Matchup Edge: Crisis Averted

Baltimore vs. Indianapolis

Open: 41 O/U, BAL -12.5
Press time: 41 O/U, BAL -13

Baltimore should absolutely flatten the Colts. Alex Collins has to carry one of the top projections of the week, particularly given his recent promotion in the passing game – an arrangement that should endure with Jeremy Maclin out this week. Joe Flacco should have a high floor against the Colts defense, and Mike Wallace would be the top suspect for catching his big gains. You do worry about the ceiling given that the Colts don't look capable of making this game competitive, though. Chris Moore would be my favorite bet to replace Maclin at receiver, but the former Cincinnati wideout is a long shot.

Green Bay vs. Minnesota

Open: 42 O/U, MIN -9
Press time: 41 O/U, MIN -9

What's the case for Baltimore in the previous game is pretty much the case for Minnesota here. Green Bay looks completely toothless at this point, and they match up so poorly that they should probably get put on shutout watch.

So several players should produce for Minnesota, but where will that usage go? Green Bay is more vulnerable to the pass than the run, and you'd generally expect two of Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph to provide useful fantasy returns. But there might not be a great deal of passing volume to go around in a game where Minnesota might be capable of winning without throwing the ball a single time.

Latavius Murray might be the most reliable bet for volume given that he is Minnesota's go-to option when it's time to run out the clock. He's also the general lead runner for Minnesota, and its top short-yardage option. If Jerick McKinnon has the better fantasy day, he'll likely have to do it on lesser carry volume.

Cincinnati vs. Detroit

Open: 43.5 O/U, DET -3
Press time: 44 O/U, DET -3

I realize A.J. Green and the rest of the Bengals might be checked out at this point, particularly since their coach told them that he can't wait to go on this vacation that he's been planning for the last few months, but I still like Green as a tournament pick in DFS. Other top-priced receivers like Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas have substantially higher floors, true, but they're not capable of blowing up a game like Green can. Among the top receivers of this week, Green is unique for his upside scenario, great as the risk might otherwise be. Andy Dalton doesn't project so well against a Detroit defense that's more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, but if Green can't get open then Tyler Kroft at least gets a favorable draw against a Lions defense allowing 9.1 yards per target to tight ends to this point.

With Joe Mixon cleared of his concussion, I like his chances of producing against a Lions defense that's allowed 4.2 yards per carry and just under six yards per target to running backs to this point. Gio Bernard might keep his foot in the door enough to mess up Mixon's workload a bit, though, so I'd limit Mixon to season-long flex spots and DFS tournaments despite how enticing the matchup is at the price.

Theo Riddick should return to the lead running back role now that his wrist injury isn't an issue, and he'll carry an interesting projection so long as you consider Detroit the favorite. One thing that could complicate his game, though, is the fact that Detroit will be without guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson, leaving the Lions especially vulnerable to Geno Atkins, who could single-handedly derail a handful of plays.

If Atkins isn't a disaster for the Detroit offensive line, Matthew Stafford should otherwise project reasonably well. The Bengals defense is getting healthier, but they're a team that struggles to maintain possession and otherwise is on quit watch since their coach did it months ago. Marvin Jones gets the revenge game narrative against his former team, and I think you give the advantage to him over William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick. Golden Tate might have easier coverage on the inside, and the same would apply to Eric Ebron from the tight end spot. I have no idea whether Ebron's recent emergence will sustain itself, but his box scores from the last two weeks were much more in line with my pre-season expectations than the numbers he's generally put up this year.

Chicago vs. Cleveland

Open: 38.5 O/U, CHI -7
Press time: 38 O/U, CHI -6.5

DeShone Kizer didn't look good against Baltimore last week, and now he goes on the road to face Vic Fangio, who I consider one of the more tactically adept defensive coordinators in the league. The Browns have the personnel advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman running the routes, but I worry that Fangio can put up enough disguised coverages that Kizer won't correctly anticipate when Gordon and Coleman get open.

Perhaps Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson can get something going on the ground against a Bears defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs this year, but that they've held backs to a YPT of just 4.9 bodes poorly for the chances of Crowell or Johnson providing much as receivers. That I expect Kizer to struggle also harms their projections, both for volume and efficiency reasons.

Jordan Howard is the biggest name among the Bears fantasy assets, and he probably has the highest floor among them despite the problematic matchup. Famous for being good against the run and bad against the pass, the Bears are one offense the Browns might be able to ignore the pass against and pay surprisingly little for the fact. Mitchell Trubisky doesn't have much to work with, and he's raw enough anyway, so it's not a given that he takes advantage of Cleveland's poor coverage.

