Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit

Every year when the fantasy playoffs roll around, I preach more or less the same three things in different ways, and I'm struggling to see any reason to stray from the retread advice. In no particular order, the fantasy playoffs should once again be approached with three words in mind:

Gut.
Volume.
Beer.

Or, if you're like me, this time of year you opt for more scotch than hops. Especially if your team is failing you at the most important time.

Whatever your drink of choice, though, before we even get to the at-times torturous decisions to try optimizing our lineups, we should make sure to remember getting here at all warrants celebration. Even for the most competitive of us, to get to the playoffs – whether it's the semifinals or first round for those weirdos who play in Week 17 – we need to recognize the accomplishment that comes with the journey to get here. Hopefully we can walk with the pride and the cash a title brings, especially if it's big money, but regardless, we should sit back and enjoy the fruits of our labor in another rollercoaster NFL season.

However, the booze comes into play when the ball is kicked off. Before that happens, check usage trends to try capitalizing on opportunity. Production is more often than not tied to volume. If the most explosive, most talented guys on your roster are getting the ball, great. If they're not, look for someone who is, and in the end, go with whatever your gut tells you. If your gut is wrong, you can punish it with comfort food and drinks until you forget its bad decision.

Either way, enjoy these last few days of the journey.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Baker Mayfield, CLE at DEN

Did anyone happen to notice the ridiculously easy 261 yards and two touchdowns Nick Mullens threw for versus Denver in just the first half last week? Yeah, minus Chris Harris, apparently the Broncos just aren't going to cover anyone beyond eight yards downfield. Mayfield – who was razor-sharp last week after some miscues in a loss to the Texans the prior Sunday – is going to carve this defense to pieces Saturday.

Derek Carr, OAK at CIN

Well look at that. The Raiders won't lay down. After all they lost due to turmoil, the traded stars, the injuries and coaching gaffes, Carr and Co. are not only still fighting, but they're also producing. Carr has led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives in consecutive weeks to push the Chiefs to the final two minutes and upset the Steelers in dramatic fashion. Leaning on tight end Jared Cook and with Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts taking turns making important catches, Carr has managed at least 285 yards and multiple scores in consecutive games for the first time since he was a surprising MVP candidate in November 2016. Carr is now set up beautifully to make it three straight against a Bengals defense that's allowed the most points per game in the league (30.5).

Jeff Driskel, CIN vs. OAK

The Raiders have recorded 20 more passing touchdowns allowed (31) than sacks (11). They rank last in both categories. Driskel may not have done much with either of his starts (averaging 203 passing yards and one score per game), but he also has had to face the Broncos (tied for fifth in sacks) and the Chargers (sixth in passing yards allowed). The latter was on the road. Drawing this Swiss cheese, no-name Raiders defense, Driskel should finally get to showcase his athletic talent. For two-quarterback and superflex formats, that's worth a gamble.

Nick Mullens, SF vs. SEA

The Seahawks get a short week coming off an emotional win. They still figure to be dialed in with a playoff berth yet to be clinched, but they may also be tired. And like any defense that faces the 49ers, their secondary will get spread out to cover the entire field and leave receivers to break into clear throwing windows. Kyle Shanahan's offense schemes guys open as well as any: It's largely the reason Mullens has averaged 295.8 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns in his five starts, including the whopping 414 yards he threw just two weeks ago in Seattle, largely in similar garbage time to what he'll experience Sunday.

RB

Derrick Henry, TEN at NYG

The numerous memes that popped up of Henry's "Beast Mode" impression, 99-yard scoring rumble should be enough to tell the tale. However, for anyone scarred by the fact that Henry's previous six games did not account for as many yards on the ground as he piled up on Jacksonville, take solace in the reminder that after trading Damon "Snacks" Harrison prior Week 8, the depreciated "Big Blue" defense promptly allowed four straight rushers to pile up at least 85 yards and a score on the ground. The one to post fewer than 100, Josh Adams, had a 52-yard touchdown called back on a questionable holding call.

