Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 10 Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 10 edition of Beating the Book!

We're coming off of another positive week, but not by much. In retrospect, we should have leaned even more heavily on the favorites, which finished the week 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS. New Orleans was, of course, the only favorite to go down, while the Bills, Eagles, Titans and Chiefs also failed to cover.

As we turn the page to Week 10, we're met with a handful of lopsided matchups, but no games in danger of closing near double-digits. As of publication, the Chiefs are the biggest favorites of the week, while the Chargers, Eagles, Bears and Ravens are each giving at least 6.0. It's also a big week for road favorites, with half of the slate favoring visiting teams, including the New York Giants, who are technically on the road against Carolina in Germany.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 10 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 9:

Ravens -9.0 vs. Broncos: Denver was a popular side with Baltimore coming off of an ugly loss to Cleveland, but the Ravens issued a stern reminder that facing Lamar Jackson is a bit different than Spencer Rattler or Bryce Young.

Commanders -3.5 at Giants: While this wasn't comfortable by any means, we leaned on the notion that Washington is simply a much better team that, despite starting a rookie quarterback, already seems immune to letdown spots.

Worst calls of Week 9:

Cowboys +2.5 at Falcons: This line felt suspiciously low, so we held our nose and took the points with Dallas, despite very few statistical indications that they would be able to get a win on the road.

Saints -7.0 at Panthers: Not much to say here. You lose to the Panthers, your coach gets fired.

Last week: 8-7 ATS; 11-4 SU; best bet won (Commanders -3.5)

On the season: 70-65-3 ATS; 90-48 SU; 4-3-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.0

Total: 52.5

Banger of a Thursday Night matchup between two division rivals who combined for 79 points when they met in Cincy back in Week 5. Since that game – an OT win for Baltimore – both teams have gone 3-1, and they're each coming off of 41-point performances in Week 9 blowout victories.

Given how closely these teams tend to play, 6.5 seems like a slightly inflated number, but the game is in Baltimore, and I would not expect the Bengals to have Tee Higgins, who continues to destroy my fantasy teams with seemingly minor injuries that turn into month-long absences. Higgins, who had two touchdowns in the first matchup with Baltimore, is yet to practice this week, for what it's worth.

The Bengals proved last week that they don't necessarily need Higgins to pile up points, but doing so against the Minshew/Ridder Raiders is a bit different than the Ravens. Even so, Baltimore's pass defense continues to be an issue, so even without Higgins, I expect Joe Burrow to be able to do enough to keep this game relatively close. With the number hanging under a touchdown, however, we'll take the Ravens to cover at home.

The pick: Ravens 30 – Bengals 23

🇩🇪 Sunday Germany Game 🇩🇪

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Giants -5.5

Total: 41.5

Credit to the Panthers for earning back some respectability last week in a win over the lowly Saints. But more so credit to New Orleans for finding a way to blow a game in which they did not turn it over, ran for over 150 yards and out-gained the Panthers by more than 150 yards.

Nevertheless, the Panthers have now joined the rank of two-win teams, which encompasses nearly 30% of the NFL. I'm not quite ready to buy in on Carolina as anything but a bottom-three outfit, however, and while the Giants are also a two-win team, their week-to-week floor tends to be much higher.

Taking the show on the road to Germany is an interesting wrinkle, but I'll side with the Giants to establish a run game and force a couple of turnovers to grind out a predictable why did I wake up to watch this game? victory overseas. The U41.5 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Giants 20 – Panthers 13

Sunday Early Slate

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -6.0

Total: 39.5

Coming off of a crushing loss to Washington, the Bears had a chance to bounce back in Arizona last week and… politely declined to do so. After putting together three field-goal drives in the second quarter, Chicago was poised to take a 14-9 deficit into the half before allowing a 53-yard touchdown to the Cardinals' third-string running back with 12 seconds remaining.

Every week, the Bears continue to prove that they're one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL. DJ Moore may have already seen enough.

Perhaps most concerning for Chicago is the week-to-week fluctuation of Caleb Williams' play. Williams should be afforded the same leash as any rookie, but just when it looked like he'd turned a corner in wins over Carolina and Jacksonville, the No. 1 pick has now struggled in two straight losses. His deep ball accuracy, in particular, continues to be a major issue.

Despite Williams' unpredictability, the Bears are still the better side – particularly on the defensive end. But their offensive floor is as low as just about any team in the NFL. After last week's horrific, 3.4 YPP performance, the Bears have now accounted for three of the 10 worst offensive games of the season by Yards Per Play.

