NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Oakland (+3) at Kansas City, 46 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 pm EST

Comments: Nobody figured this would be the game that potentially decides the AFC West, but here we are. The Chiefs are one game back of the Raiders but already own a win over them, so if they can sweep the season series it gives them that crucial tiebreaker edge should the two teams have the same record at season's end. Oakland scores just 10 points in that Week 6 loss, but it's the last time anyone managed to stifle Derek Carr and company. Since then, they've reeled off six straight wins, averaging 32.2 points a game and only failing to score at least 30 once during that streak, when they "only" scored 27. The Chiefs' defense is certainly opportunistic (just ask the Falcons), leading the NFL in takeaways with 25, but doesn't quite qualify as stingy – they've given up 20.2 points per game (ninth in the league) but are sitting 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (263.0) and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (121.9). Without those turnovers to flip the field, KC's penchant to give away a lot of real estate will eventually come back to haunt them. Whether that happens Thursday or not is the question. ... Not that the Raiders' defense has anything to brag about. The Chiefs are 29th in total yards allowed per game (384.9), but the silver and black do them one better, clocking in at 30th with 389.7 per game, and in almost the exact same proportion: 124.8 yards on the ground (29th) versus 264.8 through the air (24th). Kansas City will get Jeremy Maclin back from his groin injury, but the big revelation while Maclin was sidelined has been Tyreek Hill. Over the last four games, Hill's turned 34 targets into 28 catches, 247 yards and a TD, adding a rushing score and a return touchdown to the mix as well. Those aren't elite numbers, but he's more explosive than anyone else in the KC offense, so if the Chiefs are going to keep pace with the Raiders' attack, they'll need to find a way to get the ball into Hill's hands as often as possible. ... Justin Houston is also healthy again for Kansas City, recording four sacks in the last two games, but Oakland's o-line has only given up 12 sacks all year so he'll have his work cut out for him. In fact neither team reports any crucial injuries, with Dontari Poe (questionable but likely to play through a back issue) and Karl Joseph (out with a toe injury) the biggest names on their respective reports. 


Predictions: Latavius Murray piles up 110 combined yards and a TD, while Jalen Richard also gets into the end zone. Carr throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford. Spencer Ware answers with 90 combined yards and a score, while Alex Smith throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Maclin. Hill returns a kick to the house, but it's not enough. Raiders 31-27

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (+2), 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Steelers have been maybe the streakiest team in the league this season, opening the campaign by winning four of five, then dropping four straight before winning their last three. While that kind of pattern is great when the arrow is pointing up, their last losing streak kicked off with a road defeat against an AFC East foe, which isn't an encouraging omen. The Bills also feature a tough pass defense, sitting 10th in QB rating against (88.1), tied for sixth in TD passes allowed (15) and third in sacks with 33, so Ben Roethlisberger will have his work cut out for him. He could also be fighting the elements as well as the Buffalo secondary, as forecasts call for flurries and healthy gusts of wind Sunday afternoon, potentially negating any deep routes. (Let's not forget the 167 yards and zero TDs he managed in Cleveland a few weeks ago, although the wind won't be that extreme.) Fortunately, Big Ben's got a couple of great weapons in the short passing game, as Ladarius Green is coming off a huge performance and Le'Veon Bell is still Le'Veon Bell. The Bills are also fairly vulnerable to tight ends, sitting 26th in DVOA against them. ... Sammy Watkins' three catches on nine targets for 38 yards is hardly impressive, but the most important number for him was the 49 snaps he played, basically double the workload he got in Week 12. As he gets healthier, he should be able to provide the Bills with the dynamic threat on the outside they've desperately needed, desperation which showed in their attempt to get any kind of value out of Percy Harvin. Pittsburgh's pass defense is statistically nearly identical to Buffalo's – a handful of sacks less are balanced out by a slightly better YPA allowed – but Tyrod Taylor is no Roethlisberger, so any additional weapons he has at his disposal can only help. The Steelers' athletic linebacking corps may also be able to contain Taylor in the pocket. He's run for a score in five of the last six games, but Pittsburgh has yet to allow a QB to run in a TD this season, and only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to quarterbacks than their 82. ... Watkins (foot) is officially questionable, as are Robert Woods (knee), Charles Clay (knee) and Ronald Darby (concussion), but all four should suit up for Buffalo on Sunday. Pittsburgh reports no significant injuries.

