This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
I thought about looking at some Statcast leaders, but I think I'll save that for next week. There's just too much news this week that I wanted to comment on. Top prospects getting promoted, injuries, role changes, guys struggling and not struggling, and others hoping to prove their hot starts aren't a precursor to regression. This week, let's look at 10 questions/situations that I had as I scanned the week's news.
Dylan Carlson, STL – Starting Outfielder?
RotoWire's No. 7 overall prospect, Carlson has arrived as a big leaguer, going 2-for-10 with a walk in his first three games. Odds are, he's here to stay, playing most every day. Harrison Bader is hitting .125. Dexter Fowler is batting .318 in seven games, but he was terrible the two years prior. Tyler O'Neill has great power, but his ability to hit for average is very much in question. Carlson, meanwhile, played 126 games as a 20-year-old in 2019, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A and hitting .192/.372/.542 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His 10.3 BB percentage was excellent, and his 20.6 K percentage was solid enough these days. On the flip side, the three years prior, Carlson hit just .245 in his previous 277 minor league games, so there have been some contact issues in his past. That said, he's always been young for his level, and I'd put far more weight on the recent book of work. He could be a fantasy star, and quickly.
Casey Mize should be great, but what about Tarik Skubal?
Mize has deservedly received more prospect love as a former No. 1 overall pick, but don't sleep on Skubal. He's risen to No. 75 on RotoWire's top-400 prospects list, and the numbers are eye-popping. In 122.2 innings last year split between High-A and Double-A, Skubal recorded a 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and elite 13.1 K/9. His control wasn't elite with a 2.7 BB/9 but that's still adequate enough. The lefty's 92 to 95 mph fastball hits upward of 98 at times, though location has been an issue (command), and his secondary stuff is behind his fastball in terms of effectiveness. Some scouts have tagged him as a potential elite reliever, but at 23, the Tigers are rightfully going to try him in the rotation initially. He has just nine starts above High-A, so while the fastball may be major league ready, expect his inexperience to show at times as he makes his debut this week. Anyone who struck out 48.2 percent of the Double-A hitters he faced is worth gambling on, though whether he can consistently locate his fastball remains to be seen.
Kirby Yates, SD – Out for a while?
This is why it's really tough to invest hard into elite closers. In 2019, Yates put up one of the best seasons ever for a reliever, recording a 1.19 ERA, 41 saves and 101 strikeouts. The velocity was there, but with a 12.46 ERA, the results were not. After his last outing, Yates was diagnosed via MRI with a bone chip in his pitching elbow and is out indefinitely. He'll get a second opinion on his treatment plan, so while he could return later this year, expecting him back prior to September is probably wishful thinking. Probably not the best timing for Yates, who is a free agent after the season. Next man up is expected to be Drew Pomeranz who has allowed just one hit all season in 7.2 scoreless innings. Pomeranz obviously should be owned in all formats. Should Pomeranz regress to the 2018-2019 form (5.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) he showed as a starter, the Padres could turn to Emilio Pagan. Pomeranz, though, was actually really good in relief last year, posting a 1.99 ERA in relief after moving to the bullpen in July. Late, late edit: It appears Yates will undergo season-ending elbow surgery. It appears to NOT be Tommy John surgery.
Evan White, SEA – Any hope?
These pre-MLB debut six-year deals have the potential for huge returns for the club, particularly as the player hits years four to six when he normally would have been arbitration-eligible. It should work well for the White Sox with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, but it also has Jon Singleton and Scott Kingery potential. Where does White fall? Well, so far, the Mariners' first baseman is hitting just .120 with a 44.0 K percentage. Yikes. Why the six years? He's a good athlete and a plus defender who was drafted No. 17 overall in 2017. He then hit a solid .293/.350/.488 in Double-A last year with a more reasonable 23.0 K percentage. White is 24, but he has little upper-level minor league experience, so this looks to be a "learning on the job" situation. We still think highly of him, ranking White No. 38 on our top-400 prospects list, but the growing pains are real. He belongs on fantasy owners' benches at this point, though dynasty leaguers eventually should be rewarded for their patience. It just may not happen until 2021/2022.
Dylan Moore, SEA – Starter?
Moore doesn't have a set position, but on our Mariners' depth chart, we see him listed at eight of nine positions, with catcher the only exception. With Moore hitting a solid .267/.371/.550, he's still found himself in the lineup on a regular basis lately, and if you're a fantasy owner who rostered him early, you've benefitted from a surprising four home runs and five stolen bases. It was a bit tough to see this coming after Moore hit just .206/.302/.389 last year in 282 PA. He's still striking out at a 30 percent clip, and the .343 BABIP doesn't seem likely to continue, though if he can somehow keep anywhere near his 51.3 percent hard-hit rate, perhaps the BA can be relatively maintained. Maybe this is a mirage, but if he can continue getting on base, Moore has the speed to swipe 20-plus bases (in a full season) to go with 20-homer power. Perhaps the Mariners have their own Chris Taylor after trading the real Chris Taylor away a few years ago.
