Job Battles: Jackson's Brief Setback

Running Backs

Kerryon Johnson vs. Theo Riddick, DET

You'll notice I'm basically declining to address LeGarrette Blount at this point. According to USA Today's Erik Schlitt, Blount played 11 snaps yesterday. Stick a fork in him, etc.

The only remaining question is what the return of Riddick means for Johnson, and specifically with regard to passing situation tasks. I've seen some analysis that Riddick's return harms Johnson's pass-catching upside. I don't think that's especially true, except for maybe in a vacuum. But relative to Johnson's role before Riddick's return from injury, I don't think it's true.

That premise is that Johnson and Riddick are competing in the same arena at this point. The Golden Tate trade means that this is not especially true. Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay played nearly every snap together before that trade, but yesterday receiver TJ Jones only played 51 percent of the snaps. Riddick (in the slot) and the tight end rotation basically made up the difference. Riddick will continue to see plenty of backfield snaps, especially on third-down plays, but Johnson's snap and target share shouldn't worsen and could easily improve despite Riddick's return, because of the Tate trade. Blount's decline subsidizes some of Riddick's role, too. Johnson played 39 snaps yesterday, which is 56 percent of the snaps. Riddick played the exact same number. This will not be a zero-sum equation.

The Lions offensive line fell apart against the Vikings, and they have a few tough spots in the remaining schedule, but that line was murdering in the run game prior to Sunday. I think people are underestimating how good the Vikings defense still is and are putting too much stock in anomalous recent events. Danielle Hunter-Linval Joseph-Sheldon Richardson-Everson Griffen is just a devastating quartet to deal with.

Chris Carson vs. Mike Davis vs. Rashaad Penny, SEA

God I hate this team. So Carson leaves Sunday's game with a thigh injury, and from that point – despite involving Penny on the game's opening drive – almost every touch went to Davis, an objectively sub-replacement level running back. I become more certain every week that this stretch of productivity for Carson and Davis is only the result of the offensive line, so it torments me that Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer seem to only show increasing resolve to avoid testing the hypothesis.

I cannot imagine the mental state that would lead someone to spend a first-round pick on a running back, then rig the competition for him to get a featured role at 16 pounds overweight fresh off a broken finger to open the season, only to then refuse to play him after he lost the bad weight. That the Seahawks are competitive is merely a reminder that the dumbest people on the planet run absolutely everything, and only a conspiracy to prevent meritocracy keeps them employed.

Anyway, the hip has been something of a lingering issue for Carson since his surprise scratch prior to the Week 4 game against Arizona and the thigh can't be helping anything, so it looks like the Seahawks might need to play without him for a week or two. Penny is an objectively far, far superior talent to Davis, but the good news for Davis investors in the Seahawks coaches are not capable of caring. Even with fresh legs and the Seattle offensive line consistently blasting open big running lanes, Davis' rushing average on the year is down to 4.3 yards per carry. For his career he now has 636 yards on 189 carries (3.4 YPC). The Rams defense is trending downward and Davis is, to be fair, a good pass catcher at running back, so he could be surprisingly viable this week if Carson is out.

Duke Johnson vs. ???, CLE

I suppose the antagonist to Johnson in this scenario is just, like, Hue Jackson or something. There never was a reasonable cause for his complete disappearance from the Browns game plan in the first eight weeks, but the only change prior to yesterday's breakout game was the departures of Jackson and Todd Haley.

Be it Freddie Kitchens, Gregg Williams, or both, someone decided that the Browns should look into giving the ball to one of their best players. Johnson turned nine targets into nine catches for 78 yards and a touchdown right off the bat. He's still far from a safe option given that he had only one carry and Baker Mayfield won't throw 42 passes every week, but Johnson would be an All Pro candidate on a team like New Orleans or New England. I hold out the stubborn hope that he might get more carries in the future, too, because the idea that he's only a pass catcher is just completely wrong. Johnson is a very talented runner out of the backfield and it makes more sense to give Johnson seven carries and Nick Chubb 16 than to give Chubb 22 and Johnson only one. I say this as a militant fan of Chubb.

Lamar Miller vs. Alfred Blue, HOU

This is your presumably moot reminder that whenever Miller is a 'high' he's also a 'sell.' It never lasts.

Sunday's game against Denver was a close one, so the fact that Miller saw 12 carries to Blue's 15 can't be explained by a blowout context. As gloomy as my tone is regarding Miller, I wouldn't for a second read this as Houston viewing the two as equals. I would have to think the reason for this rotation was that Miller's nicks and bruises are simply catching up to him as they always do annually. In this particular case it was resulting in a productivity concern for the Texans rather than a longevity one, as Miller stumbled to just 21 yards on his 12 carries while Blue, who is not good, to be clear, outperformed him with 39 yards on his 15 carries.

The Texans played their hand right, getting the win while limiting Miller's exposure to contact, but there's no guarantee that his condition improves on any predictable basis, and he's otherwise liable for to aggravate something at all times.

Wide Receivers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb, GB

Valdes-Scantling is quickly establishing himself as one of the brightest young talents at receiver league-wide, and there's even less doubt that he's Green Bay's second-best wide receiver in the meantime.