Predictions: Bell gains 140 combined yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Green. LeSean McCoy also has a big game with 120 yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown, while Taylor throws for 180 yards and a second TD to Watkins. Bills, 20-17

Denver (+1) at Tennessee, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Trevor Siemian should have read the fine print on his deal with the devil. Every time he has a big game (well, both times so far), he's gotten hurt the next week, preventing him from building up any sort of momentum. The injury that cost him his Week 13 start was just a sprained foot though, and while he's listed as questionable he should be under center Sunday, especially considering how lost Paxton Lynch looked against the Jags last week. The Titans have been middle of the pack against the pass overall but have allowed 21 TD passes, tied for 10th-worst in the league, so there could be opportunities for Siemian to exploit, assuming he's healthy enough to do so. ... Marcus Mariota, on the other hand, just keeps rolling merrily along, tossing multiple TD passes in eight straight games heading into last week's bye with a 21:3 TD:INT over that stretch. That's obviously not going to be so easy against a Broncos defense that's first in the NFL in QB rating against (68.6) and TD passes allowed (10, tied with the Cardinals). In fact, Denver is on something of an "Embarrass the Young Guns" tour in 2016, already stifling Jameis Winston, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles in their own buildings – those three QBs combined for just 544 yards and an 0:4 TD:INT in their starts against the Broncos this year. ... So why are the Titans even favored here? Their running game. Denver's 28th in the rushing yards allowed per game at 122.8, and DeMarco Murray seems nearly recovered from the toe injury that held him to 43 yards against the Bears in Week 12. Even if he's still limited though, Derrick Henry's big showing in that game (60 yards and a TD on just eight carries) indicates he won't let that soft Broncos run defense off the hook if he's called upon again.

Predictions: Devontae Booker gains 50 yards, while Justin Forsett chips in 30. Siemian throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Emmanuel Sanders. Murray glides for 90 yards and a score, while Henry also bangs in a TD. Mariota gets held to 170 yards without a touchdown. Titans, 17-13

Washington at Philadelphia (+1), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: For a hot minute there, Washington looked like they were going to make some noise in the NFC East, but consecutive road losses to the Cowboys and Cardinals have kicked them down into the wild card morass. Kirk Cousins had his worst game in Arizona since Week 5, but that still resulted in a respectable 7.3 YPA and decent fantasy numbers. The Eagles won't be anywhere near as big a challenge for him and while they should be geared up for a divisional fight, their performance last week against Andy Dalton (and not, more importantly, against A.J. Green) certainly looked like a team that's mentally already on the golf course. ... Philly's lost three straight games by at least two touchdowns, and while their defense gets some of that blame, their offense has been the biggest culprit. Carson Wentz has an ugly 3:6 TD:INT over that stretch, while Wendall Smallwood's 48 rushing yards in Week 11 against Seattle is the best performance by any of their RBs on the ground during the losing streak. Ryan Mathews, who missed the last two games with a knee injury, is expected back Sunday though, and Washington's run defense has allowed a league-worst 17 touchdowns. If the Eagles are going to pull this one out, they'll need the Mathews who gashed the Falcons for 109 yards and two scores in Week 10 to re-emerge. ... Jordan Matthews (ankle) and Dorial Green-Beckham (abdomen) are both less than 100 percent, putting even more pressure on the Eagles' backfield to produce. For Washington, Jordan Reed is still hampered by his shoulder injury, but may attempt to gut it out anyway.

Predictions: Rob Kelley bangs out 80 yards and a TD. Cousins lights it up, throwing for 320 yards and touchdowns to Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson. Mathews provides 60 yards and a score, while Smallwood also gets into the end zone. Wentz throws for 220 yards and a TD to Zach Ertz. Washington, 31-17

