Mound Musings: NL East Draft Day Targets

Pitchers and catchers are reporting, and that means baseball season is upon us! So many things are evolving with regard to pitching dynamics – like "openers" rather than "starters" and less defined roles in many bullpens – but we need to adjust if we want to compete for that coveted league championship. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and, hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. Things will surely change as Spring Training progresses, but we handle those on the fly. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Last spring the Braves were trying to answer some question marks for their rotation. Julio Teheran was expected to lead the staff despite being rather inconsistent over his major league career. There were cautious expectations regarding the promising, but unproven, Mike Foltynewicz, and the rest of the crew was made up of recycled journeymen placeholders and some pretty nice rookies. Foltynewicz took a major step forward, but Teheran has yet to convince me he can consistently perform at the level of a top starter. He doesn't have to now. Kevin Gausman has escaped Baltimore and will join Folty at the top of the rotation. Both are worthy draft day targets, and yes, I expect a very big year from Gausman. Young Sean Newcomb rounds out the top four, but there looks to be even better options ready to push their way up the pecking order. If healthy, Mike Soroka has the skill set to perform near the top of the rotation, but he missed a lot of time last year with shoulder woes, so his work this spring should be closely monitored. The Braves have an exceptionally deep pool of young arms, and a few are getting close. Tookie Toussaint opened some eyes late last season and should see plenty of time in Atlanta again this summer. Kyle Wright is close to ready, Luiz Gohara is a bit raw, but talented, and Ian Anderson is at the top of their remaining pitching prospect list, but they won't need to rush him.

Taking a quick look at the bullpen, Arodys Vizcaino will likely break camp as the closer. He is a fairly competent option – as long as he stays healthy and stays close to the strike zone – but he's not a front line end gamer and can be vulnerable to left-handed hitters. I actually like southpaw A.J. Minter a bit better, and with Vizcaino's fragility, and some excuse to match up, I think he could end up with a fair share of the save opportunities.

Recapping the Braves:

The arm to own: Kevin Gausman
He's not for me: Julio Teheran
Best of the bullpen: A.J. Minter

Miami Marlins – The Marlins are the antithesis of the Braves. There will probably be seven or eight arms hoping to fill their Opening Day rotation, but none of them profile as top-of-the-rotation fantasy assets. Jose Urena could be fantasy worthy, but he is still learning to pitch, and the offense is unlikely to provide him with much comfort while he develops. Next on the depth chart are probably Dan Straily and Wei-Yin Chen, They could be options for the back end of a very deep league fantasy rotation, but I'd hope to find better options. Caleb Smith, of whom I'm not a big fan, although he is reportedly healthy now, Trevor Richards, who is a mediocre (that's generous) starter, and Pablo Lopez are all cannon fodder who might fill out the back of the rotation, at least early on. On the bright side, there are a handful of respectable young arms in the system. Sandy Alcantara came over in the Marcell Ozuna deal last year, and Sixto Sanchez was the headliner in the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, but they aren't ready for prime time. Consider Urena, if the price is right, but on the whole, this is a rotation to avoid.

The Marlins bullpen isn't much better than their rotation. The Giants tried for years to find someone who would allow them to keep Sergio Romo in a set-up role. Now, he will likely open the year as the closer in South Florida, but that doesn't mean you want to count on him for saves. Kyle Barraclough is gone, leaving Drew Steckenrider as the heir apparent to eventually inherit the gig. Like their rotation, the bullpen is very thin, and even Romo doesn't likely last past the trade deadline.

Recapping the Marlins:

The arm to own: Jose Urena
He's not for me: Everyone else
Best of the bullpen: Drew Steckenrider

New York Mets – There was speculation last season that the Mets might break up their team, including some top tier pitchers, but they stayed the course and have added rather than subtracting. They are loaded with pitching – at least at the top of the rotation, as long as they stay healthy. Jacob DeGrom is the ace, and he deserves the title, but he could share it with Noah Syndergaard, who is arguably the best young arm in the game when at full strength. Health is a concern, still, he is as dominant as they come, and I'm all in on him. After years of injury woes, Zack Wheeler finally got healthy and contributed solid innings last season. He was once mentioned with Syndergaard and the departed Matt Harvey, so don't overlook him. I don't list him in the top tier, but he could be useful at the right price. I'm bit less enthusiastic about Steven Matz who hasn't been the same since undergoing elbow surgery to relieve nerve irritation. The back of the rotation isn't the strongest group. Jason Vargas is probably the fifth starter and can toss decent innings when in a groove, but Julio Lugo also figures to see some starts in an emergency – he's better in the bullpen, so a weak option – while Robert Gsellman could also fill in as a swing man if the need arises.