Damien Williams, KC vs. LAC

This isn't a complicated formula. The starting running back in the offense leading the league in yards (437.5 per game) and points (36.2 per) should be in any fantasy lineup. Although Williams is certainly no Kareem Hunt and likely not as gifted as the shifty and powerful Spencer Ware, who has a season under his belt with 1,300-plus scrimmage yards, the five-year vet can hold his own. On 243 career touches the 224-pounder with soft hands has accumulated 1,304 yards and 11 scores, two of which came last week while playing a clear second fiddle to Ware (hamstring), who's likely missing Thursday night's divisional showdown with the Chargers. Williams should thrive in a featured role. The Bolts have struggled with bigger backs over the season's second half (Joe Mixon, James Conner and Derrick Henry combined for four TDs since Week 7) and particularly while covering tailbacks in the passing game, where they've given up the third-most receiving yards to the position. Wouldn't you know it, that's Williams' bread and butter. Nearly 60 percent of his career yards and two thirds of his touchdowns have come as a pass catcher.

Kenneth Dixon, BAL vs. TB

Before "limiting" the Saints' star backfield duo to just 103 yards and a score on 25 combined carries, the Buccaneers had been utterly dominated by the three versatile, speedy backs they faced in previous weeks: Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida and Christian McCaffrey each ran for over 100 yards en route to amassing a combined 453 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. Dixon, who turned nine touches into 80 yards and a score last week, is undeniably the most dynamic of the Baltimore tailbacks. Having earned a larger split in the timeshare with the steady but unspectacular Gus Edwards, expect the former fourth-round draft pick to get rewarded enough to return the favor to his fantasy investors.

Jordan Howard, CHI vs. GB

Howard was built for cold-weather football, and it's showed the past two weeks as the Bears fed their third-year bruiser at least 16 carries in consecutive games for the first time all year. Wouldn't you know it, Howard rewarded them by churning out at least 76 yards in each. Coming off his first 100-yard effort of the season, the two-time 1,000-yard back is undoubtedly looking forward to wearing down a Packers defense that's thin in its front seven with Pro Bowler Mike Daniels (foot) on injured reserve. After all, Green Bay has yielded a friendly 4.6 YPC to opposing rushers.

Doug Martin, OAK at CIN

Seven straight games with double-digit rush attempts, three straight finding the end zone and at least 58 yards or a score in all seven equal a good floor for this Oakland native. With the Bengals' last-ranked run defense on tap, Martin playing for his hometown team is about to get even better. He may have dipped below 4.0 YPC the past couple weeks for the first time since becoming the team's starter in Week 8, but he's also seen his workload increase as the Raiders have fought hard against top competition. When Oakland stands toe-to-toe with a Cincinnati team minus A.J. Green (toe) and Andy Dalton (thumb), don't discount the possibility of a well-fed Martin finally hitting the century mark as a rusher.

WR

Allen Robinson, CHI vs. GB

Follow the targets. The path of least resistance to fantasy production can be a simple formula sometimes. In this case, Robinson, the Bears' only pass catcher with a Pro Bowl on his resume has seen at least seven targets in four of the past five games -- or in each game that another former Pro Bowler, Darius Slay, was not shadowing him. Now, he also faced Aqib Talib and Xavier Rhodes in that stretch, who are not without their own accolades, so his production has been modest. Still, with rookie Jaire Alexander likely drawing Robinson duty, the vet should shine in a divisional clash (and payback game for Chicago) with a Green Bay opponent that's undeniably thin in the secondary. Case in point: Only the even thinner 49ers have allowed as many touchdowns to wide receivers as the 20 the Pack has surrendered, including three just last week.

Curtis Samuel, CAR vs. NO

We'd be hard-pressed to deny the large step Samuel has taken into a flex option. A fireworks display with the ball in his hands, the dynamic athlete has also developed into a proficient – if not dangerous – route runner in his second season, and the Panthers are finally taking advantage of this. He's tallied 19 targets and registered at least 80 receiving yards in each of the past two weeks. In the previous four games, Samuel totaled four touchdowns on 16 touches. The game breaker with legit home-run 4.3 speed will be asked to help plenty against the Saints, and if first-round pick D.J. Moore draws Marshon Lattimore in coverage, Samuel is a safe bet to keep seeing a healthy target share against a defense that's allowed the most yards to wide receivers.

