MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

For the last Barometer of April, we'll look at the players whose stock has most improved based on their performances in the first month of the season. Rather than simply pick out the players myself, I'll turn things over to the numbers. I'll present a series of tables showing which players' performances have been most out of line with their respective draft positions. 

These tables represent more of a results-based analysis than is usually found in this column, but it's worth remembering that fantasy leagues (at least every league I've ever seen) deal in actual batting averages and ERAs rather xWOBACONs and spin rates. The players found in these lists might not continue to perform at their current levels, but the value they've produced is already in the books. We'll investigate a few players who do seem to be legitimately reaching new heights or new depths.

These lists were created by comparing each player's NFBC ADP with his ranking on the Earned Auction Values list. The latter page was set to show values for a 15-team league with standard NFBC settings (14 hitters and nine pitchers), with 70 percent of the budget spent on hitters. I ignored players whose underperformance was primarily due to injuries preventing them from taking the field or delayed callups preventing them from accruing value. 

RISERS

Top-100 Picks

Joey Gallo, 1B/OF, Rangers: Gallo's previous two seasons were nearly identical, with batting averages of .209 and .206 and home run totals of 41 and 40, so it's no surprise that fantasy owners thought they'd more or less pegged his value as a mid-seventh rounder. This season, he's suddenly producing value like someone who deserved to be picked at the one/two turn, hitting .259 despite a still-awful 35.6 percent strikeout rate. His supporting stats suggest that the improvement is legitimate. He's always been loved by Statcast, but he's taken things to new levels across the board this season, with jumps in barrel rate (from 22.5 percent to 30.6 percent), average exit velocity (93.9 percent to 98.7 percent) and hard-hit rate (from 49.1 percent to 65.3 percent). He still has the same issues making contact that he's always had, but by being more selective at what he chooses to swing at, dropping his swing rate from 48.3 percent to 42.5 percent, the contact he does make is even better than before.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals: Drafted in the middle of the sixth round on average, Ozuna has played like a top-five pick this season. He's done more than simply recapture the form that saw him hit .312 with 37 homers in 2017, at least according to Statcast. While his actual batting average comes in much lower this season at .264, his expected batting averages in the two seasons are virtually identical (.287 and .286). The rest of his profile shows 2019 as the clearly superior version. His launch angle has significantly increased, now at 15.6 degrees after a career high 10.8 degrees, leading to an incredible increase in barrel rate – 21.2 percent, far above his career high 9.7 percent.

Picks 101-450

Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins: A 30th-round pick this draft season, Smith has  pitched like someone who should have been picked at the four/five turn, right around where Stephen Strasburg and Mike Clevinger went. The southpaw showed some promise before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last June, pairing a playable 4.19 ERA with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate. That's the sort of pitcher I love to pick up late in drafts, as you can generally count on similarly strong strikeout numbers, while his ERA could fluctuate in either direction. He's done far more than repeat his numbers this season, however, as his strikeout rate has spiked to 33.9 percent (fifth among qualified pitchers) while his walk rate has been trimmed from 10.1 percent to 6.4 percent. His 85.9 percent strand rate and .226 BABIP suggest that his 2.17 ERA is somewhat better than he deserves, but even if that number falls back to match the most pessimistic of his publicly available ERA estimators (his 3.07 xFIP), he'll still be an excellent return on investment.

Chris Paddack, SP, Padres: Paddack was written up in the first Barometer of the season, but he deserves another mention after posting a 1.67 ERA through five starts and returning value in line with a late fifth-round fantasy pick. That low ERA is attributable in part to a clearly unsustainable .138 BABIP, but the skills appear to be as advertised. He hasn't been able to keep up his ridiculously low 2.4 percent walk rate from his minor-league days, but his 8.1 percent mark as a big leaguer is still more than a percentage point better than league average. His 30.3 percent strikeout rate ranks 14th among pitchers with at least 25 innings this season, one spot behind Justin Verlander. A potential innings limit will eventually become a concern, but for now Paddack is a strong option who deserves to be in the lineup every week.

