Job Battles: New Faces in Denver

This Job Battles article will look at the Philadelphia running backs behind Miles Sanders, the Titans tight ends, and Denver wide receivers. 

To view the past breakdowns click on the following:

-DET RBs/WAS RBs/PHI WRs
-IND RBs/SF RBs/SF WRs
-KC RBs/WAS WRs/ATL WRs
-TB RBs/NE WRs/LV WRs
-Rams TEs/PIT RBs/ATL RBs
 

Philadelphia Backup Running Backs
 

Boston Scott
Corey Clement
Elijah Holyfield
Michael Warren
Adrian Killins

Miles Sanders (8.65 NFFC, 11.37 BB10) is unchallenged as Philadelphia's top runner, and his current ADP implies that investors expect him to definitively run away with the production of this backfield. There's still a persisting interest in presumed backup Boston Scott (133.88 NFFC, 127.84 BB10) all the same, as Scott broke out in the final month of the 2019 season, accumulating 82 PPR points in his final four games.

Scott (5-7, 195) was on the prospect radar even before he properly broke out for the Eagles, because he previously generated some hype as a 2018 sixth-round pick of the Saints out of Louisiana Tech. Minimally utilized but highly explosive in college, Scott looked like a potential understudy to Alvin Kamara thanks to his uncommon explosiveness and quickness (4.40 40, 38.5-inch vertical, 121-inch broad jump, 10.82 agility score). The Saints cut him late in his rookie season, though, and he got to work with the Eagles just before the end of the 2018 rookie season.

Scott's abilities seem reliable at this point – we know for certain he has the athleticism to keep producing in the NFL, and his work late last year gave some evidence of his skill set. The question is whether last year's role will exist in the 2020 offense, and whether Scott can reclaim that usage during the reshuffling of the Eagles offense. As great as Scott was last year, he might not have played at all if not for the shoulder injury to Jordan Howard. Not just that, but Scott's heightened activity occurred just as the Eagles played an unsustainably high number of snaps in the games in question, while the Eagles receivers and tight ends were ravaged with injuries. The result was an offense that needed to throw the ball with maximum urgency, but with fewer WR and TE resources than ever to meet that urgency. Scott and Sanders both benefited as pass catchers as a result.

If the Eagles pass defense improves, lessening the urgency on the Eagles offense, then the Eagles might take some of those pass-catching reps from last year and turn them into carries. In this particular script scenario it's worth wondering if the Eagles might have a renewed use for the Howard sort of runner, a bruiser between the tackles rather than a hurry-up back. In the event that they do, it's possible that Scott or even Sanders might lose that rep to one of the Eagles' power back options: Corey Clement, Elijah Holyfield, or Michael Warren. All three are former undrafted players, but all three are also more natural runners between the tackles than Sanders or Scott, and at much denser builds.

In the event that the Eagles backfield splits its reps between the bruiser function (Howard) and the pass-catching big-play back (Sanders/Scott), then it might leave Scott to function more like Sanders' backup rather than a 1B option. Given Clement's track record with the Eagles, he has to be the slight favorite for that power specialist role. Injuries have been a major issue for him even going back to his final year at Wisconsin, however, so Clement might be vulnerable to the less athletic but less injury prone duo of Holyfield and Warren. Both Holyfield and Warren are slow, however, so if it's big-play ability that the Eagles want then they can't offer it.

Last and probably least, Adrian Killins is an interesting burner who made a lot of big plays at UCF, but at around 5-7, 160 pounds he just isn't a realistic candidate for more than a handful of snaps in a given game, if that. He might need to join the practice squad and add upwards of 25 pounds before he can play.

Tennessee Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith
Anthony Firkser
MyCole Pruitt

If not for the Broncos (Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam), the Titans would have the fastest tight end rotation in the league. They're also the smallest tight end room in the NFL – Jonnu Smith (6-3, 248), MyCole Pruitt (6-2, 251), and Anthony Firkser (6-2, 246) are all undersized by inline tight end standards.

Despite their nearly identical respective builds, the three tight ends functioned very differently in 2019. Pruitt (448 snaps, 88 routes) was largely a blocking specialist, finishing the year with just eight targets. Although he's fast (4.58 40), the Titans have shown little interest in utilizing him as a route runner.

Firkser was the opposite of Pruitt, playing sparingly (202 snaps) but working almost entirely as a receiver, running 129 routes and drawing 24 targets. Firkser caught 14 of those for 204 yards and one touchdown, then in the playoffs drew five targets on 48 snaps, catching three for 45 yards and two touchdowns. Firkser was a highly productive pass catcher at Harvard and has thus far been consistently productive as an NFL pass catcher too, albeit in a limited role to this point.

