This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
Usually when I sit down to pen my first Regan's Rumblings, I have a pretty good idea of how I expect the article to flow. This year, with all the uncertainty in this world, I am really not sure what to say other than to wish all of you and your families' safety, rolls and rolls of toilet paper, and good mental health. We're all focused on adapting to this new reality, so baseball seems less relevant now than it normally would, but hey, let's try and put this stuff aside and talk some baseball. This week I wanted to focus on a few starting pitchers whose value may actually rise as a result of COVID-19 delaying the season. The thought here is that some guys slated to be on an innings limit may actually pitch more of those innings in the majors versus the minors as they would have previously done. Take a top pitching prospect for example. Say his innings target for the year was 140 innings. In a normal year, the organization probably ramps him up slowly in Triple-A, perhaps with him throwing 60 innings before he comes up in June and tosses another 80 with the Major League team. Now, assuming there are no service time considerations (big unknown right now), it's highly possible that a larger chunk of those 140 innings comes at the big league level.
If we are optimistic and say that we're going to have a 120-game regular season, a pitcher who
Usually when I sit down to pen my first Regan's Rumblings, I have a pretty good idea of how I expect the article to flow. This year, with all the uncertainty in this world, I am really not sure what to say other than to wish all of you and your families' safety, rolls and rolls of toilet paper, and good mental health. We're all focused on adapting to this new reality, so baseball seems less relevant now than it normally would, but hey, let's try and put this stuff aside and talk some baseball. This week I wanted to focus on a few starting pitchers whose value may actually rise as a result of COVID-19 delaying the season. The thought here is that some guys slated to be on an innings limit may actually pitch more of those innings in the majors versus the minors as they would have previously done. Take a top pitching prospect for example. Say his innings target for the year was 140 innings. In a normal year, the organization probably ramps him up slowly in Triple-A, perhaps with him throwing 60 innings before he comes up in June and tosses another 80 with the Major League team. Now, assuming there are no service time considerations (big unknown right now), it's highly possible that a larger chunk of those 140 innings comes at the big league level.
If we are optimistic and say that we're going to have a 120-game regular season, a pitcher who normally would have given you 200 innings probably gives you 150 now, lessening the gap in value between himself and the hypothetical prospect above. Let's look at a few guys who could fall into this scenario. I'll focus on youth, though of course guys like Aaron Judge (ribs) and Justin Verlander (groin) would see a boost with a shortened season as well.
Nate Pearson, TOR – Injuries had limited Pearson to just 42 pro innings from 2017 to 2018, but the 6'6" flamethrower was healthy enough to eclipse 100 last year and did it with a 2.30 ERA across three levels. Pearson was hitting triple digits in camp this year prior to the shutdown, generating significant buzz while making a push to make the Opening Day roster. Comments from GM Mark Shapiro seemed to indicate that there won't be a specific innings cap, making it very possible now with the delay, that 100 percent of Pearson's 2020 innings would come with Toronto. His ultimate ceiling is quite high and will depend on how quickly his changeup develops, a pitch he rarely had to rely on given his plus slider and the upper-90s heat. Guys like Forrest Whitley and MacKenzie Gore may have more long-term upside, but other than Jesus Luzardo, there's not a pitching prospect I'd rather have for 2020 than this guy.
Julio Urias, LAD – Urias was confirmed as the No. 4 starter earlier this month, and after being babied last year coming off of shoulder surgery, the training wheels should now be off. Urias showed good velocity (95.2 mph average FB) pitching mostly out of relief last year, so it remains to be seen how dominant he can be as a full-time starter. The upside is certainly there, but as a starter, Urias has a decent, but not spectacular, 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 125:49 K:BB in 123 innings. Don't expect more than five-plus innings right away, but as long as that shoulder is healthy, he should get better and better as the year progresses.
