The big story of Week 2 was injuries, which means the big story of Week 3 — at least for fantasy football purposes — is figuring out how teams will replace their missing players. Some cases, like Mike Davis filling in for Christian McCaffrey, come with a reasonably high level of confidence regarding playing time, while other situations — the Giants backfield comes to mind — appear rather messy.
Here we focus on weekly matchups rather than injuries or hot waiver adds, but I'll also include some important information on player roles and usage, often borrowing the work I did earlier this week in Hidden Stat Line: Week 2 Backfield Usage and Hidden Stat Line: Targets, Routes & Snaps. I normally recommend checking those out before waivers/FAAB, but they also come in handy for difficult lineup decisions later in the week.
Hopefully we can also help with some of those below, identifying the best and worst individual matchups of Week 3. If it feels like there aren't a ton of players with difficult matchups, that might be because scoring is way up across the league, with only a select few defenses appearing formidable. I mentioned it in the intro section of this same column last week, and took another look in my Week 3 Streaming Defenses article:
Injuries were the dominant story of Week 2, impacting NFL franchises and fantasy teams alike. We also saw the continuation of a couple trends from Week 1, with penalties and turnovers
The big story of Week 2 was injuries, which means the big story of Week 3 — at least for fantasy football purposes — is figuring out how teams will replace their missing players. Some cases, like Mike Davis filling in for Christian McCaffrey, come with a reasonably high level of confidence regarding playing time, while other situations — the Giants backfield comes to mind — appear rather messy.
Here we focus on weekly matchups rather than injuries or hot waiver adds, but I'll also include some important information on player roles and usage, often borrowing the work I did earlier this week in Hidden Stat Line: Week 2 Backfield Usage and Hidden Stat Line: Targets, Routes & Snaps. I normally recommend checking those out before waivers/FAAB, but they also come in handy for difficult lineup decisions later in the week.
Hopefully we can also help with some of those below, identifying the best and worst individual matchups of Week 3. If it feels like there aren't a ton of players with difficult matchups, that might be because scoring is way up across the league, with only a select few defenses appearing formidable. I mentioned it in the intro section of this same column last week, and took another look in my Week 3 Streaming Defenses article:
Injuries were the dominant story of Week 2, impacting NFL franchises and fantasy teams alike. We also saw the continuation of a couple trends from Week 1, with penalties and turnovers down from previous seasons, while overall scoring (25.2 points per team game) now is on track for an all-time high by a 1.8-point margin.
Offensive holding per game in 2018: 2.77 Offensive holding per game in 2019: 2.83 Offensive holding per game in 2020: 1.39
False Start per game in 2018: 2.21 False Start per game in 2019: 2.14 False Start per game in 2020: 1.71
The current averages for passing yards (248.7), yards per pass attempt (7.4) and net yards per pass attempt (6.6) would all set post-merger records if they held up over a full season, while 1.19 turnovers per team game and a 5.8 percent sack rate would represent new lows. A decline in offensive holding penalties seems to be playing a role, with 18 accepted in Week 1 and 27 in Week 2. Even that second number is a huge drop from the pre-2020 average.
With that in mind, we may need a slight upward adjustment for our threshold of what's considered good or acceptable for fantasy scoring, especially among quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Even at RB, despite the big-name injuries, there's a solid crop of 20 guys who appear locked in for more than a dozen touches nearly every week.
Davis should join that group over the next month, so he's worth a lineup spot even in a tough matchup with the Chargers, unless you're one of the lucky few who already had strong RBs and still managed to score the top waiver choice of the week (yes, I'm bitter). For the not so lucky, I've included my favorite Week 3 streaming picks at the bottom of the page.
Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some great tools for analyzing matchups:
Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.
Even with a soft schedule ahead, this might be the only time all season the Jags are favored by a field goal or more. It's not that Robinson needs an easy win in order to pile up volume, but he does need to avoid the type of blowout loss where Chris Thompson would get more work. The rookie has found himself in a pair of one-score games so far, averaging 16 carries, 2.5 targets and 105 total yards. He looks like a solid RB2 with enough talent to justify similar usage moving forward, while the Dolphins look like a flat-out mess again. Their overall rushing defense stats have been distorted by matchups with Cam Newton and Josh Allen, but it's not like the Dolphins have been stout against running backs, allowing 4.8 YPC on 44 totes.
Of course, Robinson isn't the only player with a favorable matchup Thursday night... nearly everyone in this game gets at least a small upgrade. Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and Isaiah Ford should find success against a Jacksonville secondary that has rookie corner CJ Henderson and little else, while RB Myles Gaskin — he of the 64 percent snap share, 5.5 targets and 74 yards per game — is in play as a low-end RB2 or FLEX.
Assuming he plays through minor chest and back injuries, DJ Chark is in a good spot for his first big game of the year, while Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault and Tyler Eifert all have deep-league appeal (especially if Chark is out!). Eifert ticked up to .72 routes per dropback last week en route to a 3-36-1 receiving line, and Cole actually leads the team with 12 targets so far.
