rams in what was by far the most competitive wild-card game last weekend, and there's an argument to be made that they got lucky – LA out-gained Detroit 425-334, but Matthew Stafford had to settle for field goals late, and that was the difference. It was still the Lions' first playoff win since 1991, and everything after this point for the team kind of feels like gravy as a result. Jared Goff only tossed one TD but was incredibly efficient, completing a season-high 81.5 percent of his passes with a season-high 10.3 YPA, and Home Goff had a QB rating nearly 20 points higher than Road Goff during the regular season. David Montgomery has gotten into the end zone in four straight games while Jahmyr Gibbs has seven TDs in the last six games, and Sam LaPorta also caught a touchdown last week while playing through a knee injury, adding another chapter to arguably the best season by a rookie tight end in NFL history. The Lions won 20-6 in Tampa when these two teams met in Week 6, but this one seems like it might feature just a touch more offense.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Chris Godwin (questionable, knee)
DET injuries: TE LaPorta (questionable, knee)

TB DFS targets: Mayfield (DET 31st in YPA allowed, 28th in passing TDs allowed)
DET DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: Rachaad White (DET first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
DET DFS fades: Gibbs (TB fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: DET was t-10th in third-down conversions during the regular season at 41.5 percent; TB was t-23rd in third-down defense at 40.9 percent

The Scoop: White picks up 70 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to Evans (who tops 100 yards) and one to Cade Otton. Montgomery churns out 60 yards and a touchdown, while Gibbs adds 50 combined yards. Goff throws for 350 yards and three TDs, one each to Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards), Josh Reynolds and LaPorta. Lions 34-27 

Kansas City (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST

It's kind of fitting that Patrick Mahomes' first career road playoff game will come in Buffalo, given how these two AFC powers have been intertwined in recent years. The Bills won a Week 14 meeting in Kansas City and have won regular-season contests in this rivalry in three straight seasons, but of course Mahomes and company have won two straight playoff clashes, including that wild 42-36 overtime classic in the 2021 divisional round. That was a very different KC offense, though. The 2023 version hasn't scored 42 points in a game all season and only reached 30 three times, and over the last six weeks – including last weekend's wild-card win over the Dolphins – Andy Reid's crew has averaging a stunningly pedestrian 20.3 points and 338.3 yards per game. Over that same stretch, the defense has given up just 15.5 points and 269.7 yards a game, and perhaps people should be referring to this as Chris Jones' team rather than Mahomes' (or T-Swift's). Chances are the QB will have to do at least one magical thing if they're going to get to the AFC title game, but this is a team that's learned it can win without consistent fireworks from the passing game.

The Bills have the longest active winning streak in the league at six games including last weekend's takedown of the Steelers, so if you're banking on momentum and current form, they've got it. That win streak started with their 20-17 victory in Kansas City too, and that's the fewest points Buffalo has scored in any of those victories. Josh Allen's been a terror on the ground during that win streak, racking up seven rushing scores to go along with his 8:5 TD:INT, but the passing game's decline does at least raise the question of what happens if a defense figures out how to contain the QB on the ground. Stefon Diggs hasn't caught a TD since Week 12, while Gabe Davis has one big game against the Chargers and only two catches for 21 yards in the other five wins combined. The Bills' attack isn't one-dimensional, as the likes of James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have all made contributions, and the unit has faced challenges of differing types from the Cowboys, Patriots and Steelers during their surge. This still seems like a team that's winning in spite of itself rather than one firing on all cylinders, but that description goes double for the squad on the other sideline.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Kadarius Toney (questionable, hip)
BUF injuries: WR Gabe Davis (questionable, knee), LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, ankle)

KC DFS targets: Justin Watson (BUF 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
BUF DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Diggs (KC fifth in DVOA vs. WR1), Shakir (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions during the regular season at 49.8 percent; KC was t-10th in third-down defense at 37.1 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the high teens, 10-15 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco grinds out 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and two TD, one each to Watson and Travis Kelce. Cook breaks out for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 240 yards and a score to Kincaid while also running in another touchdown. Bills 24-20

Last week's record: 3-3, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 o/u
2023 playoff record: 3-3, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 o/u
2023 regular-season record: 162-110, 126-136-10 ATS, 148-121-3 o/u