NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Green Bay at Detroit (+3) - Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

Comments: One of these teams is 3-2 over its last five games, while the other is 1-4. No, I don't get it either. While the switch at offensive coordinator to Jim Bob Cooter (I will never not giggle when typing out that name. It's so perfectly Tennessean) has drawn most of the media attention, and Matthew Stafford certainly looked good last week against an Eagles defense that was mentally already on the golf course, it's the Lions defense that's really sparked their turnaround. In four of their last five games, they've held opponents to less than 20 points, and they weren't exactly facing scrubs (the Vikings and Raiders joined the Eagles and, yes, Aaron Rodgers' Packers in that club). The fifth game was a blowout loss to Kansas City in which the Detroit front seven coughed up four rushing TDs, adding to their league-worst total of 15 rushing touchdowns surrendered. It seems weird to say, but Green Bay's best chance of winning might come through the revitalized Eddie Lacy, rather than Rodgers. ... Over that 1-4 stretch, Rodgers has been sacked an average of three times a game. He's already been brought down 26 times this season, after being sacked 28 times in 2014, and the wear and tear is starting to catch up to him. He came out of last week's game complaining of numb fingers in his hand after a hard hit to his left elbow, and given the league-wide plague of injuries it's something of a minor miracle that he hasn't had to miss a game yet. Leaning more on Lacy should help keep him upright, but it won't improve his production, as his 60.5 percent completion rate and 3,900-yard pace would be his lowest full-season totals since he became the starter in 2008. It's a testament to how great Rodgers is that those numbers would be considered a poor season for him, but that's little consolation for owners who invested a high pick in him. ... Disappointing and inconsistent as the offense has been, the Packers' defense has been that consistently solid, and they're still one of six teams allowing fewer than 20 points a game this year. Their run defense has become semi-respectable after a weak start, and they're seventh in the league in passing TDs allowed, at 14 in 11 games. They're also in a five-way tie for fifth with 30 sacks, but one of the teams they're tied with? The Lions. Rodgers ran for just eight yards the first time these two tangled, but expect him to get on his bike a little more often in this one.

Predictions: Lacy has his third straight 100-yard game, and scores. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and a TD to Davante Adams and runs for 40 yards and a touchdown. Ameer Abdullah leads the Lions' backfield with 70 combined yards, but Joique Bell vultures another short TD. Stafford throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron, but also gets picked off twice. Packers, 30-24

N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (+2) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick is just about recovered from his thumb surgery. After lighting up the Dolphins' secondary for four TDs last week, he faces a Giants defense allowing a league-worst 309.2 passing yards a game, along with a poor 7.9 YPA. Jason Pierre-Paul's return hasn't woken up the pass rush either, as the Giants remain tied for last in the league with just 12 sacks in 11 games. Fitzgerald's only been brought down 11 times this year, so that doesn't seem likely to change. ... Coming off his fourth consecutive 100-yard game and second career physics-defying one-handed TD catch, Odell Beckham now doesn't have to worry about being shadowed by Darrelle Revis, who's likely out with a concussion. The downgrade from Revis to Antonio Cromartie is steep, though given the way Beckham is playing, even a healthy Revis would have had his hands full. Also, how bad would Eli Manning's numbers look without his top target? Beckham has caught half his touchdown passes and 38.6 percent of his yardage over the last four games. ... Not that you needed another reason to stay away from the Giants' ineffective, overcrowded backfield, but the Jets are first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (84.4) and rushing TDs allowed (only two).

Predictions:Chris Ivory busts out 80 combined yards and a score. Fitzpatrick throws for 280 yards and TDs to Decker and Bilal Powell. Shane Vereen leads the Giants RBs with 50 combined yards, while Manning throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Hakeem Nicks and Beckham, who tops 100 receiving yards yet again. Jets, 27-20

