The Long Game: Trade Deadline Dynasty Fallout

MLB's new unified trade deadline mostly just produced irate fan bases, but the actual deals did create some interesting opportunities, both for players and for fantasy GMs. In keeper and dynasty leagues in particular, the long-term value of some intriguing names got significant bumps, which is going to make the upcoming FAAB periods arguably the best shopping period of the year for teams in rebuild mode, aside from the actual auction.

Below I'm going to take a look at those names, and their potential long-term value, to help you narrow down which ones you want to target.

Young outfielders

Derek Fisher, Blue Jays

While the big-name bats who got dealt such as Yasiel Puig or Nicholas Castellanos don't see their value change much in their new surroundings – maybe Franmil Reyes is worth a bit more in a more neutral home park – there were a few guys who now have much clearer paths to playing time.

While Jays fans are groaning over the front office's gutting of the roster and the lack of high-profile prospects that came back, I actually think GM Ross Atkins did a pretty decent job. The only player he dealt away that the team will miss in any real way is Marcus Stroman, and he got back a potential ace (if one a few years away from the majors) for him in Simeon Woods Richardson, as well as a possibly useful mid-rotation arm in Anthony Kay. The guy who might really determine whether this was a successful trade deadline for the franchise or not is Fisher, picked up from the Astros for Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini.

On paper, this might look like another pointless Billy McKinney/Brandon Drury-like pickup. Fisher's already 25 years old, and he's been a flop in the majors so far (.201/.282/.367 in 312 plate appearances). He's also not a solution for the Jays in center field. What Fisher does have is a career .289/.379/.520 line with 50 homers and 40 steals through 238 Triple-A games, though. If he can solve his contact woes (35.3 percent strikeout rate in the bigs), he has the upside to be a middle-of-the-order bat in a way McKinney or even Randal Grichuk never will be. Fisher was thoroughly blocked in Houston – heck, if Kyle Tucker can't find a spot, what chance did Fisher have? -- but in Toronto, he could be a very useful complementary piece alongside the club's second-generation prospect core.

Phillip Ervin / Josh VanMeter, Reds

Cincinnati's deal for Trevor Bauer caught everyone by surprise, but it not only gave the roster a legit staff ace, it also created a Puig-sized hole in the outfield while sending the organization's top OF prospect, Taylor Trammell, out west. The logical replacement would be a platoon between VanMeter (.969 OPS vs. RHP, albeit in only 78 PA) and Ervin (a ridiculous 1.633 OPS in an even tinier 35-PA sample vs. LHP). However, with Scooter Gennett also gone, VanMeter could end up seeing plenty of time at second base, making both of them effectively starters.

Of the two, the 27-year-old Ervin has the best pedigree as a first-round pick in 2013, and his career .272/.352/.430 slash line through 187 games at Triple-A with 18 homers and 39 steals highlights his upside. VanMeter was a fifth-round pick in the same draft, but his minor-league numbers had few encouraging signs until he busted out at Triple-A this season and then carried that momentum forward into his big-league debut. Neither will end up as superstars, but in deeper formats they could end up providing solid value at a bargain price.

Victor Reyes, Tigers

Castellanos' departure for the Cubs, where he'll be the Rick Dalton to Kris Bryant's Clint Eastwood, opens up a starting spot in the Detroit outfield. That job could belong to Daz Cameron in September – the 22-year-old will need to be added to the 40-man roster in the offseason anyway, and he's started to find his footing at Triple-A, slashing .278/.447/.444 over his last 10 games for Toledo with a 10:11 BB:K – but in August, it will be Reyes who gets a long look. The 24-year-old was a Rule 5 pick last year and looked it while riding the Tigers bench, but his .304/.334/.481 line in 74 Triple-A games this season with 10 homers and 10 steals suggests he put his time in the majors to good use. Reyes doesn't offer as much power as you'd expect from a guy who stands 6-5, but his athleticism could allow him to develop into a solid fantasy asset.

