DraftKings NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 12 slate includes 10 games, with the Lions-Colts as the matchup with the highest total. Makes sense after Detroit hung 52 points on Jacksonville last week and Anthony Richardson righted the ship for Indianapolis with an impressive showing in New York. Cardinals-Seahawks and 49ers-Packers are the two marquee matchups. Both look appealing for tournament stacks with multiple good options on each side. 

De'Von Achane and Kareem Hunt will make up the chalk at RB while ownership at WR and TE will be spread around for the most part. There are plenty of good players at every position who aren't going to see much ownership and that makes it a great slate for tournaments. I'd suggest fading one of the chalkier RBs and some of the popular $5K WRs. I highlighted some of the best options for cash games and a few of my favorite ideas for GPPs. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB De'Von Achane vs. NE ($7,500)

Achane has clearly established himself as the lead back in Miami. The last three games, he's played 67 percent of snaps while averaging 20 touches. The Dolphins have a favorable home matchup against the Patriots, who've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. Expect Achane to be the second-most popular RB on the board this week, which makes him essentially a lock for cash games and a strong option in tournaments. 

• WR Jakobi Meyers vs. DEN ($5,100)

I highlighted Meyers here last week and he didn't come through, catching four of six targets for 28 yards while rushing once for 20 yards (Brock Bowers drawing 16 targets didn't help). I would've chosen someone else this week but Meyers salary inexplicably dropped by $500 and now he'll be just as popular as last week given that he projects among the top value. The same three mid-range WRs who were popular last week will be again this week with Courtland Sutton ($5,800) and Jauan Jennings ($5,600) rounding out that group. Most likely will roster two of them in cash games. Calvin Ridley ($5,700) projects well too but is probably more of a GPP option given the volatility of Will Levis and the Titans' offense. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jayden Daniels vs. DAL ($7,000)

QB Geno Smith vs. ARI ($5,700)

QB Anthony Richardson vs. DET ($5,600)

RB Christian McCaffrey at GB ($8,500)

RB De'Von Achane vs. NE ($7,500)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. ARI ($6,900)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. SF ($6,800)

RB James Conner at SEA ($6,500)

RB Kareem Hunt at CAR ($5,700)

RB Brian Robinson vs. DAL ($5,600)

WR Nico Collins vs. TEN ($7,600)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. NE ($7,200)

WR DK Metcalf vs. ARI ($6,600)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI ($6,300)

WR Courtland Sutton at LV ($5,800)

WR Jauan Jennings at GB ($5,600)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. DEN ($5,100)

TE Travis Kelce at CAR ($5,800)

TE Jonnu Smith vs. NE ($4,100)

TE Hunter Henry at MIA ($4,000)

TE Luke Schoonmaker at WAS ($2,500)

D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NYG ($3,300)

D/ST Denver Broncos at LV ($3,200)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. NE ($3,100)

D/ST Chicago Bears vs. MIN ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Detroit Lions (29.25) at Indianapolis Colts (21.25)

LIONS

Detroit continues to look like the most complete team in the league. Fresh off a 52-point drubbing of the Jags, the Lions have the highest implied total on the slate for another prime matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis games have been fruitful for fantasy points this season and it's always a plus to target dome games as the weather gets colder. Jared Goff ($6,600) just threw for 412 yards and four touchdowns as he and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) had their best games of the season. St. Brown caught all 11 of his targets for 161 yards and two scores, his eighth consecutive game with a touchdown. Jameson Williams ($6,000) got in on the action with four catches for 124 yards and a TD. Sam LaPorta ($4,300) is back healthy and priced his cheapest all year. The nice thing about rostering Lions is that none will be overly popular. Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) and David Montgomery ($6,700) are also coming off nice games and make sense as leverage options off the chalky running backs. I like them best when paired with Richardson for salary relief. 

COLTS 

The aforementioned Anthony Richardson ($5,600) is coming off his best performance of the season, which isn't saying much but he went into New York and beat the Jets when most had written him off. He did it with both his arm and legs as he threw for 272 yards and a touchdown and ran for 32 yards and two scores on his way to 29 fantasy points. Because so much of Richardson's value is tied to his rushing, it's not mandatory to pair him with a WR. Josh Downs ($6,200) remains the top option. He caught five passes for 84 yards and a TD last week, his third consecutive game with at least five catches and fourth straight with at least 60 yards. Michael Pittman ($5,300) has gone four games without reaching double-digit fantasy points, but he caught five of eight targets last week and is priced cheaper than ever. Alec Pierce ($4,900) played 80 percent of snaps as the third WR while Adonai Mitchell ($3,900) played 17 percent. If you were considering a flyer on Mitchell, he'll likely have to be very efficient. 

• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR St. Brown or WR Williams +/- TE LaPorta
• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Richardson + RB Gibbs and/or WR St. Brown + WR Pittman

Arizona Cardinals (24.25) at Seattle Seahawks (23.25)

CARDINALS

Arizona's offense is relatively slow-paced and its games have yielded the third-fewest combined snaps this season but a matchup in Seattle against the fast-paced Seahawks should even things out. At the least it should be competitive with points on both sides. Kyler Murray ($6,200) is quietly putting together his best season, excelling with both his arm and legs. He's topped 21 fantasy points in three of his last four games and his salary has somehow fallen to a season low. Marvin Harrison ($6,100) is also priced cheaper than he's ever been and yet neither him nor Murray are expected to garner much ownership. Harrison is especially appealing for tournaments at low ownership given the ceiling he possesses. Incredibly, Trey McBride ($5,600) has yet to catch a touchdown this season. He's still been one of the best TEs in the league and it's surely only a matter of time. James Conner ($6,500) will be the most popular Cardinal. He's seen consistent volume and remains involved in the passing game. A nice thing about Arizona is that it really only has four relevant players from a DFS perspective. 

