Job Battles: Decoding the Rams Tight Ends

This Job Battles post will look at the Rams tight ends, Pittsburgh backup running backs, and Atlanta backup running backs. All ADP data cited is from the past week.

Rams Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett
Brycen Hopkins
Johnny Mundt

The Rams went into last year utilizing Gerald Everett (216.85 NFFC, 202.72 BB10) as their pass-catching specialist at tight end, relegating Tyler Higbee (79.35 NFFC, 86.34 BB10) to a blocking specialist role. This did not last, of course, first because Everett suffered a knee injury in Week 12, and then because Higbee vastly outplayed Everett from that point. In the final two weeks of the year Everett was relegated to third-string tight end, playing four snaps in the final two games (zero snaps in one of the two).

When Higbee took over the pass-catching role, the Rams chose to scratch Everett instead of giving him a new, revised role. Johnny Mundt, playing 65 snaps in those two games, took over the blocking role that Higbee previously occupied, blocking on a whopping 51 percent of his passing down snaps.

Playing in Everett's former role, Higbee reached heights Everett never did previously. Despite finishing the year with a blocking percentage of 27 percent on passing downs, a big contrast to Everett's figure of 13 percent, Higbee was utterly dominant as a pass catcher, catching 77.5 percent of his targets at 8.2 YPT in an offense that completed 62.8 percent of its passes at 7.4 YPA. Everett was a drain on the offense in comparison, catching 37 of 60 targets for 408 yards (60.7 percent catch rate, 6.8 YPT).

Rather than an anomaly due for regression, Higbee's breakout is pretty clearly explained by a shift in game plan, which was made because Higbee outplayed Everett. According to Pro Football Focus, Higbee averaged nearly an entire yard more per route run (2.6) than Everett (1.65), so the Rams have no incentive to put Higbee back in a blocking role in a misguided attempt to jumpstart Everett, who has never produced in the NFL. Before the Rams tried to make Higbee a blocker he was known as a dangerous pass-catching threat at Western Kentucky, which is why the Rams spent a fourth-round pick on him in the first place. Higbee had a concerning injury history in college, including a chronic knee issue that prevented him from participating in athletic testing, but there's in any case reason to believe that Higbee's durability is a bigger threat to his fantasy value than the presence of Everett.

It is possible, though, that the Rams use formations they did not in 2019, allowing Everett to get reps despite his inferiority to Higbee as a receiver and to Mundt as a blocker. The Rams subtracted Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley from the offense, so it's possible that usage is reallocated toward Everett at the expense of someone other than Higbee. It's also possible that the Rams just trade Everett for scraps as he heads into the final year of his rookie contract.

It can't be taken for a good sign for Everett that the Rams spent a fourth-round selection on Brycen Hopkins, a fellow undersized pass-catching tight end (6-4, 245). If Hopkins is any good, he's probably good at the same things Everett is supposed to be good at. With a 4.66 40 at 245, Hopkins' weight-adjusted speed isn't much worse than Everett, the ostensible athletic mismatch (4.62 at 239).

Pittsburgh Backup Running Backs

Benny Snell
Jaylen Samuels
Anthony McFarland

The Steelers have an interesting and varied collection of running back depth, which they might need with starter James Conner's mounting injury history, which includes extensive troubles in both the knee and shoulder areas at this point. Each of Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and Anthony McFarland offer something a little different to the Steelers offense.

McFarland (153.58 NFFC, 183.93 BB10) is the hottest name of the group in fantasy drafts to this point, which is understandable since he's the newest addition as a rookie fourth-round pick out of Maryland. He's also by far the most explosive of the Pittsburgh backs, boasting a 4.44 40 at 5-8, 208. McFarland was convincingly explosive in college, running for 1,648 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 245 carries (6.7 YPC), but rather than carry a full workload he split carries with pseudo-prospect Javon Leake. McFarland is also a bit unproven as a pass catcher, catching just 24 of 37 targets for 199 yards (64.9 percent catch rate, 5.4 YPT). After just turning 21 in March, McFarland offers tantalizing big-play upside and long-term potential generally despite his workload and pass-catching questions.

Samuels (261.12 NFFC, 234.57 BB10) is the most convincing pass-catching option of the group, both because he legitimately excels in that area and because McFarland and especially Snell are unproven in that capacity. At 6-0, 225 Samuels is arguably the best athlete of the three as well, logging above-average numbers across the board at a relatively high weight with a 4.54 40, 121-inch broad jump, and 11.21 agility score. The bad news is Samuels' pure running back instincts might be underdeveloped after splitting his time between running back, tight end, and wide receiver at North Carolina State, whereas McFarland and especially Snell are very comfortable running behind the offensive line.

Snell (241.42 NFFC, 238.22 BB10) is the worst pass-catching prospect of the three but by far the most proven between the tackles, as at 5-10, 224 he's built for heavy contact. That point is further supported by his workhorse history at Kentucky, where he accumulated 737 carries before turning 21. The Steelers selected him in the fourth round of last year's draft for that reason, and he held up well as a rookie on a bad offense, taking his 108 carries for 426 yards and two touchdowns (3.9 YPC). Snell will never be a big-play threat (4.66 40, 29.5-inch vertical), but he's a solid anchor runner who can withstand volume on high-contact carry assignments.

Unfortunately for fantasy investors, these three running backs are all so good at their respective strengths and vulnerable to their respective weaknesses that a committee approach appears the most likely outcome in the event of another Conner injury. Snell and McFarland should split most of the carries, perhaps with Snell getting more goal-line work and less work in hurry-up situations, while Samuels works primarily as a passing situation specialist.

Atlanta Backup Running Backs

Ito Smith
Brian Hill
Qadree Ollison

The Falcons front office has done a poor job of maintaining depth, maybe no position a better example of this than their running back rotation. Todd Gurley was of course signed to work as the lead runner, perhaps even as a proper workhorse. Gurley's profound knee issues make him an obvious injury liability, however, and rather than prioritizing depth in response the Falcons simply stayed put with their backup runners, who generally grade poorly even by backup standards. If they need to start in the event of a Gurley absence, the results might be rather disappointing.

With that said, Ito Smith (244.27 NFFC, 237.97 BB10) offers the team some enduring hope as a prospect despite injury and production issues to this point. A fourth-round pick out of Southern Mississippi two years ago, Smith played ahead of Jalen Richard in college and generally was the better player from scrimmage. Smith ran for 4,002 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final three seasons (5.9 YPC) while catching at least 40 receptions in each of those seasons, too. At 5-9, 200 he logged a 4.45 40, 36.5-inch vertical, and 119-inch broad jump at the Southern Mississippi pro day, indicating generally sufficient athleticism despite a skinny frame. Still just 24, Smith is the favorite for both the third-down back role and the general backup role behind Gurley.

Brian Hill (2017) and Qadree Ollison (2019) are a pair of former fifth-round picks who might have to face off for the remainder of snaps, as both are ostensibly bigger, between-the-tackles runners. Hill (6-1, 219) has some linear explosiveness but is a bit light for his frame and offers minimal elusiveness otherwise. Ollison (6-1, 228) is more sturdily built but less explosive than Hill, offering a 4.58 40, 29.5-inch vertical, and 114-inch broad jump. If Ollison plays much it might be to reprise his role as a goal-line specialist for Atlanta, as 13 of his Ollison's 22 carries occurred in the red zone (six within the five-yard line).

If Gurley were to miss time, there's a strong chance that Smith takes up the passing game functions while Hill or/and Ollison split the running between the tackles, especially in the red zone. Given the possibility to pad PPR points with receptions and a generally superior prospect profile, Smith is probably the clear target here behind Gurley.