This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Miami (+7) at Cincinnati, 44.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT
Comments: Ugh. A second consecutive mediocre week has me re-thinking my life choices, but all you can do is pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start all over again. These two squads are two of the main culprits too, as the Dolphins barely escaped with a win in a game they should have dominated, while the Bengals pass defense simply didn't show up against Trevor Siemian and the Broncos. Depending on how you look at it, that's either bad news for Cinci since it now faces a team coached by the guy who made Demaryius Thomas a star in the first place, or bad news for Miami since it faces a defense looking for someone to take its frustrations out on. Tipping the scales perhaps slightly in favor of the former scenario is the fact that Dre Kirkpatrick probably won't play due to a hamstring strain, leaving the Bengals a little short-handed in the secondary. ... In case you thought having two backs share the load was rough on their fantasy value, the Dolphins are trotting out a true committee to replace Arian Foster, with Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead each receiving 11 to 27 snaps last week. Shockingly, none produced big numbers in that kind of timeshare, and although Drake saw the 27 snaps, Ajayi's game-winning overtime TD might tip the scales in his favor Thursday. The Bengals have given up just 3.7 YPC, though, so don't get your hopes up. ... Giovani Bernard, however, seems poised for a big game. He's alternated bad weeks with good ones and while that's not exactly predictive of a good Week 4, the Dolphins' lack of healthy linebackers might be. Jelani Jenkins (groin) and Koa Misi (neck) are both probably sidelined and Kiko Alonso (hamstring) is limping too. Even backup Spencer Paysinger (neck) is out. Former Charger Donald Butler got signed off the street last week and could be forced into the starting lineup and could be their best option to try to cover Bernard out of the backfield, which isn't saying much.
Predictions: Ajayi leads the Miami backfield with 60 yards. Ryan Tannehill throws for 280 yards and a TD to DeVante Parker, and gets picked off his usual two times. Jeremy Hill runs for 50 yards and a touchdown while Bernard racks up 120 combined yards and a receiving TD of his own. Andy Dalton throws for 340 yards and two more scores to A.J. Green, who hauls in 130 yards. Bengals, 31-13
Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville (+2.5), 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT at London
Comments: The NFL's series of games in the UK kicks off this week with the Colts and Jaguars, because apparently the NFL hates its British fans. Maybe that's a little harsh, but the two teams are a combined 1-5 after all, and it's not like bad starts for either is some huge shock. Indy's issues on defense were pretty predictable, but Jacksonville scoring just 18 points a game through the first three weeks certainly requires a double-take. Blake Bortles is still slinging it – he's on pace for an incredible 677 pass attempts – and his completion percentage is actually up a bit, but a 5:6 TD:INT and a woeful 6.6 YPA are killing not only his own value but that of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, too. You can't even blame those numbers on the quality of his opposition. The Ravens do rank eighth in QB rating against, but neither the Chargers nor the Packers are in the top half of the league, with Green Bay way down in 27th. He's also been sacked nine times, which is only good in comparison to the 51 sacks he absorbed last season or the 55 times he was dragged down as a rookie. Maybe a healthy Chris Ivory can change the offensive balance, take some pressure off Bortles and allow him to be more effective, but Ivory's now dealing with ankle and knee injuries in addition to the mysterious "general medical issue" that cost him the first two games of the year. ... The Colts' secondary of the first three weeks would be one Bortles could get well against in a hurry, but that window may have closed. The unit will be nearly intact in London, with Vontae Davis the big addition now that he's recovered from his ankle injury, and Darius Butler (hamstring) is the only DB they have listed on the injury report. That doesn't mean they'll be good necessarily, but they should be better than their 25th-place ranking in QB rating against would suggest. ... The Jags, however, have a number of wounded beyond Ivory. Julius Thomas (elbow) will probably be a game-time decision, while the front seven is dealing with injuries to Dante Fowler Jr. (shoulder), Malik Jackson (quad) and Jared Odrick (elbow). That could make it tough to get to Andrew Luck, but it should also give Frank Gore a little more running room against a defense that was already allowing nearly 110 rushing yards a game.