Picks After 450

Tommy La Stella, 2B/3B, Angels: La Stella has returned seventh-round value after going almost universally undrafted this spring. His track record suggests he'll fall back quite a bit, but his stat line is nevertheless worth a look. He's already set a career high with seven home runs, and his career highs in barrel rate (7.5 percent), hard-hit rate (34.3 percent) and expected slugging percentage (.481), while modest, do indicate he's hitting the ball better than ever. He's also seeing the ball quite well, with his 11.5 percent walk rate twice as high as his miniscule 5.7 percent strikeout rate. The 30-year-old appears to be a fine budget option after previously not being worthy of even a bench spot.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: The man who gave the most expensive inspirational speech in baseball history might finally be starting to earn his $184 million contract through conventional means. The 29-year-old hadn't come close to matching his 134 wRC+ from his rookie season, but his 149 mark this season represents a sudden improvement across the board, with each part of his .312/.433/.519 slash line a career high. His excellent 17.5 percent walk rate (well above his 10.3 percent career mark) suggests he's seeing the ball better than ever, but he's also doing more damage when he makes contact, with Statcast-era career highs in barrel rate (8.1 percent), exit velocity (90.4 mph), launch angle (13 degrees) and hard-hit rate (41.9 percent). He'll have to prove he can keep this up, and returning third-round value at the end of the season would certainly be a surprise, but his .315 expected batting average indicates that he's deserved the improved numbers he's posted.

FALLERS

Top-100 Picks

Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: This list is dominated by starting pitchers, demonstrating the position's inherent volatility and the damage that can be done by one or two poor starts. Kluber isn't necessarily the worst of this bunch, but his supporting statistics give reason for concern, especially considering that at his age (33), a downturn in skills wouldn't be particularly surprising. He's recorded quality starts in just two of his six trips to the mound this season, and while his 5.81 ERA may be higher than he deserves, the ERA estimators (4.20 FIP, 4.91 xFIP, 4.54 SIERRA) generally see an uninteresting arm at best. He's lost both strikeouts (down from 26.4 percent in 2018 to 23.8 percent this season) and groundballs (down from 44.4 percent last year to 37.2 percent this year), though his 10.2 percent walk rate, more than double his 4.0 percent mark from last season, is perhaps most concerning. He still has plenty of time to figure things out, but unless his control returns, he won't be the ace his fantasy owners are looking for.

Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers: Concerns about Buehler were mentioned in the first Barometer of the season, and he's done little to dissuade those fears through his first five starts. The 24-year-old was solidly above average or better in strikeout rate (27.9 percent), walk rate (6.8 percent) and groundball rate (50.0 percent) last season. This year, his strikeout rate (18.4 percent) and groundball rate (39.1 percent) have each plummeted well below league average, while his walk rate (8.2 percent) has also taken a step back. Pitch-mix changes could be part of the problem, as he's now mostly just a fastball-slider pitcher after cutting his curveball percentage from 13.8 percent to 8.1 percent and almost completely abandoning his changeup, dropping its usage from 3.8 percent to 0.5 percent. His curve was graded as his top secondary offering by scouts and held batters to a .462 OPS last season, but it's been teed off against this season to the tune of an .875 OPS. He'll likely need to find the pitch again if he's to live up to his draft price.

Picks 101-450

Rick Porcello, SP, Red Sox: Another list dominated by pitchers, demonstrating why waiting to take your pitchers until later in the draft to avoid the volatility found on the previous list is far from a foolproof plan. Porcello is a prime example of how even seemingly established, boring veterans at the position can suddenly become something else (and usually something worse). The control artist hadn't walked more than six percent of batters in a season since his rookie campaign back in 2009, yet his walk rate has spiked to 12.8 percent this season. He's paired that with a 17.1 percent strikeout rate after striking out at least 20 percent of batters in each of the previous four seasons. Porcello's two best starts of the year have been his two most recent ones, and his start to spring was delayed along with the rest of the Red Sox rotation, so it's at least possible that he could provide value in line with his draft position from this point.

Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs: Hendricks is yet another example of the risk that comes with trusting low-strikeout, low-ERA pitchers. He's continued to be the former, recording a mediocre 20.2 percent strikeout rate, but he hasn't been the latter, with his ERA coming in at 5.33 through five starts. Outside of his lone gem (an 11-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks in his fourth start of the year), he's yet to throw more than five innings or strike out more than four batters in an outing. The margin for error is thin for a pitcher with an 86.2 mph fastball, and Hendricks has erred more than ever this season. His 61.3 percent first-strike percentage is the lowest of his career, and his 82.9 percent contact rate is tied for highest. He may not deserve the entirety of his 5.33 ERA, but even regressing to his 4.41 SIERRA or 4.13 xFIP wouldn't make him worth his ninth-round draft price given his relative lack of whiffs.