Arizona at St. Louis (+5.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Last week's close win over the 49ers might indicate at first glance that the Arizona offense doesn't travel well, but take another look. The Cards hung 48 points on the Bears, 42 on the Lions, 34 on the Browns and 39 on the Seahawks in their four other road wins. They also have plenty of incentive to have one a-them, whaddayacallit, "revenge game," "statement victory," type dealies after St. Louis upset them earlier in the year. The Panthers are the darlings of the NFC, but if you're asking me which team the conference puts in Super Bowl 50, I'm giving the nod to the Cards. ... With Chris Johnson (shin) on IR and Andre Ellington (toe) on the limp again, Arizona's backfield will be in the hands of rookie David Johnson, who has seven offensive TDs this season on just 54 touches, an eye-popping rate for a running back. It's hard to say what he might do with a full workload, as the Rams are no pushovers on the ground (11th in YPC against at 3.9), but Johnson's explosiveness and pass-catching ability should keep him heavily involved. Stepfan Taylor will probably get a handful of touches as well, if you're desperate for depth in a deep league. ... Nick Foles has his best game of the season in that upset win, tossing three TDs, but he also only threw for 171 yards and basically just took some scores out of Todd Gurley's pocket. Gurley had his worst game of the season last week, as the eight-man fronts he's seeing, as well as Foles' inability to keep games close, continue to take their toll on his production. The rookie put up 146 rushing yards and a 7.7 YPC on the Cards in Week 4, but did so thanks to very favorable game flow and a defense that didn't know what to expect from him yet. Expecting a repeat against a unit that's fourth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (91.1) seems like a pipe dream.

Predictions: Johnson explodes for 120 combined yards and two TDs, one on the ground and one through the air. Carson Palmer throws for 330 yards and two more touchdowns, to Larry Fitzgerald and J.J. Nelson. Gurley manages 70 rushing yards and a score, but Foles throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Cardinals, 34-7

Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Falcons' free fall continues, as the team that started the season 5-0 is just 1-5 since. Over that stretch they haven't scored more than 21 points, averaging 16.3 points a game, and they really, really need someone to emerge as a credible offensive threat and take some pressure off Julio Jones. Devonta Freeman seems likely to get back into action after his concussion, but that likely won't be enough. Freeman hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 7, and the Bucs' defense has become one of the best run-stuffing units in the league, ranking third in YPC against (3.5) and tied for sixth with just five rushing TDs surrendered. Working in his favor, though, are injuries to half of the Bucs' starting defensive line, including Gerald McCoy (hand). ... Jameis Winston on the road: 8.0 YPA, 11:2 TD:INT ratio. Jameis Winston at home: 7.2 YPA, 5:8 TD:INT ratio. That bodes well for an Atlanta pass defense that ranks sixth in the league in YPA allowed at 6.8 and is one of only two teams in the league with at least as many INTs as TD passes allowed (their 13:13 ratio is second only to the Panthers' 13:18). Last time the Falcons won a game, it was a 10-7 snoozer against Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, so the blueprint for an upset is there. ... What the Bucs have that the Titans don't, though, is a useful running game. Doug Martin hasn't scored since Week 5, but he's chewed up yards recently and the Falcons are 31st in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with 13, even if they squeak into the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (96.8). Something's gotta give there, and the odds are good it will be Martin's string of goose eggs in the TD column, not the Falcons' season-long futility at the goal line.

Predictions: Freeman picks up 70 combined yards. Matt Ryan throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Jones. Martin busts out for 130 yards and a score while Winston runs in another, but the young QB keeps it close with two picks to go with 220 yards and a touchdown to Vincent Jackson. Buccaneers, 21-16

Seattle (PK) at Minnesota - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Legion of Boom was a bust once again last week, but Russell Wilson bailed it out with the best passing game of his career. In fact, before throwing three and then five TDs in the last two weeks, Wilson hadn't tossed more than two touchdowns in a regular-season game in almost two years, with the last coming Dec. 2, 2013, against the Saints. Jimmy Graham's season-ending knee injury doesn't move the needle much on his ability to repeat those performances, since the Seahawks didn't seem to know what to do with him anyway, but facing a Vikings defense that's seventh in passing TDs against and has allowed just one QB all year to throw for more than 300 yards and multiple scores could put a big damper on Russell's production. (By the way, that one QB? It's not Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers, but was instead Derek Carr in Week 10). ... While their pass defense has struggled, the Hawks' run defense has remained stout, sitting fifth in rushing yards allowed per game (92.9) and seventh in YPC against (3.8). That may not be enough to slow Adrian Peterson, though, as the veteran RB has found the end zone in four consecutive games and topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five. He's not quite on pace to match his monstrous 2012 numbers, but nearly 1,700 rushing yards and 12 TDs will do in a pinch. ... The real victim of Peterson's rampage through opposition front sevens has been Teddy Bridgewater. He's proven a capable game manager, but the Vikings rarely ask him to attack down field or use his arm in the red zone, which is a shame given the chemistry he's developing with Stefon Diggs. In fact, Bridgewater's 40 RZ targets is the second fewest in the league for any quarterback who's played in all 11 games this season. Last with 39 targets? Wilson, of course. I told you Seattle didn't know what to do with Graham when they had him.

