This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
Stat of the Week I: Teams to start 5-1 make playoffs 85 percent of the time (SD, DAL, PHI)
State of the Week II: Week 6 or later, winless teams cover the spread 63 percent of the time
New York Jets (+9.5) at New England, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Although the biggest underdog on the board, NYJ split the season series with NE four of the last six years (2008-10, 2013). Despite a pathetic 4.4 YPA, Geno Smith had them within seven of DEN in the final minutes. Not that you're starting Smith, but NE allows third-fewest FPPG to QB (13.0). Eric Decker scored in two straight and three of his last four but faces Darrelle Revis, and the Pats allow fifth-fewest fantasy points to WR. Chris Ivory, coming off his worst game this year, had just 17 combined carries weeks 5-6, a season low in consecutive games. Even with Jerod Mayo (knee) out, hard to trust Ivory until they're playing with leads (7-3 first-quarter advantage over DEN: first lead since week 2). Jace Amaro is starting to emerge, recording season highs across the board (10 catches, 12 targets; previous highs: 5, 5). ... Tom Brady went 9/10, 160 yards, two TD in the fourth quarter to help NE pull away. Just as we write him off (like last season), Brady might be back to must-start territory. After six straight games with exactly one TD and less than 250 yards, there's consecutive games with more than 250 and multiple TD. Sunday's four TD and 9.8 YPA were his most since Week 9, 2013. Brady completed passes to 10 receivers, clearly at his best when spreading the ball around. NYJ allows 20.7 FPPG to QB, second in NFL. Rob Gronkowski's two highest yardage totals have come the last two weeks (100, 94). Julius Thomas scored twice on the Jets last week; strong chance Gronk does the same. Julian Edelman rebounded from consecutive poor games (58 yards combined Weeks 4-5) and Brandon LaFell has 17-plus points in two of three games. Those two should have their way with NYJ's depleted secondary (Dee Milliner torn ACL). With Stevan Ridley (ACL) gone, who knows what Belichick does at RB; but James White, Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray are worth speculating on. Shane Vereen could simplify things by stepping up, but he's coming off a six-touch, seven-yard game and that would be too easy. Jets run defense is suddenly fallible, allowing 100-yard rushers in consecutive games after zero its previous seven (Marcel Reece, week 14, 2013).
Predictions:Tom Brady lights up the NYJ for his third straight top-7 QB week with 289 yards and three TD. Gronk records his third straight 90-yard game and snags one, Aaron Dobson and Shane Vereen the others. Revis grabs one of Geno's two picks. Ivory rushes for 69 yards and scores on 14 carries. New England 23-16.
Minnesota (+4.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: 2-4 Minnesota looked dreadful offensively in a 17-3 loss to Detroit. Teddy Bridgewater threw his first (then second, third) career INT to the NFL's No. 1 pass defense. Being sacked eight times didn't help, but the rookie must get rid of the ball faster (2.53-second average release time ninth-slowest in NFL, per PFF). Fortunately, things get easier this week with Buffalo ranked 26th against the pass (269.2 YPG). After catching just two balls on a season-high eight targets, Cordarrelle Patterson has a mere 15 fantasy points in five games since his opening-day explosion. Patterson's 33 points are one more than Travis Benjamin and the same as Stevie Johnson. Even with BUF giving up eighth-most FPPG to WR (23.8), you can't start the young lad. MIN running backs will have played the top two run defenses in football in consecutive weeks. After managing just 69 yards against Detroit's second-ranked run D, the Vikings get a Bills unit No. 1 in both rushing YPG (67.5) and FPPG allowed to opposing RB (8.7). Thankfully, the Vikings realized Jerick McKinnon is the better player, giving him the start over Matt Asiata and three times the snaps (out-touched 17-3). Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams allow few running lanes, meaning a good portion of McKinnon's yardage likely comes as a receiver again (42 of 82 yards last week). ... Serviceable thus far, Kyle Orton averages 303.5 yards per game, 7.5 YPA and completes 66.7 percent of his passes. Vastly underrated and drastically improved, Vikings D ranks eighth in total defense/sixth against the pass, but Orton's starts came against two of the top-five pass defenses (NE, DET). As expected, Sammy Watkins has been inconsistent with three games less than six points and three of 13-plus (PPR). Watkins registered season lows in targets and receptions Sunday on Revis Island, but Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn aren't on that level. With Robert Woods the clear-cut No. 2 (7-78-1, 10 targets all season highs), Mike Williams wants out - maybe NYJ or NYG? Although C.J. Spiller is undoubtedly the more talented player, Fred Jackson is the best Buffalo back (4.4 YPC to 3.4). You just can't start him now - 27 yards (1.7 YPC) over last two weeks and his 38 season points are one more than Roy Helu Jr. Buffalo needs more out of the duo (45 rush yards last week, 68 as team) against Minnesota's 20th-ranked run defense (118.2 YPG).