Arizona (+1) at Miami, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Cards have been maddeningly inconsistent this season, but one thing you can count on that they aren't very good on the road. Their one away win was against the inept 49ers, and even including that 12-point victory, their average result outside of University of Phoenix Stadium is a 30-23 loss (30.4-22.8, to be precise). Now think about how badly they'd be losing if it wasn't for David Johnson. DJ is always a safe bet for a big day, but that bet's even safer this week, as the Dolphins sit 30th in rushing yards allowed per game at 130.3. Just don't expect his production to change the final result. ... After an impressive 9:1 TD:INT over the previous five games, Ryan Tannehill remembered who he was last week against the Ravens, throwing three picks and being generally disappointing. An Arizona defense that ranks third in QB rating against (76.6) and is one of just two teams in the NFL with more INTs than TDs allowed would seem like the perfect opponent to further kick him when he's down, but there is a silver lining to that looming cloud for Miami. Both Patrick Peterson (knee) and Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder) are less than 100 percent, although both should play through their injuries. Of course, Peterson still picked off Kirk Cousins last week despite the injury. ... It could be a miserable afternoon in Miami on Sunday, with current forecasts calling for drizzle and winds up to 20 mph, so don't be too surprised if the passing games get shelved and both teams try to win the game in the trenches and on the ground.

Predictions: Johnson slides for 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Carson Palmer throws for 210 yards and a TD to J.J. Nelson. Jay Ajayi splashes out 90 yards and two scores. Tannehill throws for 180 yards and no TDs, but also avoids making too many mistakes. Dolphins, 20-17

Minnesota at Jacksonville (+3.5), 39 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Vikings continue to play excellent defense, and it continues to not matter as their offense simply can't get the job done. Minnesota's lost six of their last seven to fall two games back of the Lions in the NFC North, although they're still in the wild card hunt. Getting any kind of production from their running game would help, but Jerick McKinnon hasn't topped 44 rushing yards since Week 4, while Matt Asiata hasn't done it since Week 7. You can point your finger at the offensive line if you want, but the results are the same either way. The Jags do give up plenty of yards on the ground, but it's mostly a product of game flow as their YPC allowed is a semi-respectable 12th in the league. The Vikes don't seem likely to get the big lead necessary to follow that script. ... Blake Bortles having a terrible game against the Broncos' secondary last week was about the most predictable result possible, but things don't get any easier for him Sunday. Denver's 68.6 QB rating against tops the league, but Minnesota's second at 75.7. It's not like he has many weapons left to throw to anyway – Allen Hurns (hamstring) and Julius Thomas (back) are both out for the Jags, leaving Mr. Disappointment Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee as Bortles' only real targets. ... Jacksonville's backfield isn't in much better shape, with Denard Robinson (ankle) also out and Chris Ivory (hamstring) a possible game-time decision. The Vikings report no crucial injuries.

Predictions: Asiata leads Minny's backfield with 60 yards and a score. Sam Bradford throws for 220 yards and a TD to Stefon Diggs. T.J. Yeldon grinds out 50 yards, while Bortles throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Robinson and Ben Kovacks. Vikings, 17-14

Houston (+6) at Indianapolis, 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Welcome to the AFC South, the only division in football without a team above .500. That should change after this week, but I wouldn't put it past the Colts and Texans to tie, just to be annoying. (The team that's the best in the division by most advanced metrics, the Titans, doesn't have an easy matchup either). Houston had their chance to run away with the title, but they've now dropped three straight and their only road win on the season was against the feeble Jaguars, so that window may have been slammed closed on their fingers. Frankly it's surprising they're even still in contention, given the loss of J.J. Watt and the mostly brutal play of Brock Osweiler. He has only had one game this season with a YPA above 6.9, and that came way back in Week 2. Indy's defense is fairly terrible against the pass though, sitting 26th in QB rating against (99.3), so he might be able to put together one of his rare adequate performances Sunday. ... Andrew Luck sure does like hammering a matchup that's working, doesn't he? Last week's three-TD explosion by Dwayne Allen was actually the second time this season Colts TEs have had a three-TD game (Jack Doyle caught two to Allen's one in Week 1), and while a Texans defense that ranks second in DVOA against tight ends isn't going to allow a repeat, Luck will probably just find some other soft spot to exploit. That 6.9 YPA mark Osweiler has so much trouble topping? Luck's only dropped below it three times this year, and one of those games was on the road against the Broncos. As long as his shoulder holds up, he should be able to dissect a Houston secondary that's been middle of the pack all year. ... Indy reports no big injuries on offense, but Robert Mathis (biceps), Clayton Geathers (neck) and Patrick Robinson (groin) will all be missing from their starting 11 on defense. Houston's also beat up on defense, but both Jadeveon Clowney (elbow) and Brian Cushing (back) should play Sunday. Lamar Miller (ankle/ribs) isn't on the injury report, but hasn't looked 100 percent for a few weeks now.