Predictions:Thomas Rawls bangs out 90 rushing yards and scores for the third straight game. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Tyler Lockett. Peterson rumbles for 110 yards, while Bridgewater throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Kyle Rudolph. Seahawks, 20-13

San Francisco (+7) at Chicago - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Niners are one of only two teams winless on the road, and for good reason. When the most points you've scored in an away game is 27, and the fewest points you've allowed is 27, it's kind of hard to come out on top. The Blaine Gabbert era has produced more consistent QB play but hasn't really sparked the offense, as the Niners are averaging just 14.3 points a game with Gabbert at the helm. The Bears offer a weird matchup for him, as well. Their run defense is among the worst in the league, ranking 30th in YPC against (4.8) and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (128.5), while their pass defense is second with only 214.5 passing yards allowed per game. When it comes to the goal line, though, those results are reversed, as they've allowed just three rushing TDs (second in the league) but 20 passing TDs, putting them in the bottom half of the league. Basically, the formula against Chicago has been to pound them on the ground between the 20s and then air it out in the red zone. If Shaun Draughn can handle the first part of that equation, Gabbert will have a chance to cash in on the second part. ... Matt Forte returned from his knee injury last week but didn't appear to be quite 100 percent and split touches nearly evenly with Jeremy Langford, 16 to 13, with the rookie also seeing more targets than Forte. The Bears really have no reason to give a full workload back to the veteran, who's a free agent in the offseason and almost certainly won't be signed with Langford showing every sign of being ready to take on the starter's role. This could remain a timeshare down the stretch, or at least a situation where coach John Fox rides the hot hand, but either option would play havoc with Forte's value. ... Chicago's WR corps remains swiss cheese. Alshon Jeffery is healthy for once, but Eddie Royal remains sidelined with a knee injury and now Marquess Wilson is out with a foot issue. At least Martellus Bennett seems to have shaken off his sore ribs, though he apparently did so by passing them on to Zach Miller. Who knew rub contusions were contagious? It would be interesting to see what Jay Cutler could do with a healthy arsenal, given his 7:2 TD:INT ration over five games since the Bears' bye.

Predictions: Draughn picks 100 combined yards, while Gabbert throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Anquan Boldin and Vance McDonald. Forte out-gains Langford 80 combined yards to 60 and scores. Cutler throws for 320 yards and three TDs, one to Bennett and two to Jeffery, who pulls down 130 yards. Bears, 31-20

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Tennessee - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The game of the week, at least for draftniks, the 4-7 Jaguars get another chance to beat a beatable team after falling on their faces last week against the Chargers. They've been dangerously close to respectable since getting their butts handed to them by the Patriots, winning three of their last five and losing by a single score or less in four of their last five losses, while the woeful 2-9 Titans have dropped three straight, including a 19-13 loss in Jacksonville two weeks ago. Tennessee's the healthier team coming in, though, as Allen Hurns won't be lining up opposite Allen Robinson due to a concussion. That gives the Jags' other second-round pick from 2014, Marqise Lee, another chance to show he has something to offer, but it could also just mean that Julius Thomas gets more work after racking up 31 targets over the last four games, turning them into 19 catches for 181 yards and two TDs. ... Neither team is particularly vulnerable on the ground, with the Jags still leading the league in YPC allowed at 3.3, but Antonio Andrews did manage 78 rushing yards against them in the first matchup. I still see calls in some corners for David Cobb to take over the Titans' starting job, or at least get more work, but I'm not sure why. Cobb's shown absolutely nothing on the field since he came off IR, and it's not like he tore up the combine before being a fifth-round pick this year. Andrews, undrafted in 2014, is the same size and style of runner but is a better receiving option and, more importantly, has actually produced at least adequate numbers when given the ball. Until Cobb demonstrates he brings something to the table that Andrews doesn't, I don't see being anything more than a classic JAG (Just A Guy). ... Marcus Mariota got his top wide receiver back last week, but Kendall Wright managed all of 19 receiving yards and seven targets. One week further removed from his knee injury he should be a little more elusive, but Wright hasn't topped four catches or 46 yards since Week 3. The Jaguars' secondary is exploitable, but Mariota managed just 231 passing yards and no TDs in that Week 11 loss.

