This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
One of the great things about guillotine leagues is that because they use a survivor-style format, you can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want. It's never too late to start a private league or join a public league on GuillotineLeagues.com.
With Week 1 in the books, we'll certainly see a lot of risers and fallers in average draft position this week. In the meantime, let's take a look at the worst picks by round based on the ADP data we have today. These are the players I'm avoiding at current cost. For this exercise, I'm going to exclude injured players, such as Puka Nacua and Jordan Love, who are obvious candidates to drop down the draft board.
Round 1 - Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
After Week 1 I'm still confident that Hurts is one of the safer guesses to be a top-5 fantasy quarterback. I just think that drafting a quarterback this early is a luxury, and the opportunity cost is too high. There are such great matchup-based QB fantasy starters that I'd rather use my valuable top picks on elite wide receivers and running backs. For example, I drafted Baker Mayfield as my top QB in the ninth round of the RotoWire Users League, and he outperformed every QB not named Josh Allen in Week 1.
Round 2 - Marvin Harrison, WR, Cardinals
This season I'm participating in two guillotine leagues, eight other redraft leagues and several Best Ball leagues, and I haven't drafted Marvin Harrison once. I understand the intrigue -- experts have been talking about him as a top NFL prospect since he was a freshman at Ohio State. But giving him a late first-round, early second-round grade in fantasy drafts is unprecedented and much too high a price for me to pay for any rookie.
Round 3 - C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
Stroud had an impressive rookie season in 2023, leading Houston to the playoffs, while playing very efficiently. However, he's being treated like an elite fantasy quarterback, which he is not. He offers little in terms of running the ball and finished behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love in both passing yards and TDs last season. He may belong ahead of them in the rankings but not 2 to 4 rounds earlier than them as he is now.
Round 4 - George Kittle, TE, 49ers
An argument could be made that Kittle is the most skilled, complete tight end in the NFL. The problem from a fantasy perspective is that his usage is wildly inconsistent. Weeks 1 through 7 of 2023 are a prime example, as his receiving yardage went from 19 to 30 to 90 to 9 to 67 to 1 to 78, and his only touchdowns during that stretch came in Week 5. If you started him on an even week during that period, Kittle did not protect you from getting chopped. If I miss on a TE earlier, I'd rather wait and get Kyle Pitts or Evan Engram (despite his lousy start to the season).
Round 5 - Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins
It was a disappointing Week 1 performance for Mostert, but I'm not going to read too much into it. Miami's run game got shut down, and the Dolphins were playing from behind all game, opening things up for De'Von Achane to take over as top back in the receiving game.
Mostert will get more opportunities going forward, but I do believe Najee Harris, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed and several others belong ahead of him.
Round 6 - Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
We love Chicago's weapons, and Williams has all the tools to be a great quarterback. However, in a guillotine league, where playing it safe keeps you alive, I'm avoiding rookie quarterbacks at this cost. He's going ahead of much more reliable options like Purdy and Goff.
Round 7 - Curtis Samuel, WR, Bills
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, and Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman are in. I project the one holdover from last year, Khalil Shakir, to end up as the leading receiver for Buffalo, while the newcomers will be inconsistent. I'd take Samuel or Coleman for my Best Ball team, but there's too much uncertainty week to week to be rostered on my guillotine league teams.
Round 8 - Cole Kmet, TE, Bears
Let's go back to Chicago for another player I'm avoiding this season. Kmet has been a solid fantasy tight end the past three seasons, but his role is sure to be diminished with the additions of Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett. With just one catch on one target in Week 1, my concerns were confirmed.
Round 9 - Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins
We're nearing the point of the draft where you could argue that there are no bad picks. The problem with Wright is that he's buried on the depth chart. As expected, Mostert and Achane split snaps nearly evenly, while Jeff Wilson contributed 5 carries on 10 snaps as the no. 3 back in the rotation. Wright was inactive. While his potential in the Dolphins offense is certainly attractive, this is too early to draft the fourth running back on a team's depth chart.
Rounds 10-14 Post-Hype Rookie Receivers
In the very last rounds of a draft this deep, we're hoping to find a winning lottery ticket like Puka Nacua or Tank Dell. Keep in mind that both Nacua and Dell had immediate roles with their teams last season, so we should be able to use Week 1 results to help us filter out the players who don't stand a chance to produce at that level this season. Ricky Pearsall (reserve/non-football injury), Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Javon Baker and Malachi Corley are all popular late-round fantasy draft picks who are buried deeper on their teams' depth charts than we may have anticipated and, therefore, would need multiple breaks to go their way just to get enough snaps to contribute to a fantasy team this season.
How Do Guillotine Leagues Work?
Guillotine Leagues are the most competitive way to play fantasy football. It's like traditional fantasy football, with a few twists.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Because it's a survivor-style format, you can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want!
Public and Private Leagues are open, survive the chop, try GuillotineLeagues.com.
