Farm Futures: Draft Preview + Midseason Mailbag

Before getting to the midseason mailbag, I wanted to provide a preview of what the top 30 of the top 400 prospect rankings might look like if I updated it today and added my top three draft prospects:

I'm going to be talking with several great draft analysts on upcoming podcasts and I've only studied the top 20 or so draft prospects thus far, so the FYPD rank order and placement on the top 400 are still subject to change, but as of now, Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt are my top three draft prospects, and the only prospects I'd slot into the top 30. Here is a very early top 12:

I'm tentatively planning on being pretty cautious with where I place them initially on the top 400, as the college run-scoring environment was insane and record-setting this year. As Geoff Pontes chronicled for Baseball America, there are hot bats and hot balls in play in D-1 college baseball as teams are trying to get any edge they can, bending or even breaking the rules when they can get away with it, and big-league teams can't accurately discern which college hitters' stats are juiced and which are clean, or as clean as they can reasonably be with metal bats and small home parks.

Let me know in the comments if there are any sleepers from this class you're particularly high on for dynasty leagues!

Sneakyturtle: I'm wondering if Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) can hold this 21.1 K%, do you believe he is a potential top 100 prospect?

Yeah, Noel, who got the call midway through today's podcast, is a must-add if he's out there in any dynasty leagues. Kyle Manzardo is a year older than Noel, and they've been similarly productive at Triple-A (better approach for Manzardo). Noel has as much power as any prospect in Cleveland's system (more than Manzardo), but he's a designated hitter, so this improvement to his hit tool was needed. He was a top-100 prospect in late-2021 and I'd say he's back there as of today. Noel is hitting .403/.470/.714 with nine home runs and a 14.2 percent strikeout rate in 29 games since the last update to the prospect rankings.

Kluo87: Could we be looking at a Jackson Chourio-esque prospect ascension for Sebastian Walcott (TEX)? He has been more than holding his own in High-A as a young 18-year-old...

What Walcott has been doing at High-A lately is really impressive. He's slashing .306/.346/.531 with three home runs, two steals, a 27.1 K% and a 5.6 BB% in his last 25 games. Obviously the approach is still a little iffy against this caliber of pitching, but the assignment to High-A was so aggressive, I think we need to view this as Walcott acing the assignment. He's already in the top 40, and I'm not sure how high he'll climb since I'll be adding the draft prospects on the next update, but tools-wise, the Chourio comp is on point. Walcott is 6-foot-4 and an infielder and Chourio is a 6-foot outfielder, but they both have big-time bat speed and 30/30 upside with aggressive approaches.

Yarika Rose: What are the chances Logan Evans (SEA) debuts this summer? He's been pitching one inning at a time lately, and I wonder what the plan for him might be...

Yeah, there was a report three weeks ago about Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto calling Evans to approach him about joining the big-league bullpen this summer. Evans threw 78 total innings in 2023 and sits at 59.2 innings so far in 2024. From April 17 through May 29, Evans made eight starts, going five-plus innings in seven of the eight while logging a 0.84 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 43 innings. He's a no-doubt starter to me long term, but he probably wasn't going to be able to go five-plus innings every six days over the whole season. 

It's frustrating, because I would have loved to see Evans be the replacement for Bryan Woo in the big-league rotation, but he's obviously not an option in the short-term given his recent usage. He's going to be a 2025 draft-and-hold target for me as things stand.

Chief Eth: Roderick Arias (NYY) has improved in the month of June after struggling opening the season at Single-A. Is he finally adjusting to the step up in competition or is this more of a hot streak?

He's got a 40 percent strikeout rate in June, so I'm not sure I see what you're seeing. Arias missed time early in his career with injuries, so it's fine that he's older for Single-A (turns 20 in September) relative to the typical high-pedigree international position player at that level, but he needed to handle the level. This isn't an Elijah Green (WAS) situation, but the odds are against Arias hitting enough to be the type of fantasy asset I thought he could be coming into the year.

Camposite: Who do you like best for late-season SP help: Yu Darvish, Jacob deGrom, Merrill Kelly or Robbie Ray? Any of them worth a buy in a dynasty?

Ray is my favorite since I think he'll beat the others back by a significant amount of time. DeGrom and Jeffrey Springs, who you didn't mention, have the most upside of the returning injured pitchers, and Springs could be back before most of these guys, so he's a strong candidate. Luis Garcia (HOU), Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Mahle are also strong adds once they're nearing a return.

Ethan: What are the chances the A's try to return Mason Miller to a SP after this season?

I'd recommend checking out my podcast with Melissa Lockard from a few weeks ago — Miller is the first player we discuss. 

My guess is that either the A's or a team that trades for Miller will be too tempted to not try him again as an SP, but the big key here is that he has to make it through the season healthy first. We're just getting to the halfway point, and if Miller were to get hurt again this year, the second half seems like the time it would happen. 

Yarika Rose: It seems like Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is limiting his walks the last three starts. Does that translate to an MLB opportunity this summer?

He had two walks and hit three batters while striking out just one in his June 12 start, but he's definitely done a good job with the walks in three of his last four starts. If his last couple starts turn into a real trend over the next few weeks, we could see him up as a SP in the second half. I said before the season that I expected him to come up in the second half as a reliever before competing for a rotation spot in 2025, and that's still the most likely outcome.

K Freeman: How will the injuries to Owen Murphy (ATL), Jonny Farmelo (SEA), Luis Perales (BOS) and Jose Corniell (TEX) impact their rankings? Are these guys we should be dropping or stashing when they are dropped by others?