Predictions: Gore bashes out 70 yards and a TD. Luck throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Philip Dorsett and one to T.Y. Hilton, with Hilton topping 100 yards. T.J. Yeldon runs for a season-high 50 yards (yikes) as Ivory is again ineffective. Bortles throws for 350 yards and scores to Hurns and Marqise Lee, but gets picked off twice once again. Colts, 34-23
Tennessee (+5) at Houston, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: After looking like Super Bowl contenders at home for the first two weeks of the season, the Texans went to Foxboro last Thursday and got their butts handed to them by the Patriots. Adding injury to insult, J.J. Watt aggravated his back problem and could be lost for the season, depriving the team of its most dynamic player. Facing the Titans back in Houston should be exactly what they need to get back on track, but the loss of Watt changes the entire complexion of the team. If the defense isn't dominant without him – something they've never had to test, since he'd started every game since coming into the league until this week – Brock Osweiler hasn't exactly looked like the kind of QB who can start putting up more points to compensate. ... Tennessee's defense also hasn't been a pushover. It ranks a surprising 10th in QB rating against, holding opposition signal-callers to a 56.5 completion percentage and just two TDs through three games. The defense probably needs to be stout though, as Marcus Mariota could be without two of his top targets. Delanie Walker (hamstring) is still limited at practice, while Tajae Sharpe is also nursing a hamstring strain. At least Kendall Wright's healthy again, for what that's worth. ... Even with Watt in the lineup, Houston has struggled against the run in the early going, allowing over 125 rushing yards a game and a 4.8 YPC. You can pin a lot of that on LeGarrette Blount and the Pats, but with DeMarco Murray running like 2015 never happened, the Texans' defensive line could be in for another rough week.
Predictions: Murray rushes for 110 yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for 240 yards but hits Wright and Rishard Matthews for TDs. Lamar Miller manages just 70 yards, while Osweiler throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, playing hero by leading a late field-goal drive to salvage the win. Texans, 23-21
Cleveland (+7.5) at Washington, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: I want to feel sorry for the Browns, I really do, but stories like this one really make it seem like they're trying to lose and lock up the top pick in the draft, presumably so they can auction it off again like they did this year's second overall pick. More power to them if it gets them to a dynasty eventually, but I'm not going to shed a tear for all the losses in the meantime. Having nothing to lose but a bunch of games is giving Hue Jackson the freedom to experiment, and the result last week was Terrelle Pryor reminding everyone of how cool it was when players like Kordell Stewart got to do a little bit of everything. Washington's defense hasn't been able to stop anyone from doing anything this year, so Pryor's numbers in Week 4 could once again be truly something. ... Seriously, even the Saints would be embarrassed by Washington's defensive performance so far. Their 4.6 yards per carry allowed looks terrible until you look at their yards per pass attempt allowed, a typo-seeming 9.0. Nine yards an attempt! Their opponents are nearly averaging a first down every time they throw the ball. Only giving up 4.6 yards seems like a major victory in comparison. (Early season stats are so much fun – that gruesome YPA actually only ranks them 30th, meaning two teams have been even worse. Three guesses who those teams are, with the answer at the bottom of the article.) I'm not sure you can rely on Cody Kessler to take advantage of that vulnerability, but Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson could be a poor man's Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman if they get the chance. ... Josh Doctson remains out with an Achilles injury, while DeSean Jackson (knee/ankle) has been limited in practice but should play. Bashaud Breeland is also out with an ankle injury. Other than being down to their eighth-string QB or whatever, the Browns don't have any key injuries.