Predictions:T.J. Yeldon runs for 80 yards and scores. Blake Bortles throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Robinson and Thomas. Andrews picks up 80 combined yards, while Mariota throws for 280 yards and TDs to Delanie Walker and Harry Douglas. Jaguars, 24-20

Houston (+3) at Buffalo - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Points scored against the Texans in the last four games: six, six, 17 and six. That J.J. Watt fella ain't too bad, huh? Over those four games (all Houston wins, naturally), Watt has 7.5 sacks and a forced fumble, but he's actually starting to get a bit of help too. The first sack-and-a-half of Jadeveon Clowney's have come in his last four games, and while he's still having trouble staying healthy (he missed the win over the Bengals three weeks ago with a sore back), if he emerges as a true pass-rushing threat opposite Watt, scoring six whole points could begin to look pretty good to opposing QBs. ... While the Texans' front seven rounds into devastating form, the Bills' defensive front keeps breaking down. Mario Williams is expected back from a foot injury this week, but Kyle Williams is lost for the season with a knee injury and starting Sam linebacker Nigel Bradham is out with an ankle injury. The unit hasn't been intact for any length this year, and it shows in the stats as despite its talent level the Bills' defense ranks in the bottom half of the league against the run and is third-worst with just 16 sacks. Brian Hoyer isn't much more than DeAndre Hopkins' personal ball boy these days, but give him enough time in the pocket and even he can find other receiving options once in a while. ... Hopkins, incidentally, picked up a bit of a hamstring injury last week and is coming off his worst game and first single-digit target game of 2015. For the most part the Bills' secondary has done a good job limiting the production of the other team's top wide receivers this year, but unless the hamstring is worse than the Texans are letting on, Hopkins is probably going to get back into Nuk Mode.

Predictions:Alfred Blue rushes for 90 yards and scores. Hoyer throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Nate Washington. LeSean McCoy gets held to less than 100 combined yards for the first time in six games, but he gets into the end zone. Tyrod Taylor throws for 220 yards and a TD to Sammy Watkins, but also gets sacked three times and coughs up a fumble that gets returned for a touchdown by Watt. Texans, 27-14

Baltimore (+4) at Miami - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Matt Schaub's tenure as the Ravens' starting QB started with a win, but it's hard to give him a lot of credit for it. The 34-year-old wasn't bad, but his mistakes were almost costly ones, and even if his play improves it's not like he has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Javorius Allen was solid in his first NFL start out of the backfield and Kamar Aiken was entirely adequate as a No. 3 WR pressed into No. 1 WR duties, but otherwise there's not a lot going on in the Ravens' offense. The team still has time to get hot and make a playoff push, but its schedule down the stretch isn't an obliging one, as this week's game is the last you could consider even close to an easy win. Schaub's backup is Jimmy Clausen, though, who's on his third organization in two seasons, so even if the season becomes a lost cause, the quarterback job is firmly in Schaub's hands, for better or worse. ... Remember that brief surge of optimism that surrounded the Dolphins after they canned Joe Philbin and Dan Campbell led them to back-to-back wins by a combined score of 82-36? Good times. Since then they're 1-4, with the one win coming by a single point and their closest loss being a 10-point deficit against a Cowboys team enjoying their own brief surge of Tony Romo-inspired optimism. Miami's train wreck of a season has finally forced it to start giving opportunities to younger players, though, and DeVante Parker responded with a 4-80-1 line on 10 targets last week. It wasn't exactly the most efficient performance, but you take what you can get when Ryan Tannehill is your QB. With Rishard Matthews (ribs) and Kenny Stills (ankle) both on the mend, Parker should continue seeing plenty of action as the deep-threat complement to Jarvis Landry. Speaking of the Dolphins' young 'uns, Jay Ajayi has also out-performed Lamar Miller for two straight weeks, but isn't likely to push him way into anything more than a time share. ... There could be showers in Miami on Sunday afternoon, but Tannehill will probably be getting his Gene Kelly on now that he's out from under the thumb of Bill Lazor. The ex-offensive coordinator kept a tight leash on Tannehill, forbidding him to audible at the line, and the extra freedom could lead to better play from the fourth-year quarterback. Whether it leads to more production, though, seems unlikely. Tannehill was on pace for a career-high 605 pass attempts already, so if he ends up checking out of called pass plays rather than into them, it's Miller and Ajayi who'll see an uptick in their numbers.