Predictions: Cordarrelle Patterson scores from 57 yards out, finishing with 138 YFS; finally having a big game ... on your bench. Sammy Watkins burns Rhodes for a 64-yard score en route to 7-123-1. C.J. Spiller exceeds 4.0 YPC for the second time all season with 81 yards on 13 carries, Fred Jackson vultures the TD. Vikings cover; nearly win. Buffalo, 24-23.
Atlanta (+7) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Doesn't Atlanta usually reserve terrible offensive performances for road games? Matt Ryan has thrown for 300-plus yards just once since 448 yards week 1. Still sixth among QB but just one TD each of his last two games and at least one pick in three straight. BAL is third in points allowed (16.2 PPG) but rank 27th against the pass (270.5 YPG). In his worst game all around, third-leading receiver Julio Jones (620 yards) converted just four of 12 targets and has a minor foot issue. Roddy White averages 2.5-33-0 on five targets the last two weeks, his two worst of the season. WR2 days gone, White has no more than five receptions or 73 yards in any game. Antone Smith, who entered 2014 with two career touchdowns (49 games), scored for the fifth time in six games (all 7 from 38-plus yards out). Somehow, Smith is a top-10 RB (59 points), clearly outperforming his 3.8 touches per game. Steven Jackson is coming off season-lows six touches/25 total yards, but even highs of 54 rushing/74 total yards are unimpressive. Jackson is unplayable given Smith's emergence and BAL allowing second-fewest FPPG to RB (10.2). ... Baltimore scored a franchise record 28 first-quarter points in their 48-17 destruction of TB. Joe Flacco, currently QB8, went 10/13, 196 yards, five TD (15.1 YPA) in the first 16 minutes. However, 57 of boom-or-bust Flacco's 103 points came in two games, with others between seven and 15. In those four, 4:3 TD:INT compared to 8:0 in the two breakouts. Torrey Smith recorded a season-high five catches (all others 3 or fewer) and first multi-score game since 2012 (week 10), narrowly outscoring his namesake for the second straight week. Steve Smith, third in fantasy points and fifth in yards, recorded his fourth 100-yard effort in six games (0 in previous 19). After a dreadful 2013 (6.8 YPT), Smith averages 10.4 YPT. On the strength of a ridiculous 6.4 YPC, Justin Forsett is eighth in RB scoring (67 points). Bernard Pierce seems to be second man up (out-carried Lorenzo Taliaferro 15-2). Atlanta, atrocious against RB, have allowed league-high 27.5 FPPG and 12 rushing touchdowns this season (5.3 and 5 more than any other, respectively). However, they defend tight ends second-best (4.2 FPPG), making Owen Daniels a non-factor.
Predictions: Joe Flacco reverts back to Average Joe with 13 fantasy points. Justin Forsett totals 112 yards; Pierce vultures a TD. Julio Jones catches seven for 119 yards and a touch. Matt Ryan throws for 291 yards and two TD. Antone Smith's 4-game scoring streak ends. Falcons finally play well on the road, pulling the upset. Atlanta, 21-20.
Cleveland (-5.5) at Jacksonville, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Cleveland, 3-2 for a second straight season, could easily go 6-2 with upcoming games against JAX, OAK and TB. This team can run the ball -- at least one RB in double-digit fantasy points every game. Interesting to see how much losing Alex Mack (leg), best center in the league, affects the running game. Ben Tate, averaging 4.6 YPC this season, has back-to-back games with 12-plus fantasy points. Isaiah Crowell, top-20 per-game RB, has four TD and averages 5.4 YPC (at least 4.9 in 4 of 5 games). Both are strong starts with Jacksonville allowing 20.5 FPPG to RB, T-7th-most. Brian Hoyer, 8.2 YPA 7:1 TD:INT, won't let them take another nosedive (lost 10 of final 11 in 2013) after this nice start. Opposing quarterbacks score 19.0 FPPG (t-4th-most) with 12:1 TD:INT against JAX. Jordan Cameron (shoulder) looked healthy posting 3-102-1 last week and Jags allow fourth-most points to TE (11.3 per game). ... Jacksonville, 0-6 in consecutive years, covered for the first time last week. Finally with his full array of weapons, Blake Bortles had his best game as a pro, going for more than 300 yards and turning it over just once; Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee make a big difference. With Lee (hamstring) playing limited snaps, Shorts (16) and Allen Robinson (9) dominated targets. If JAX steal this game, it's on the arm of Bortles; that running game is atrocious. Storm Johnson averaged 2.1 YPC last week and Toby Gerhart gains 2.6 per tote this season -- funny how we crushed MJD for last year's 3.4-yard average. Even against Cleveland's 30th-ranked run defense (149.6 YPG), I want no part of that. If you're desperate (Jimmy Graham replacement?), Clay Harbor has 15-plus PPR points in two of his last three.