With that said, we know the Pats are capable of their own offensive woes, and while Drake Maye has infused life into a dormant passing game, he'll have his work cut out for him against the Bears' top-five defense.

At 6.0, this is more of a stay-away for me, but as long as the Bears can avoid the backbreaking mistakes, this is a game they should be able to win by a touchdown at home.

The pick: Bears 25 – Patriots 17

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Bills -4.0

Total: 46.5

Buffalo failed to cover against a desperate Miami team last week, but a drop-turned-interception by Keon Coleman and a few dubious holding calls changed the course of the game. Either way, the Bills are far and away the class of the AFC East and have now ripped off four wins in a row as they approach the most-difficult portion of their schedule.

The Colts, meanwhile, did not get the immediate Flacco Bump last week against Minnesota, despite the Vikings gifting them three turnovers, including one that went for a touchdown. The Colts were unable to muster an offensive touchdown and were thoroughly beaten in just about every key stat category. Minnesota out-gained Indy 415 to 227, had 16 more first downs, ripped off 5.8 YPP (4.6 for IND) and won the time-of-possession battle by nearly 14 minutes. 

In order to hang around with the Bills, the Colts will again need to find some turnover luck, in addition to getting the running game moving. Indy rushed for just 68 yards as a team in Week 9 and now faces off against the NFL's No. 9 rush defense by EPA. To their credit, the Colts have done a good job of slowing down the run in recent weeks (No. 7 in EPA on the season), so this could turn into a Josh Allen vs. Joe Flacco aerial showdown.

This may be a trip-up spot for Buffalo with the Chiefs looming in Week 11, but we'll ride with the Bills to get Amari Cooper back and outscore the Colts on the road.

The pick: Bills 30 – Colts 24

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Vikings -4.0

Total: 47.5

The Jags have done the unthinkable and covered three straight games, so we have to take them at least somewhat seriously here. With that said, injuries continue to hamper this team, and Jacksonville continues to commit killer mistakes on a weekly basis. Last week, it was a fumbled punt to open the game and a Travis Etienne drop-turned-pick that handed the Eagles two free touchdowns.

Later on, after Nick Sirianni continued to prop the door open for a Jags comeback, Trevor Lawrence decided to throw a jump ball to his third-string running back on first down from the Eagles' 13-yard-line. Below, you can see how that decision turned out.

Talent-wise, the Vikings are obviously the better team, but the Jags pack more of a punch than your typical two-win team. I won't be surprised if Jacksonville is able to make this a game at home, but I like the Vikings to clean up last week's sloppiness and win this game by a touchdown over one of the NFL's worst secondaries.

Keep an eye on Lawrence's status this week, by the way. I'd be surprised if he sits, but the Jags did sign C.J. Beathard to their 53-man roster, which indicates that there's at least a chance Lawrence doesn't play.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Jaguars 21

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -8.0

Total: 41.5

On Monday night, the Chiefs grinded out yet another extremely Chiefs victory, topping the Bucs in overtime with a 10-play, 70-yard touchdown drive. That win pushed KC to 8-0 on the season and extended their winning streak to 14 straight, dating back to last season.

While the Chiefs may not be the most impressive looking team, they continue to come through in key moments – KC was 13-of-19 on third and fourth downs against Tampa – and choke out opponents on a week-to-week basis. However, the Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS on the season and have failed to cover two straight spreads north of a touchdown.

We have yet another one of those situations this week as the Chiefs welcome the Broncos to Arrowhead fresh off of a beatdown at the hands of the Ravens. After Bo Nix threw a pick on the second play from scrimmage, Denver was able to get a stop on the ensuing Baltimore possession. After that? Well, the Ravens ripped off seven consecutive scoring drives en route to a 41-10 blowout.

Do I see Denver having a chance to win this game outright? Not really, no. But the Chiefs don't tend to run away from teams and have a habit of leaving the backdoor open for a late cover, as we saw in Week 8 against Vegas.

This is in stay-away territory for me, but we'll swallow the points with Denver and bank on its defense holding Kansas City down and keeping this to a touchdown game.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Broncos 17

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Falcons -3.0

Total: 46.5

For the second straight week, I'm staring at a Falcons line that looks a bit too low. Last week, we took the bait on Dallas and got burned. This time around, we may need to take a different approach.