Predictions: Allen gains 90 combined yards and scores. Schaub doesn't do much, throwing for 210 yards and a TD to Aiken. Ajayi leads the Dolphins' backfield with 80 combined yards, but it's Miller who finds the end zone. Tannehill throws for 280 yards and TDs to Parker and Jordan Cameron. Dolphins, 24-17

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+9.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The last time the Bengals swept their season series with the Browns, Andy Dalton was a rookie, but on the surface things look pretty safe for them this time around, as coach Mike Pettine has decided to let Austin Davis start at quarterback instead of Johnny Manziel with Josh McCown now lost for the season with a broken collarbone. Davis wasn't terrible in his first NFL action last year with the Rams, but nine picks in 10 games is a scary track record when you're going up against a defense that's tied for third in INTs. The switch at QB also bodes well for Brian Hartline, whose workload was trending up anyway. Hartline got five of Davis' 10 targets last week after McCown went down (Travis Benjamin had three, and Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson got one each), and he could well emerge as Davis' favorite option down the stretch. ... The Browns' defense is bad both on the ground and through the air, but while their run-stopping grades out a little worse, it was Dalton who had the big game in their first matchup, throwing for three TDs. Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill split 124 rushing yards fairly equally between them in Week 9 (72 for Gio, 52 for Hill) and neither one scored, so this could be another case of neither one being great fantasy plays because both will get between 15-ish touches, rather than one of them dominating the ball. ... Tyler Eifert seems unlikely to play due to a neck stinger, which is a shame as he caught all three of Dalton's touchdowns in the last matchup. Ryan Hewitt would take over most of the available snaps at tight end, but A.J. Green is the more likely candidate to get Eifert's red zone targets.

Predictions: Bernard leads the Bengals backfield with 80 combined yards, but Hill rushes for 50 yards and scores. Dalton throws for 260 yards and TDs to Green and Mohamed Sanu. Isaiah Crowell leads the Browns RB with 50 combined yards, while Davis throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Benjamin, but also throws a pick-six to Reggie Nelson. Bengals, 31-10

Kansas City at Oakland (+3) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: The Chiefs have now won five straight, scoring no fewer than 23 points and allowing no more than 22 over that stretch, to put themselves firmly in the AFC wild card picture. The remarkable thing about their relative success this season has been the strength of their running game, as no matter who gets plugged into the lead role, they pile up yards and TDs. Charcandrick West is expected back from his hamstring injury, and while the team is threatening a time share between him and Spencer Ware, the Chiefs' track record suggests that one will get the bulk of the touches. However the workload is divided, they could both find room against a Raiders run defense that is 26th in the league with a 4.4 YPC allowed. ... Oakland's also extremely vulnerable to tight ends, allowing 10 TDs to TEs this year, which bodes well for Travis Kelce. He had his highest yardage total in a month and caught his fourth touchdown of the season against the Bills despite playing through a sprained ankle, and with another week under his belt to let the ankle heal, he could be poised for a big game. Or at least, a game as big as the Chiefs' run-obsessed offense will let him have. ... Aside from a dud against the Lions in Week 11, Derek Carr has been all but unstoppable lately, racking up four 300-yard performances in his last five starts and throwing multiple TDs in five of his last six. Michael Crabtree, and not Amari Cooper, has been the biggest recipient of Carr's largesse over that stretch, catching five TDs in those six games, but the two receivers have both remained productive, and together they've seen 53.2 percent of Carr's targets, the highest rate in the league for any WR duo (just ahead of Demaryius Thomas' and Emmanuel Sanders' 52.5 percent for the Broncos.) Kansas City's secondary has been a good one, ranking second in completion percentage allowed at 57.6 percent, but it'll have its work cut out for it Sunday.

Predictions: West starts and gains 100 combined yards and scores. Alex Smith throws for 220 yards and a TD to Kelce. Latavius Murray grinds out 60 rushing yards, but Carr throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Cooper and Andre Holmes. Raiders, 23-20