Dylan Carlson, STL – We'll have to see what sort of agreement that MLB and the MLBPA come to on this issue, but one thing floating around to start is prorating service time based on when the season starts. This could still lead to service time manipulation if the season were to start on say June 15. Hold a guy in Triple-A until around June 27 results in an extra year. That said, this "break" also gives teams and players time to work out Luis Robert-type extensions, and the first player who could get one is Carlson (perhaps Jo Adell and Spencer Howard as well). Carlson had an .873 OPS and 5:6 K:BB in 38 PA this spring after hitting a combined .292/.372/.542 between AA and AAA a year ago. The Cardinals' outfield depth chart for now consists of Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neill. Not exactly Lonnie Smith, Willie McGee and Vince Coleman. Carlson will get his shot and it could come on Opening Day, whenever that is.
A.J. Puk, OAK – Puk appears recovered from Tommy John surgery and now has a shot at opening in the rotation. Puk appeared set to start out in the bullpen after being limited to just 36.2 innings in 2019, but now with the shortened season, he could log most or all of his appearances in the rotation. The 24-year-old Puk was hitting 97 to 98 on the gun as a reliever late last year, and as a former No. 6 overall pick, the 6'7" lefty's ceiling is sky-high. Now if the A's could only find a RHP on the level of Puk and Jesus Luzardo, then they'd have a 2020's version of Hudson/Mulder/Zito.
Griffin Canning, LAA – I remember debating Canning versus Shane Bieber a couple years ago in a dynasty, and though I for once made the right call there, Canning still deserves a look. The elbow is still troubling, but with the delayed start, he could still be ready by Opening Day. Canning started last year strong, but ultimately faded, posting a 5.43 ERA in his final 12 starts despite decent ratios (9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9). He's yet to exhibit the stuff and control of a top-of-the-rotation level starter, but assuming his elbow doesn't give out, he at least can eventually settle in as a No. 3/No. 4 on a contender.
Michael Kopech, CHW – Kopech currently slots as the No. 6 starter, and when Nos. 3 to 5 include Reynaldo Lopez (5.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 2019), Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) and Gio Gonzalez (how much does he have left?), the starts will be there for Kopech. I'd guess he makes two to three starts in Triple-A and then joins the White Sox rotation for the rest of the season. Kudos to the White Sox for getting Kopech, Lopez, Yoan Moncada, Dane Dunning and Lucas Giolito for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.
Garrett Richards, SD – Richards has made just 31 big league starts the past four seasons combined, but at times, he's flashed excellent strikeout potential. In 85 innings the past two years, Richards struck out a solid 98, but he also walked 40, though he's never been much of a control artist. Richards has looked good this spring, touching the upper-90s while not allowing a run and posting a 6:1 K:BB in 5.1 innings. Who knows how he'll look and feel once he ramps back up, but now that he's in the NL with a favorable home park and facing free agency after the season, things are lining up for a big year if his arm holds out.
Spencer Howard, PHI – The two months Howard missed last year with shoulder soreness are troubling, but when healthy, there's little doubt that he has the ceiling of a No. 1/No. 2 starter. In the 68.2 innings that he did manage in 2019, Howard compiled a 1.70 ERA and 91:15 K:BB in 68.2 innings. All told, since being drafted in 2017, Howard has put up an elite 12.0 K/9 while showing vastly improved control in 2019. The Phillies have massive questions in their rotation once you get past Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, so it would not surprise me a bit if Howard made all of his 2020 starts with the Phillies.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, PIT – Hayes has been more potential than production so far, batting a so-so .265/.336/.415 in Triple-A last year, but his 70-grade defense and offensive potential should have him in the big leagues before long. Indeed, his name was floated this spring as a potential Luis Robert type contract candidate, something that would put him in the big leagues likely on Opening Day. He was optioned to Triple-A before things shut down, so some time in the minors seems likely, but despite the 80-RBI season in 2019, Colin Moran doesn't have the look of a big league regular. Hayes should spend a decent chunk of 2020 with the Pirates.
MacKenzie Gore, SD – Sure he has just five starts above A-ball, but the Padres have promoted their top guys aggressively, so who's to say they won't shudder at the thought of a back-end-of-the-rotation consisting of Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi and go, "you know what, you get the job Gore." Gore is on the short list of the game's top pitching prospects, and in 183 career innings, the lefty has a 2.56 ERA and impressive 12.0 K/9. It's rare that we see a 21-year-old with more than two plus pitches, let alone Gore's four. I do think he'll spend a chunk of 2020 with the Padres, but who knows, he could be in the Opening Day rotation at this point.
