This article is part of our Offseason Priority Preview series.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs is nearing its injury-marred end, but for nearly half of the league the season has already been over for a couple of weeks.
For those 14 teams, attention has fully shifted to the offseason. The NBA Draft (June 25) is less than two months away, with free agency set to open less than a week later (July 1).
While Kevin Durant may be the summer's only true marquee free agent -- yes, LeBron could technically leave -- a number of Tier 2 and Tier 3 free agents, a few of them borderline-All-Star caliber players, are expected to be on the move. Teams on the fringe of a postseason berth in 2015-16 will be looking for one or two missing pieces, while others begin, continue, or attempt to finish off their multi-year rebuilding processes.
In Part I of our Offseason Priority Preview series, we'll address the primary issues facing each of the seven non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference and take a look at what can be done to resolve them.
CHICAGO BULLS (42-40)
The Bulls were probably the most disappointing team in the East this season, or at least the most talented team to miss the playoffs. Injuries and chemistry issues began to take their toll near the end of the year, putting a dispiriting end to the franchise's streak of seven consecutive postseason appearances.
Heading into the summer, the Bulls face a number of major questions. Chief among them: Can this core play together? Or maybe more importantly: Do they want to play together?
At this point, the Bulls are Jimmy Butler's team. That's a fact. He's unquestionably their best player and is one of the better two-way players in all of the league. But according to reports that began to trickle out in early April, there was a divide in the locker room between the "old guard" -- Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah -- and the "new guard," led by Butler.
Rose and Gibson each have one year remaining on their current deals, and while Noah is a free agent, the prevailing belief is that Chicago will do everything it can to retain him, even after an injury-plagued season in which he looked like a shell of his former Defensive Player of the Year self. If all four are indeed back next season to gear up for what could be this core's final playoff run together, they'll have no choice but to learn to coexist.
The clearest path to that happening, of course, is Rose coming to terms with the fact that Butler represents the team's future, even if he's less than a year younger than the former MVP. That's much easier said than done, but considering Rose's megadeal is up next summer, his time as the face of the franchise is probably ticking down regardless.
Despite the injury woes that have come to define Rose's career, he's been a serviceable starting point guard when on the court over the last two seasons. With Rose, Butler, Gibson and Noah healthy, the Bulls aren't a title contender, but they're a playoff team, and they'll have room to add another ancillary piece or two around that core this summer.
The alternative is attempting to move Butler, an idea that seems to have gained marginal traction over the last few weeks. The notion of trading a franchise player who just signed a no-brainer, five-year max deal would have been insane five months ago, but the fact that it's even a somewhat-legitimate discussion speaks to the level of unease the Bulls faced over the season's second half.
Dealing Butler would be a significant shake-up, but Chicago's front office hasn't exactly done its part to quell any rumors. And while Butler is a fan favorite in Chicago, moving him would obviously command a handsome return, likely another young star player, or at the very least an attractive package of young players/picks. That would allow the Bulls to essentially hit the reset button without going into a full rebuilding mode, something the franchise has avoided at all costs.
Outside of resolving its chemistry issues, Chicago will likely have to find a replacement for Pau Gasol in addition to adding much-needed depth behind Rose at point guard.
Both Aaron Brooks and E'Twaun Moore will be free agents come July 1, and while Moore, especially, showed some flashes down the stretch, the Bulls can do much better and could have their eye on names like Jeremy Lin, Mario Chalmers and Ish Smith, among others.
Projected to pick last among lottery teams, Chicago probably won't be able to land a big-time, immediate-impact guard in the draft, but the Bulls could look to grab someone like Dejounte Murray, Tyler Ulis or Demetrius Jackson to groom as a Rose replacement in 2017-18.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS (41-41)
Against all odds, trading for Markieff Morris at the deadline failed to save the Wizards' season, and they now find themselves lottery-bound and (very likely) without a pick. Certainly, the 12th or 13th pick would be nice to have, but Washington's sights are set much higher.