Wentz is coming off arguably his worst two-game stretch since he was a rookie, and we now find out that Jalen Reagor (thumb) likely will miss Week 3. Panic and doubt are in the air, but so is the stench of the Bengals defense. While their first two opponents mostly focused on running the ball, the Bengals now figure to face more of an aerial test from a Philadelphia offense that's been passing at the fourth-highest rate on first downs (64.6 percent), the second-highest rate in neutral game script (68.8 percent) and the second-highest rate overall (70.3 percent). This matchup could lead to elevated play volume on both sides, as the Bengals also rank near the top of the league in pass rate (67.5 percent, No. 3). Don't give up on Wentz just yet.
Jeff Wilson could take goal-line work and even a solid chunk of the carries overall, but it's McKinnon who figures to be heavily involved in the passing game for an offense that's likely starting Nick Mullens at quarterback and running short on other receiving options. The 49ers have sent a league-high 35.6 percent of their targets to running backs, with McKinnon (six), Raheem Mostert (seven) and Tevin Coleman (four) splitting the work so far. Mostert and Coleman are out this week, leaving McKinnon in a good spot for a handful of targets, on top of whatever carries he gets.
Ingram is more RB3 than RB2 this year, averaging 9.5 carries and 1.5 targets as part of a three-man committee. It's exactly the situation everyone feared this summer, though we have been given some cause for limited optimism. In last week's romp over Houston, the 30-year-old played 17 of 32 snaps before halftime, taking seven of Baltimore's eight RB touches in the process. The usage hints at the potential for more playing time and more carries in a closer contest, which should be on tap Week 3 against the Chiefs. It's also a nice spot in terms of efficiency, as the Chiefs allowed 4.9 YPC to RBs last season and now are at 4.5 in 2020. You might even remember Ingram rumbling for 16-103-3 in a Week 3 game in Kansas City last year.
Brown is a recurring guest in this space, and we're even thinking about adding him to the regular cast. Six targets in back-to-back games may not be exciting, but it's pretty darn good for a guy whose QB has thrown only 16 passes after halftime. Despite what we see in the box score, Baltimore has put more weight on the passing game this year, with Lamar Jackson taking 39 dropbacks on 62 pre-halftime snaps (63 percent, up from 49 percent last year). Now the Ravens get a tougher opponent, likely setting up a competitive contest (read: more passes) against a Chiefs team with subpar cornerbacks.
This Lamb looks more like a shepherd (Ed. note: no, not that Shepard), leading a flock of defensive backs behind him wherever he goes. Next up, he'll pull the wool over the eyes of a Seattle defense that lost nickelback Marquise Blair to an ACL tear in Sunday's win over the Patriots. Blair was struggling anyway, but Ugo Amadi isn't likely to be a major upgrade, as he's a 2019 fourth-round pick who has played 123 defensive snaps in the NFL. The Seahawks already have given up more than 13 PPR points to six different wide receivers, including slot specialist Russell Gage and journeyman Damiere Byrd. The likely shootout sets up nicely for Lamb, who is sitting on 83 percent snap share, 19 percent target share and 0.85 routes per QB dropback, i.e., he's been a full-time player right out of the (sheep) gate.
Thomas is third among tight ends in target share (26.6 percent) and seventh in routes run (65), taking an early lead over Steven Sims in the imaginary competition to play Robin to Terry McLaurin's Batman. It hasn't resulted in big-time production, but the volume alone puts Thomas near the TE1/2 borderline, solidly in streamer range. After disappointing in a solid matchup last week, he'll have another nice opportunity to succeed, facing a Browns defense that appears incapable of covering the middle of the field.
Giving up 5-52-2 to Mark Andrews was excusable, but the Browns also allowed Marquise Brown and Willie Snead to combine for 123 yards from the slot in that matchup, and they then gave up a combined 11-87-1 to C.J. Uzomah and Drew Sample on TNF (with Tyler Boyd adding 7-72-1 from the slot). The Browns already have two safeties, a slot corner and a linebacker who have allowed 50-plus yards and a TD into their coverage this season, with LB B.J. Goodson giving up the third-most yards (129) among all linebackers, per PFF. Thomas should have an advantage whenever he's one-on-one against Goodson or one of the safeties (Andrew Sendejo, Karl Joseph).
Myers has been a PAT machine through two weeks, and while the Seahawks do figure to remain efficient in the red zone, it's only a matter of time before their high-powered offense sets up some field-goal attempts. Seattle is tied with Arizona for the top implied total (30.25) this week, and Pete Carroll typically has been one of the least aggressive coaches on fourth downs (more punts/FGs, less likely to go for it).
Watson was drafted to be an every-week starter, with his rushing stats theoretically providing a decent floor even in difficult matchups. The problem ahead in Week 3 isn't just a slumping offense facing a good defense — it goes beyond that. Specifically, the Texans are 31st in ESPN's pass-block win rate and 25th in PFF's pass-blocking grades, while the Steelers are No. 2 in pass-rush win rate and No. 1 in pass-rush grade. Watson probably shouldn't be benched in favor of a waiver pickup, but you might consider making the switch if you already have a strong backup on your roster.
