Dynasty Watch: Second-Year WRs Pt. 2

Previously planned as a two-part series detailing 20 breakout candidates in the 2019 rookie wide receiver class, the copy ran a bit long so I'm making it three parts instead. The 20 players ranked in ostensibly declining dynasty value, receivers 11-through-20 were addressed in the first article. This post will look at numbers 6-through-10, and tomorrow (Saturday) I'll post 1-through-5. The premise excluded A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin due to the three reaching the breakout distinction already.

Scroll into the rankings to see the writeups for 6-through-10. Click here to see the writeups for 11-through-20 in the previous article.

1. Marquise Brown, BAL
2. Deebo Samuel, SF
3. Mecole Hardman, KC
4. Darius Slayton, NYG
5. Parris Campbell, IND

6. Preston Williams, MIA

Williams is one of the weirder recent cases among NFL prospects, an entirely enigmatic player with a knack for landing in strange situations. But despite his turbulent history and status as an undrafted player, there's pretty much no way to question Williams' natural talent. The only real question is whether he avoids future turbulence, allowing his talent to speak for itself on the field.

Williams was a blue-chip recruit at Tennessee, where he was kicked off the team for what can only be described as a domestic violence incident, although arguably a less severe instance of it. The report on the incident reads as Williams behaving aggressively and obnoxiously, but not Full Psycho like the Joe Mixon case. Not to minimize the seriousness of that or speculate irresponsibly, but the basic point is that there's reason to believe Williams was just a dumb, reckless kid than a fully rotted apple. Not just Mixon and Tyreek Hill, but even someone like Dede Westbrook has a more concerning background than Williams.

There is a slight concern, though, that Williams' character might lack something in the work ethic department. Or at least, I have no idea otherwise how to explain his horrible pro day workout. Williams (6-4, 211) ran like the wind in his Colorado State tape, yet at his pro day he plodded his way to a 4.61 40 with a 31.5-inch vertical and 116-inch broad jump. Unless he was simply out of shape, I just can't figure out what happened there.

Williams' work with the Dolphins implies that his poor pro day was in any case not truly indicative of his athleticism. Even as an undrafted rookie, Williams almost immediately made his presence felt in training camp and displaced other, more favored players like Jakeem Grant, Allen Hurns, and Isaiah Ford. Williams earned a three-down role by Week 2, and before his Week 9 ACL tear he raced to 60 targets on just 412 snaps, including a blistering rate of air yardage (2.04 per snap, 94th percentile). That ACL tear is a short-term concern, but as long as he keeps his head on straight then it's tough to bet against Williams. As much as he could still go the way of Syracuse Mike Williams, for now we have more reason to think of Preston as simply a big, talented, rapidly-targeted receiver in an improving offense.

Takeaway: Mercurial personality but likely above average starter talent

 
7. Diontae Johnson, PIT

I was too low on Johnson as a prospect out of Toledo, and it's totally possible I'm still too low on him now. I of course don't quite see it that way, however.

Johnson is renown for his release and route-running technique, and once he gets the football it's like trying to swat down a gnat. His skill set is not in any real question at this point – he was productive at Toledo, particularly in the efficiency sense, and he showed bankable traits as a rookie in Pittsburgh last year. The question about Johnson is similar to the one with Deebo Samuel – what exactly is his upside, and is it high enough to justify his current acquisition price? Particularly given where the Pittsburgh offense is headed, I'm inclined to see Johnson as more of a maxed-out role player than a developing star.