The Mets had a pretty good pen, but in the offseason they took it to a whole new level. They signed Edwin Diaz who had an incredibly dominant season in Seattle last year. A signing like that has a domino effect. Jeurys Familia has proven he can be a very reliable closer (he lead the league with 51 saves in 2016) and now moves to the eighth inning. Lugo and Gsellman, mentioned above, will contribute, while Justin Wilson and Luis Avilan help out from the left side, but Diaz and – at least in holds leagues – Familia are the Mets' relievers to own.

Recapping the Mets:

The arm to own: Noah Syndergaard
He's not for me: Steven Matz
Best of the bullpen: Edwin Diaz

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies' rotation presents an intriguing scenario. They have built a better staff, but I think it is still a notch behind the other teams in the division – with one exception. I have loved Aaron Nola since his college days. He is an exceptionally talented workhorse, who thrives on competition, and those guys are always very valuable. I think he would take the ball every day if he were allowed to do that. I've also been a big fan of Jake Arrieta for quite some time, but he's been something of a disappointment of late. For the past couple seasons his peripherals have been trending in the wrong direction. He's not the power pitcher he was, and while his groundball rate is up, the strikeout rate has declined. Still, I see flashes of the old Arrieta, and his lackluster numbers could make him a bargain buy on draft day. Next up is a risk-laden flyer that has shown me enough to warrant late-round attention. Nick Pivetta has some dynamic stuff. He can put hitters away and limit baserunners. He just needs to cut down on mistakes over the middle of the plate. Keep a close eye on him. The lackluster group following the top three to the mound includes Jerad Eickhoff (his mediocre stuff doesn't excite me very much), Vince Velasquez (always something of a roller coaster), plus, possibly, Zach Eflin. All three are No. 5 starters in MLB at best and unlikely to warrant a spot on any but the deepest fantasy rosters). Another thought might be young Enyel De Los Santos, who at least has a little potential upside, but he's not the complete answer either. What the team needs is a solid southpaw, as none of their current starting options are left-handed.

This bullpen is an interesting case study. The best reliever is Seranthony Dominguez, but he had a tough year as he was asked to pitch anytime the game was on the line from the middle innings to closing. Predictably, he wore down as the workload took its toll. The team has brought in David Robertson, presumably to handle the ninth inning, so Dominguez can be deployed as a super reliever. I think Robertson is a better option as a set-up guy, so that plan may be short-lived. Hector Neris is also available, but he has shown closing isn't his best role, while Juan Nicasio, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and lefty Adam Morgan will also get some innings, but few save chances.

Recapping the Phillies:

The arm to own: Aaron Nola
He's not for me: Jerad Eickhoff
Best of the bullpen: Seranthony Dominguez

Washington Nationals – Most teams celebrate if they have one true ace. Not the Nationals. They already have co-aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. When they're healthy and clicking they don't get any better. And over the offseason they added emerging lefty Patrick Corbin. The rich get richer. Scherzer was an absolute beast (again) last year, and Strasburg was just as overwhelming on his best days. Corbin showed his upside in Arizona, so he should benefit from the move to a more pitcher-friendly home park. I believe they'll combine to be a dominant force going forward. Compared to Scherzer, you may be able to buy Strasburg or Corbin at a more reasonable price. Go for it. I'd like to own at least one. They'll be followed by some less appealing arms. Anibal Sanchez is both fragile – and probably because of assorted injuries – inconsistent. Jeremy Hellickson is more of an innings eater who benefits from pitching for a very good team. Both are competent placeholders, but I look for Joe Ross to step it up as he settles in following recovery from Tommy John surgery, and perhaps Austin Voth and/or Erick Fedde could develop into back of the rotation producers, but neither figures to be a big fantasy asset.

Sean Doolittle is the closer in Washington and he's very good at his job. He's one of that rare breed capable of consistently retiring hitters, even when they know what's coming. He throws fastballs, very lively fastballs, and hitters can't square him up. The only danger with Doolittle is a track record of injuries. He's been fairly healthy, but that will always be a concern. If Doolittle does get banged up, or just needs a day off, the Nats have a couple of interesting alternatives. They signed flame-throwing, albeit wild, Trevor Rosenthal, and former Marlins' closer-in-waiting Kyle Barraclough. The team hopes one (or both) will claim key set-up duties and serve as an insurance policy for Doolittle. Koda Glover is also a consideration, but a shoulder injury slowed his development and he will have to prove that is behind him.

Recapping the Nationals:

The arm to own: Patrick Corbin
He's not for me: Anibal Sanchez
Best of the bullpen: Sean Doolittle

Next week we'll look at the AL East.