Smith (141.0 NFFC, 132.45 BB10) functioned somewhere in between Pruitt and Firkser, consistently providing explosive production as a pass catcher (79.5 percent catch rate, 9.8 YPT) but also blocking quite a lot. Smith ran 224 routes on 718 snaps, drawing only 45 targets while blocking on 27 percent of his pass play snaps. Firkser, by contrast, blocked on just six percent of his pass play snaps, while Pruitt's figure towers at 44 percent.

Delanie Walker played 201 snaps as well, drawing 31 targets, which means he was utilized like Firkser was. As much as Walker's exit from the Tennessee offense should be a boon for Smith, Smith's investors must note that Smith's usage would need to change for him to secure more of that benefit than Firkser, who actually played the Walker position a year ago. It's not just in the blocking rates – the Titans utilized Smith in a fundamentally different position than Firkser and Walker, and you can see it in the nature of their targets. Whereas Smith generated 0.31 air yards per snap (23rd percentile), Firkser raced to 1.09 (88th percentile), and Walker drew 1.16 (90th percentile). That's because the Titans refused to throw to Smith downfield, leaving his ADOT at 5.0 yards (19th percentile) while Firkser (9.2 yards, 80th percentile) and Walker (7.5 yards, 62nd percentile) ran further downfield.

Denver Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton
Jerry Jeudy
KJ Hamler
Tim Patrick
DaeSean Hamilton
Tyrie Cleveland
Kendall Hinton

Courtland Sutton (49.24 NFFC, 51.76 BB10) is the clear WR1 here after a remarkably promising second season out of SMU, from which the Broncos selected Sutton in the second round of the 2018 draft. A borderline elite athlete at 6-3, 218, Sutton's combination of adequate speed (4.54 40), standout explosiveness (35.5-inch vertical, 124-inch broad jump), and freakish quickness (10.68 agility score) make him a legitimate prototypical NFL No. 1 wideout. Playing mostly outside, Sutton drew an improbable 43 percent of Denver's air yardage, registering at the 99th percentile. Sutton's playmaking ability demands high volume of usage, and in addition to the volume he safely outplayed the Denver baseline as well, posting a 58.5 percent catch rate at 8.9 YPT in an offense that completed 61.9 percent of its passes at 6.7 YPA.

It will be interesting to see how well Sutton can hold off rookie 15th overall selection Jerry Jeudy (105.59 NFFC, 108.11 BB10), who was widely regarded as the best wide receiver in the 2020 draft. Jeudy (6-1, 193) is a totally different player from Sutton, one who projects to run more routes from the slot and at a lower depth of target. Jeudy's route-running ability is highly advanced, and his ability to create separation might look reminiscent of Stefon Diggs. With Sutton established as the clear WR1 in Denver, Jeudy might need to serve as more of a chain-moving target while Sutton goes for the downfield KO. Of course, quarterback Drew Lock is unproven and the Broncos already have a first-round tight end prospect in Noah Fant, so Jeudy's arrival could present a noticeable crunch on Sutton's share of the Denver passing game. If nothing else, Jeudy is clearly far better than Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton, who were otherwise Sutton's primary target competition in 2019. For 2020 expect Patrick to serve as a backup at outside receiver, while Hamilton hopes to make the final roster as a backup slot receiver.

Rookie second-round pick KJ Hamler (285.76 NFFC, 240.22 BB10) presents another wildcard for this scenario, because the precocious burner out of Penn State has legitimate star potential of his own. However, at just 5-9, 178 and only 21 on July 8, Hamler is probably a better bet for the future than the short term. Between his age disadvantage and still-developing frame, Hamler might be hard-pressed to contribute as much more than a decoy and gadget threat, especially with top talents like Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant already fighting for precious few targets. Think of Hamler more like Mecole Hardman – a potential star and elite big-play threat, but a year or two away as he hones his raw yet remarkable natural talents.

Tyrie Cleveland was the third receiver selected by the Broncos in the most recent draft, a seventh-round pick out of Florida. At 6-2, 209 Cleveland definitely has some athletic tools to work with (4.46 40, 39.5-inch vertical, 126-inch broad jump). He should primarily compete with Patrick for backup snaps at outside receiver. Kendall Hinton was undrafted out of Wake Forest, but the former quarterback was highly productive as a slot receiver in 2019 and is a nice sleeper to kick Hamilton off the roster for the backup slot position behind Jeudy and Hamler.