With that said, there should be at least one Chicago pass catcher who does something useful here, and Kendall Wright is the best candidate given his mammoth target volume over the last two weeks. The Browns figure to be without standout slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun, moreover, and their propensity to use zone coverages bodes well for Wright's slot work, too. Dontrelle Inman was running ahead of Wright in the wideout rotation not long ago, and he's some threat to show back up here, but Wright has all the momentum with 24 targets in the last two weeks compared to Inman's two. I also like the matchup for the monstrous tight end Adam Shaheen, but that the Bears love to use him so much as a blocker makes him a boom-or-bust option.

New Orleans vs. Atlanta

Open: 53 O/U, NO -6
Press time: 52.5 O/U, NO -6

It's reassuring for Julio Jones that he was able to turn 11 targets into 98 yards the last time he saw the Saints, as Marshon Lattimore isn't usually so generous. Still, the matchup is a brutal one for Jones, because Lattimore is in contention with Jalen Ramsey for the distinction of top corner in the league. Jones is capable of transcending, so he remains a solid GPP option at the least in DFS, and you're of course starting him in season-long situations.

Matt Ryan might be able to hit Mohamed Sanu for useful production when Jones isn't open, and as much happened the last time these two faced, with Sanu finishing with six catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Ryan finished that game with only 221 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, however, and the fact that he has just 18 touchdowns on the year hints at some real underlying dysfunction rather than just fluky noise. If Ryan does better this time around, perhaps the absence of safety and slot corner Kenny Vaccaro had something to do with it.

Devonta Freeman is probably my favorite DFS value among Falcons players this week, as he already demonstrated the recent ability to run on this Saints defense. He took 24 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown the last time around, and while the return of Tevin Coleman figures to hurt Freeman's carry volume some, it would be a major error on Atlanta's part if Freeman falls short of 20 touches from scrimmage.

For the Saints, everything is the same as usual. They score steadily and almost automatically, and with the same predictable usage almost always: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram. That the Saints are thin at receiver makes Kamara and Ingram almost more than running backs – they're picking up the wide receiver slack that used to go more toward players like Willie Snead. Ted Ginn has been invisible lately, but he's worth a GPP shot in any Saints game with a projected total like this one.

Kansas City vs. Miami

Open: 45 O/U, KC -10
Press time: 43.5 O/U, KC -10.5

With two of the slowest-paced offenses in the league facing off, I think this game is one where we might want to project some general regression in the anticipated outputs we're accustomed to from the players involved. That's not to say that Kareem Hunt can't have a huge game against Miami's vulnerable defense, but rather the odds of all of Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce hitting their projections is harmed somewhat by what could be a reduced number of plays.

With that said, the fantasy stars in this game almost universally have favorable projections. Hunt is a threat to Miami both on the ground and through the air, and Tyreek Hill can run circles around Miami's corners. Travis Kelce also poses a major mismatch against a Miami defense that's allowed 828 yards and eight touchdowns to tight ends so far.

Even the Miami side generally has encouraging matchups. I'll never be able to trust Jay Cutler, but Jarvis Landry and one of DeVante Parker or Kenny Stills project well here. Kansas City's slot coverage is quite bad, so Landry especially has a nice matchup. Marcus Peters is good enough that you don't like the matchup so much for whichever outside receiver is lined up against him, but whoever is covering the other outside wideout would likely get beat regardless of whether it's Parker or Stills that they're on.

Conventional wisdom might tell you to fade Kenyan Drake given the spread, and the potential return of Damien Williams (shoulder) is somewhat concerning, too. Still, Drake has been one of the most impressive running backs in the league of late, and his ability to do damage as a pass catcher assures his workload somewhat even if Miami falls behind. Maybe you move away from him in DFS cash games, but for tournaments and season-long I think you have to like Drake against a Kansas City defense that's allowed 4.2 yards per carry to running backs this year.

New England vs. Buffalo

Open: 47 O/U, NE -10.5
Press time: 47 O/U, NE -11.5

Tom Brady hasn't posted a useful box score in a few weeks, but out of those I'd only call the Miami game an actually poor showing by Brady. Against the Bills he didn't accumulate volume in a game that wasn't competitive, and against Pittsburgh the yardage was there but the touchdowns lagged. The Bills aren't a great matchup to correct this trend, but playing at home and against a Buffalo defense that's generally struggled to stop the pass in the season's second half, I'd bet on Brady bouncing back here. That Rob Gronkowski probably can't be covered by this defense helps out on that front, and the absence of Rex Burkhead (knee) could force the Pats to lean a bit more on the pass, at least early in the game. Brandin Cooks was a dud the last time these teams played, but I still doubt the corners can cover him deep.

Dion Lewis is close to RB1 territory with Burkhead's absence, as Mike Gillislee can't compete for passing down snaps and is probably behind Lewis in the short-yardage pecking order, too. The Bills run defense has been notoriously bad since trading away its best player, Marcell Dareus, so Lewis should prove efficient if not explosive on his carries, too. Defensive tackle Kyle Williams is also questionable with a groin issue.