Predictions: Brian Hoyer is turnover-free during an efficient 237-yard day, hitting Jordan Cameron for another scoring strike. Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell combine for 186 yards and two scores. Bortles throws for 268 yards and two TD, but two inopportune INT. Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson score their first professional touchdowns. Jaguars cover again, come up just short. Cleveland, 22-19.
Carolina (+7) at Green Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: One good thing came out of that tie: Cam Newton ran the ball 17 times (entered with 14 carries this season), resulting in 107 yards and propelling him to 33 fantasy points and season highs across the board. Last week's top-scoring QB averages 17.6 FPPG, eighth among all signal callers. GB's fifth-ranked pass defense (213.5 YPG) should determine whether Super Cam is truly back. Kelvin Benjamin, t-12th among WR with 60 points and 10th in targets (9.2 per), has eight-plus targets in every game. Possibly without their starting corners -- Sam Shields (knee) and Tramon Williams (ankle) were lost within span of two plays vs. MIA -- GB is ripe for the picking. Greg Olsen keeps humming along, quietly second at his position in both yards (388) and fantasy points (67). A matchup of strengths as Olsen has five TD while Packers have allowed no TD and the third-fewest points to TE (4.3 FPPG). Close to playing in Cincy, Jonathan Stewart (knee) should return after missing three games. During that time no Panther RB topped 35 yards rushing, a streak that should end against GB's 32nd-ranked run defense (154.5 YPG). ... Two minutes left needing a drive to tie/take the lead, no quarterback I'd rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Third with 117 points, Rodgers now has three-plus TD in three straight and four of five. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, second and sixth respectively, each scored touchdowns in three straight games and have four TD over that span. Touchdown-dependant Cobb leads all WR with seven but has been held to less than 60 yards five times despite scoring in five of six. One week after proclaiming Eddie Lacy back, there is serious cause for concern. James Starks received 10 touches to Lacy's 14, rotating fairly evenly, at times getting full series' to himself. You're starting Lacy with CAR allowing second-most FPPG to opposing RB and 140.2 rushing YPG (27th), but again not feeling great about it.
Predictions: Cam Newton's resurgence carries over, scoring 23 fantasy points. Kelvin Benjamin establishes season highs with 9-122-2. Aaron Rodgers throws for 313 yards and three TD. Randall Cobb catches his eighth TD, matching a career high. Eddie Lacy runs for 94 yards and scores. Carolina's DST scores negative points for fourth time in five weeks, Rodgers improves to 31-2 in last 33 home games. Green Bay, 30-22.
Miami (+3) at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Slightly improved since September, Ryan Tannehill still turns the ball over far too often (43 career, just 44 TD); something Chicago will take full advantage of (t-3rd in NFL with 14 takeaways). The Knowshon Moreno loss (ACL) moves Lamar Miller into three-down role and low-end RB1 conversation. Miller, averaging 5.2 YPC and 11 FPPG (8th among RB), excels at the goal line -- all four scores coming inside 10-yard line. With 12-plus points in three straight, Miller tries to keep it going against Chicago's top-10 run defense (103.7 YPG). Mike Wallace has yet to break out (because Tannehill throws an awful deep ball), but has at least 12 PPR points in every game and touchdowns in four of five. ... Jay Cutler, t-third with Aaron Rodgers, threw for a season-high 381 yards in Atlanta. However, that was his first game without multiple touchdowns and Miami's eighth-ranked pass defense allows just 221.6 YPG. Brandon Marshall finally looked right, establishing a season high in yards by mid-second quarter (previously 71). His 113-yard effort was his first 100-yard game in his last nine. Alshon Jeffery, just outside the top-12, has double-digit fantasy points in four straight. Martellus Bennett has just two TD in 23 career games in October. Since 2012, he's scored 10 TD (11 FPPG) in September compared to just four (4.9 FPPG) in all other months. Still fourth among TE with 60 points, but his two lowest outputs have come the last two weeks (8 points combined). Matt Forte might be the best all-purpose back in football, on pace to join Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk as the only players with 1k rushing AND receiving in the same season (399/376 tracking 1,064/1,003). Forte, No. 1 last week (27) and No. 2 for the season (89), averages just shy of 15 standard points per game.