The KD-to-DC rumors have slowed down but they haven't subsided, and they'll only pick back up to borderline-insufferable levels once free agency nears. Durant coming home still seems like an improbable scenario, but the Wizards aren't going to back down, even if Durant has never truly given the franchise much reason for optimism.
Pitching Durant on a future of playing alongside Morris and John Wall in an arena where fans are routinely more fired up for free chicken than winning basketball games is a pipe dream at best, and Washington will likely have to set it sights on more realistic options, of which there should be plenty.
Washington isn't Los Angeles, but there are far worse NBA cities. And there are far worse cores than Wall, Morris, Otto Porter and Brad Beal (we'll get to him later). Washington could stand to add depth virtually all over the roster, primarily on the wing, where they struggled to replace Paul Pierce, especially with Beal missing a third of the season. Jared Dudley, Alan Anderson and Gary Neal are all free agents, as is Nene, who turns 34 in September and will likely move on following the worst statistical season of his career.
While none of those players are stars, all four were expected to be key contributors this season, so Washington will have holes to fill if they don't return on new deals. At some point, adding another top-flight player to team with Wall feels like a must in an era where at least two star-caliber players are a near-requirement for genuine title contention, but outside of Durant it's a free agent class relatively void of bona fide superstars.
Luring unrestricted Al Horford is probably Washington's second-best-case scenario, but there's little to no evidence that Horford has his eye on D.C., and the Hawks will do what they can to keep him in Atlanta. Andre Drummond isn't going anywhere, so that might mean taking a royal gamble on Dwight Howard or Hassan Whiteside is the biggest splash the Wizards could conceivably make.
Who knows if Washington even has its eye on either center, but on paper at least, both would help to solidify a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in defending shots at the rim this season.
The question of how to handle Beal's future is perhaps most pressing. The two sides agreed to table extension talks at the beginning of the season, making Beal a restricted free agent on July 1. Re-signing Beal has been the Wizards' intent all along, though they were hesitant last offseason, partially for cap reasons, to offer Beal the full max. Now, they may no longer hold the power to set their price if another team throws a max offer sheet his way, a la Portland and Enes Kanter last July.
Is Beal worth the max? When he's healthy, probably. When he's only playing 55 games and might be on a minutes restriction the rest of his career? Then there's some pause. Committing $20 million per year to a young player with a recurring stress injury is major risk, but the prevailing belief is that Washington is prepared to match nearly any offer sheet.
ORLANDO MAGIC (35-47)
Orlando has increased its win total each of the last four seasons, but it still doesn't feel like the Magic have made all that much progress. The Elfrid Payton-Victor Oladipo backcourt has shown flashes, but questions remain about that pairing long-term. Orlando still needs to find scoring in the frontcourt outside of Nikola Vucevic, but Aaron Gordon should be ready for more by next season.
Scott Skiles did Scott Skiles things and turned the Magic into a pretty good defensive squad, but they still struggled to find consistency, especially on the road. A promising 19-11 start was promptly wiped out by a horrific 2-12 month of January, as Orlando sank back into lottery territory, where it's dwelled every year since Dwight Howard left for Los Angeles.
After dealing one of their best players and making another cap-clearing move at the deadline, the Magic are prepared to be active in free agency. Projected to be armed with upwards of $50 million to spend, Al Horford is thought to be the top target, and either Harrison Barnes or Nic Batum would make sense as a potential addition on the wing, particularly if restricted free agent Evan Fournier signs elsewhere. Orlando could even try to lure Mike Conley away from Memphis, but spurning Memphis to join such an unproven team seems like a longshot.
Whether or not Orlando is able to land a big free agent or two, they'll need to fill out the roster with better depth off the bench. Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings will both be gone, so the Magic will need replacements at power forward and backup point guard. Orlando could pitch Ryan Anderson on returning, and they might be players for the services of guards like Jeremy Lin, Mario Chalmers and Ish Smith.