First and foremost, we have to acknowledge that the Saints – with their starting quarterback – lost to the Panthers. The Carolina Panthers. New Orleans had multiple chances to put the game away in the fourth quarter and completely turtled up, offensively – most notably, the Saints declined to go for a 4th and inches at midfield with under six minutes to play. 

The comedy of errors – and a seven-game losing streak – resulted in the unsurprising dismissal of Dennis Allen this week. New Orleans will now turn to Darren Rizzi, the former special teams coordinator and assistant head coach.

We'll see if the Saints get a post-firing bump, but more importantly we'll need to see who's on the field for New Orleans. Offensive line injuries continue to pile up, and another big hit on Chris Olave last week led to the star receiver landing in the hospital.

I'm not expecting Olave to be available, which means Derek Carr will be throwing to the likes of Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.. Meanwhile, the Saints just traded one of their best defensive players, Marshon Lattimore, to the Commanders on Tuesday – essentially a wave of the white flag on a season that looked incredibly promising two weeks in.

Even in plus matchups like this one, the Falcons have a way of making things much more difficult than they need to be. But even so, Atlanta's offense has been rounding into form of late and should be able to run away from a limited Saints offense.

The pick: Falcons 30 – Saints 20

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: 49ers -5.5

Total: 50.0

With the expected return of Christian McCaffrey, this feels like a line of demarcation for the Niners' season. While they're not getting Brandon Aiyuk back, the bye week should be a major boost to the injury report, overall, and this should be a good spot for McCaffrey to work his way back into the mix, even if it's on a limited basis.

Despite the injuries and some late-game blowups, the Niners still rank second in the NFL in yards per play (6.5) and have maintained an elite running game. While they do make a long trip down to Tampa, the Niners have a significant rest advantage over a Bucs team that played a road Monday night game. 

Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs have proven that they're still a more-than-capable offense, so I don't expect a no-show here. But the Niners should be fresh and ready to take off coming out of the bye, and with this number hanging under a touchdown, it feels like San Francisco has to be the play. 

The pick: 49ers 34 – Buccaneers 27

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -3.0

Total: 45.5

Really interesting, cross-conference matchup between a pair of two-loss teams. Coming out of the bye, Pittsburgh made a pair of additions early in the week, picking up Mike Williams from the Jets and Preston Smith from the Packers. The Commanders, meanwhile, made an even bigger splash, acquiring Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans to add a much-needed punch to a pass defense that ranks 24th in EPA. 

For a young team with a rookie quarterback, the Commanders have been remarkably consistent on a week-to-week basis and have been able to avoid any true letdown games. Gradual improvement on the defensive side has certainly helped, but the offense continues to carry this team.

Entering Week 10, the Commanders rank second in offensive EPA, first in rushing EPA, second in yards per play, first in yards and plays per drive and first (by a mile) in score percentage. Washington has scored on a whopping 60.7% of its drives this season – 23.6 percentage points above league average. The Commanders have also been among the best third-down teams in the NFL, and they're a perfect 11-of-11 converting fourth downs. They have struggled in the red zone, however, converting just 21 of their league-high 41 trips into touchdowns.

In what should be a very close game against a well-rested Steelers team, which side can turn field goals into touchdowns will likely determine the outcome. I've been riding with the Commanders all season, but this could be a spot in which they struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that leads the NFL in opponents' red zone conversion rate. 

The pick: Steelers 24 – Commanders 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -7.5

Total: 37.5

Tennessee escaped with a win in New England last week, and while it wasn't exactly impressive, the Titans did rack up 400 yards of offense and completely control the clock while holding the Pats to 4.5 YPP. Over the last two weeks, the Titans have compiled over 800 yards of total offense, including well over 300 yards on the ground. But they've turned it over five times while struggling on third downs (31.3% conversion rate) as well as special teams.

The Chargers are coming off of an impressive win over the Browns, who were a popular side last week following an upset win over the Ravens. Early in the season, Los Angeles was winning on the ground, but the passing volume has taken a major leap in recent weeks. In Week 9, the Chargers were able to take advantage of a couple coverage breakdowns for long touchdowns to Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston.

The win over Cleveland pushed LA to 5-3 ATS on the year, while the Titans are just 1-7 against the number. At first glance, this does seem like an inflated spread – especially with such a low total – but there's a decent chance that Tennessee goes back to Will Levis this week. If that's the case, we'll count on a few killer mistakes to push the Chargers to a comfortable victory. If it's Rudolph under center, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee is able to make this a one-score game.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Titans 14

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -1.0

Total: 46.0

While I'm stopping short of making this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, just know that it was given heavy consideration. At long last, we finally were on the right side of a Jets game last week, but I certainly don't feel good about it. The Jets played perhaps the worst first half of the season and were still able to steady the ship against a beat-up Texans team. 