Denver at San Diego (+4) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: Huh, this NFL thing seems pretty easy for Brock Osweiler, doesn't it? Staging a fourth-quarter comeback to hand the Patriots their first loss, in the snow for maximum dramatic effect, isn't bad for your second start. John Elway approves. The real secret to Osweiler's success so far has been the fact that he hasn't needed to be hugely productive. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman ran wild on New England's defense, and the Broncos' own elite defense got stops when they needed them. That's formula that should be fairly easy to repeat against a Chargers team that ranks last in the league in YPC allowed at 4.9. ... Hidden behind the running game's explosion was the return to prominence of Emmanuel Sanders, who had his third 100-yard game of the season in week 12 after missing the previous game entirely. He might not be quite 100 percent healthy given his various injuries, but he can still be effective, and it doesn't seem as though there's much loss of chemistry between him and Osweiler. The same can't be said for Demaryius Thomas, though, who had arguably the worst game of his career in pulling down just one of his 13 targets. Thomas was already having a bad season, but if he and Osweiler aren't on the same page, things could always get worse. ... Philip Rivers got back into the fantasy good books last week after a couple of rough outings, recording his seventh 300-yard, multi-TD game of the season. What's left of his receiving corps has gotten healthy, and a clear hierarchy is emerging. Steve Johnson is Rivers' primary chain-moving target, Antonio Gates is his red-zone weapon and Malcom Floyd and Dontrelle Inman are his field-stretchers. That arsenal might not have the talent to do damage against a Broncos defense that allows a league-low 197.1 passing yards a game, but at least everybody knows their roles.

Predictions: Anderson gains 110 combined yards, Hillman runs for 70, and both score. Osweiler throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Sanders and Vernon Davis. Melvin Gordon runs for just 40 yards, while Rivers tries in vain to keep pace, throwing for 260 yards and TDs to Gates and Floyd. Broncos, 34-14

Philadelphia (+9.5) at New England - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The Tom Brady Revenge On the World Tour hit a speed bump last week, as he simply ran out of people to throw the ball to. Rob Gronkowski's knee injury is the latest to take one of Brady's targets out of the lineup, and while he might not be out for long, that still leaves the QB with limited options this week. If Danny Amendola isn't able to suit up due to a knee injury, Scott Chandler would be Brady's second-most reliable target, if not the most reliable depending on how you feel about Brandon LaFell's buttery hands. ... Fortunately for the Pats, they get to face a team that appears to have completely quit on its coach. Losing to the Dolphins by any score is bad enough, but the Eagles have been blown out by the Bucs and Lions in their last two games by a combined score of 90-31. That's inexcusable. They will get Sam Bradford back from his shoulder injury this week, but unless Bradford can play both ways as a QB and DB, he isn't going to solve all of their problems. ... What chance the Eagles have of even keeping this one competitive will likely depend on their pass rush. The Pats' offensive line continues to show cracks, and while Philly hasn't been able to get to the QB as consistently as they did last year, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are both headed for career highs in sacks and are capable of making an impact if they feel motivated to do so.

Predictions:DeMarco Murray runs for 80 yards, while Bradford throws for 260 yards and TDs to Darren Sproles and Nelson Agholor. LeGarrette Blount bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown. Brady gets sacked three times, but still throws for 300 yards and two TDs to LaFell. Patriots, 27-20

Carolina at New Orleans (+7) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Is this the trap game that will finally trip up the undefeated Panthers? Ehh, probably not, but after dispatching the Cowboys (and Tony Romo) on Thanksgiving, Josh Norman and Thomas Davis spent the weekend hopping from pre-game studio to pre-game studio being told how awesome they are. The Saints also kept the game within a score in their first meeting, a 27-22 Carolina home win in Week 3, and their defense looked marginally better last week against the Texans now that Rob Ryan's been sent packing. An upset here isn't as unthinkable as it seems, even in this upset-crazy season. ... All that said, New Orleans is still 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed at 134.5 per game, which isn't the kind of run defense you want to have against a team that loves to pound the rock. Jonathan Stewart wasn't 100 percent healthy at the beginning of the season and had one of his worst performances of the year in that Week 3 meeting, so at the very least he should be good for more than 52 yards, and Cam Newton's still looking to lock down that MVP vote. Drew Brees, who missed that Week 3 game, might have some magic left in his arm, but he'll need to get the ball at some point to be able to show it. ... Another lower-body injury, this one to his calf, has Willie Snead sidelined again, taking away one of Brees' better weapons. Brandin Cooks has solid numbers in the first meeting (7-79-0 on eight targets) and Ben Watson hasn't yet emerged as Jimmy Graham's more-than-capable replacement, but those are still fairly slender reeds on which to build a victory.