Predictions: Crowell picks up 70 yards and scores, while Johnson adds 80 combined yards. Kessler throws for 170 yards and gets picked off twice. Pryor manages just 60 combined yards but does throw a TD pass to Gary Barnidge. Matt Jones rumbles for 80 yards and a TD. Kirk Cousins throws for 370 yards and touchdowns to Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder, but Jordan Reed leads the team in receiving with 130 yards. Washington, 27-14
Seattle at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: Russell Wilson hasn't missed a game in his NFL career, so shame on you for thinking a little thing like an MCL sprain would keep him out of this one. Oh, and a high ankle sprain too, on the other leg. Ouch. The Jets' pass rush hasn't been spectacular but does have nine sacks through three games, while Wilson's only been sacked seven times despite facing what should be two good front sevens in the Dolphins and Rams, so Gang Green's ability to get to him versus his ability to get rid of the ball quickly could be the real story of the game. ... The Jets aren't without a key injury on offense themselves. Eric Decker's shoulder issue has made him an extremely limited participant in practice this week, but he's unable to suit up Quincy Enunwa seems ready to pick up the slack. Of course, if Ryan Fitzpatrick chucks up a half-dozen INTs again, it really doesn't matter who was supposed to be on the other end of those passes. Seattle's secondary isn't the ball-hawking nightmare for opposition QBs it used to be, though – after leading the league with 28 INTs in 2013, they only managed 27 total between 2014 and 2015 and have only one through the first three games this year. ... Christine Michael seized firm control of the Hawks' RB1 job last week, but that hasn't stopped the team from looking for depth to replace Thomas Rawls. Rookie Alex Collins' workload continues to inch up, and with fellow rookie C.J. Prosise still out due to a broken bone in his wrist, the club signed C.J. Spiller to take the third-down role in his place. (Presumably they'll sign Allison Janney next if Spiller doesn't work out.) The Jets have stifled pass-catching backs pretty well, with LeSean McCoy's four catches for 31 yards being the high-water mark, so don't expect Spiller to be a deep-league sleeper for you this week. For that matter, they've also only allowed 3.3 yards per carry and a single rushing TD this season, so don't expect Michael to repeat last week's production, either.
Predictions: Michael grinds out 60 yards. Wilson throws for 220 yards and a long touchdown to Doug Baldwin, but gets sacked five times. Matt Forte manages 70 yards and a score, while Fitzpatrick minimizes his mistakes, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to Brandon Marshall and Enunwa. Jets, 24-13
Buffalo (+4.5) at New England, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: I give up. Every time it looked like the deck is stacked against the Pats, that they're just missing too much talent to perform at their usual level, they go out and lay a pasting on a good team, as they did last Thursday against the Texans. The Bills are coming off an emotional win last week too, setting them up perfectly for a big letdown against their better rested, more prepared division rivals. It might help Buffalo if it knew who was going to be under center for New England, but with both Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) and Jacoby Brissett (thumb) banged up, that announcement likely won't come until Sunday morning. ... Greg Roman got fired as the Bills' offensive coordinator because Rex Ryan said he wanted to open up the passing game more, but then they beat the Cardinals in large part thanks to their running game, as Tyrod Taylor put up truly terrible passing numbers. It's almost like Roman wasn't the problem. The Patriots have allowed 90.3 rushing yards a game so far, tied for 10th in the league, but that's more due to game flow than any stoutness in their front seven as their 4.4 yards per carry allowed puts them just outside the bottom 10. With Sammy Watkins (foot) still out along with veteran roster-filler Greg Salas (groin), and Charles Clay (knee) limping, another ground and pound strategy from the Bills seems likely. ... Is this the week Rob Gronkowski finally begins giving fantasy players some return on their investment? After missing the first two games entirely, he was an empty uniform in Week 3, playing just 14 snaps and failing to catch his only target. He seems headed for a workload increase Sunday, but whether his production returns to normal might depend on who's at QB. The Pats may have won with Brissett last week, but he certainly wasn't the reason they did so. Anyone with Gronk shares, at the very least, will want to see who's throwing him passes this week before deciding whether to cut ties with the tight end used in his place.