Johnson's most impressive collegiate season was in 2017, his third year. In an offense that completed 63.1 percent of its passes at 9.3 YPA, Johnson caught 74 of 107 targets for 1,278 yards and 13 touchdowns (69.2 percent catch rate, 11.9 YPT). As much as I'd caution that he gets an age-adjustment penalty at 21 years old at the time, that's big volume at far above the team baseline, indicating substantial skill set. But Johnson only posted such volume because prior WR1 Cody Thompson suffered a season-ending injury in the fifth game, clearing the runway for Johnson to go nuts. When Thompson returned the next season, though, Johnson's share of Toledo's receiving yardage fell from 32.6 to 25.7. His production that year (53.7 percent catch rate, 8.2 YPT, eight touchdowns) was basically matched by teammates Thompson (52.8 percent catch rate, 7.1 YPT, 10 touchdowns) and Jon'Vea Johnson (53.3 percent catch rate, 11 YPT, nine touchdowns), both of whom went undrafted and remain practice squad types. I would have preferred to see Johnson easily outproduce the likes of those two, especially at over 22 years old at the time. 

The most promising aspect of Johnson's rookie year in Pittsburgh is probably his target rate, drawing 92 on just 667 snaps. He caught 59 for 680 yards and five touchdowns, a 64.8 percent catch rate at 7.4 YPT in an offense that completed only 61.8 percent of its targets at 6.3 YPA. With that said, I personally have trouble overlooking how much of his production simply occurred against bad defenses, Against the Bengals (2x), Dolphins, Cardinals, and Jets he totaled 36 targets, catching 28 for 331 yards and four of his five touchdowns. That's a 77.8 percent catch rate at 9.2 YPT in that sample, meaning outside of those five games he caught 55.4 percent of his targets at 6.2 YPT in the other 11 games. Particularly given that he was a 23-year-old rookie, that bothers me a bit.

Johnson is likely an average at best athlete when adjusting for size, his 4.53 40, 33.5-inch vertical, 123-inch broad jump, and 11.54 agility score unimpressive for a 5-foot-11, 183-pound frame. There's likely no tools basis for projecting growth for Johnson, then, meaning last year's product might be his final form. If last year's version of Johnson is his final form, then I think his upside is pretty clearly capped by the presence of Juju Smith-Schuster.

Johnson will likely need to mostly play outside when Smith-Schuster is healthy, but with a 9.1 ADOT compared to JSS's 9.2, this implies Johnson is both less capable of getting open downfield yet positioned further away from the quarterback than JSS, the team's lead slot receiver. JuJu is better than Johnson – I refuse to debate that for even a second – so what I see here is Johnson and Smith-Schuster largely fighting over the same part of the field, yet Smith-Schuster is both the better player and likely to run from the more favorable position in any given look. That's one way to invite regression in Johnson's numbers. Another is the yet undetermined effect of James Washington and second-round rookie selection Chase Claypool on the offense. For all of Johnson's hype, he still produced less receiving yardage (680) than Washington did (735) on 16 fewer snaps, and Claypool is an athletic marvel who could muck up the picture for everyone.

In conclusion, I think Johnson is a good but likely limited player whose abilities are clearly inferior to his primary competition for usage. Not only is Smith-Schuster the better player in this realm and likely functioning from the lower-difficulty position, but Smith-Schuster is a fourth-year receiver who is nearly five months younger than Johnson. To me, Johnson is both useful in fantasy but also a clear sell-high in dynasty. That's before trying to guess what might happen with the quarterback position in Pittsburgh.

Takeaway: Potentially above average starter, at least average

 
8. Andy Isabella, ARI

I can't claim to know the specific issues that held back Isabella as a rookie, but the trajectory of his career at Massachusetts implies that he might make rapid improvement in the seasons ahead. Isabella played only 160 snaps last year, drawing just 13 targets despite an anemic 6.2-yard ADOT. That might mean his route releases were poor – he should have drawn more targets running that close to the line of scrimmage – but there might be time for him to make progress on his shortcomings.

Isabella played only eight games as a freshman at UMass, catching two passes for seven yards. The next year, though, he drew 103 targets, catching 62 for 801 yards and seven touchdowns. That's a 60.2 catch rate at 7.8 yards per target in an offense that completed 58 percent of its passes at 7.1 YPA. Only then-potential first-round tight end prospect Adam Breneman outproduced him that year, and he displaced three senior wideouts on the depth chart otherwise. Isabella didn't turn 19 until mid-November of that season.