LeSean McCoy's remarkable talent makes it tough to count him out in any particular scenario, but this one is among the more discouraging ones he's stepped into recently. The Patriots defense has been tough since its brutal opening month, and that this game is on the road doesn't help the Bills' chances of projecting for a competitive game. McCoy is also nicked up, playing through a knee ailment.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 46.5 O/U, CAR -9
Press time: 46.5 O/U, CAR -10.5

Jameis Winston was able to put up big numbers against a competent Atlanta pass defense. He should therefore project for a decent game against a Carolina pass defense that's been worse of late, and compounds its vulnerability to the pass by funneling offenses toward it with its strong run defense. Of course, since it's Winston absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

What is all but guaranteed is ten or more targets for Mike Evans, especially with DeSean Jackson out. Evans' season has been weird and frustrating, but that sort of volume against Carolina projects for a productive day. I'm also irresponsibly high on Chris Godwin, who is one of the top receiver prospects in the league by my estimation. With Jackson and O.J. Howard out and Cameron Brate dealing with injury, Godwin could hit double-digit targets, too. He did as much against the Jets in a start earlier this year.

For Carolina, Cam Newton figures to be the quarterback chalk this week, and for very good reason. The Tampa Bay secondary is just a joke, and Newton is playing at a very high level right now. Devin Funchess is a slight concern due to his shoulder issue, but he should be able to get open. If he isn't, Greg Olsen showed enough last week that he's back in the elite tight end conversation. Damiere Byrd also projects well relative to his DFS price. He's been doing short route work lately, but Byrd is a downfield target by trade. These Tampa corners are more than capable of losing him.

Christian McCaffrey was highly encouraging last week, and he appears to have finally hit his stride. Funchess' shoulder has to solidify McCaffrey's target projection just a bit, and he's done enough on the ground lately that he's probably a solid RB2 and borderline RB1 in PPR scoring. Jonathan Stewart has a low floor of course, but he also is a decent bet for a short-yardage touchdown or two against a beat up Tampa Bay defense that wasn't good in the first place.

Tennessee vs. Rams

Open: 49 O/U, LAR -6.5
Press time: 47 O/U, LAR -6.5

This should be a laugher. The Titans offense is completely offline, and Wade Phillips vs. Mike Mularkey should be an amusing if morbid spectacle. If you're chasing some part of the Tennessee offense, Delanie Walker would seem to be the best bet.

Todd Gurley is playing out of his mind right now, and even against a competent Tennessee run defense you have to project him for a big game. Jared Goff gets a more favorable matchup against a comparatively weak Tennessee pass defense, but he might not need to do a whole lot for the Rams to establish a big lead. Two but not more than that of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Sammy Watkins should provide useful returns. Kupp would have had a concerning draw against Logan Ryan in the slot, but Ryan hasn't practiced all week with an ankle injury. If not Kupp, Woods would be the best bet to lead the Rams in targets. Watkins will be open constantly against whoever is covering him, but there's no guarantee that Goff remembers he's on the field.

Jets vs. Chargers

Open: 42.5 O/U, LAC -7.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, LAC -6.5

Bilal Powell might get some cracks at the vulnerable Chargers run defense, and he should prove reasonably productive when he does. You still worry about his volume, though, given the Jets' heavy underdog status in this game. Bryce Petty could be a turnover issue against the Chargers' superb corner rotation. On the other hand, Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire are both out, so Powell's share percentage of backfield activity should be at its highest point of the year.

That I worry about Powell's game flow projection makes me feel that much better about Melvin Gordon's, and his projection would get a nice boost if Muhammad Wilkerson (discipline) remained out for the Jets. If Wilkerson is back, it would coincide with the unavailability of left tackle Russell Okung, which would mark a potentially significant hit to Gordon's blocking. Still, his defense could put him in favorable enough field positioning to make multiple touchdowns a possibility.

I'd be surprised if Hunter Henry's target volume went toward anyone but Keenan Allen, so I think the wideout has a brilliant projection this week against a Jets defense that hasn't defended the slot well this year. Against Buster Skrine or whoever else from whatever wideout position, Allen projects for a big game. I like Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin as talents, but I'm not convinced that Rivers will throw to them any more as a result of Henry's injury.

Washington vs. Denver

Open: 42 O/U, WAS -4
Press time: 40.5 O/U, WAS -3.5

I want nothing to do with Denver, and little with Washington. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib have me disinterested in Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson, respectively, which makes me sour on Kirk Cousins. The only pass catcher I can see stepping up for Cousins is Vernon Davis, if only because Crowder and Doctson should be covered so much, but Davis can only carry so much volume. Other than Davis, so long as Samaje Perine is out I like Kapri Bibbs in DFS despite the dubious matchup. The Washington defense should be able to rattle Brock Osweiler a bit, so I like Bibbs' chances of seeing volume in favorable field positioning. Plus, revenge game.