Predictions: Lamar Miller totals 105 yards and scores. Mike Wallace records his first 100-yard game with 7-109-1. Brandon Marshall hauls in seven for 79 and a touch. Matt Forte tallies 119 YFS. Jay Cutler wins the battle of the mistake-prone quarterbacks. Chicago, 27-23.
Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: The Bengals defense has been hammered in consecutive weeks, allowing 40 PPG. Andy Dalton finished 33-of-43 (76.7 percen) 323 yards, two TD: all season highs. Even his two INT were, as he entered with just one. A.J. Green (toe) hinted at missing this game, and Marvin Jones (ankle, foot) has been placed on IR. Mohamed Sanu has filled in admirably with 70-plus yards and a TD in three of his last four, including 10-121-1 against CAR. Sanu faces a stiff test in Vontae Davis, a big reason why IND allows the second-fewest FPPG (13.7) to WR. Giovani Bernard, sixth in RB scoring (76 points), has at least 16 in three of his last four and double digits in four of five. Indy, just handled by Arian Foster, has allowed seven TD and the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. ... Colts secured their first four-game winning streak since 2012 by winning their 10th straight on TNF (next longest, NE 3). Those 24 first-quarter points were a franchise-high in the Super Bowl era. Andrew Luck is on pace for 51 total TD (3.17/game), scoring three-plus in five of six and at least two in every game. Oddly, Luck has thrown for exactly 370 yards three times, eclipsing 300 five times. Leading the NFL with 1,987 yards and 260 attempts, he's tracking 5,298 (331.2 per) and 693.3 (43.3 per game; NFL record 727, Stafford). Volume isn't hurting his efficiency, 7.6 YPA and 66.2 percent completion would be career highs (7.0, 60.2 percent previous highs). Top-scoring week 6 WR T.Y. Hilton scored his first TD in 87 receptions, spanning 14 games. Boy, does he love playing Houston -- his 223 yards (5-147 in the first quarter) were one short of Raymond Berry's franchise record, and he averages 6.2 receptions for 122.2 yards and 1.2 touchdowns in five career games. Despite a down game, Reggie Wayne drew nine targets and averages exactly that per outing. Considering Cincy has the horses in the secondary to cover Luck's myriad weapons, the Bengals present a stiff test for Indy's No. 1 offense (444 YPG, 31.5 PPG). Despite a huge gap in talent, Dwayne Allen has just two more targets (27) than Coby Fleener (25). If Fleener ever went down, Allen would be a top-5 TE. Start Allen this week with CIN allowing a league-high 12.4 FPPG to TE. Trent Richardson has 27 more carries than Ahmad Bradshaw despite averaging 1.5 less YPC (3.2 to 4.7).
Predictions: Bengals DST allows a top-7 QB (Luck, 23 pts) and scores negative points a third straight week. Richardson and No. 7 RB Ahmad Bradshaw combine for 147 yards on the ground against CIN's 29th-ranked run defense. Vontae Davis shuts down Mohamed Sanu (34 yards). Giovani Bernard finishes with 118 total yards and a score. Colts avenge last year's 42-28 loss in Cincy. Indianapolis. 28-21.
New Orleans (+3) at Detroit, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: New Orleans brings the NFL's No. 2 offense (442.8 YPG) as it tries to even its record at 3-3. Drew Brees has disappointed so far with 16.8 points per game and faces the No. 1 pass defense in football (197.2 YPG). Brees has yet to score three TD or 20 fantasy points in a game while Detroit has allowed just five TD and 9.7 FPPG to opposing QB, both fewest in the league. Furthermore, favorite target Jimmy Graham (shoulder) is now expected to miss 2-3 weeks. For an explosive athlete (4.33 40), Brandin Cooks' 8.0 YPC and 6.2 YPT are very poor. Lions are also the top DST against WR (12.8 FPPG), making Cooks and Marques Colston shaky starts, at best. Although the matchup is brutal with Detroit's second-ranked run defense allowing just 73.5 YPG, Mark Ingram (hand) could return this week with a smaller, softer cast. Without Graham, they need Ingram to pick up where he left off (6.0 YPC, 3 TD, 143 yards in opening two games). Saints need to keep this game close to expose Lions' kicking woes (5-of-15 FG, 2-of-12 over 30 yards). ... Interesting that Detroit's D, its shortfall for decades (produced zero top-10 defenses since 1993), is not just the strength of this team, but tops in the NFL in both YPG (270.7) and PPG (13.7). Matt Stafford's 185 passing yards were his fewest in victory for his career. No longer inside the top-12, Stafford has just sevn pass TD in six games and 13 points or fewer in four of his last five. This could be the week he gets back on track, NO allows 18.2 FPPG to QB (7th-most). Of course, the health of Calvin Johnson (ankle) is a big factor. Start Johnson if active with Saints fourth-worst against opposing WR (25.6 FPPG). Golden Tate, catching 73.1 percent of targets this season, was one of just three players with five receptions and 50 yards in every game before his 7-44-0 line. Joique Bell (concussion) escaped Minnesota unscathed, and Reggie Bush returns this week against his former club. Even if you're desperate, avoid Eric Ebron. The rookie averages a paltry 3.3 targets per game, has never seen more than five, and NO allows just 4.0 FPPG to TE (fewest in NFL).