Isabella's numbers would only grow from that point, posting both big volume and efficiency well above the team baseline. He did all of this as one of the youngest players in his class – he actually didn't turn 18 until the 10th game of his freshman season. Bad rookie season or not, this portends very well for Isabella's skill set projection. That's particularly true given Isabella's athletic tools – the 4.31 40 on a short but densely-built 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame.

Isabella is one of my favorite buy-low targets in dynasty. A lot of people think he's trash, but he only turned 22 in season and has a long history of top-grade production in addition to his game-breaking speed. The Cardinals offense could be going places with Kyler Murray at quarterback, and Isabella will likely be his main downfield threat within a year.

Takeaway: Likely eventual modest-volume, high-explosiveness starter in league-leading passing offense

 
9. N'Keal Harry, NE

Harry was overmatched in his NFL debut, which wasn't made any easier by the ankle injury that bizarrely plagued him for nearly a month in training camp before he was placed on IR, keeping him out until Week 11. Harry's return was barely noticeable from scrimmage, totaling just 12 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns on 24 targets in 222 snaps. With that, plenty likely figure Harry a bust on those grounds alone.

Given the strength of Harry's athletic and production grades in his prospect profile, it would probably be a drastic conclusion to write him off right now. The list is interesting if you run a query back to 1990 on first-round pick wide receivers who averaged 15 or fewer receiving yards per game as rookies. It's one with plenty of frightening names. Let's list them first: Craig Davis, Laquon Treadwell, Freddie Michell, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, R. Jay Soward, Marcus Nash, Thomas Lewis, A.J. Jenkins, and Reggie Williams. At least a few of them were character problems, but that's 11 of the 20 qualifiers all the same. Harry is a N/A for now, as is John Ross. That leaves us with seven positive examples from the group: Herman Moore, Eric Moulds, Santana Moss, Johnnie Morton, O.J. McDuffie, Curtis Conway, and Mike Williams.

When you take build, athleticism, production, and draft capital into account, not many of the busts bear any resemblance to Harry. Treadwell and Reggie Williams are the only ones that stick at all, and Treadwell was both less productive in college and horrifically under-athletic compared to Harry. Their draft capital and builds were similar, but that's it. Williams, admittedly, is a pretty similar prospect and offers a useful worst-case scenario for Harry. Sometimes mega-prospects are busts for no foreseeable reason, and Williams was a big, athletic player who was outrageously productive in college even at a young age. Still, that's just one valid test case for Harry versus at least three positive comparable test cases with Moulds, Moore, and Mike Williams.

There's reason to believe Harry is more like the good-case outcomes on this list than the bad ones. Harry posted big volume at Arizona State and did so while easily outplaying his team's efficiency baseline. At ages 19 and 20, Harry caught 155 receptions for 2,230 yards and 17 touchdowns on 236 targets. That's big volume, and on a catch rate of 65.7 at 9.5 YPT in an offense that completed 62.9 percent of its passes at 7.8 YPA in the same span. That sort of production earns an elite grade regardless of context, but Harry gets another bonus anyway due to the age adjustment.

That sort of age-adjusted production is in itself a strong indication of at least eventual skill set development, even if it takes some time. A player with an age (and injury status) disadvantage as a rookie is a classic case of a delayed but still-incoming arrival, and Harry's background gives emphatic evidence that he is one such case. That's before factoring in his athleticism, which grades well above average as well. Harry ran a 4.53-second 40, which might look average at a glance, but on Harry's 6-foot-2, 228-pound frame the size adjustment makes that speed safely above average. With a 38.5-inch vertical and 122-inch broad jump otherwise, Harry conclusively demonstrated uncommon explosiveness for someone of his frame.