Predictions: Miller manages 50 yards. Osweiler throws for 280 yards and TDs to DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Frank Gore grinds out 70 yards and a score, while Luck throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to T.Y. Hilton (who hauls in 120 yards) and one to Phillip Dorsett. Colts, 31-20

San Diego (+1.5) at Carolina, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Philip Rivers' end zone interception last week, as the Chargers were driving for the tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter, sums up the team's season in a nutshell. For the most part they've played well, as reflected in their plus-15 point differential, but their mistakes always seem to come at the worst possible time. A trip across the country to face a young Panthers' secondary could be a productive one for Rivers – their 22 passing TDs allowed is tied for sixth-worst in the league – but they're also tied for fifth with 12 INTs. ... At least Rivers is producing. Over his last three games, Cam Newton has averaged 206.7 passing yards with a 44.7 percent (!!!) completion rate and a 4:1 TD:INT. He isn't even running, managing only 25 rushing yards over that three-game stretch, although he did score a TD. You can't blame the level of competition either, as two of those games were against the Saints and Raiders. Last week's ridiculous sartorial punishment got all the media attention, but maybe Ron Rivera should be benching Cam because he sucks right now, not because he wore white after Labor Day or whatever. (Of course, when Derek Anderson throws a pick in his only pass attempt while Newton's on the sidelines, it makes it tougher to justify switching things up at QB.) The Chargers have been shockingly tough against the pass this season, leading the NFL with 15 INTs and sitting sixth in QB rating against (83.9) even with Jason Verrett on IR, but that likely won't matter one way or the other. If Cam puts his cape back on, San Diego won't be able to stop him, but if he doesn't then he can make anyone look like the '85 Bears. ... The Panthers could get Luke Kuechly (concussion) back this week, but now Charles Johnson (hamstring) is out. Brandon Flowers (concussion) is also out for the Bolts.

Predictions: Melvin Gordon gains 90 combined yards. Rivers throws for 240 yards and TDs to Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates. Jonathan Stewart runs for 60 yards and a touchdown. Newton throws for 210 yards and a TD to Devin Funchess, while Kuechly celebrates his return with a pick-six. Panthers, 24-20

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5.5), 43 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Apparently, A.J. Green picked the right time to get hurt. Last week's game against the Eagles proved to be no challenge for the Green-less Bengals, mainly because Philly looked like they've packed it in for the year, and now Cinci gets the winless Browns. Even so, you have to wonder how much motivation the Bengals themselves have at this point. If they somehow win out they'll still only be 8-7-1, which means it would take a miracle for them to sneak into the second wild card spot (the Broncos, for instance, would have to lose all their remaining games.) On paper, this should be a romp. Cleveland is dead last in QB rating against at 103.6, and in a normal year their 140.6 rushing yards allowed per game would also be last in the league (thanks, Niners!). They don't play the games on paper, though. ... Robert Griffin's off IR and back under center for the Browns, but they switch things up at QB basically every week so this isn't really the biggest news in the world. Griffin looked pretty bad in Week 1 before he got hurt, so there's little reason to expect much from him after such a long layoff, but while he was out Terrelle Pryor has established himself as a legit No. 1 WR, something Griffin didn't have at his disposal to begin the year. Cinci's defense does sit ninth in QB rating against, but that's mainly fueled by their 14 INTs (tied for second in the league) as the rest of their numbers against the pass are merely fair. The last time these two teams met, Cody Kessler started the game for Cleveland but Kevin Hogan finished it, and the two rookies combined for 182 yards, zero TDs and two INTs. That's a low bar for Griffin to clear, but there's no guarantee he'll be able to do it. ... Forecasts call for some flurries and a bit of wind Sunday, which could impact the passing games.