Murphy, Perales and Corniell will be notable fallers. All three, while different, are excellent young pitching prospects when healthy, but given the timing of their elbow surgeries, they won't be able to do anything to improve their stock until late-2025 at the earliest. Tommy John surgery doesn't have a 100 percent success rate, and even if they come back for the start of 2026 fully healthy, their innings will be managed carefully, and it's not like pitcher injuries get turned off at that point — look at Cade Horton (CHC). They probably won't fall out of the top 250, and if you're in a deep dynasty league you expect to exist for a long time, there's no reason to move off them.

Farmelo will probably settle in the 100-150 range for the rest of the summer. He should be ready to go around the start of next season, and I expect him to come back stronger than ever, as all he'll be able to do is rehab. He should get assigned to High-A for his age-20 season.

Danny J: Some NYC infielders getting hype. What kind of upside do you see from Jared Serna (NYY) and Nolan McLean (NYM)?

I don't consider McLean an infielder long term — I've got him ranked highly under the expectation he'll be a high-strikeout starting pitcher when it's all said and done, and ideally he'd scrap the hitting part of his game sooner than later.

As for Serna, I think he could be an Alex Bregman type of fantasy producer (ceiling comp) at second base. He has a 34.7 Hard%, 12.9 Soft% and 78.9 Contact%, which are all strong marks. He can't really do anything else to improve his stock at High-A — we need to see how the bat plays against age-appropriate competition at Double-A.

Zwibi: Any hope for Jordan Walker?

Yes. I wouldn't say I'm bullish on Walker, but he's a year younger than Andy Pages (LAD), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), Brooks Lee (MIN) and Tyler Black (MIL). He's three years younger than Heston Kjerstad (BAL) and Joey Loperfido (HOU). 

The right field experiment needs to end, full stop. Yet, he's only played right field and designated hitter while at Triple-A this year. I'd start to get interested again if he got dealt somewhere he could be an everyday first baseman or if the Cardinals announced they were going with him as their long-term designated hitter. 

Eddy Almaguer: Whisper sweet nothings to me about Jesus Made from MIL in the DSL.

He's the perfect age (just turned 17) for the Dominican Summer League. He's got pedigree (top-50 signing bonus from the 2024 J-15 signing period), and now he's got in-game production. Made is striking out and walking 15 percent of the time while getting to significant power (.291 ISO) as a switch hitter. Ben Badler had him pegged as a tick above-average as a runner, but with lean, athletic 16- and 17-year-olds, the speed is often increasing, so he could be a plus runner at this point. The only slight negatives I can find are the extreme pull rate (60.9%) and the infield-flyball rate (28.6%), but I give a full stamp of approval for stashing Made, if DSL stashes are your cup of tea. 

Nick Edgar: Thoughts on Robby Snelling (SD) and if he will turn it around?

It's just been really uneven. He got torched in Amarillo in his most recent start, which is by far the most hitter-friendly park in all of Double-A. He had quality starts in four of his prior six starts, but the two non-quality starts he got shelled in. 

Snelling is not hurt (to our knowledge) and is the youngest qualified pitcher at Double-A, so this is a rare case where I'd recommend being patient in dynasty leagues with a struggling pitching prospect. Of course, if you're in a shallower league where top breakout prospects are available (dropping Snelling for Jhonkensy Noel, for instance, would be an easy call), then you can move on, but for the most part I think he's a hold or even a buy low in deeper leagues.

Big Doink: Is it over for Joey Wiemer (MIL)? Seems like he's blocked and not performing. Maybe a change of scenery candidate?

It's probably over for Wiemer in Milwaukee. He's definitely a change of scenery candidate, although I'm not sure if that will come via a traditional trade or after Milwaukee eventually designates him for assignment. Wiemer turns 26 this offseason, so there's no real excuse for him to not be at least a league-average hitter in the International League, and he's been 26 percent worse than league average (74 wRC+).

Poogy: Why aren't the Mariners promoting Lazaro Montes (to High-A)? How high up these prospect rankings can he climb?

Thankfully, Montes got promoted to High-A shortly after this question was asked. It's very rare for a no-speed prospect to be No. 1 overall, but Montes could certainly climb to top five if he's not showing any hit tool concerns after a decent sample at Double-A. Since he just got to High-A, we'd probably be looking at this offseason or the first half of next season as the point where he could get that high.

Multiple people wanting to know what Xavier Isaac's (TB) injury is...

Adam Sanford of DRays Bay blogged the following: "Xavier Isaac is dealing with an undisclosed issue that has kept him off the field since being removed from a game this past Thursday. Looking at video, Isaac appeared fine during his most recent plate appearance and played two innings more on defense before a defensive replacement took his place between innings."

A random Twitter user replied to one of the Isaac tweets with "wrist", so perhaps it's something wrist-related. Isaac hasn't been placed on the injured list and may have been on the cusp of earning a promotion to Double-A, as he was slashing .397/.480/.730 with four home runs, seven doubles and five steals in his most recent 63 at-bats.

Marcin: Have you heard anything regarding what kind of injury Henry Lalane (NYY) is dealing with?

I couldn't find anything on Lalane. He pitched in the Spring Breakout game in mid-March and hasn't been seen since. It's starting to get a little ominous, especially considering fellow Yankees hard-throwing rookie-level phenom Carlos Lagrange already made it back for the Florida Complex League Yankees from his undisclosed injury. Still, I'd be patient with Lalane for as long as possible. He's got No. 1 pitching prospect upside.