Job Battles: Jones vs. Vaughn in TB

This Job Battles article will look at the Tampa Bay running backs, New England wide receivers (behind Edelman) and the Las Vegas wide receivers.

Tampa Bay Running Backs

Ronald Jones
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Raymond Calais
Dare Ogunbowale

Ronald Jones is listed first, but until recently his ADP and ranking was almost always behind Ke'Shawn Vaughn, the rookie third-round pick from Vanderbilt. It makes sense to rank them alongside each other in whichever order because it's difficult to tell where this backfield is headed. That confusion is true of the RB3/third-down back role as well, where incumbent Dare Ogunbowale might face a threat from Raymond Calais, a seventh-round speed back out of Lafayette.

Vaughn's fit on the roster might be comparable to free-agent departure Peyton Barber, who as a 25-year-old fourth-year back earned 347 snaps last year, drawing 154 carries and 24 targets. At 2.5 years younger and in his second season out of USC, Jones earned 422 snaps, attempting 172 carries and drawing 40 targets. The results were brutal in Barber's case (3.1 YPC), but Jones had his own complications, drawing the ire of coach Bruce Arians for poor blitz pickup at one point, and three fumbles on 203 touches from scrimmage isn't any good, either.

The biggest question for this backfield might have less to do with how good Vaughn is and more to do with whether Jones' prior struggles were attributable to his age disadvantage. Even as a third-year NFL runner, Jones is actually younger than the rookie Vaughn by three months. This could be important because Jones' struggles seem almost entirely mental, and it's easier to make mental mistakes when you're less experienced than your competition. When it comes to raw ability Jones comes across as clearly promising — at 5-foot-11, 220, he's bigger than Vaughn (5-10, 214) and likely the more athletic of the two. Jones' broken tackle rate from 2019 (19.8) ranked at the 87th percentile, which when combined with his low positive rush percentage (76.7, 24th percentile) implies that Jones ran well despite poor offensive line play. Jones averaged 1.1 more yards per carry than Barber, and he was more productive as a receiver (77.5 percent catch rate, 7.2 YPT) than the third-down specialist Ogunbowale (76.1 percent catch rate, 6.2 YPT).

It's possible that Jones and Vaughn could coexist in some productive way, making them both useful for fantasy owners. Vaughn earned praise for his passing-down work at Vanderbilt, and Ogunbowale probably shouldn't be on the field. Ogunbowale played 367 snaps in 2019, though — more than Barber — so perhaps Vaughn should be understood as a threat to Ogunbowale as much or more than a threat to Jones. Jones, Barber and Ogunbowale combined for 1,136 snaps last year, which entailed about three snaps per game where multiple running backs were on the field. Rather than Ogunbowale playing another 367 snaps, leaving Jones and Vaughn to fight over the remaining 750 or so, perhaps Jones can have about 500 of those and Vaughn could still get to 500 himself via Ogunbowale's shares.

Calais is the wild card of the bunch, but his tiny frame (5-8, 188) could reduce him to gadget functions rather than a regular, defined role. Calais was a highly effective big-play back at Lafayette, averaging 8.3 yards per carry over his final two seasons, but he projects for minimal rushing workload in the NFL and is unproven. as a pass catcher in the meantime.

New England Wide Receivers

Mohamed Sanu
N'Keal Harry
Marqise Lee
Damiere Byrd
Jakobi Meyers

Julian Edelman is, of course, unchallenged as New England's primary slot receiver and WR1 generally, so this will look at the players behind him in the rotation.

Mohamed Sanu was acquired for a second-round pick during the 2019 season, indicating a high valuation by the Patriots. Sanu was Atlanta's slot specialist, though, and with Edelman already running from the slot that leaves Sanu to play outside whenever New England isn't in a trips formation. It's difficult to tell how Sanu might have fared in this new role, because he played through a problematic ankle injury that required offseason surgery. Sanu's numbers suffered badly, drawing an encouraging 47 targets on 379 snaps but catching only 26 for just 207 yards (55.3 percent catch rate, 4.4 YPT). Numbers like that are plainly not viable, so hopefully Sanu can bounce back with the ankle in better shape. Turning 31 in August and slowish to begin with, there's a risk that Sanu just doesn't project especially well for outside snaps at this point, though.

If Sanu is unable to provide the returns Bill Belichick had in mind when he traded that second-round pick, then it puts that much more pressure on 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry to step up at outside wideout following a disappointing rookie season. Harry suffered a high ankle sprain in training camp that seemed to aggravate in a recurring fashion, landing him on IR to begin the year, which no doubt made it difficult for him to catch on. Playing 222 snaps in the final seven weeks, Harry drew 24 targets but caught just 12 for only 105 yards and two touchdowns (50 percent catch rate, 4.4 YPT). That's useless, and Harry didn't have an ongoing ankle issue to blame like Sanu could. The good news is that it's common for rookie wide receivers to struggle, especially when they're as young as Harry, who didn't turn 22 until mid-December. What's less common is college production like Harry provided at Arizona State, where he both carried the team's receiving volume while outplaying the team's efficiency baseline. Harry (6-2, 228) is also an uncommon athlete, boasting 4.53-second 40, 38.5-inch vertical and 122-inch broad jump on a big and developed frame.