Tim Patrick & Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CLE

The formula is set for how to beat the Broncos minus Emmanuel Sanders on offense and Chris Harris on defense: Pick apart a secondary lacking in leadership and ability, and on the other side of the ball, stack the box to limit talented rookie rusher Phillip Lindsay. Make Case Keenum beat you. That formula led to a 20-point San Francisco lead last week and some helpful garbage points for the Denver receiving corps in the comeback effort. The only reason Sutton didn't get in on the action is that he was locked up by Richard Sherman most of the game. Patrick benefited by leading the team in targets (10), catches (seven, tied with DaeSean Hamilton) and yards (85). His size – 6-4, 212 – like that of Sutton's, is tantalizing. While Hamilton will remain involved from the slot, when Baker Mayfield gets the Browns in front, expect another week of stat padding against a Cleveland D that's given up the fifth-most yards to wideouts.

Jordy Nelson, OAK at CIN

PPR alert! Let's face it: The glory days for Nelson are long gone. Besides lacking his trademark deep speed and ability to create after the catch, the 33-year-old is donning the wrong colors and snagging balls from the wrong quarterback these days. Still, after going M.I.A. from Weeks 6 through 12, a depleted receiver corps and late-season second wind have helped the possession receiver re-emerge as a valuable PPR commodity. His 9.1 yards-per-catch average the last two weeks leaves a lot to be desired, but snagging 16 of 18 targets certainly raises eyebrows and pads the bottom line. A meeting with a Bengals defense that's surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards to wideouts should only serve to boost his suddenly stable floor, especially given the wily vet's savviness in the red zone.

TE

Ian Thomas, CAR vs. NO

Double. Down. The Saints have actually been terrific defending tight ends this year – tied for second fewest yards allowed to the position – but this should be ignored. During the fantasy playoffs, volume is king. Players are beat up and tired on both sides of the ball, but Thomas has no reason to be. The heir apparent to Greg Olsen has 33 targets on the season, but 16 have come in the past two weeks, including a team-leading 11 targets last week, which he converted to nine grabs and 77 yards. With Cam Newton's ailing throwing shoulder, he's not likely to be slinging deep balls anytime soon. When the Panthers, owners of a five-game losing skid, have to claw their way back against the Saints and their top-ranked rush defense, don't be surprised to see a lot more quick-strike, chain-moving throws to Thomas again.

Blake Jarwin, DAL at IND

The Colts held the best tight ends they've faced – Zach Ertz, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski – to 73, 74 and 75 yards respectively, but Dallas Goedert also posted 73 yards, and just last week, Ryan Griffin burned them for 80 of the 151 yards Texans tight ends registered against them. Unsurprisingly, Indy has given up the second-most catches (81) and third-most yards (73.0 per game) to the position. Meanwhile, the Colts also have quietly been good limiting wide receivers. Only the Bills have allowed fewer than the 128.8 yards per game the Colts have given up to wideouts. So while Amari Cooper likely will still get his, with a dearth of receiver talent otherwise, Jarwin should build on or surpass last week's surprise seven-target, seven-catch, 56-yard line – just make sure to check Geoff Swaim (wrist) will miss this contest, as expected. In PPR formats, especially, Jarwin's sneaky value could swing a playoff matchup.

DOWNGRADE

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

No amount of anything will save the Green Bay offense or Rodgers against this rabid Bears defense on a wintry-cold Soldier Field. An Atlanta defense ranked 27th in sacks notched four of those against Rodgers and a Packers unit down three of its Day 1 starting offensive lineman, including both guards. Facing off with Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, Rodgers will be lucky to survive this game with his limbs intact, much like he was when he suffered a sprained knee versus this defense in Week 1.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. NO

After a slow start to the season, the Saints defense has settled into a groove as one of the most disruptive in football. They're the top-ranked run-stopping unit, allowing a measly 77.6 yards per game on the ground; they're third in sacks after piling up 17 in the past three weeks; and they've given up more than 23 points just once since Week 3. Gritting it out through a sore shoulder that's factored into a five-game losing skid for the Panthers, Newton is entering dangerous territory just one week removed from snapping an 11-game streak of multiple touchdown passes by laying a goose egg in Cleveland. With the coaching staff rightfully reluctant to have him serve as the goal line back given the shoulder injury, his floor has been lowered by a lack of rushing scores – none the past six weeks and the fewest for a season in his career if he doesn't visit the end zone again.

Jameis Winston, TB at BAL

Winston is riding a four-game streak with multiple passing touchdowns, and he has run for at least 47 yards in consecutive weeks, but given that he just completed below 50 percent of his attempts against the same Saints defense that allowed Dak Prescott to complete 24 out of 28 throws the previous week, things are looking bleak for his trip to Baltimore. While completion percentage certainly does not tell the tale of a successful fantasy quarterback day – just ask Josh Allen – we should fear an erratic passer like Winston visiting a Ravens defense allowing the lowest completion percentage and YPA in the league. When also considering that Baltimore has held Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes to a combined three touchdowns in their last two outings, you should steer clear of Winston unless utterly desperate at the position.

