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Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit

Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit

Written by 
Jerry Donabedian 
Updated on October 27, 2019 3:28AM EST

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

I rely on my own research and my work on weekly projections for this matchups column, writing the entire thing before I look at any rankings or projections from other fantasy writers. I also like to think I'm capable of recognizing a useful tool when I see it, and we've got a good one here at RotoWire with the new addition of composite rankings based on DFS salaries, weekly projections and Jeff Erickson's value meter.

I still trust my own judgement above all else, but I'm not too proud to rely on other opinions/rankings as a tiebreaker for some of those start/sit decisions that feel impossible. It's good to have something new for the toolbox, especially given my bad habit of hoarding WR3/4 types on fantasy teams. (We all have our weaknesses, right?)

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups,

I rely on my own research and my work on weekly projections for this matchups column, writing the entire thing before I look at any rankings or projections from other fantasy writers. I also like to think I'm capable of recognizing a useful tool when I see it, and we've got a good one here at RotoWire with the new addition of composite rankings based on DFS salaries, weekly projections and Jeff Erickson's value meter.

I still trust my own judgement above all else, but I'm not too proud to rely on other opinions/rankings as a tiebreaker for some of those start/sit decisions that feel impossible. It's good to have something new for the toolbox, especially given my bad habit of hoarding WR3/4 types on fantasy teams. (We all have our weaknesses, right?)

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

Regardless of preseason intentions, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has been forced to abandon any plans for a run-heavy offense, with the Lions averaging 3.8 yards per carry (23rd) and allowing 26.7 points per game (26th). Stafford thus finds himself on pace for 581 pass attempts, 4,669 yards and 35 touchdowns, thriving in a downfield passing attack where his 10.5 aDOT is third deepest in the league. The Lions may become even more reliant on their quarterback with Kerryon Johnson (knee) on injured reserve, and Stafford shouldn't have much trouble picking up chunks of yardage against a Giants defense that's given up seven completions of 40-plus yards (tied for third most) and 30 completions of 20-plus yards (second most). Outside linebacker Markus Golden has led the charge for a better-than-expected New York pass rush, but the Giants remain vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt with three cornerbacks in the bottom 20 for yards allowed into their coverage (per PFF).

A flimsy band-aid for the Titans' woes, Tannehill figures to fall off as soon as conditions become sub-optimal. First though, he'll get another cupcake matchup, this time against a Tampa Bay defense that's given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bucs can't even blame a tough early schedule for this aspect of their struggles, as they've faced Jimmy Garoppolo, an injured Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen — not exactly murderer's row. On the other hand, the Bucs shut down Matt Breida, Christian McCaffrey (twice), Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley (for a half) and Alvin Kamara, allowing a league-best 2.9 yards per carry for the year. The Titans prefer to win games with Derrick Henry leading the way, but they'll likely need to rely on Tannehill this week.

RUNNING BACK

The Seattle defense mostly gets a pass for landing on the wrong end of the Lamar Jackson experience, but the overall product nonetheless appears mediocre, yielding 4.3 YPC to running backs (and 7.3 YPC to QBs). Prior to last week when Jackson did all the damage, the Seahawks had gone four straight games allowing 135-plus scrimmage yards and/or multiple touchdowns to their opponent's lead RB. That might be aiming a bit high for Freeman, but 90 total yards and one trip to the end zone seems reasonable, especially with Ito Smith (concussion) not expected to play. While Brian Hill figures to have some type of role, it's at least worth noting that Freeman played 90 percent of snaps back in Week 3 when Smith was forced out of a game with his first concussion of the year. Don't be deterred by Freeman's 56 percent snap share last week; he was ejected in the third quarter after he punched Aaron Donald in the helmet (bold strategy, Cotton).

Williams is most often discussed as a mere thorn in the side of Jones' fantasy owners, but the Packers' other running back has become a useful commodity in his own right, scoring double-digit PPR points in four of his five healthy games. Jones reached 15 points in three of those contests, with the Packers sporting a two-headed backfield to make up for the lack of healthy talent at wide receiver. Expect more of the same Sunday night, with the Chiefs defense ranked 30th in YPC (5.0), 29th in rushing yards per game (148.9) and 29th in run defense DVOA (5.3%). From my Hidden Stat Line column earlier this week:

         > Jones: 13.8 carries, 3.8 targets, 15.4 routes on 34.0 snaps per game.

         > J. Williams: 8.6 carries, 3.6 targets, 16.2 routes on 30.4 snaps per game.

Averaging 18 carries in three games since he returned from an ankle injury, Coleman has quickly reasserted himself as the leader of a crowded backfield. Competition for snaps may prove problematic once the schedule gets difficult, but his Week 8 matchup seems even more favorable than the 5.5-point spread suggests, with San Francisco throwing a dominant pass rush at Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen. The 23-year-old's run of favorable matchups finally comes to an end, traveling all the way to the other end of the spectrum (and the other side of the country). There's also the matter of Carolina's run-funnel defense, which is 24th in YPC (4.7) and fifth in YPA (6.3). The picture is more extreme if opponent adjustments are added, with the Panthers third in pass defense DVOA (-25.5%) and 30th in run defense DVOA (6.0%). Coleman is the only player with a favorable matchup in this battle between defensive heavyweights.