Predictions: LeSean McCoy picks up 80 yards and a TD. Taylor throws for 220 yards and rushes for 30 more, but his only score is a touchdown pass to Walter Powell. Brissett starts, managing 150 passing yards and 60 rushing yards while throwing his first NFL touchdown pass to Julian Edelman. LeGarrette Blount continues to carry the load, rumbling for 70 yards and a TD. Patriots, 17-14
Carolina at Atlanta (+3), 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: The Super Bowl loser hangover seems to have a firm grip on the Panthers, who have staggered out to a 1-2 start and were thoroughly manhandled by the Vikings. Carolina's defense has mostly held up, as it ranks in the top 10 in both QB rating against and yards per carry allowed, but the offense only managed to catch fire against the 49ers, which isn't exactly a stiff test. Perhaps understandably, they may not have been able to completely focus on the football field last week, though, so a trip to Atlanta and a game against the team that spoiled their undefeated regular season in 2015 – as well as against a defense allowing 30.3 points a game – might be just what they need to regain their swagger. ... The Falcons, for their part, are 2-1 because they keep outscoring their defense. It's the backfield duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman that's been leading the way, though, not Julio Jones. The two RBs have combined for a massive 617 yards from scrimmage and five TDs through three games, although Matt Ryan's 970 passing yards and 7:1 TD:INT aren't too shabby either. Jones' lower body injuries continue to sloe him, but he's not the only key member of the Atlanta offense on the injury report this week. Coleman (ankle), Mohamed Sanu (shoulder) and Justin Hardy (shoulder) were limited in practice, while Freeman (illness) and Ryan (thumb, but on his non-throwing hand) are also operating at less than 100 percent. Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) remains out for the Panthers, leaving their backfield in the hands of the somewhat less exciting tandem of Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker. ... It's hard to overstate how awful Atlanta's defense has been through the first three weeks. It's allowed 10 passing TDs, tied for most in the league, and its 110.7 QB rating against is 31st. Run defense hasn't been much better, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (26th) and 120 rushing yards a game (22nd). The Falcons have only surrendered two rushing TDs, but only because opponents have so much success throwing for scores.
Predictions: Artis-Payne leads Carolina's RBs with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Cam Newton throws for 330 yards and three scores, one to Kelvin Benjamin and two to Greg Olsen. Coleman answers back with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Freeman also picks up 60 yards. Ryan throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Jones. Panthers, 34-17
Oakland (+3.5) at Baltimore, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: The Raiders haven't really established an identity yet this season. Through their first couple games, facing two of the worst defenses in the league, it seemed like their collection of young talent on offense was going to shoot the lights out all year, but then they gritted out a low-scoring win in Tennessee in Week 3. They might have follow that same formula in Baltimore, which ranks in the top 10 in QB rating against and passing yards allowed, and has more INTs than passing TDs allowed. It's beginning to look like Latavius Murray may not be the guy to carry the load in a game won in the trenches, however. Just as he did to Darren McFadden a couple years ago, a younger, more explosive back seems to be pushing him aside as DeAndre Washington continued to chew up big chunks of yardage with his handful of touches each week. Murray's the one getting into the end zone, though, so the Raiders may prefer to stick with the depth chart they have until their won-loss record encourages them to change it. ... Speaking of unsettled backfields, the Ravens have one. Terrance West's 3.6 YPC only looks good next to Justin Forsett's 3.2 mark, and Javorius Allen doesn't appear to have a future in Baltimore, sitting with the inactives three straight games despite the mediocre performances being put forth by the two veteran RBs ahead of him. Fourth-round rookie Kenneth Dixon (knee) is probably out of action for at least one more week, but might offer the best hope of someone eventually injecting some life into the Ravens' ground game. ... The Ravens' defense will get a little healthier Sunday as Elvis Dumervil returns from a foot injury. Derek Carr's quick release has allowed him to only be sacked twice through three games, though, so this might just be a shake-the-rust-off game for Dumervil rather than one in which he makes an impact.