Predictions: Drew Brees throws two TD for the fifth straight time to go with 267 yards. Matthew Stafford continues to be Megatron-dependant, throwing for 277 yards but two picks. A motivated Reggie Bush totals 114 yards and scores against his former mates. Golden Tate hauls in eith for 71 yards. Both offenses struggle without their top receivers, the better quarterback comes out on top. New Orleans, 20-19.
Seattle (-7) at St. Louis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Seahawks allowed 401 total yards (most since week 4 of 2013) last week, losing for the second time in their last five home games after winning Russell Wilson's first 14 as starter. Although they were only in that game by forcing three game-changing turnovers, Byron Maxwell could've put it out of reach early if he pick-sixes Romo the play before Dallas' first TD cut it to 10-7. Despite one of his worst outings as a pro, Wilson scored his second rushing TD of the year after just one in 2013 and remains a top-4 QB (19.8 FPPG). He had gone 10 games between before scoring on the ground in consecutive weeks. Percy Harvin has hit 100 scrimmage yards just once in his past 11 games (including playoffs), dating to 2012. That could change this week with STL allowing the third-most fantasy points to WR (26.6). Marshawn Lynch, still third on a per-game basis (16.4) and fourth overall (82 points), failed to score a touchdown or 11 points for the first time this year. Beast Mode will rebound against the 26th-ranked run defense allowing 139.8 YPG. ... Things aren't looking up for the Rams anytime soon, in the midst of a brutal seven-game stretch -- all against teams with 10 or more wins last season. Zac Stacy has 12 carries or less in three straight and four of five games. Before last week, not a single RB ran for even 40 yards against the Hawks' sixth-ranked run defense allowing 82.2 YPG (Eddie Lacy, Ryan Mathews, Montee Ball, Alfred Morris). That backfield is also quickly becoming a three-headed monster with Benny Cunningham (9) and Tre Mason (6) stealing touches Monday night. As expected, Austin Davis came crashing back down to earth last week with a 50.0 completion percentage, 5.6 YPA. Brian Quick was finally exposed for the average player he is, throwing up a dud after 14-plus PPR points in each of his first four. Although Richard Sherman followed around Dez Bryant after Maxwell (calf) went down, don't expect Seattle to deploy that tactic on Quick. Maybe a sign of things to come, Tavon Austin was significantly more involved against SF with a season-high seven touches. Jared Cook quietly has at least four receptions and 44 yards in every game, a sneaky play with SEA allowing 12.0 FPPG (2nd most) and a league-high seven TD to tight ends.
Predictions: Rams pass rush finally gets going (one sack through five games) against Russell Wilson, whom they sacked 11 times last year (including seven in St. Louis). Marshawn Lynch rushes for a season-high 121 yards and a touch. STL plays RB roulette, frustrating fantasy owners. Tavon Austin and Percy Harvin both turn their eight touches into 75-plus total yards. Seattle, 17-13.
Tennessee (+5.5) at Washington, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Tennessee staved off the mighty Jaguars, 16-14, for their first win since opening day. Jake Locker (thumb) missed the game, but should return this week to a fantastic matchup with WSH, which allows the most fantasy points to opposing QB (22.2). After a sluggish start, Justin Hunter has at least 77 yards in consecutive games and averages 20.9 YPC for the year. Kendall Wright, averaging just 5.9 YPT, is coming off a goose egg in a terrific matchup. You're better off dropping him to speculate on someone with upside. If you knew Bishop Sankey would carry it 18 times against the Jags' leaky run defense, 90 yards would be the minimum acceptable total. With Shonn Greene (hamstring) questionable, Sankey may have another opportunity to seize control of the starting job, but Redskins allow just 11.3 FPPG to RB, fourth fewest. ... Similar to Tennessee last week, a one-win team giving nearly a touchdown just doesn't feel right, even at home. Kirk Cousins reverted back to giving the ball away, but has at least 250 yards and 7.6 YPA in every game and 16-plus fantasy points in four of five. If Cousins every cut out the turnovers, he'd be decent. DeSean Jackson has 60-plus yard touchdowns in back-to-back games and three of four, at least 115 yards and 17 fantasy points in all three. Jackson has always been big-play dependant/inconsistent, but he's hitting them with regularity and the No. 10 WR now. Pierre Garcon has 31 yards or less in three straight and four of his last five. Last season's target leader (181) is on pace for 56 fewer looks this season, and is even more inefficient than last year (6.6 YPT). Outside of two outliers, Garcon has no more than six targets in any week. Jordan Reed is a top-5 TE when healthy, unfortunately it never stays that way for long. Alfred Morris has dealt with top-six run defenses the last two weeks, resulting in his two worst games of the year (2, 5 points) and just 60 yards on 26 carries total. Things get easier against Tennessee's 24th-ranked rush D (127.7 YPG).