WIDE RECEIVER

One of the top waiver adds this week, Stills should provide an instant payoff filling in for Will Fuller, who averaged eight targets per game before he injured his hamstring last week. With Fuller forced out after three plays, Stills had season highs for snap share (94 percent) and receiving yards (105), logging 35 snaps wide right, 13 wide left and 11 from the slot, per PFF. The 27-year-old has proven himself more than capable from any spot on the field, so the alignment is only important because the Texans just traded for Gareon Conley, who previously was starting at left cornerback for the team he'll now play against Sunday. 

Stills now draws a primary matchup with either Trayvon Mullen or Nevin Lawson — the former is a rookie with 78 defensive snaps to his name, while the latter hasn't logged a single play on defense since he opened the season with a four-game suspension. Stills, on the other hand, has produced 293 yards from 19 targets, bumping his career marks to 16.2 yards per catch and 9.5 per target. (I highly recommend Mario Puig's thorough breakdown on Stills from a couple months ago, before he was traded to Houston). 

Fitzgerald caught 18 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season, while the Saints allowed 301.7 passing yards per game in that same stretch. A lot has changed for both parties over the past month, but things could look a bit more like September if the Cardinals find themselves in catch-up mode and are forced to abandon their unexpectedly prolific rushing attack. The 10.5-point spread suggests it's a distinct possibility, and the Saints now appear vulnerable in the secondary, with suspensions and injuries potentially costing them their Nos. 2-4 cornerbacks. Fitzgerald should mostly avoid top cover man Marshon Lattimore, who has lined up in the slot on just 18 of his 451 plays (4 percent), per PFF.

Sutton has been shockingly consistent for a receiver in a Joe Flacco offense, opening the season with seven consecutive games of at least four catches, 40 yards and seven targets, on pace for an 82-1,289-7 receiving line. That production already puts the 24-year-old into the every-week starter discussion, and he now has a decent shot at double-digit targets for the first time, with Emmanuel Sanders and his 6.3 passes per game traded away to San Francisco. The Indianapolis defense was much better overall the past two games, but that didn't stop Stills, DeAndre Hopkins and Byron Pringle from all going over 100 yards. With top cornerback Pierre Desir unable to match his 2018 breakout and now bothered by a hamstring injury, the Colts have allowed 9.7 YPT to wide receivers.

TIGHT END

McDonald's breakout season hasn't materialized, stymied by a combination of quarterback injuries and his own health woes. We've at least seen a few promising signs though, namely the pair of touchdowns he caught from Mason Rudolph in Week 2. The tight end was forced out early with a shoulder injury the following week, and his first game back saw Rudolph suffer a concussion. On the bright side, McDonald has run a route on 72 percent of QB dropbacks in his four healthy games, so he at least has the proper role to take advantage if Pittsburgh ever cobbles together a half-decent passing game. It could happen Monday, if only for one night, with Miami allowing a league-high 9.4 YPA, including 10.3 on passes to tight ends. McDonald's combination of talent and matchup puts him on the map as a low-end TE1.  

KICKER 

Week 8 features seven teams with implied totals of 28 points or more, providing a few good choices for anyone that streams kickers or has Justin Tucker on bye. Prater is the best of the bunch, offering impressive leg strength and a good track record for accuracy, in addition to the favorable conditions for opportunity this week. He's already made four field goals from 50-plus range this season, and he hasn't missed inside of 40 yards — apart from two PATs — since 2016.

Honorable mentions: Dan Bailey, MIN vs. WAS; Chris Boswell, PIT vs. MIA

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

Consider this a warning rather than a true matchup downgrade, with Cousins skyrocketing from undervalued to overvalued in the span of a few weeks. He didn't forget how to play football in September, and he isn't suddenly an elite quarterback in October. The reality is somewhere in between, which means we need to consider things like expected volume for start/sit decisions. Favored by 16 points and boasting the second-highest run-play rate (52.8 percent) in the league, the Vikings probably won't need 30-plus pass attempts from their quarterback. Between the volume concerns and Adam Thielen's hamstring injury, Cousins is more of a low-end QB1 than a mid-range QB1 for Week 8, behind the likes of Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford and even Josh Allen.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, of all people, became the first quarterback to crack the Buffalo defense, which had opened the season with five consecutive games of dominance. The Bills still rank third in YPA allowed (5.9) and fifth in pass defense DVOA (-6.6%), with PFF's No. 9 team pass-rush grade and No. 5 coverage grade. Coming off back-to-back blowout losses, Wentz is on pace for 3,769 passing yards, sitting 24th in both completion percentage (61.3) and YPA (6.9). He fares much better in terms of QBR (68.5, 7th) and PFF grade (86.6, 4th), metrics that attempt to judge a quarterback independent of the players around him (to whatever limited extent that's possible). 