Predictions: Jeremy Hill has his best game since Giovani Bernard got hurt, bashing out 90 yards and a TD. Andy Dalton throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Tyler Eifert and Tyler Boyd. Isaiah Crowell also has a strong game, rushing for 80 yards and a score, while Griffin runs in a TD of his own and throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Pryor. Browns, 24-21

Chicago (+8) at Detroit, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Matt Barkley's big game against the Titans two weeks ago proved to be a mirage, as he put together a fairly miserable line in Week 13's win over the 49ers. A game against the Lions seems like one he should do better in – they're 30th in QB rating against at 101.9 – but given the way Detroit just handcuffed Drew Brees in his own house, that rating may be a tad misleading. In fact, it's been six games since the Lions allowed more than 20 points, a stretch during which they are 5-1, and the best any quarterback has done against them in that stretch was Kirk Cousins' 301 yards and one TD back in Week 7. Barkley will have his work cut out for him. ... Detroit's defense needed to step up, because the offense certainly isn't dominating. Despite the team's reputation for big-time aerial production, Matthew Stafford is averaging only 262.3 passing yards with seven total TDs over that six-game stretch, and his only 300-yard game came last week in New Orleans. His main contribution to the team's success has been to take care of the ball, as he's thrown only one pick during that time. The Bears shouldn't give him a tough time in that department either, as their five INTs on the season puts them 30th in the league. ... Stafford may not have his usual assortment of option available Sunday. Theo Riddick (wrist), Dwayne Washington (ankle), Marvin Jones (quad) and Eric Ebron (knee) are all questionable on the injury report, although all four were able to practice, even if just in limited fashion, this week. Barkley's receiving corps is also in rough shape, with Eddie Royal doubtful due to a toe injury and Marquess Wilson (groin) and Josh Bellamy (shoulder) both questionable as the team counts down the minutes until Alshon Jeffery's suspension is over.

Predictions: Jordan Howard rushes for 80 yards and a TD. Barkley throws for 220 yards but gets held out of the end zone. Riddick plays, but Zach Zenner leads the Lions backfield with 50 yards. Stafford throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, two to Golden Tate and one to Anquan Boldin. Lions, 27-13

N.Y. Jets (+2.5) at San Francisco, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: From the outside, whether you're a fan or an expert or whatever, it's really easy to dismiss a team as "giving up on the season" or "not trying" (heck, I've done it in this very column), but it's rarely that simple. For an athlete to reach the highest level of his sport, they need a drive and an ego beyond that of mere mortals, and people like that aren't wired to just lay down or give up when the going gets tough. All that said, it was impossible not to come away from last Monday's game against the Colts thinking the Jets had given up. Even for non-fans of the team, it was a painful performance to watch, especially from the defense. The loss cost Ryan Fitzpatrick his starting job, and the team will give the final month of the season to Bryce Petty to see if he factors into their future plans. (Spoiler alert! He won't.) San Fran's pass defense isn't as bad as their incomprehensibly awful run defense but it's still bad – they're 27th in QB rating against at 99.8 – but Petty has yet to show anything in his 59 NFL pass attempts to indicate he can take advantage of a weak matchup. ... The 49ers continue to be the anti-Cowboys, losing 11 straight after winning their opener, but last week's loss to the Bears might have been the worst one yet. Colin Kaepernick got yanked after completing just one of five pass attempts through three quarters. Five attempts! Maybe he was keeping the ball on the run option a little too much, but that kind of pitiful volume is on the coaching staff, not the guy running the plays being called. Kaepernick showed in Week 12 that he can light up a vulnerable secondary, and there's no secondary more vulnerable than the Jets', but Chip Kelly needs to prove he can put his QB in a position to succeed on a regular basis before I'll believe Kaepernick is capable of another fantasy eruption. ... The Niners come into this one mostly healthy. The Jets' defensive line is a little banged up, with Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) questionable and nose tackle Steve McLendon (hamstring) out.

Predictions: Matt Forte gallops for 130 yards and two TDs. Petty throws for only 170 yards, but does find Brandon Marshall for a score. Carlos Hyde picks up 60 yards, while Kaepernick runs for 40 yards and a TD, and throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Rod Streater. Jets, 21-17