Predictions: Murray and Washington each pick up 50 yards, though it takes Murray more touches to get there. Carr throws for 240 yards and a TD to Amari Cooper but gets picked off twice. Forsett grinds out 70 yards, but West scores. Joe Flacco has a big game, throwing for 320 yards and touchdowns to Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta. Ravens, 27-16
Detroit (+3) at Chicago, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Comments: Marvin Jones, man. The former Bengal has stepped right into Megatron's cleats, seeing 29 targets through three games and getting off to a 96-2,176-11 pace as Matthew Stafford's new BFF. That volume has come at Golden Tate's expense, but only slightly – Tate is still on pace for 117 targets, not far off what he saw during his first two years in Detroit. The real problem is that he's just not doing much with the targets he's seeing, but in retrospect that's not actually a big surprise. While many people (including me), focused on his per-game numbers when Calvin Johnson was out of the lineup, Tate managed just 8.7 yards per catch after Jim Bob Cooter took over the offense in the second half of 2015, a number that looks a lot closer to his 7.2 so far in 2016 than his 13.4 in 2014. In the Lions' current system he's almost purely a possession option, which puts his likely production somewhat akin to someone like Cole Beasley rather than anything approaching a WR1 or WR2 in fantasy leagues. ... Jay Cutler's thumb injury means Brian Hoyer will almost certainly be starting again for the Bears, but Hoyer didn't look too bad last week in Dallas. The bigger question is whether he'll have Alshon Jeffery to throw to, as the wideout is now battling a hamstring strain in addition to his lingering knee issue. Kevin White benefited from Jeffery's injuries last week, seeing 14 targets, but he only caught six. Zach Miller was the real winner, snagging his first two TD passes of the year. The Lions have allowed a league-high five touchdowns to tight ends already, so more red zone looks for Miller seems very, very likely. ... Neither backfield is in good shape, but then, neither run defense is either. Chicago has both Jeremy Langford (ankle) and Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring) sidelined, leaving Jordan Howard to get a big workload, especially considering his only backup will be former Lion Joique Bell, who was just signed off the street. The Lions also allow a league-high 5.1 yards per carry, so Howard should find a lot of holes to pound through Sunday. For Detroit, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington will continue to split snaps with Ameer Abdullah (foot) out, though after last week's ugly effort on the ground, Riddick might be restricted to passing downs. That should be good news for the rookie, as he'll face a Bears defense allowing more than 140 rushing yards a game, second most in the league.
Predictions: Washington leads the Lions' backfield with 90 yards. Stafford throws for 290 yards and TDs to Jones and Tate with Jones topping 100 receiving yards again. Howard erupts for 130 yards and a score, while Hoyer throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Miller and White. Detroit blows a late two-point conversion to cap another failed comeback attempt. Bears, 24-22
Denver at Tampa Bay (+3), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Comments: There have been a lot of surprising performances already this season, but none may have been more shocking than watching Trevor Siemian dismantle a strong Bengals secondary in Cincinnati last week. Through two games, he looked very much like a game manager, a QB who would stay out of the way of the defense and running game and minimize mistakes rather than trying to maximize big plays. I'm not sure I'm ready to throw that impression out completely after one game, but considering that the Bucs sit 29th in QB rating against at 106.4, Siemian will probably get opportunities to further dispel it Sunday. ... Jameis Winston has had a couple big games of his own, but the Broncos' defense is just flat out nasty. Their pass defense ranks at or near the top of the league in basically every category, including a 5.7 yards per attempt allowed that has them second behind the Cardinals – the same Cardinals who forced Winston into a 1:4 TD:INT in Week 2. Ulp. ... Denver's D has actually been vulnerable against the run though, allowing a 4.7 YPC, but with Doug Martin (hamstring) still on the shelf they may not be able to take advantage. Charles Sims looked OK last week, but his strength is still as a receiver, not someone who can carry a big load running between the tackles.
Predictions: C.J. Anderson piles up 110 yards and two TDs. Siemian falls back to earth, throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas. Sims manages 80 combined yards, while Winston gets picked off three times but also throws for 260 yards and a score to Mike Evans while running in a touchdown of his own. Broncos, 27-23
Los Angeles (+8) at Arizona, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Comments: The Cardinals' offense, which looked out of sync but still managed to get the job done through the first two games of the season, fell apart completely in Buffalo. Carson Palmer's 0:4 TD:INT doesn't really do justice to how badly the whole unit played – Palmer made ill-advised passes, but his receivers also failed to pull in some of the catchable ones. Bruce Arians' history as an offensive guru, as well as Arizona's run of success with Arians and Palmer at the helm, suggests they'll snap out of it soon enough, but it's a trend worth worrying about. ... Bad as the Cardinals' passing game might have seemed last week, it's still the 2013 Broncos, 2011 Packers and 2007 Patriots all rolled into one compared to the Rams. Case Keenum remains completely inadequate as a starting NFL quarterback, and as long as he presents no threat to the opposition, Todd Gurley is going to continue seeing the kinds of stacked defensive fronts that have held him to a woeful 2.9 YPC. His 85 yards and two TDs in last week's win indicate he can still find a way to be effective through sheer volume, and Arizona has struggled against the run so far with a 4.8 YPC allowed, but until the reins get turned over to Jared Goff (and maybe not even then), the L.A. passing game will be a toxic waste dump for fantasy purposes, especially when matched up against a defense that ranks second in QB rating against at 62.2. ... Tavon Austin is dealing with a shoulder injury, as though things could get any bleaker for the Rams' passing attack. Michael Floyd has cleared the league's concussion protocol, so the Cards head into Sunday without any major injuries.