Predictions: Justin Hunter roasts David Amerson for a 63-yard score. Bishop Sankey has another middling performance with 68 YFS. Pierre Garcon salvages another poor yardage day by scoring on Jason McCourty. DeSean Jackson has his way with Blidi Wreh-Wilson all day (6-97-1). Alfred Morris bounces back with 93 yards and a touchdown. Washington, 24-20.
Kansas City (+4) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: After dominating in consecutive wins (136.0-plus passer rating, 3:0 TD:INT in each), Alex Smith was terrible against San Fran. His opponent, despite being lit up by Derek Carr, enters fourth in pass yards (209.3) and second in points (15.2) allowed. Top-10 TE Travis Kelce is quickly becoming Smith's best receiver, averaging 10.1 YPT and scoring in three straight games. SD allows just 4.5 FPPG to TE (fourth fewest), but hasn't played a single top-18 fantasy TE yet. Unlikely to replicate Andre Holmes' performance against SD, Dwayne Bowe has exactly three catches for 42 yards or less in three of four games. He can be single-covered by Brandon Flowers or rookie Jason Verrett, who clinched Sunday's game with his first career INT. Jamaal Charles is absolutely back, rushing for more than 5.0 YPC in each of his last two games. Although ranked ninth, the Chargers looked vulnerable against the run (DMC 5.7 YPC). ... Philip Rivers' sensational play continues, three TD in three straight and four times in his last five games. The 2013 Comeback Player of the Year is in a dead heat with DeMarco Murray and Andrew Luck for MVP. Keenan Allen, dangerously close to droppable in standard leagues, can't be started now. Allen has three catches and 27 yards or fewer in three of his past four. At this point, he needs the Eddie Royal rib injury to be serious (it isn't) for fantasy relevance. On the flipside, Malcom Floyd has at least 72 yards or a touchdown in five of six games. After scoring 7plus TD every year from 2004-2012 before falling to four in 2013, third-highest scoring TE Antonio Gates already has six this season. Branden Oliver has scored and surpassed 100 rush/124 total yards in back-to-back games, giving Ryan Mathews all the time he needs to rest that knee. Oliver, 16th in RB scoring in extremely limited action, has carved out a role even when Mathews returns (think Danny Woodhead plus). His stellar play should continue against KC's 23rd-ranked run defense (127.4 YPG).
Predictions: Jamaal Charles outshines Oliver with 134 total yards and two TD. Travis Kelce scores for the fourth straight game. Philip Rivers throws for 271 yards and two scores, helping Keenan Allen finally reach the painted area. After starting his career 13-0, Andy Reid drops his third straight coming off the bye week. Quarterback play is the difference. San Diego. 24-21.