SEAHAWKS

Seattle enters this matchup riding high after a come-from-behind victory in San Francisco last week. Geno Smith ($5,700) won it with 16-yard touchdown run to continue what's been a strong season. All of his weapons are healthy, which gives the game its best chance of shooting out. DK Metcalf ($6,600) returned from a three-week absence last week to catch seven of nine targets for 70 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300) had 10 catches on 11 targets for 110 yards. It was his second straight 100-yard game after his slate-breaking 180-yard, two touchdown performance in Week 9. He and Metcalf are so good that they render Tyler Lockett ($4,800) almost irrelevant for DFS purposes. I wouldn't have much interest Noah Fant ($3,700) either, returning from a groin injury that kept him out of the last two games. Kenneth Walker ($6,900) will be the most popular Seahawk. Similar to Conner on the Arizona side, he sees consistent volume and opportunities in the passing game. 

• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Murray + RB Walker + WR Harrison or TE McBride
• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + WR Metcalf or WR Smith-Njigba + TE McBride

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Terry McLaurin or WR Noah Brown + TE Luke Schoonmaker

QB Jordan Love + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Jayden Reed or WR Christian Watson or WR Romeo Doubs

QB Brock Purdy + RB Josh Jacobs + WR Jauan Jennings and/or RB Christian McCaffrey

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton + WR Jakobi Meyers or TE Brock Bowers

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB Rhamondre Stevenson + WR Tyreek Hill

QB Tua Tagovailoa + WR Tyreek Hill + WR Kendrick Bourne or WR Kayshon Boutte or TE Hunter Henry

QB Drake Maye + RB De'Von Achane + WR Kendrick Bourne or WR Kayshon Boutte or TE Hunter Henry

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Nico Collins vs. TEN ($7,600)

Collins made his return from a five-week absence on Monday night and had a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage called back for an illegal man downfield. He looked as healthy as ever and I wouldn't worry at all that he only played half the snaps. He drew a 33 percent target share and the game was a blowout. The other reason to like him is that he won't be overly popular with most people choosing to live in the mid-range at WR and spend up at other positions. 

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs at IND ($7,300)

Gibbs might be my favorite leverage option on the slate this week. First, he makes sense paired with Anthony Richardson in the highest-totaled game. Second, there will be 10-plus running backs more popular this week, most considerably so. Gibbs has a wider range of outcomes because he normally sees less volume than the other top RBs, but that doesn't change the fact that his ceiling his sky high. He put up 35 fantasy points on 19 touches against the Vikings a month ago and 23 points on just 12 touches the week after. There's potential for outsized play volume in this matchup, which is why I like including him in stacks. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Joe Mixon vs. TEN ($8,000)

Fading Mixon is pretty simple. He's expensive and other cheaper RBs are in better spots. Mixon has been fantastic this season, but the Titans have been good against the run. Only one player has topped 65 rushing yards against them all year and I'm not going to pay a premium in the hopes Mixon can be the second. I'd rather get exposure to the Texans with Nico Collins at less ownership. I'd also rather save money at one of the RB spots now that we have some viable value in likes of Hunt, Robinson, Irving, etc. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Kareem Hunt at CAR ($5,700)

The most popular player on the slate is almost sure to be Kareem Hunt ($5,700) after Isiah Pacheco was ruled out Friday. The Chiefs are double-digit favorites against the Panthers and all of their skill-position players are randomly priced at a discount. That makes Hunt a no-brainer for cash games, assuming he sees 20-plus touches like he has in five of the last six games. It's an especially soft matchup as no team has allowed more fantasy points to RBs than the Panthers.

The Bargain Bin

QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. NE ($5,800)

QB Geno Smith vs. ARI ($5,700)

QB Anthony Richardson vs. DET ($5,600)

QB Drake Maye at MIA ($5,500)

QB Tommy DeVito vs. TB ($4,000)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson at MIA ($5,900)

RB Tony Pollard at HOU ($5,800)

RB Kareem Hunt at CAR ($5,700)

RB Brian Robinson vs. DAL ($5,600)

RB Bucky Irving at NYG ($5,300)

RB Ameer Abdullah at MIA ($4,300)

WR Keenan Allen vs. MIN ($4,900)

WR Rome Odunze vs. MIN ($4,800)

WR Romeo Doubs vs. SF ($4,600)

WR Noah Brown vs. DAL ($4,200)

WR Devaughn Vele at LV ($3,900)

WR Kendrick Bourne at MIA ($3,600)

WR Kayshon Boutte at MIA ($3,500)

TE Luke Schoonmaker at WAS ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• TE Jake Ferguson at WAS

Ferguson remains in concussion protocol after leaving Monday's game against Houston. Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500) filled in and caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards. He'd be a viable options for cash games given he's priced at the minimum. 

Weather

• Sustained wind in New York with gusts up to 25 mph won't help Tommy DeVito.
• Scattered showers in Seattle, but nothing out of the ordinary. 
• This is written Friday and it's always better to check the weather Sunday.