This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are a couple questions of rain for Tuesday night, but they aren't major and you're better off worrying about which pitcher to start. It's not a pretty slate for hurlers with more than half of the over/unders at or near double-digit totals.
PITCHING
There's not a ton to be excited about on this slate in terms of pitching with Lance Lynn ($11,200) and Walker Buehler ($10,200) the only two priced above $9,500. Neither is in an overwhelmingly good spot, but it's hard to ignore what Lynn has done, going at least seven innings in his last five starts. Last outing, he struck out 11 and didn't give up a run to the Astros so there's little reason to doubt him against the Diamondbacks. Buehler has been the opposite, allowing 22 hits and 10 runs in his last two, though both were before the All-Star break and he could return to normal against the Phillies.
Those may be the only pitchers that are locks to hit 20 fantasy points because Jordan Yamamoto ($9,500) is next in line and his upside is capped by a pitching limit. He's looked great in his first five starts, yet hasn't thrown more than 99 pitches and also has 11 walks in his last three. I'd rather focus on a better matchup that provides the same upside for cheaper.
Andrew Cashner ($8,300) is one of those options on his new team. In addition to being a favorite for the first time this season, he allowed three hits to the Blue Jays last start. And while some of Toronto's numbers have been better in the last month, they still have a 24.2 K% against righties. The logical value and possibly chalk play is Zach Plesac ($7,000), who went seven innings against the Tigers less than a month ago. He's not a big strikeout guy, but even if he can hit 20 fantasy points against one of the worst hitting teams in the league, that's worth it. The Tigers own a 25.8 K% and .289 wOBA in the last month against righty arms. Dario Agrazal ($6,600) and Alec Mills ($6,200) are in play because of matchup and sometimes that's enough. Over the last month, the Cards have a 23.3 K% and .289 OBP against righty hurlers, while the Reds are at 24.2 and .305, respectively.
This isn't my favorite pitching slate, but if you want another option, this is the last time I'd take a chance on Austin Voth ($7,200). He's done little in recent starts against the Royals and Tigers, yet has another opportunity to shine against the Orioles with their 25.3 K% against righty hurlers.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
Given the pitching, there are multiple places to look in terms of bats with the game in Coors being the first option with an opening over/under of 14 (jumped to 14.5 as of Tuesday morning). Peter Lambert has given up six homers in his last two starts and has allowed a .368 OBP to lefty bats, while Drew Pomeranz has allowed a .402 OBP to righties. The problem with the over/under is that you have to pay a lot for these bats with Charlie Blackmon ($5,900) a bit high in a lefty-lefty matchup (he's also 1-for-8 in career against Pomeranz). Trevor Story ($5,400) and Nolan Arenado ($5,100) are at least more reasonable, while Brandon Belt ($4,800) and Mike Yastrzemski ($4,400) fit the bill for the Giants, albeit at large amounts.
The White Sox are in a similar boat and I'm not recommending them as a stack because of price. I'd still grab at least one lefty against Glenn Sparkman, who struggles against them with a 3.00 HR/9 and .381 wOBA allowed. That means spending on Yoan Moncada ($5,000) or looking further down the lineup at Jon Jay ($3,100) and Yolmer Sanchez ($2,800). It's the same case for the Nationals against Asher Wojciechowski, who has allowed a .416 wOBA to lefties in his short career. The Nationals provide a bit more power than the White Sox with Juan Soto ($5,300), but Matt Adams ($4,300) and Adam Eaton ($4,000) are slightly better value plays.
The Red Sox could be a chalky stack since they already scored three against Jacob Waguespack a couple weeks ago and should have more success the second time around, especially at home. If you want to use stats from that last meeting, Christian Vazquez homered off him. I'd still prefer a run of lefties that includes Andrew Benintendi ($4,300) and Brock Holt ($3,700), though Rafael Devers ($5,500) has roasted righty hurlers for a .421 ISO in his last 64 plate appearances.
It's also reasonable to go against Dylan Cease, who has been mediocre in Triple-A (4.27 xFIP) and struggled in his debut against the Tigers (5 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB). The Royals won't be a popular route, but lefties like Adalberto Mondesi ($4,600) and Alex Gordon ($4,000) could be useful.
STACKS
Indians vs. Ryan Carpenter (Tigers)
(SS Francisco Lindor - $5,000), (1B Carlos Santana - $5,000), (OF Jordan Luplow - $4,000)
The Indians will be chalk all around due to Carpenter's ugly numbers. He's allowing an OBP above .370 to both sides of the plate, though slightly more power to lefties in fewer at-bats. This stack has Cleveland's three leaders in OBP against southpaws, averaging around .400 since the beginning of June. Luplow is a must with a .465 OBP and .212 ISO in his last 43 PA against lefties. You could also save money on Jake Bauers ($3,700) and Bobby Bradley ($3,600) because there's a good chance everyone has success against Carpenter.
Pirates vs. Jack Flaherty (Cardinals)
(OF Bryan Reynolds - $4,300), (2B Adam Frazier - $4,100), (OF Melky Cabrera - $3,700)
Flaherty has better numbers at home, but he also gave up nine hits and seven runs in his last home start. The Pirates have been one of the best teams against righty arms in the last month with a minimal 16.6 K% and solid .219 ISO. This stack is built on lefties based on Flaherty's 2.25 HR/9 allowed to them. All three in the stack have OBPs near .400 against righties in the last month, though Cabrera has shown the most power. Josh Bell ($5,200) would be the power play in this group, but his price is a bit extreme.
Twins vs. Steven Matz (Mets)
(OF Nelson Cruz - $4,600), (C Mitch Garver - $4,900), (3B/OF Marwin Gonzalez - $3,500)
I had the Mariners in this spot, but couldn't pass up an opportunity to stack against Matz, who had his start moved up. Matz doesn't have good numbers against either side of the plate, though a 2.09 HR/9 allowed to righties could be trouble. The Twins also have a .211 ISO against southpaws at home since the beginning of June. You could go with the usual Twins lefty stack, but I'll stick with righties. Garver and Cruz have been a tough duo to get past in the lineup, both with OBPs higher than .420 and ISOs above .400 against lefty arms since the beginning of June. If you have more money, Miguel Sano ($4,400) is a slightly better play than Gonzalez.