Predictions: Stewart romps for 120 yards and a TD. Newton runs for 30 and a score of his own, while throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen. Mark Ingram carves out 90 combined yards, and Brees throws for 290 yards and TDs to Marques Colston and C.J. Spiller but comes up just short in his comeback attempt. Panthers, 24-23

Indianapolis (+7) at Pittsburgh - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: The Colts have won six games this season, and 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck has been under center for four. That might be the wackiest stat of all in this wackiest of seasons. The veteran has been smooth as silk, though, and while his 6.8 YPA won't set any analytic hearts a-flutter, a 7:2 TD:INT ratio and 64.7 percent completion rate are downright solid. Being a solid game manager won't keep the team undefeated on his watch for the rest of the year, but it's a whole lot better than what some teams have gotten this year from their backup QBs (yes, I'm looking at you, Cowboys). ... I'd also be looking at the Steelers, but they dodged a huge bullet when Ben Roethlisberger avoided a concussion last week. Landry Jones' two picks in four attempts during the loss in Seattle is a bit misleading, as one of those INTs came on a poorly-conceived fake field goal, but he still hasn't been what you'd call good, and the less said about the Michael Vick experiment, the better. Both the secondaries in this game are exploitable -- the Colts are 27th in passing yards allowed per game with 272.8 despite the presence of Vontae Davis, while the Steelers are 30th at 283.6 -- but only one of the starting QBs is really capable of taking advantage. If Pittsburgh's offensive line can keep Big Ben upright, which it should against an Indy pass rush that also ranks 27th with just 19 sacks, he should be able to light it up. ... Heath Miller is likely out with a rib injury for the Steelers, but middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman is also sidelined for the Colts with a hamstring injury. No slight toward Miller, but that's probably a win for Pittsburgh, more of a rook-for-knight swap than a pawn exchange.

Predictions:Frank Gore manages 60 rushing yards, while Hasselbeck throws for 260 yards and TDs to T.Y. Hilton, who tops 100 yards, and Donte Moncrief. DeAngelo Williams gains 120 combined yards, and Roethlisberger throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Antonio Brown (who pulls down 130 yards), Markus Wheaton and Jesse James. Steelers, 30-20

Dallas (+4) at Washington - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: It's cute how the Cowboys won't put Tony Romo on IR in case they somehow turn things around and sneak into the playoffs, but it's more of an indictment of the rest of the NFC East than it is Jerry Jones' roster management. When you're only two games out of the division lead despite a 3-8 record, it's pretty easy to look back at, say, the 2014 Panthers and keep hope alive. That said, a loss here to the nominal division leaders well and truly seals their fate, and Washington has won its last five at home after dropping its opener to the Dolphins. Washington's run defense is poor, though, fifth worst in the league with 126.6 rushing yards allowed per game, so if the Cowboys' offensive line can get its act together and open holes for Darren McFadden and/or Robert Turbin, this one could get interesting. ... Kirk Cousins hasn't been much more than adequate this season, but what rare good games he's had have mostly come at home. Both of his multi-TD games, and three of his four 300-yard performances, have happened at FedEx Field, but he'll be hard-pressed to add to those totals Monday. Dallas' pass defense has been fairly strong this year, allowing a league-low 11 passing touchdowns and ranking seventh in passing yards allowed (225.1 per game), and the issue has been more a lack of turnovers and crucial stops than it's been letting teams rack up yardage at will. They should get Morris Claiborne back from a hamstring injury to try to keep up with DeSean Jackson, and rookie Byron Jones has the talent to blanket Jordan Reed, so Cousins might be scrambling to find open targets. Jackson could be a key player for Washington. He hasn't been the Cowboys killer in his career his reputation suggests, catching just two TDs in 12 career games against them, but Dallas can't afford to let him free on the deep routes he loves. ... Jason Witten is two catches away from 1,000 for his illustrious career, and he should just be able to get there in this one. Romo's loss has flatlined Witten's production this year (he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1, and the 505 receiving yards he's on pace for would be a career low), but even a declining Witten stuck with Matt Cassel as his QB has still caught at least two passes in every game this season. Hitting that milestone on a Monday night would be the next best thing to doing it at home.

Predictions: McFadden runs for 90 yards and a TD. Cassel has a good game, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Witten and Cole Beasley. Alfred Morris runs for 60 yards while Matt Jones chips in 60 combined yards and a score. Cousins throws for 230 yards and a long TD to Jackson, but also gets picked off twice. Cowboys, 27-17

Last week's record: 9-7, 10-6 ATS
Season to date: 106-70, 93-77-6 ATS