New York Giants (+6) at Dallas, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: So much for the revitalized Giants offense, which scored 30-plus points in three straight wins before being shut out Sunday night (35 PPG in victories, 9.3 PPG in losses). The shine came off Eli Manning as well, scoring six points after four straight games of 15-plus. His line, which allowed eight sacks against PHI, has to better protect fantasy's No. 11 QB. Without top wideout Victor Cruz (IR), LSU products Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. need to step up. DAL allows just 14.0 FPPG to WR, fourth fewest in the league. Although horribly inefficient (8.8 YPC, 5.0 YPT), Rueben Randle has seen at least nine targets in his last four games. Still ninth in TE points, Larry Donnell has been ice cold for two weeks (1 catch, 6 yards total), but faces a Cowboy defense allowing the third-most points to TE (11.8/game). Andre Williams, whose first pro start didn't go well (58 total yards, 3.6 YPC), is the key to the Giants success. ... By beating the champs in Seattle, Cowboys secured their first 5-1 start and five-game winning steak since 2007. Clearly the better team Sunday, Dallas gained 400-plus total yards for the third straight game (first time since 1983). Remember, though, this is exactly the type of game they typically lose -- coming off a huge win, after everyone buys in, favored at home, etc. Also, their defense (32nd in 2013, 15th this season) is similarly poor on a per-play basis to last year's group, but the offense has kept them off the field (34:52 average TOP, 2nd in NFL, 6 minutes more than last season). Their O-line, maybe best in the NFL, will be without Doug Free for the better part of a month. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray, my current MVP, joined Jim Brown (1958) as the only players with six straight 100-yard games to start a season. With 159 carries for 785 yards (43 and 243 ahead of closest competitor), Murray is pacing 2,093 yards (130.8 per game) on 424 rushes (26.5 per). Only three players since 1970 had more carries through six games, Ricky Williams (161), Eddie George (165) and O.J. Simpson (171). NY is fresh off allowing 203 rushing to Philly, 149 courtesy of LeSean McCoy. Tony Romo, sitting just inside the top 12, has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight and 10 TD to two INT since his opening-day giveaway party. However, Giants lead the league with 10 interceptions, and we know "Bad Romo" can come out at any time. Outside the battle in the trenches, the key matchup is Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara. Those two form perhaps the best CB tandem in football, and both Cowboy receivers are among the top-11 fantasy WR. Despite scoring for the first time this season, Jason Witten is a matchup-based play at this stage of his career, and NY allowed just 3.8 FPPG to TE before last week.
Predictions: Dez Bryant starts a new TD streak (four-gamer snapped last week) with 8-91-1. Murray's miraculous run continues, toting 19 times for 101 yards. Andre Williams rushes for 83 yards and a score. In an expanded role, Odell Beckham Jr. eclipses the century mark for the first time with six grabs for 113 and a touch. Donnell ends the doughnut parade, scoring his first tub since the three-TD night. Cowboys make it four of five against their division rival but Giants cover, which they've done 62 percent of the time on the road in Tom Coughlin era. Dallas, 27-24.
Arizona (-3.5) at Oakland, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Cardinals are the only NFL team yet to throw a pick, a big part of their +8 TO ratio and division-leading 4-1 start. While unspectacular, Carson Palmer played for the first time since week 1 and looked no worse for wear. Palmer has at least 250 yards (277 per game) and two TD in each of his two starts. After being left for dead, Larry Fitzgerald reached the painted area for the first time in eight games, catching all six targets for season highs 6-98-1. Fitz is probably a sell-high candidate with Palmer targeting him so infrequently -- 10 of his 81 pass attempts (12.3 percent) intended for Fitzgerald. Michael Floyd has been wildly inconsistent thus far with two games over the century mark to go with two of less than 20 yards, something that should change with his QB back. Andre Ellington, top-10 RB on a per-game basis with 11.2 FPPG, will look to jumpstart a stagnant AZ running game against OAK, which allows the fourth-most points to opposing RB (21.0 per). Ellington has been held to less than 3.5 YPC in three straight, 3.8 for the season. ... Derek Carr, coming off the best performance by a rookie signal caller this year, threw for a career-high 283 yards and doubled his season TD total (just 4 entering Week 6). AZ struggles against quarterbacks, allowing 18.4 FPPG to QB, sixth most in the NFL. Andre Holmes, No. 2 WR last week with 24 points, now has three TD in his last two outings (1 in 20 career games previously). James Jones has scored in three of five games. With the Cardinals allowing the second-most points to opposing WR (27.8 per game), Patrick Peterson looks like the most overrated corner in football. He wanted to be the highest-paid CB in football; needs to start playing like it. Last week was the first time in more than a calendar year (Week 4, 2013) Darren McFadden surpassed 3.8 YPC (5.7). His 80-yard rushing total was the highest since Week 2 last season against JAX. However, Arizona is treacherous against the run, third in both rush YPG allowd (75.8) and FPPG to opposing RB (10.8).
Predictions: Andre Ellington compiles 131 total yards and a score. Carson Palmer throws for 274 yards against his former team. Larry Fitzgerald scores for the second week in a row. Darren McFadden is swallowed up the AZ run D, managing a measly 38 yards. Derek Carr struggles mightily, in part because Patrick Peterson finally plays like an All-Pro. Raiders nearly pulled out their first win last week, but they always play SD tough. Cards go into the Black Hole and cover. Arizona, 20-16.