I still view the Jets as a dead team walking, but getting a win at Arizona would at least catapult them back into realistic contention for the final Wild Card spot. With that said, the Jets' offense remains uninspiring, and Kyler Murray should present some issues for a defense that was able to tee off on a hobbled CJ Stroud in Week 9.

On the Cardinals side, they've strung together three consecutive wins and currently sit atop the NFC West. After skating by against the Chargers and Dolphins by a combined three points, Arizona put together an emphatic performance in last week's win over Chicago, holding the Bears under 250 yards of offense and completely stifling an improved running game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals piled up 213 yards on the ground against one of the league's better defenses.

I want to be careful not to overvalue a Cards team that still rates poorly in most defensive metrics, but this feels like a good spot to fade the Jets, who remain one of the most mistake-prone teams in the NFL.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Jets 22

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Eagles -7.0

Total: 42.0

For the third time in a month, the Eagles are at least a touchdown favorite. While they failed to cover the previous two (Cleveland, Jacksonville), they're catching a dead Cowboys team with Cooper Rush stepping in for an injured Dak Prescott. It's possible Dallas could also be without CeeDee Lamb, who was banged up at the end of last week's loss to Atlanta.

We do need to keep in mind that Rush is a solid backup and led the Cowboys to a late score to set up a legitimate onside kick chance last week. But if Lamb isn't out there, the Eagles should have no problem slowing down a limited offense that (still) cannot run the ball on anyone. In addition to struggling on the ground, Dallas remains one of the NFL's worst run defenses, ranking dead-last in EPA while giving up nearly 150 yards per game and 13 touchdowns. 

On paper, this should be an excellent matchup for Philly, which has climbed to fourth in rushing EPA thanks to a pair of 230-plus-yard games in the last three weeks. 

I'd like to say the Cowboys can pick themselves up off the mat and make this a game, but Prescott going down feels like the final nail in the coffin on what's looking like a lost season. Though I want to make it clear that I do not trust or endorse Nick Sirriani's decision-making, this should be a smash spot for the Philly offense.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Cowboys 17

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 49.5

Fresh off of a win at Lambeau Field, the Lions head down to Houston for what should be a much friendlier environment. Not only did it rain in Green Bay, but it straight-up poured for all four quarters. And yet, the Lions were the team that looked less-impacted by the elements.

While Detroit was dramatically out-gained for the second week in a row, the Lions built an early lead and were able to use the running game to bleed out a mistake-prone Packers offense. Kansas City may deserve the default Best Team in the NFL title, but Detroit has been the most impressive team this season, in my eyes. 

On the Houston side, the Texans are licking their wounds after an ugly, shorthanded loss to the Jets. The extra rest should help, but whether Houston can hang in with Detroit may come down to the status of Nico Collins, who is eligible to return from IR this week. If Collins is back at full strength, we should see a vastly improved passing game to pair with Joe Mixon, who's been able to mostly bail out a wishy-washy offense thus far.

Even so, the Texans are likely going to need to go score-for-score with Detroit, which gets Jameson Williams back from suspension this week and added pass-rushing help in the form of Z'Darius Smith. 

I expect Houston to come out prepared at home, but the Lions are simply too well-rounded to get tripped up here.

The pick: Lions 31 – Texans 26

Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -1.5

Total: 51.0

For the second straight week, we're saving the official Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week for Monday Night Football. After a statement win over Minnesota in Week 8, the Rams were extremely lucky to escape Seattle with an overtime victory last week. Had it not been for Seattle's usual array of bizarre mistakes, the Rams are probably sitting in last place in the NFC West right now.

Anyway, the Rams got the win, but Seattle did expose some lingering leaks in the Rams' secondary, which is a major concern against a healthy Dolphins offense. Miami has come up just short in each of its last two games with Tua back, but the offense has put up its two highest point totals of the season. The question is whether Miami can survive on defense against a revitalized Rams passing game – assuming Puka Nacua doesn't get ejected this week.

On balance, I think the Rams are the better team, but this is a pure desperation spot for Miami, which would fall to 2-7 and would essentially need to win out with a loss. With that in mind, we'll roll the dice and take the Dolphins to win this game outright and – for now, at least – save their Wild Card hopes.

The pick: Dolphins 27 – Rams 24