The Magic could also look to the trade market -- perhaps targeting a backup point guard like Darren Collison, Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams -- but it's difficult to speculate what they'd be willing to part with at this point.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS (33-49)
The Bucks were the worst volume three-point shooting team in the league last season, averaging just 5.4 makes per game and finishing 22nd in percentage. Milwaukee has now finished 23rd or lower in made threes each of the last three seasons, a concerning trend as the league continues to shift toward a more three-point heavy approach.
The Bucks learned the hard way that it's not necessarily realistic to simply expect bad shooters to develop into passable shooters in span of a summer. Three starters to begin the season -- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Michael Carter-Williams -- were each presumed to progress as outside threats, but none of the three demonstrated tangible improvement, accounting for just 52 combined made threes on the year.
Had it not been for another stellar season from Khris Middleton (143 makes, 39.6% 3PT), the Bucks might have challenged Minnesota's total of 406 made threes from a year ago, which may end up going down as a modern era record, of sorts, for three-point evasion. Middleton and Jerryd Bayless, who unexpectedly had a career year from beyond the arc, combined for 55.4% of the Bucks' made threes, the second-highest percentage in the league among teammates, behind only Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who accounted for an absurd 62.9% of Golden State's NBA-record 1,077 makes.
As the Warriors demonstrated, relying on only a couple of players to buoy your three-point attack isn't always a bad thing, but Curry and Thompson are far more the exception than the rule. Curry's 402 makes alone nearly outpaced the entire Bucks team.
The Bucks' lack of shooting produced season-long spacing issues, with defenders comfortably giving Antetokounmpo and Parker several feet of cushion on the perimeter. Milwaukee almost never had more than two shooting threats on the court, something that has to change next season but will be difficult without improvement on the part of at least one of Antetokounmpo and Parker.
Here's a great look at how opposing defenses routinely treated Antetokounmpo on the perimeter this season:
View post on imgur.com
" As things currently stand, Milwaukee's starting point guard, starting power forward and starting center (whether it's Greg Monroe, John Henson, Miles Plumlee or someone else), are all non-shooters, putting immense pressure on the two wing spots to offset the imbalance. With Parker sounding curiously hesitant about becoming a three-point threat, adding a stretch four off the bench should be another goal heading into the offseason.
Beyond Middleton and Bayless, Milwaukee was close to helpless from beyond the arc. O.J. Mayo played all of 41 games and shot a career low 32.1% from deep and still finished with the third-most makes on the team by a fair margin. Rashad Vaughn, billed as a three-point marksman coming out of UNLV, turned in a historically horrific rookie season season, while injuries prevented offseason addition Greivis Vasquez from making a tangible impact.
Carter-Williams didn't appear to improve much, if at all, over his half-season in Milwaukee in 2014-15, and his future with the team, much less as a starter, is now very much in jeopardy as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.
Bayless, Mayo and Vasquez are all unrestricted this summer, with the latter two expected to head elsewhere without much resistance. Milwaukee will likely try to bring back Bayless, a Jason Kidd confidant, at the right price, but GM John Hammond will still have holes to fill. Bayless is probably best suited as a first or second combo guard off the bench, so Milwaukee should be in the market for a swingman or two to pair with the versatile Middleton on the wing.
A splashy signing on the level of Greg Monroe probably isn't in the cards this time around, but the Bucks figure to be in play for several mid-tier free agents. Courtney Lee and Allen Crabbe would both be nice 3-and-D fits, but it's unlikely Portland would let the restricted Crabbe walk without a big-time offer sheet. Arron Afflalo, who holds a player option to remain in New York, could be another option, and the Bucks could even look into bringing back a veteran like Jared Dudley.
Milwaukee will also likely pick somewhere in the 9-to-11 range, and a stretchy wing who can contribute right away is probably what Hammond will target. Twenty-year-old French wing Timothe Luwawu is a name that's picked up steam recently.
The stretch-four market is a little more barren, but names like Mirza Teletovic and Terrence Jones, among others, could be in play. God bless his heart, but Milwaukee can't afford to go into next season with Johnny O'Bryant as its backup power forward.