Sure enough, Wentz has dealt with the ninth-highest drop rate (5.4) and fourth-worst YAC average (4.1) among qualified passers, not to mention the unmeasured impact of a receiving corps with no viable field stretcher. DeSean Jackson (abdomen) should eventually return, but he's expected to miss at least one more week, and stud left tackle Jason Peters (knee) appears no better than questionable. Fill-in starter Andre Dillard got a rude introduction the past two weeks, yielding 14 pressures, 10 hurries and two sacks on 68 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF. Dillard has PFF's second-worst pass-blocking grade (42.8) among 77 offensive tackles that have played 100 or more snaps, while Bills right defensive end Jerry Hughes holds the No. 28 pass-rush grade (72.8) among 115 edge rushers with triple-digit snaps. Wentz is good, but he probably isn't good enough to make up for all the mismatches that favor Buffalo.

Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. CAR; Andy Dalton, CIN at LAR; Baker Mayfield, CLE at NE; Kyle Allen, CAR at SF

RUNNING BACK

Between his issues with drops and his inability to block, Lindsay has been phased out of the Denver offense on passing downs, averaging 27 snaps and 2.3 targets the past four games. That's never a good thing, and it's especially problematic when the Broncos are playing on the road against a potential playoff team. The Colts (-5.5) are my favorite bet of the week, coming off wins over the Chiefs and Texans in their past two games. The early season struggles with run defense seem to be cleaned up, with the Kansas City and Houston running backs combining for just 94 yards on 29 carries in those contests. Only six teams have allowed fewer fantasy points (16.1) to running backs.

It's been a while since we've actually seen it play out this way, but Jacobs remains quite vulnerable to negative game script, handling 57 percent snap share and 1.8 targets per week even while showcasing dominant running ability. With the rookie now bothered by a shoulder injury and the Raiders playing as seven-point underdogs, there are multiple reasons for concern before we even address the Texans' impressive run defense. 

After limiting Marlon Mack to 18-44-0 last week, Houston ranks 12th in YPC allowed (4.1), fifth in run defense DVOA (-20.4%) and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (84.3). Furthermore, Oakland's preference for power formations is the wrong way to attack a defense with 347-pound nose tackle D.J. Reader, who holds PFF's No. 5 run-defense grade among interior linemen. Predictably, the Texans have allowed just 2.9 YPC on 79 carries when opponents use formations with two or fewer wide receivers. Jon Gruden can adjust with more runs from 11 personnel, but Jacobs has seen just 35 of those carries this season, and the Texans won't be scared to stack the box against an offense with subpar wide receivers and a dink-and-dunk passing game.

WIDE RECEIVER

Westbrook bounced back from a slow start to the season with much better results the past four weeks, averaging 5.3 catches for 76 yards on 8.5 targets while avoiding the drops that have been a chronic issue throughout his career. Favorable matchups played a role in the improvement, and it didn't hurt that Jacksonville mostly played from behind (or tied) in three of the four games. The Jags now find themselves favored by 6.5 points in a game that's tied for the lowest over/under (41) of Week 8. 

Nearly as problematic, Westbrook draws a primary matchup with Jets cornerback Brian Poole, who has limited opponents to 20 catches for 132 yards on 32 slot targets this season, per PFF. Poole's mark of 0.66 yards per cover snap is fourth best among 24 CBs with 100 or more slot snaps, and his impressive performance has contributed to subpar receiving lines against the Jets for Cole Beasley (5-40-0 on nine targets), Jarvis Landry (3-32-0 on seven targets), Julian Edelman (14-109-1 on 22 targets in two games) and Nelson Agholor (1-20-0 on three targets). Boundary cornerbacks Trumaine and Daryl Roberts have been much easier to pick on, allowing 1.43 and 1.41 yards per cover snap, respectively (PFF). Look for D.J. Chark to take advantage.

The other slot receiver in the Jets-Jags game draws a similarly tough matchup, with Jacksonville's D.J. Hayden one spot below Poole in terms of yards allowed per slot coverage snap (0.70), suffocating opponents to the tune of 16 catches for 131 yards on 25 targets. This is also a tough draw from a macro perspective, with Jacksonville ranked 14th in YPA allowed (7.3), ninth in pass defense DVOA (-1.1%) and seventh in sack rate (7.7), despite getting smashed by Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. Crowder is a safe bet for a handful of targets and probably more, but it's less certain he'll be able to do anything with them.

TIGHT END

Olsen already appears headed in the wrong direction, with six catches for 57 yards over the past three games following a 6-75-2 explosion in Kyle Allen's first start. The 34-year-old has 16 percent target share in Allen's four starts, compared to 20 percent in two games with Cam Newton, or 23 percent in his last healthy season (2016). A trip to San Francisco is brutal for every member of the Carolina offense, with the Niners defense holding the following ranks in terms of per-game fantasy production: No. 2 vs. QBs, No. 2 vs. RBs, No. 6 vs. WRs, No. 3 vs. TEs, No. 3 vs. Ks. Call me crazy, but I don't like Allen's chances against a defense that leads the league in QB pressure rate (32.8) and sack rate (10.8).

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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