Other hitters

Mauricio Dubon, Giants

There wasn't a lot of major movement on the infield, but one prospect who has a brighter outlook is Dubon. In Milwaukee, he was either going to have to improve his defense enough to handle shortstop in the majors or be stuck behind Keston Hiura at second base. In San Francisco, he could be starting at the keystone as soon as next Opening Day, with Gennett a pending free agent and Joe Panik looking for a raise in his final year of arbitration. The 25-year-old Dubon hasn't gotten a real crack at big-league pitching yet, but he's generally posted good batting averages in the minors and flashed some speed, and he's added power to his profile in Triple-A this year (then again, who hasn't?). If everything comes together for him, Dubon might have Elvis Andrus or Jean Segura-like upside.

Starting pitchers

Jake Faria, Brewers

Yes, Zac Gallen has more upside, but other than having a better offense behind him, his value didn't change much moving from Miami to Arizona. Faria, on the other hand, moves from an organization that had no room for him in the rotation to one that's trying to cobble a rotation together with duct tape and chewing gum. Faria's big-league numbers over parts of three seasons with the Rays were decent, and the 26-year-old right-hander has an 11.25 K/9 in Triple-A this season. Of course, his changeup-heavy repertoire could get punished in a place like Miller Park, but we're talking about a club that just traded for Jordan Lyles. Faria should get his chance, and soon.

Anthony Kay, Blue Jays

The southpaw was something of a pop-up prospect this season. Drafted late in the first round in 2016 out of college, Kay underwent Tommy John surgery that October and then spent all of 2017 recovering. He was pretty meh in his return to the mound last year, then exploded for a 1.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 70:23 K:BB in 66.1 innings at Double-A to begin this season. Kay's struggled since a promotion to Triple-A, both for Syracuse in the Mets' system and in his first start for Buffalo since the trade, but since he'll need to be added to the 40-man roster over the winter anyway, any flicker of success could earn him a September promotion to the majors, and he'll get every chance to fill a spot in the 2020 rotation. Kay's stuff is strong, as he can touch the mid-90s with his fastball and flash a plus curve and above-average changeup, but his control and command still need some refinement. If he seems capable of providing any kind of help to Toronto's dumpster fire of a rotation, he probably will.

Closers

Joe Jimenez / Buck Farmer, Tigers

Of all the name-brand closers on the block at the deadline, Shane Greene was the only one to actually get dealt, so Jimenez will finally get his chance to prove himself in the ninth inning for Detroit after a long apprenticeship as the club's designated Closer of the Future. The problem is, Jimenez has never been consistently dominant in the majors despite his 95 mph fastball. Since making his debut in 2017, the right-hander has a 5.75 ERA in the big leagues, although his 11.21 K/9 is encouraging. The biggest selling point for him is opportunity – the Tigers really don't have any other obvious candidates for the role. If Jimenez ends up spitting the bit, maybe the team's efforts to rehabilitate Trevor Rosenthal pay off, but the better secondary target might be converted starter Farmer, who hasn't given up a run since the All-Star break with a 10:3 K:BB in 8.2 innings. He's seen a big velocity jump in relief, making his changeup and slow curve more effective.

Ryne Stanek, Marlins

With Sergio Romo and Nick Anderson both sent packing, the closer job is wide open in Miami. The closest thing to an incumbent might be Jarlin Garcia, who has (checks notes) zero career saves, but the lefty hasn't given up a run since mid-June and could at least see matchup work against tough left-handed hitters in the ninth. A more likely option for semi-consistent saves might be Stanek, part of the package the Marlins got back from the Rays. The flamethrowing righty saw heavy use as an opener in Tampa, "starting" in 27 of his 41 appearances this year, but his high-90s fastball certainly looks closer-worthy. Of course, you could also say the same thing about Tayron Guerrero's triple-digit heat, but unlike Guerrero, Stanek can find the plate more often than not.

Mariners bullpen

I'm genuinely stumped on this one. With Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias both now Nats, the Seattle bullpen is utterly bereft of plausible closing options. They do have Arodys Vizcaino for 2020, but that doesn't help for the next two months, nor is there any guarantee Vizcaino will be healthy next year. Journeyman Anthony Bass has probably been the M's best reliever since the break with a 2.08 ERA and 12:1 K:BB in 8.2 innings. Journeyman Austin Adams was brilliant before straining his shoulder, and could get a chance if he still looks like the same pitcher once he's off the IL. And then there's Gerson Bautista, who has the best stuff in the bullpen but no idea where the plate is. Throwing a cheap dart at any of those guys could pay off, but a cheap dart is all any of them are worth.