The other glaring issue the Bucks face this summer is the future of the center position. This wasn't the plan, of course, after bringing in Monroe last July, at the time the biggest free agent signing in franchise history. There isn't enough room here to go down that rabbit hole, but suffice it to say it was clear almost immediately that Monroe wasn't the right fit. To Monroe's credit, he didn't underperform, posting the second-best PER of his career, but he floundered defensively and his old school, back-to-the-basket game failed to mesh with the fast-paced stylings of Milwaukee's young core.
With Monroe's contract only guaranteed through the 2016-17 season -- he holds a player option for 2017-18 -- Milwaukee isn't under immense pressure to make a deal, but he's considered to be available at the right price. Monroe's limited skill set will scare plenty of teams off, but he's still a career 15/9/2 guy entering his prime, so his value certainly hasn't bottomed out. Ideally, Milwaukee could move Monroe and bring back a shooting wing or stretch-four (or both) in return, but it's difficult to project exactly what the Bucks would demand.
Dealing Monroe would likely mean handing the keys to the center spot over to Henson, who struggled to stay healthy last season but has been effective when on the court. They'd love to have Mason Plumlee back as the No. 2 option, but he's a restricted free agent. With Henson's extension set to kick in, not to mention Antetokounmpo's inevitable max deal, it's unclear how rich of an offer sheet the Bucks will be willing to match for a backup center.
Of course, there's also the possibility that the Bucks swing for the fences and look outside the current roster for help at center. They were reportedly close to acquiringDwight Howard at the deadline and are considered one of the top four or five suitors for his services this summer after he opts out of his deal with Houston.
Howard is injury-prone and has grown into maybe the league's most divisive player, but he's still only 30 years old and remains a dominant defensive center when healthy and engaged. He was also woefully underused in Houston, operating as a P&R roll man on just 91 possessions all season.
Keeping Howard focused may be the most difficult task, but on paper he's a good fit next to Parker, who was one of the league's worst defenders at the position last season. Acquiring Howard still seems improbable, and it would surely be risky, but if Milwaukee is comfortable offering more than a one or two-year deal, Howard would at least have to listen.
NEW YORK KNICKS (32-50)
The Knicks still don't have a head coach, and at this point Phil Jackson hasn't really tipped his hand as to who he's targeting. Whether it's Luke Walton, Brian Shaw, Jeff Van Gundy, Kurt Rambis, or someone else, the new coach will step into an organization that lacks a sense of direction.
Despite declaring publicly, on several occasions, that he wants to play in New York, the future of Carmelo Anthony remains muddled. Anthony has two years, plus a player option, remaining on the five-year, $125 million megadeal he signed in 2014, and he's one of only a handful of players who holds a full no-trade clause, essentially giving him the freedom to choose where he plays. Anthony has maintained that he wants to be in the Big Apple, but he'll turn 32 the day after the draft and missing out on the playoffs for the third straight year has to be weighing on his mind.
Anthony has missed 52 games over the last two seasons, but when healthy he remains one of the league's most versatile and lethal scorers. Could he still be the best player on a contending team? Sure, but probably for only another season or two, and the Knicks current supporting cast of rag-tag free agents, former D-Leaguers and Kristaps Porzingis isn't nearly competent enough to make New York a serious title, let alone playoff, threat. Of course, the surprisingly rapid development of the 7'3" Porzingis supplies the Knicks with another premier talent, but the 20-year-old likely won't be ready to truly dominate for another season or two.
That leaves the Knicks at a crossroads.
By the time Porzingis hits the onset of his prime, Anthony will be exiting his. Porzingis is the Knicks' future and he's not going anywhere, but does Anthony want to stick around as the big man develops? And do the Knicks even want him around at a $25 million price tag? So far, the answer to both of those questions seems to be a resounding "yes."