Predictions: Gurley finds a way to gain 60 yards and a TD. Keenum is picked off twice in a terrible first half, forcing coach Jeff Fisher's hand and getting Goff into the game, but neither QB is able to move the ball much or find the end zone. David Johnson busts out for 150 combined yards and two touchdowns, while Palmer throws for an efficient 250 yards and a TD to Floyd. Cardinals, 27-7
New Orleans (+4) at San Diego, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Comments: It's been a brutal start to the season for the Saints. They've lost two games at home despite averaging 33 points in them, while they came up empty on the road against the Giants even though the defense played well for once when they could only conjure up 13 points. If any team can help them snap that string though, it's the Chargers, who have already made a habit of giving away games – T.Y. Hilton's late 63-yard TD scamper in Week 3 followed a blown 17-point lead in Week 1. Usually in battles of teams who have a special talent for losing it's the fans who are the true losers, but this one at least could be entertainingly wacky. ... Drew Brees, at least, should have a full complement of weapons available to him. Willie Snead is inching closer to returning from his toe injury, while Coby Fleener finally showed up against the Falcons and could be a monster at tight end for the rest of the year, just as Ben Watson was in 2015. Philip Rivers wishes he were so lucky. San Diego avoided any new injuries last week, at least, but Antonio Gates (hamstring) likely will remain out Sunday. ... Expect to see Melvin Gordon approach 30 touches in this one. The Saints' run defense is giving up almost 150 rushing yards a game, most in the league, and its 5.0 YPC allowed shows that it's not just a product of volume and game flow.
Predictions: Mark Ingram bashes out a season-high 90 yards and scores. Brees throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Fleener and Brandin Cooks, with Cooks topping 100 yards. Gordon gallops for 140 yards and a TD, while Rivers throws for 330 yards and touchdown to Tyrell Williams and Dexter McCluster. A fourth quarter fumble by Gordon gets returned by Jairus Byrd for a TD and proves to be the difference. Saints, 34-30
Dallas at San Francisco (+2.5), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Comments: The hype around Dak Prescott continues to outpace his actual production, but given what the Cowboys suffered through last year when Tony Romo was hurt it's easy to understand why their fans would be so thrilled with mere competency. The 49ers defense could be an interesting test for the rookie phenom if he's forced to air it out, as they have four INTs already and are in the top 10 in completion percentage allowed. Whether they can put Prescott in that position is a dubious proposition, though. They've allowed 122.7 rushing yards a game and with Dez Bryant (knee) all but ruled out, Dallas has little reason to rely on Prescott's arm rather than Ezekiel Elliott's legs unless it absolutely has to. ... Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is also well prepared for Chip Kelly's antics on offense, having seen him twice a season for a while now from Kelly's Philly days, though he may not have the defensive line talent at his disposal to do much about it. Carlos Hyde is enjoying life under Chip, racking up four rushing TDs already, but Blaine Gabbert seems to be trying to encourage the coaching staff to give Colin Kaepernick another chance. Through three games, Gabbert's put up numbers quite similar to the kinds of performances that caused the Jaguars to give up on him. ... Vance McDonald (hip) and Brent Celek (back) are both banged up for San Fran and either, neither or both could miss Sunday's game, potentially depriving Gabbert of his two most reliable targets. Bryant's the only key injury for the Cowboys, though Orlando Scandrick's hamstring issue would qualify if the 49ers had any wide receivers worth worrying about.