RB

Phillip Lindsay, DEN vs. CLE

The 49ers set the formula for comfortably beating Denver last week: Don't let Lindsay beat you. With an extremely inexperienced receiver corps and Case Keenum presenting no real threat of winning through the air, San Francisco sold out to keep the league's leader in yards per carry (minimum 70 attempts) under wraps. Lindsay managed a measly 30 yards on 14 carries (2.1 YPC), and although he saved his fantasy day with a short touchdown, he might not be so lucky versus an even better Browns front seven.

Marlon Mack, IND vs. DAL

The Cowboys held Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to just 63 rushing yards on 18 carries (3.5 YPC). Led by the best linebacker duo in football with Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, they've given up just one 100-yard rusher all season, and it took Chris Carson 32 carries to muscle his way to 102 yards way back in Week 3. Now Dallas might even get Sean Lee (hamstring) back this week to add to one of the game's top front sevens. Mack, who's rushed for 33 or fewer yards in three of the last five and failed to produce a run of at least 10 yards in four of those, is going to remain quiet considering how little he's used in the passing game (just 12 catches all year).

Aaron Jones, GB at CHI

You can get away with starting your backup offensive guards against the Falcons. They're thin in the front seven and the proof is in the 4.8 YPC they've allowed to opposing running backs. So naturally, Jones put together quality numbers in a comfortable Packers victory. Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith won't let that be the case this week, whether Green Bay's health on the offensive line improves or not – and especially if it doesn't. The Bears have given up a league-low three rushing touchdowns to opposing tailbacks and are fresh off a complete shutdown of Todd Gurley. They're also less than a month removed from basically erasing Dalvin Cook from the box score. The 125 yards Saquon Barkley rushed for against them a couple weeks ago is the exception, not the rule, as seems abundantly clear. While Jones can be an electric runner with terrific vision, burst and balance, he's no Barkley. When the Packers get behind on the scoreboard against their arch rival juiced to clinch the NFC North at home, and at the expense of Cheeseheads everywhere, Jones will struggle to impact the game.

WR

Kenny Golladay, DET at BUF

Per Pro Football Focus, the 0.52 yards per coverage snap Tre'Davious White has allowed sets the standard for the league among the 125 cornerbacks with at least 120 coverage snaps. With no threat in the passing game other than Golladay, the emerging second-year pass catcher for Detroit is going to fall on his face for the second consecutive week. After posting 203 yards and a score in the first two games minus Marvin Jones (knee/IR), Golladay has generated just 55 the past two weeks on 12 targets. Patrick Peterson and Aqib Talib (in his part-time return to action) gave the young wideout fits. Now it's White's turn in Buffalo's already miserable throwing conditions in December.

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. DAL

It's all about expectations. Hilton's raised them tremendously with a four-game explosion in which he's racked up 33 catches for 556 yards on 44 targets, but that pace or anything even nearing it is unlikely this week. His one modest performance during this crusade against cornerbacks came against the stingy Jaguars secondary in which Hilton needed a season-high 13 targets to manage 77 yards. In his 10 other appearances this year Hilton averaged an exceptional 10.7 YPT. Against Jacksonville, that mark dropped to 5.9 YPT, or the exact yards per target Dallas lockdown corner Byron Jones has relented in a breakthrough season (per Pro Football Focus). For all those who want to clamor that Jones allowed his first touchdown of the season to Alshon Jeffery last week, let's not lose sight of the fact that the score came on a well-executed pick play from the 2-yard line. Jones is a stud, and Hilton is going to experience his sweltering coverage firsthand.

Mike Evans, TB at BAL

See Winston, Jameis: An erratic quarterback will often equal an erratic No. 1 target. Over the past six games, Evans has posted 51 or fewer yards three times with just one touchdown reception in that stretch. The continued development of Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries also has not helped his consistency. That duo has combined for 72 targets in those six games while Evans has 43. In considering these recent trends and the way Baltimore has limited opposing wideouts all season, including a bizarrely awful two-catch, 18-yard output from Julio Jones two weeks ago, using Evans as anything more than a flex option this week is difficult.