Rather than his own abilities, the biggest concern for Harry's immediate fantasy value is probably the state of the Patriots offense. Jarrett Stidham probably isn't great, and the veteran wideout duo of Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu is an unpleasant complication in the meantime. Still, good players generally have a way of ending up on the field and providing good production, and we still have nearly every reason to believe Harry is a good player.

Takeaway: Likely eventual above average starter

 
10. Hunter Renfrow, LV

Renfrow (5-10, 184) was a hit in his rookie season, playing as the Raiders' slot receiver beginning in Week 2 and drawing 71 targets on 445 snaps in 13 games. He caught 49 receptions for 605 yards and four touchdowns, which would project to about 91 targets, 63 receptions, 778 yards, and five touchdowns based on the workload he had from Week 2 onward. The catch rate (70 percent) and per-target average (8.5) are strong when paired, making it an effective impression overall.

The real question with Renfrow is whether there is reason to project growth. There are arguments to view it either way. The optimistic belief could rest on the general presumption of improvement from rookie to sophomore seasons, as well as Renfrow's dominant conclusion to the season following a three-game absence with a rib injury. Renfrow drew 18 targets on 85 snaps over those contests, road games against the Chargers and Broncos, so you couldn't blame someone for interpreting it as Renfrow showing in-season improvement.

There may be some reason to worry he's maxed out, though, at least as long as the Raiders offense resembles its current construction. More specifically, it would be nice if the Raiders had a better passing offense, or at least a higher tempo. They've snapped the ball at a slow pace under Jon Gruden, which tends to cost them about five or six snaps from scrimmage per game on average relative to the more uptempo offenses. That could mean a difference of as much as 15 or 16 targets for Renfrow over a full season. But Gruden is unlikely to change, and Carr is likely to regress. Renfrow should keep drawing targets from Carr at his customary rate, but Renfrow's catch percentage and YPT figures from last year were based on Carr's 70.4 completion percentage and 7.9 YPA average -- both clear career highs for Carr. Carr's average depth of target was lower in 2019 (6.6) than in 2018 (7.3), so Carr's jump in YPA wasn't due to any increased daring on his part. Carr's YAC average did jump from 2018 (5.5) to 2019 (6.1), however, so we should probably presume regression there specifically.

Assuming it happens, some of Carr's regression in YAC might attribute to Renfrow specifically. Renfrow averaged 6.3 yards after the catch per catch last year, which ranked in the 88th percentile among receivers. Based on his athletic testing and collegiate production, Renfrow might be hard-pressed to maintain that. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch last year in an offense that averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, but in his redshirt senior year at Clemson he averaged 11.1 yards per catch in an offense that averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. With a 4.59-second 40 on a light frame, we might sooner expect Renfrow to rank in the 50th percentile for YAC than the 88th. If Renfrow had ranked in the 50th percentile for YAC in 2019 the figure would have been like 4.0 yards after the catch per catch. If Renfrow had averaged 4.0 yards after the catch per catch instead of 6.3, then he'd project for 490 yards instead – 6.9 YPT instead of 8.5. To be fair to Renfrow, he was credited with drops that were perhaps uncharacteristic, and if he dropped three passes instead of six then in this hypothetical he'd project for 520 yards, raising the YPT to 7.3.

Then again, maybe the addition of Henry Ruggs will force the safeties to neglect Renfrow, allowing him to maintain last year's high YAC average. Perhaps Carr won't regress either, or might even improve, affording more usage opportunity for Renfrow. Maybe all that will happen and he'll stop dropping passes. But what's indefinitely true is that he's one of the least athletic NFL receivers, even in the slot, and he projects for less than a 20 percent share of the Raiders' target distribution.

Takeaway: Likely average starting slot receiver

  
11. Steven Sims, WAS
12. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
13. Jalen Hurd, SF
14. Hakeem Butler, ARI
15. Kelvin Harmon, WAS
16. Miles Boykin, BAL
17. Scott Miller, TB
18. Bisi Johnson, MIN
19. Jakobi Meyers, NE
20. Riley Ridley, CHI