San Francisco (+6.5) at Denver, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Two of the best in the business go at it in a potential Super Bowl previe -- what a Sunday night tilt. San Fran has more wins in three-plus seasons under Jim Harbaugh (40-13-1) than the seven previous (2004-2010: 39-73). Colin Kaepernick, fourth in QB scoring last week and seventh this season, dominated STL for his third career 300-yard game. Anquan Boldin, between six and nine targets every week, also had his best game (7-94-1), hitting pay dirt for the first time. Michael Crabtree's struggles continue -- catching just four of 12 targets for 65 yards combined the last two weeks. Held to less than 50 yards in four of six games, Crabtree averages 10.5 YPC/6.7 YPT (both career lows). Denver allows the third-fewest FPPG (13.8) to opposing WR. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde disappointed against STL, combining for 52 yards on 27 carries (1.9 YPC). Hyde, sporting a 3.2-yard average, has 13 yards or less in three games and 26 or fewer in four of six. Both runners are shaky starts against Denver's fourth-ranked run defense that allows just 76.8 YPG. Vernon Davis, just six points since week 1, showed signs of rust Monday but should improve with time. ... Peyton Manning is coming off his lowest yardage total of the season (237) but has two-plus TD in all five games and three-plus in four of five. Manning scores 23.0 FPPG (2nd to Luck) but San Fran allows just 12.3, second fewest in NFL. Julius Thomas is on pace for 29 scores with a league-high nine TD, it really seems "too easy" like he says. Demaryius Thomas is averaging 9-175-1.5 on 14 targets over his last two games after the slow start (4.3-47-0.3 per in first three). Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker are coming off their worst games this year, combining for just four catches and 46 yards on seven targets, but should bounce back nicely with Jimmie Ward (quadriceps) likely unavailable. Ronnie Hillman has surpassed 4.0 YPC his last two games against tough competition (NYJ, AZ) and could permanently steal the starting job with Montee Ball struggling all year long (3.1 YPC). Although the matchup is brutal with 49ers fifth in rushing YPG (79.8) and RB fantasy points (11.3) allowed, Hillman is coming off his first career 100-yard game and may avoid Patrick Willis (turf toe).
Predictions: Colin Kaepernick follows up his 28-point effort with 299 total yards (41 rushing) and two scores. Frank Gore musters just 44 yards on 17 carries. Aqib Talib shuts down Crabtree. Peyton Manning throws for 291 yards and three TD to break Brett Favre's record. No. 509 goes to Wes Welker, his first. Emmanuel Sanders also scores for the first time, while Julius Thomas is finally held without a TD. Niners keep it close and cover. Denver, 27-23.
Houston (+3.5) at Pittsburgh, Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Comments: Houston allowed no first-quarter points through five games before Indy jumped out 24-0 in the opening period Thursday, a hole the Texans nearly dug themselves out of. Interestingly, third-highest scoring RB Arian Foster received 20 carries again (4 times in 5 games played) even though HOU trailed by double digits throughout. Foster has more than 100 yards rushing in four of five games, doing so and scoring twice in each of his last two. He impact is undeniable, Texans are just 1-11 without him in the lineup over the years (26-16 with). Andre Johnson snapped the longest scoring drought of his career, nabbing his first TD in 77 receptions and outscoring his teammate for the first time this year. DeAndre Hopkins caught just one pass on two targets after entering Week 6 a top-10 fantasy WR. Despite being less efficient, Johnson has more targets than Hopkins in every game and 21 more this season. ... Pittsburgh has forced just six turnovers so far, while HOU leads the league with 14 takeaways. Steelers have to contend with J.J. Watt, Jared Crick, Whitney Mercilus and possibly Jadeveon Clowney (knee, targeting Week 7 return). If there's a better defensive player than Watt walking this earth, it's someone of whom I do not know. Watt has scored three ways this season and is a constant disruption on every snap (7 tackles, 3 passes defensed, 2 sacks, fumble recovery TD against IND). Ben Roethlisberger, one TD or less in two straight and four of six games, faces Houston's 28th-ranked pass defense (271.5 YPG) freshly diced by Andrew Luck for 370 yards and three TD. Top-scoring fantasy WR Antonio Brown feasts on a below-average secondary that another slight, speedy receiver (T.Y. Hilton) just shredded for 223 yards. Brown, the only player with five-plus receptions and 50-plus yards (actually has at least 84 in each) every game, extended his NFL record to 22 consecutive. It's time for the Martavis Bryant era to begin; Markus Wheaton has been awful for more than a month (5 points or fewer in four straight, 6 or fewer every game since Week 2), and Bryant offers freakish athleticism and huge upside. Le'Veon Bell, a top-5 RB in spite of just one TD all year, has 100-plus total yards in every game of 2014 and eight of his last nine dating to last season.
Predictions: Running backs shine with both Foster and Bell topping 120 from scrimmage and scoring. Mr. Consistent, Antonio Brown, delivers again with 8-114-1. HOU continues to feed Andre Johnson, who hauls in 8 for 89. Texans prove the more complete team, but Steelers are at home with a better quarterback. Pittsburgh 23-20.