If Harry can't make progress in his second year then the Patriots will hope injury reclamation project Marqise Lee to step up. When healthy, Lee's skill set works as easily in the slot as outside, perhaps making him one of the Patriots' more versatile wideout options. It's not clear what sort of condition Lee's problematic knee might be in with age 29 coming up in November — he suffered an ACL tear in August 2018 yet landed on the PUP list to start the 2019 season. That's an abnormally long recovery for that injury, indicating additional complications might have existed. As long as the knee is OK, though, and as long as his season-ending 2019 shoulder injury isn't an issue, then Lee could emerge as this team's WR2 behind Edelman.

Damiere Byrd is interesting for his burning speed and marginally productive season with Arizona last year (69.6 percent catch rate, 7.8 YPT), but at 5-9, 180, he's at risk of playing a decoy role. Jakobi Meyers is probably the last wide receiver of interest on this team, as he showed some interchangeable appeal between the slot and outside. Meyers had a big preseason and flashed at a couple points as an undrafted player out of North Carolina State, but it generally wasn't a good sign for him that the Patriots decided to cough up that second-round pick for Sanu instead of promoting Meyers to a higher role.

Las Vegas Wide Receivers

Hunter Renfrow
Tyrell Williams
Henry Ruggs
Bryan Edwards
Nelson Agholor
Zay Jones

Very quickly: expect Zay Jones to get cut if Nelson Agholor stays healthy. Agholor's deal is only one year and cheap ($1.0475 million), but his cap figure is fully guaranteed and as a result the Raiders can't save any money by cutting him.

Agholor played slot receiver with the Eagles, who selected him in the first round of the 2015 draft, but he endured some profound struggles there, specifically with drops. With Hunter Renfrow already locked in as the lead slot receiver, the Raiders might imagine Agholor as more of an outside route runner than Philadelphia did. The logic might track — the slot entails more contact than outside, so maybe Agholor will drop fewer passes if subjected to less contact. The Raiders might otherwise envision Agholor as the backup to Renfrow, though the Raiders have at least a couple other candidates to secure that role. Renfrow should be predictable for his part — Derek Carr relied on him heavily in 2019, throwing his way 71 times on just 445 snaps. Renfrow probably can't earn snaps or get open outside, though, so his upside is capped as long as his snap count is capped. Generally speaking, Renfrow can only play when the Raiders are in three-wide sets.

Tyrell Williams is the lead outside receiver and should play a three-down role as a result, but his target rate is so much lower than Renfrow's that he still projects for fewer targets. Williams tends to be situationally utilized, doing very well as a downfield threat but rarely presenting a viable target underneath or in the intermediate. Since his breakout 2016 season, which was largely subsidized by the absence of Keenan Allen, Williams has drawn only 198 targets on 2,357 snaps. Williams reliably catches over 60 percent of his targets at 10 or more yards per target — reflecting his excellence in this one particular area — but he seems to simply lack the skill set necessary to compete with Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller for underneath targets.

With Williams locked in outside and Renfrow appointed in the slot, there's one more outside wide receiver rep available in the Raiders' three-wide loadout. As the first receiver selected in the 2020 draft, Henry Ruggs probably has to be the favorite for most of those reps. It's possible that he gets eased in a bit just the same — his 4.27 speed will play right away at the NFL level, and his 5-11, 188-pound frame is plenty sufficient — but Ruggs won't turn 22 until late January and might show some rawness while playing with an age disadvantage. 

Not just that, but fellow rookie Bryan Edwards offers his own immediate upside despite more modest pedigree as a third-round pick. Whereas Ruggs was a sparingly used big-play specialist in a loaded Alabama wideout rotation, Edwards was a workhorse for South Carolina. Edwards (6-3, 212) lacks speed but is great at Wide Receiver Stuff, which is the only way you earn a starting role in the SEC as a 17-year-old true freshman. Edwards' prospect profile gains additional luster for the fact that he more or less matched the production of Deebo Samuel and Hayden Hurst despite being more than two years younger than Samuel and five years younger than Hurst. Edwards should be able to contribute both in the slot and outside, but as long as Williams and Renfrow are locked in then Edwards' snaps might primarily have to occur at the expense of Ruggs.

In the meantime, Renfrow and Williams are the only Raiders wideouts with their roles assured, though both come with their own categorical upside limitations. Ruggs has the most upside, but a crowded picture in the meantime might make it difficult for him to break through like his owners might hope in his rookie year, especially as an underclassman draft entrant.