San Francisco vs. Jacksonville

Open: 42.5 O/U, JAC -5.5
Press time: 42 O/U, JAC -4.5

I really like Jimmy Garoppolo and Marquise Goodwin, but I just can't see how they get much going against this Jaguars defense. Goodwin has some matchup-proof level of appeal given his unique ability to strike deep, but the prospects of reliable, high-volume production just isn't easy to imagine against this secondary. If Goodwin isn't making plays, I can't imagine any other 49ers pass catcher stepping up.

So if the game is to be as close as the spread implies, it would seem to bank on some sort of solid showing from Carlos Hyde, who has shown the ability to step up against good defenses at times. But this Jaguars defense has been different against the run since acquiring Marcell Dareus, so it's difficult for me to feel that great about Hyde's matchup.

Leonard Fournette is the most interesting question about this game. Will he get a big workload, or will his injury situation mess that up? If he gets a big workload, will he be healthy enough to play at a high level? Will the 49ers run defense, which has been strong since the return of Reuben Foster, contain Fournette even if he is healthy? It's enough questions that I probably won't pick Fournette in DFS, though if he can gain traction against the 49ers, it would set up a big game against their uptempo squad.

We're presumably all still skeptical of Blake Bortles, but on paper everything appears to be in his favor for this matchup, even if he's without Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns. Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook have shown enough that you can like the skill position matchups for Bortles, and if the 49ers run defense creates a funnel toward the pass, Bortles' volume should benefit. Cole may be the chalkier DFS pick after last week's big game, but I prefer Westbrook's outside playmaking over Cole's slot targets, good as he's been there.

Giants vs. Arizona

Open: 40.5 O/U, ARZ -5
Press time: 40 O/U, ARZ -3

Eli Manning is hard to buy into these days, but I think the nature of the Arizona defense could allow useful fantasy outputs for Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, who tend to work in the part of the field where the Arizona defense is most vulnerable. Not only should the strength of the Arizona run defense funnel a bit more usage toward the pass, but Shepard and Engram should mostly avoid Patrick Peterson, and the other coverage candidates for Arizona would project as mismatches for Shepard and Engram. Shepard and Engram were contained by a zone-heavy Dallas defense that clogged the middle of the field, but Arizona has more man-coverage tendencies similar to the Eagles.

For the Arizona side, I'm not as high on Larry Fitzgerald as most this week. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is still one of the top corners in the league, and his spot before Janoris Jenkins' injury was at the slot. He has moved away from the slot in some games, but in at least the case of Jamison Crowder it was because DRC moved outside in three-wide slots, presumably to follow Josh Doctson. With Arizona it's Fitzgerald who's the WR1, so I can't imagine DRC leaving the slot to cover someone else. If Fitz is running against DRC, I'm giving DRC the advantage. Ricky Seals-Jones has a much better draw against the Giants, but who knows who will play the TE snaps for the Cardinals.

Dallas vs. Seattle

Open: 47 O/U, DAL -3
Press time: 47 O/U, DAL -5

Dallas is the favorite in this game but I don't understand why. They didn't look good against Oakland, a bad team, and even this battered Seattle secondary should eat alive the Dallas route runners. So the good-case scenario for Dallas is one where Ezekiel Elliott carries the team to victory. Will he be able to do so with his two tackles playing hurt, and Seattle likely to return standout linebacker K.J. Wright? I'm not skeptical of Elliott himself, but the circumstances don't appear ideal to me. Of course, Elliott is more than capable of a big game even if Dallas loses. But I don't think he'll get much help from his passing game or defense.

I consider the Seahawks the favorite in this game, so I generally like the options on offense. The Dallas defense tends to bend even when it doesn't break, but a player like Russell Wilson should be able to break it. I especially think that because Demarcus Lawrence is playing through a back issue, while Dallas might be without elite defensive tackle David Irving a third straight week, and linebacker Anthony Hitchens is at risk to miss the game with a knee issue. Doug Baldwin should be able to get the better of Orlando Scandrick, and Anthony Brown is beatable whenever Paul Richardson or Tyler Lockett are running routes at him. I prefer Richardson over Lockett at this point, but Lockett can make plays from time to time, too. I doubt Jimmy Graham has much yardage-from-scrimmage potential, but he does project for scoring opportunities any time Wilson does.

Mike Davis was a complete dud last week, but if Seattle does emerge as the winner in this game, it would likely entail a game flow that would prove profitable for Davis. It would help his projection if Hitchens and Irving are out for Dallas.