Gavin Lux, LAD – Getting closer?
Many of us assumed Lux would continue the ridiculous pipeline of young talent in LA, but he's been a bit of a mystery so far this year. Lux came to summer camp late for undisclosed reasons (COVID?) and once he did report, the results just weren't there. He's been at the team's alternative site ever since, with the only in-season report coming on August 2 when manager Dave Roberts stated that Lux was getting closer to a return. Why that still hasn't happened 2-plus weeks later is unknown, but we have to assume Lux will be up shortly. The thing is, right now the Dodgers don't really need him. They can use Edwin Rios some at first and Max Muncy at second. Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez can handle the keystone. Lux will be back this month most likely, but he'll need to hit quickly to garner the lion's share of the second base job.
Corbin Burnes, MIL – Back in the rotation
Not many pitchers matched Burnes' hype last month, as he was set to be the team's No. 2 starter after impressing in camp with his upper-90s stuff and elite slider/cutter. In start No. 1, Burnes wasn't sharp, allowing just one run in 3.1 innings while striking out six, but he also walked three and hit a batter. I guess that was enough to banish him to a long reliever role, where in 12.2 innings, Burnes posted a 3.55 ERA and 12.8 K/8, but also a 5.7 BB/9. Lack of control has long been an issue, as this 16.7 BB percentage/3.7 BB/9 career walk rate is a bit high. Guys who miss a lot of bats while missing the strike zone are always interesting, because, if they can ever figure out how to consistently get the ball over the plate, a huge leap forward is possible. A solid outing Tuesday should give Burnes a bit of rope, as the Milwaukee rotation isn't exactly filled with Teddy Higuera types.
Joey Bart, SF – Working out at first base
Some guy named Chadwick Tromp (really) appears to be the Giants' new starting catcher, pushing Tyler Heineman to the No. 2 spot. Tromp did homer in back-to-back games earlier this month, but since then, he's 4-for-23 with no extra base hits or walks, and nine strikeouts. Bart, meanwhile, has just 22 games above High-A on his resume, but he hit .316/.368/.544 in those Double-A games, and this isn't exactly a "normal" year. Will the Giants want to at least see what the kid has as they look to 2021? Yes, and it should happen soon. Bart reportedly is taking grounders at first base, as the team wants to give him some reps there, but most of his work likely would take place behind the plate. In the near term, Bart likely profiles as a .260 hitter with double-digit power, and while that's well below what the Giants hope to see from him in his prime, it's certainly better than anything they have right now.
Elieser Hernandez, MIA – This guy good?
The problem last year with Hernandez was pretty obvious – a 2.2 HR/9. That's essentially a home run every four innings or so, which is really bad. What wasn't as bad were his ratios, including a 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Those have improved this year to 11.7 and 1.2 respectively, and the HR/9 has dropped to 0.6, resulting in his 1.84 ERA in 14.2 innings. Hernandez is averaging 91 mph with his fastball, which, while low relative to the league, is at least up .4 mph over last year. It seems unlikely the HR rate will continue to be much below 1.0, as his GB percent is actually down over last year to 26.5 percent, and his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate is well below league average. Since 2018, his flyball tendencies have been mitigated by his home park (3.51), but his work on the road has been a different story (6.53 ERA). I'd be a bit nervous using him on the road, but he's at least worth a look as a streamer for his home starts against lesser offenses. I'd need to see a few more data points before buying in.
Bradley Zimmer, CLE – Will he get a chance?
After reportedly faring very well in intrasquad action, the former top prospect made the team as a reserve outfielder, though his playing time has been sporadic at best. After starting strong, Zimmer is in a 3-for-25 slump, though that does include six walks and a stolen base. Zimmer was on fantasy owners' radars way back in 2015 when he swiped 45 bases and hit 16 home runs between High-A and Double-A, though his swing-and-miss ways that year (23.9 K percentage) seemed to foreshadow his recent struggles. Now healthy apparently, Zimmer is fighting for playing time in what has been a pretty disappointing outfield. Witness his "competition" for playing time:
Tyler Naquin – back from toe injury and 3-for-19 (.158)
Domingo Santana – .174, 29.1K percentage
Jordan Luplow – a lovely 1-for-26 after last year's .923 OPS
Delino DeShields – 6-for-18 with 0 XBH or steals
The Indians' clubhouse may be a mess, but they are still 13-9, just one game back of the Twins, so they will be inclined to go with the hot hand, but Zimmer hasn't started a game in several days. Whether that continues remains to be seen.