Predictions: Elliott has another big game, running for 130 yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Jason Witten. Hyde rushes for 90 yards but doesn't score. Gabbert does run for a touchdown but is otherwise held mostly in check, throwing for just 160 yards and a TD to Jeremy Kerley. Cowboys, 23-20
Kansas City (+5.5) at Pittsburgh, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Comments: After teasing his potential return for three weeks, it looks like the Chiefs are finally going to let Jamaal Charles actually suit up Sunday night. (In a classic example of Morissettian irony, it might have taken Charcandrick West being ruled out with an ankle injury to get Charles back in the lineup). He gets a good matchup in his return too, as the Ryan Shazier-less Steelers defense was all but helpless against the Eagles' running backs last week, coughing up 120 rushing yards and two TDs as well as 128 receiving yards and another score to the trio of Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner, none of whom will be mistaken for Jamaal Charles any time soon. Spencer Ware will still be firmly in the backfield mix for the Chiefs, but if Pittsburgh's linebacking corps doesn't make some big adjustments, there could be more than enough touches and yards to go around for both Ware and Charles. ... The Steelers' defense not showing up in Philly wasn't a huge surprise. What was baffling was that Ben Roethlisberger joined them. He still got the ball to Antonio Brown, but otherwise Big Ben failed to make any kind of positive impact in the Week 3 loss. With Le'Veon Bell coming back and looking to make up for lost time against a Kansas City defense that's given up 123 rushing yards a game, though, Roethlisberger should be able to shake off last week. His margin for error could be thin, though – the Chiefs lead the league in QB rating against at a teeny, tiny 51.5, thanks in large part to a league-high eight INTs. ... In addition to Shazier, the Steelers defense will be missing starting safety Robert Golden (hamstring), while second round pick CB/S Sean Davis continues to nurse a sore lower back. Tamba Hali is dealing with knee and hand injuries for Kansas City, further handicapping a pass rush that's already badly missing Justin Houston.
Predictions: Charles picks up 60 combined yards in a fairly quiet return, but Ware collects 70 yards and a TD. Alex Smith throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Jeremy Maclin. Bell gains 90 yards, while Roethlisberger throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to Brown (who pulls down his usual 100-plus yards) and one to Markus Wheaton. Steelers, 27-23
N.Y. Giants (+4.5) at Minnesota, 43.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Comments: It's hard to get a read on the Giants. They are 2-1, but their three games have been decided by a total of six points, so they could just as easily be 3-0 – or 0-3. Coach Ben McAdoo certainly seems to prefer playing things close to the vest, and the team's high-priced free-agent additions on defense have improved what was a terrible unit in 2015, but the offense should be putting up more points given the weapons Eli Manning has at his disposal. Facing a Vikings defense that just walked into Carolina and bullied the defending NFC champs around on their home field is a daunting task, but any team with Odell Beckham has a chance of rising to that challenge. It's really up to McAdoo whether they get the chance to prove it, or if he'll try to beat Minnesota at its own game and win another low-scoring defensive battle. ... You can't exactly say the Vikings didn't miss Adrian Peterson last week, as Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata combined for a 2.7 YPC, but their defense all but won the game by itself (three INTs and eight sacks, including one for a safety) so it didn't much matter. Things won't get any easier for the duo Monday. The Giants are second in the league with a 3.2 YPC allowed, so it could once again be up to Sam Bradford and the defense (well, mostly the defense) to keep Minnesota undefeated. Manning's ability to get rid of the ball quickly typically makes him hard to take down (he's only been sacked six times through three games, and hasn't been sacked more than 30 times in a season since 2013) but the Vikings' pass rush is operating at another level. ... Rashad Jennings (thumb) likely will remain out for the Giants, so Orleans Darkwa could see the biggest workload in their backfield, though rookie Paul Perkins might get some touches. Their secondary is banged up too, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (groin) and first-round pick Eli Apple (hamstring) both hobbled. Stefon Diggs (groin) is the only name of note on Minnesota's injury report, but he should play.
Predictions: Darkwa grinds out 40 yards. Manning throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Beckham but gets picked off twice. McKinnon squeezes out 50 yards, but Asiata score a short TD. Bradford has a strong game against New York's depleted secondary, throwing for 280 yards and scores to Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 31-13
Trivia answer: The two teams who have a yards per pass attempt allowed higher than 9.0 through three games are Oakland at 9.5, and the Jets at 9.7. Revis Island looks more and more like Coney Island every day.
Last week's record: 7-9, 6-10 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2016 regular season record: 26-22, 20-27-1 ATS, 22-24-2 o/u