It took a scratch day for Allison (groin) for MVS to remain in a prominent role against the Patriots, but the rookie has performed so well this year that it's well past time that Mike McCarthy demote Allison or/and Cobb on the basis of merit rather than health. In his last five weeks MVS has 353 yards and two touchdowns on 31 targets. He's still developing his intermediate and underneath skill sets, so that he's made such a consistently positive impact even in a raw state bodes extremely well for his long-term prospects. In the meantime, I think he's worth picking up and certainly worth holding on to regardless of how things go with Allison.

DeSean Jackson vs. Adam Humphries vs. Chris Godwin, TB

Prior to yesterday's game against Carolina the flow chart was very simple:

Jameis Winston → Good for Humphries, bad for Godwin, very bad for Jackson

Ryan Fitzpatrick → Very good for Jackson, kinda okay for Godwin, very bad for Humphries

The chart got all screwed up against the Panthers, as even with Fitzpatrick back in the duo of Jackson and Godwin was barely visible (four combined catches for 72 yards on seven targets) while Humphries went nuts (eight catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets). Humphries gets credit for making the most of his opportunity Sunday, but I think this was a one-off dictated by the matchup and the early struggles of the Buccaneers offense provoking a protracted garbage time session.

If you own Humphries in dynasty I would aggressively sell him, and if you don't own Godwin in dynasty I would seriously investigate an attempt to acquire him. Godwin would do everything Humphries has done in his role and better if he had been given the chance, but coach Dirk Koetter is obsessed with having a slot-looking wide receiver playing the slot rather than the player who's actually best at it. This will be the best game of Humphries' career, seriously.

The main initial reason for targets to funnel toward Humphries is the simple fact that corners James Bradberry and Donte Jackson respectively did a spectacular job against Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. If Evans or Jackson are open, Fitzpatrick is throwing to one of them. To bet on a persisting lead role for Humphries is to specifically bet that Evans and Jackson don't get open. With Winston it was a moot question – he wasn't throwing downfield no matter what the coverage. I think Evans and Jackson both emphatically bounce back going forward, assuming Fitzpatrick remains starter.

Paul Richardson vs. Josh Doctson vs. Maurice Harris, WAS

On the one hand, Harris' numbers from Sunday are pretty obviously the result of Alex Smith's dysfunctional checkdown game, and the 10 catches for 124 yards on 12 targets is a reflection of Washington's hopelessness rather than any particular amount of skill on the part of Harris, who was the sixth receiver on his college team as a senior behind non-entities Bryce Treggs, Kenny Lawler, Stephen Anderson, Darius Powe, and Trevor Davis.

Then again, Harris is Washington's slot guy as long as Jamison Crowder (ankle) is out, and we know Smith isn't going to reinvent himself as some sort of downfield killer, even with the Buccaneers up next. But the Buccaneers are up next, which means Harris would project for another fine day if Crowder is out again. The Tampa pass defense just isn't defending anything at all, and if Harris is open as Smith's most comfortable read then there's reason to think that Smith will seek the same comfort in that scenario as he always has.

Tight Ends

Jordan Thomas vs. Ryan Griffin vs. Jordan Akins, HOU

This is a tough situation to sort out, and unfortunately the truth is there's unlikely to be any result that's especially helpful for fantasy owners, at least outside of 2TE leagues. Each of these three tight ends offer different functions that may spike or sink their snap and/or target volume depending on the matchup, and a frequent rotation otherwise means it's tough to know who will even be on the field on whatever basis.

There are a few things we can pin down as certain truths, however. One of those is that Akins is the most capable route runner of the three, which he needs to be as the smallest at around 6-foot-3, 250 pounds. Akins' advanced age (26) is because he spent several years as a baseball prospect, more specifically a center fielder in the Rangers organization. So far this hasn't amounted to much for Akins, who has played just over 1/3 of Houston's snaps this year but has only nine catches for 89 yards on 14 targets. There's some cause for further concern in the fact that, even as a theoretically seam-stretching tight end, his average depth of target is just 3.5 yards. The guy who's supposed to get open downfield is not doing that.

The second truth is that Griffin is the obvious incumbent of the group with six years of experience in Houston and 123 career receptions. Even after missing two games due to illness, Griffin was on the field for 60 percent of Houston's snaps to this point in 2018. Like Akins, the various things Griffin has going for him haven't amounted to anything useful. He led Houston in tight end snaps as he returned from illness Sunday, yet he saw only two targets, resulting in a 13-yard reception. On the year his 27 targets resulted in 11 catches for 153 yards, including an unacceptable three drops. The guy is not a good receiver. His prominence is related to his in-line traits.

The third truth is that Thomas, even as the by far youngest of the trio (22 versus 26 for Akins and 28 for Griffin), is the one who easily has the most momentum. What's intriguing about Thomas is he has safely been the best pass catcher of the three, yet at 6-foot-6, 265 pounds he has the frame to eventually make Griffin obsolete even as a blocker. Thomas probably can't do that until 2019, but in the meantime those desperate for tight ends might want to keep a close eye on him. Despite playing fewer snaps than Griffin on Sunday (47 to 39) and seeing only one target, Thomas notably has four red-zone targets in the last two games. Griffin and Akins continue to fail, so it seems like Thomas is in position to continue his ascent. Dynasty league owners should feel great about his long-term prospects in a Deshaun Watson offense.