Right now, the Knicks are stuck between rebuilding and gearing up for one final two or three-year run with Anthony as the centerpiece. Recent history indicates New York's reputation as the premier free agent destination has been sensationalized, but it's still a top-3 market, and with Jackson on board the Knicks will at least have a shot at landing just about any free agent.
With the no-trade clause in his back pocket, Anthony holds most of the power here. If he wants out, all he has to do is say so. The Knicks might not happily oblige, but Anthony asking for a trade would essentially save the organization from having to make a difficult decision. Anthony is no longer a blue-chip asset, but he's still a perennial All-Star with plenty left in the tank, especially if he were to join a team with an established star or two already in place. As such, he'd command a generous return, likely young assets and/or picks to expedite what would transition into a full rebuild around Porzingis.
That's probably what's best for the Knicks long-term, but parting ways with the face of the franchise is never easy for either side. That's why as of early May, the odds are in favor of Anthony staying put.
Whether that's ultimately the case or not, the Knicks need to upgrade their backcourt this offseason. New York doesn't have a first-round pick as the Andrea Bargnani trade continues to pay dividends, so free agency will be Jackson's primary focus, by default.
For starters, he'll need to find a replacement at shooting guard for Arron Afflalo, who's expected to decline his player option after finishing the season in a bench role. The Knicks could have as much as $30 million to work with, and names like DeMar DeRozan, Nic Batum and Kent Bazemore could all be in play. New York is also one of a handful of teams that could throw an offer sheet at restricted free agents Allen Crabbe, Evan Fournier or Brad Beal.
With Jose Calderon still under contract in 2016-17, the need at shooting guard is probably a bit more pressing, but the Knicks still haven't found a permanent answer at point guard since the days of… I guess, Raymond Felton?
Calderon is a good shooter and locker room presence, but he's a trainwreck defensively and will turn 35 in September. The Knicks like Langston Galloway -- hell, everyone likes Langston Galloway -- but the former D-Leaguer is nothing more than a steady backup for most teams, and he'll be a restricted free agent on July 1, assuming the Knicks pick up his uber-cheap $1.2 million qualifying offer.
New York has long been rumored to be a landing spot for Brandon Jennings, who bounced from Detroit to Orlando after rupturing his Achilles tendon midway through the 2014-15 season. Even before the injury, though, there were questions about Jennings' ability to run a team, so it's unclear if the Knicks still view him worthy of a multi-year deal.
There are plenty of options beyond Jennings, headlined by Mike Conley, whose future no one seems to be quite sure about. Restricted free agent Jordan Clarkson would also make sense, as would Mario Chalmers, Ish Smith or even Matthew Dellavedova.
Jackson could even raise the stakes and take a gamble on a reclamation project like Rajon Rondo or Ty Lawson. But perhaps the most intriguing scenario would be bringing Jeremy Lin back to The Garden, though Lin has made it clear that his intent is to re-sign in Charlotte.
BROOKLYN NETS (21-61)
With all due respect to the Cleveland Browns, the Nets are in perhaps the most unenviable position of any team in the four major professional sports.
Brooklyn will begin to feel the consequences of going all-in for a playoff run, leveraging assets in the form of future first-round picks to construct a murderer's row of past-their-prime veterans that failed to ever make it out of the second round. The Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett core would have torn up the East in 2006 -- the problem is Brooklyn brought them together in 2013.
Now the Nets are without a first-round pick this June and won't control their own first-rounder until 2019. What stings even more is this year's pick, owed to Boston, is almost guaranteed to land in the top five, with a good possibility that it ends up in the top three. Boston has the right to swap first-rounders with the Nets next season, and Brooklyn owes its pick outright to Boston again in 2018.
Yikes.
Brooklyn can do nothing but stand by and watch on draft night, but come July 1 it figures to be one of the most active teams on the free agent market. After all, with no lottery positioning to play for, the Nets' only choice is to build through free agency and attempt to avoid gifting the divisional rival Celtics another high pick in 2018.
Projected to have between $32 million and $39 million in cap space, new GM Sean Marks' first priority will likely be upgrading the backcourt. The Nets are set up front with the tandem of Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, but Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington aren't starters for 90% of NBA teams.