New Orleans (+2.5) at Tampa Bay, 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: OK, sure, Drew Brees did throw for more than 300 yards for the fourth time in the last five games in Week 13, but a 0:3 TD:INT at home against the Lions is the kind of disappearing act that would make David Blaine jealous. Technically, the 5-7 Saints are still alive in both the NFC South race and the wild card picture, but the Buccaneers are two games ahead of them in both, making this game basically a must-win for New Orleans. Tampa's pass defense is in the bottom half of the league, ranking 29th in YPA allowed (7.8) and tied for sixth-worst in TD passes allowed (22), so Brees should get opportunities for redemption Sunday. ... The Bucs are now tied with the Lions for the second-longest active win streak in the league (four games), and like Detroit that surge has taken them into division title contention. They haven't been feasting on also-rans either, as that streak includes a road win in Kansas City and a home victory over the Seahawks. Jameis Winston hasn't been lights out during their win streak, posting a 6:3 TD:INT, but he does have an outstanding 67.7 percent completion rate in those four games, a performance which is even more impressive when you consider that Cameron Brate has been his default second receiving option during that time. When Mike Evans is your WR1 though, you can get away with some sketchy depth behind him. The Saints' pass defense isn't likely to slow Winston or Evans down, sitting right there with the Bucs in YPA against at 7.8 (28th in the league). ... Adam Humphries (concussion) is the latest Tampa receiver to go down, leaving the likes of Russell Shepard (6-92-0 on nine targets over the last three games), Freddie Martino (4-56-0 on four targets last week) and Eagles castoff Josh Huff to get snaps opposite Evans. Mark Ingram (toe/knee) and Michael Thomas (foot) are both questionable for the Saints, but only Thomas seems in any real danger of sitting.

Predictions: Ingram picks up 60 yards. Brees throws for 280 yards and TDs to Willie Snead and Tim Hightower. Doug Martin runs for 80 yards and a score. Winston throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Evans, Brate and Martino. Buccaneers, 28-20

Atlanta at Los Angeles (+6), 45 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: It's been almost a week, and the Falcons may not have recovered yet from the devastating way they lost to the Chiefs. I've seen some Monday morning quarterbrains say that they made a mistake going for two at all, but given that they were only up by one point after the TD, not going for two would have been a terrible decision. Heck, if you're going to give in to paranoia and not go for two to avoid the one-in-a-million scenario of Eric Berry returning it the other way, you may as well not kick the extra point either and simply kneel down with the ball on the convert to avoid any chance of a turnover, as there's no difference between being up by one and up by two that late in the game. Anyway, if they have shaken off the loss, they'll notice that they're suddenly tied with the Bucs atop an NFC South that looked like theirs for the taking a month ago. The Rams, sitting in the bottom half of the league with a 93.7 QB rating against and 21 TD passes allowed, shouldn't pose much of a threat to a motivated Matt Ryan, and Julio Jones' toe injury didn't stop him from recording his seventh 100-yard game last week. ... Jared Goff, unsurprisingly, couldn't process what the Patriots were throwing at him last week, but he's not the first rookie QB to get pwned by Bill Belichick, and he won't be the last. Dan Quinn may have been Seattle's defensive coordinator before taking the head coach gig in Atlanta, but you'd never know it from the Falcons' stats. They sit 28th in QB rating against at 100.5 – to put that in perspective, Russell Wilson's career QB rating is currently 100.3, and he's second all-time in that category behind Aaron Rodgers' 103.5. Goff is no Wilson, but as he showed against the Saints two weeks ago, he's no necessarily an automatic three-and-out either. ... Robert Quinn (concussion) could miss Sunday's game, but is the only big name on the Rams' injury report. Mohamed Sanu (groin) is out for the Falcons.

Predictions: Devonta Freeman piles up 110 combined yards and a TD, while Tevin Coleman also gets into the end zone. Ryan throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Jones and Taylor Gabriel. Todd Gurley gains 90 yards and a score. Goff throws for 230 yards and TDs to Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks. Falcons, 34-24

Seattle at Green Bay (+3), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: We're entering uncharted territory here. Despite their other injuries on defense, during their run as perennial Super Bowl contenders, the Seahawks had never played a game without Earl Thomas until their Week 12 loss to Tampa, and now they'll have to play without him for the rest of the season (and possibly beyond) after he got clipped by Kam Chancellor going for an INT and broke his leg. The team could very well rally around their fallen teammate, but the Legion of Boom is now down its biggest boomstick, and the impact on the overall defensive performance could be huge. On the bright side for Seattle, Thomas Rawls had a very Beast Mode-like game last week, restoring the offense to the balance it's used to, so if the defense falls off they may be able to score enough to compensate. ... Aaron Rodgers over the last seven games: 67.1 percent completion rate, 19:3 TD:INT, 301.9 passing yards per game. The Packers over those seven games: just 3-4, putting the two games back in the NFC North and on the outside of the wild card race as it currently stands. It's tough to bet against Rodgers staying locked in for the rest of the regular season, but he really needs to get a little more help from the rest of the roster if he's going to get them into the playoffs. Getting their backfield figured out would be a good start, but when Aaron Ripkowski is your most productive runner, something is very wrong. The Seahawks, fourth in YPC allowed at 3.6, probably aren't the team to figure it out against. ... Clay Matthews is playing through a shoulder injury, but looked very ineffective last week. Other than Thomas, Seattle reports no major injuries, and they got Michael Bennett (knee) back last week.