They say it's better to be lucky than good. So far, Hunt has been both. There's no denying his talent, but a closer look at his role suggests the production isn't sustainable. Nick Chubb had a 20-2 advantage in carries through the first three quarters of last Thursday's win over the Bengals, before Hunt went wild late in the game. More surprisingly, Chubb has a 28-21 edge in routes run, with Hunt averaging 4.0 targets per game instead of the 5.5 he saw last year.
Perhaps their roles change at some point, but what we've seen to this points hints at crash-and-burn downside for Hunt in any given game. Maybe it's this week, or maybe it's a different week — the larger point is that he's overvalued at the moment. Plus, Washington isn't the same patsy matchup as in previous years, with an impressive defensive line making up for shortcomings elsewhere on the defense. WFT has limited running backs to 3.7 YPC and quarterbacks to 7.0 YPA, all while notching a league-high 11 sacks.
Hines didn't just fail to put up stats last week; he essentially disappeared from the game plan, matching a career low of 12 percent snap share. Frank Reich pounded the rock with Jonathan Taylor, whose massive advantage in touches and playing time included 32 of the 40 snaps from 11 personnel (three-wide). If Hines can't even get most of the snaps when the Colts spread out the field, he's apt to go missing in any matchup that allows for a run-first approach. Week 3 could be a repeat of Week 2, with the injury-riddled Jets heading to Indy as a double-digit underdog.
It's a little early in the year to look at defense vs. position stats, but we can least say it's impressive for the Chargers to have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points while kicking off their season against the high-flying Chiefs and the pass-heavy Bengals. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, considering the Chargers allowed the third-fewest points to WRs last year and then signed slot corner Chris Harris in the offseason. With Casey Hayward and Michael Davis playing at a high level on the perimeter, there isn't really a weak spot to attack. Anderson looks like a screaming bargain relative to his summer ADP, but that doesn't mean he needs to be started in fantasy lineups when he's making a cross-country trip to face a top-five cornerback unit.
Green's 22 targets are tied for fifth most, with a combination of drops, overthrows and penalties preventing him from piling up yards and touchdowns. Better days are ahead if the usage continues, though it's important to make note of the if in this case — the Bengals eventually could shift their offensive focus toward other players. Even if that doesn't happen long term, it could happen this coming Sunday in a potential shadow matchup with Eagles cornerback Darius Slay.
Philly's big offseason addition has been targeted only nine times on 68 cover snaps, giving up five catches for 48 yards, per PFF. The Eagles' first two opponents, Washington and Los Angeles, had far more success throwing at Avonte Maddox (9-131-1 on 14 targets) and slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman (9-102-1 on nine targets). That's not to say Green isn't startable, but he isn't a slam-dunk breakout the way you might think if you were strictly looking at his target totals, air yards (league-high 330) and NFL track record.
Herndon is the last man standing among Gang Green's projected starters at the skill positions, so one might assume he'd see a ton of targets. It kind of worked out that way in Week 1 when he caught six of seven passes for 37 yards, but he then managed just one catch on four targets in Week 2. Part of the problem is simply that he isn't running many routes, with his 40 tying Jonnu Smith for 24th among tight ends. The Jets have used Herndon as a blocker on 31 percent of his pass snaps, and he's even lost a bit of work to Ryan Griffin (21 routes).
The other problem is playing in an incompetent offense, which means Herndon won't necessarily put up catches, yards and touchdowns even if the targets start to flow. The Jets have the worst implied total (16.5) of Week 2, facing a Colts defense that's allowed only 11 yards to tight ends this year (at JAX, vs. MIN).
With the 49ers missing their starting QB and a slew of other key players, Gould isn't worth starting this week and should even be dropped in most leagues. In addition to the 22.75 implied total for Week 3, he'll have a brutal schedule from mid-October through the end of the season. There are better options available on waivers in damn-near every fantasy league.
Each week I'll post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury news late in the week.
Every week I'll put one start/sit decision to a poll, with obligation to start the winner (or else a witch will hex me and I'll die).
This week's is a doozy - FLEX spot in a PPR dynasty league where I'm 0-2 and just lost Saquon Barkley (FML)
Twitter only allows four options in polls, but I also have Michael Pittman, Bryan Edwards and Kerryon Johnson on this team, so feel free to leave a response if you think I'm missing something and should start one of those guys instead.
And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.
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Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
vs. MIA — UPGRADE ⬆️
vs. CIN
at NYG
vs. KC
at SEA
at CLE
vs. DAL
at PIT
vs. WAS
vs. NYJ
at LAC
at PHI
vs. CAR
at JAX
vs. LVR
vs. SF
vs. GB
vs. DET
vs. HOU
at ATL
at NO
vs. LAR
at ARZ
at MIN