Jarrett Jack -- probably the Nets' third-best asset, by default, at the start of the season -- is almost 33 and coming off of a torn ACL. The Nets can save nearly $6 million in cap space by renouncing his contract before June 30, which seems like a no-brainer.
Mike Conley is probably too lofty a target in free agency, but Rajon Rondo, Jordan Clarkson, Eric Gordon, Arron Afflalo, Jeremy Lin, Evan Turner and Ish Smith are all much more realistic, and the Nets also have the flexibility to toss offer sheets in the direction of a few restricted free agents, like Brad Beal or Harrison Barnes.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers (10-72)
Philadelphia parted ways with the commander in chief of The Process, but the seeds sown by Sam Hinkie may finally be reaped in a big way come draft night.
Despite amassing just 37 wins over the last three seasons, the 76ers are yet to strike it rich at the top of the draft. Nerlens Noel is a nice piece, and Jahlil Okafor will have a productive NBA career -- the jury is still out on Joel Embiid -- but it'd be a stretch to say the Sixers have landed anything close to a franchise player.
Oh, and their three best assets all play the same position.
Certainly, bad luck has played a major part in missing out on Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Karl-Anthony Towns over the past two drafts, but the Sixers are hoping that changes in a big way this time around.
Philadelphia will have at least one top five (likely top three) pick, with the possibility of adding the elusive Lakers' pick, should it fall outside of the top three on lottery night. While this is a two-superstar draft, landing a pair of top-five picks would put Philadelphia in excellent position to hit the turbo button on its extended rebuild.
If everything breaks right, the Sixers could conceivably go into next season with one of Ben Simmons/Brandon Ingram, another top-five prospect (Dragan Bender? Buddy Hield? Kris Dunn?), Noel, Okafor, Embiid and Dario Saric as its top six assets.
A pairing of any two of those draft prospects -- and there are definitely more names in play -- is a promising young core in itself. Then you add arguably the top player in all of Europe and the three big men -- not to mention around $60 million in projected cap space -- and all of the sudden the 76ers have gone from misguided tankers to a franchise armed with a war chest of young assets.
Again, the front office has to nail this draft, and Saric finally coming over is still no guarantee, but that could be the easy part if the ping pong balls fall in the right place.
Regardless of what happens on draft night, the 76ers aren't going to be a good team next season. They're still at least two years away from truly turning this thing around, but that doesn't mean they won't stand by idly in free agency, as had been the case under Hinkie. With its loads of cap room, Philadelphia could chase virtually any free agent, but the Sixers will likely have to set their sights on mid-tier free agents or relatively unproven commodities seeking paydays, rather than a win-now situation. Philly could have one of the league's best young cores in place, but it'll be difficult to sell Mike Conley or Al Horford on a roster that's still so early in the developmental process.
In past drafts, the 76ers have adhered closely to the "best player available" mantra, landing them a trio of talented centers who don't necessarily fit together. The 76ers can probably go forth with any two of the three, but it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which they're comfortable employing a three-center rotation, especially considering the level of investment in each player. The key is Embiid, who's yet to play a minute in the NBA but still might have the highest upside of the three. If he's able to come back healthy and look like even 80% of the player who terrorized the Big 12 in 2013, the two-year wait will have been well worth it.
Either way, at some point the 76ers are going to have to make a decision in terms of which big men to build around. If Embiid's knee issues persist, that probably makes the call for them. If they don't, things get more complicated. All three players still have value on the trade market, and on the surface it would be wise for Philly to attempt to move one in hopes of returning another young asset at a different position.
That said, with Embiid's status still very much up in the air, the Sixers aren't under immense pressure to rush into a decision. Noel and Okafor have their deficiencies, but Embiid is really the only one of the three whose value could conceivably take a major hit over the next year or so. Obviously, that would mean bad news on the medical front, at which point Philadelphia would have to consider making Embiid someone else's restoration project.