Predictions: Rawls runs for 60 yards and a TD. Russell Wilson throws for 330 yards and three TDs, two to Doug Baldwin and one to Tyler Lockett, while Jimmy Graham tops 100 yards. Ty Montgomery leads the Green Bay backfield with 50 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and three TDs of his own, hitting Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Jared Cook, but comes up short in a comeback attempt. Seahawks, 31-30

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+3), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Cowboys just keep winning, but more impressive than the victories themselves is the way they keep beating other teams at their own game. They matched Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger scoring drive for scoring drive in winning shootouts against Washington and the Steelers, but then stole points when they could in low-scoring nailbiters over the Vikings and Ravens. The Giants are fourth in QB rating against at 78.6 and fifth in rushing yards allowed per game at 91.4, so the latter script seems like it should be the operative one. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott will need to pick their spots, but if New York expects the nervous rookies they saw in Week 1, they'll be in for a rude awakening. ... You'd think Dallas' defensive issues would come back and bite them at some point – they're now 29th in QB rating against at 100.8 and 31st in INTs with a mere four, but somehow fifth in scoring defense at 19 points a game. Eli Manning is capable of exploiting their weakness on the back end, but his recent play has been a mixed bag. He's thrown multiple TDs in five straight games since the Giants' bye (14:6 TD:INT), but with only a 60.4 percent completion rate and 222.6 yards per game. If Ben McAdoo is ever going to take the shackles off his offense, now would be the time to do it. ... Jason Pierre-Paul (sports hernia) leaves a big hole on the Giants' defensive line, but the Cowboys' defense is in even worse shape, with J.J. Wilcox (thigh) and Morris Claiborne (hernia) out, and DeMarcus Lawrence (back) and Orlando Scandrick (foot) questionable, although Scandrick is expected to play.

Predictions: Elliott rambles for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Prescott throws for 230 yards and TDs to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Rashad Jennings runs for 60 yards, but Shane Vereen catches a touchdown. Eli Manning throws for 260 yards and two more TDs, to Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz. Cowboys, 28-27

Baltimore (+7) at New England, 45.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Apparently, when I scolded Joe Flacco in last week's piece and suggested he needed to "get his act together," he took it to heart. He only has 15 touchdown passes on the season, but nine of them have come in the last four games, including his four-TD explosion against the Dolphins in Week 13. One of the biggest beneficiaries has been Breshad Perrriman, who has three of those scores (on only six catches) and is emerging as a dangerous downfield weapon – despite his size, only one of those three TDs came in the red zone. The Patriots' pass defense seems OK when you look at the basic stats, but are 25th overall in DVOA and don't rank higher than 19th against any position, so if Flacco can continue to ride this wave, he should be able to do some more damage. ... As has been the case throughout their time together, no Rob Gronkowski meant no big numbers for Tom Brady last week. Things don't get any easier for him Monday, as the Ravens are eighth in QB rating against at 85.5, fifth in YPA allowed at 6.6 and tied for second with 14 INTs. If we're judging by DVOA though, their pass defense does have a weak spot the Patriots are well-equipped to exploit – Baltimore is 22nd against RBs, which means we could see plenty of Dion Lewis and James White getting chased around by C.J. Mosley. ... Danny Amendoa (ankle) is doubtful for the Pats, while Martellus Bennett (ankle/shoulder) is questionable. The Ravens head into the game mostly healthy.

Predictions: Kenneth Dixon leads the Baltimore backfield with 80 combined yards, but neither he nor Terrance West score. Flacco throws for 270 yards and TDs to Perriman and Steve Smith. LeGarrette Blount plods for just 40 yards, but Lewis adds 70 combined yards and a touchdown while White also catches a TD pass. Brady throws for 260 yards and another touchdown to Julian Edelman. Patriots, 24-20

Last week's record: 10-5, 7-8 ATS, 13-2 o/u
2016 regular season record: 114-76-2, 82-102-8 ATS, 106-84-2 o/u