This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a full slate Tuesday night with mostly clear skies outside of Minnesota. Unfortunately, that doesn't help in deciding pitchers because it's a mess of guys without much to differentiate themselves at the top.
PITCHING
There are six pitchers in the same range (within $900 of each other) and none of them can be considered a lock for production. Chris Paddack ($10,600) is most expensive, yet he's given up multiple homers in three of his last four starts. His selling point is that the Giants have the worst wOBA (.280) against righties in the last month to go with a 24.0 K%. Luis Castillo ($10,400) has 11 walks in his last three starts and while strikeouts usually keep him fantasy relevant, those could be harder to come by against the Indians. Then again, it's not like anyone else is safer.
Patrick Corbin ($10,300) and Trevor Bauer ($9,900) have decent matchups, though the former has allowed nine runs in his last two outings and the latter is giving up multiple runs every start. I slightly prefer Corbin because the White Sox have a 25.9 K% and .278 wOBA against southpaws since the beginning of May. The Reds are similarly bad against righty arms with a 25.3 K% in the last month. James Paxton ($10,100) is also worth a shot as the Mets have a 25.5 K% against lefties since May 1.
Jakob Junis ($7,200) could be the most popular value arm since he faces the Tigers. He gives up a lot of runs, but he racked up enough Ks to reach around 20 fantasy points in recent outings against the Rangers and Yankees. The Tigers are at the bottom of the charts with a 26.1 K% and .283 wOBA in the last month against righty hurlers. I'd consider Spencer Turnbull ($8,600) if he was the same price, but he's oddly a lot more expensive as an underdog. Chris Archer ($8,100) has found some form in recent starts, though it's hard to spend money on him when his upside is only around 20-25 points. John Means ($7,100) has a better matchup and has shown similar upside with at least 17 fantasy points in four of his last six starts.
Martin Perez ($6,700) hasn't started at home in almost a month and could get some extra confidence in front of his crowd, especially against a Mariners team who have a 26.5 K% against lefty arms in the last month. It's usually not a good strategy to back a pitcher at Coors Field, but Peter Lambert ($5,600) could be worth it because of price and he carved up the Cubs for nine Ks in his MLB debut last week. Even if he only reaches five or six strikeouts, he could still make value.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
There are a few games that stand out with over/unders of at least 10 runs. Chicago-Colorado takes the cake, but I'm not sold on it hitting the over. The Cubs should do better against Lambert the second time around, but I'm not sure it's worth it to spend on the likes of Anthony Rizzo ($5,600), Kris Bryant ($5,400) or Kyle Schwarber ($5,200), their top trio against righties. Jose Quintana has a poor .385 wOBA allowed to righties on the road, which is where Trevor Story ($5,800) and Nolan Arenado ($5,600) come into play. Ian Desmond ($4,100) is the best value play and you could gamble on whoever gets the start behind plate.
Pittsburgh-Atlanta has the next highest over/under at 10 even though it finished 6-1 when these pitchers met last week. Archer had success last outing, but he's still giving up at least one homer per start, while Mike Foltynewicz has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last six. Gregory Polanco ($4,200) and Colin Moran ($4,100) went deep against Foltynewicz last week, but I'd be comfortable backing any lefty with Corey Dickerson ($3,700) and Adam Frazier ($3,700) a tad cheaper. Archer has allowed a .376 OBP to righties so I'd still consider some Atlanta guys, especially Josh Donaldson ($3,700) or Tyler Flowers ($3,400) for value.
The Yankees should get some love against Zach Wheeler with hopes of hitting a home run or two. Wheeler is racking up Ks, but has given up seven homers in his last four starts. That puts Didi Gregorius ($3,900) on the radar, but also Aaron Hicks ($4,100) at a decent rate.
Jake Arrieta and Trent Thornton have both been ripped by lefties with a .394 and .352 wOBA allowed, respectively. Arizona's guys are pricier with Eduardo Escobar ($4,900) and David Peralta ($4,600), while you can save a little more on Baltimore. Jonathan Villar ($4,300) is still somewhat in the high end with recently called up Anthony Santander ($3,800) or Chance Cisco ($3,600) decent value.
Felix Pena (8 HA, 7 ER) and Tyler Beede (5 HA, 5 ER) are coming off two of the worst performances of any pitcher on the slate, so I'd throw the Dodgers and Padres into the mix. Pena has a 4.85 xFIP against lefty bats and Beede has been bad against everyone in his few appearances.
STACKS
Twins vs. Mike Leake (Mariners)
(OF Max Kepler - $4,800), (SS Jorge Polanco - $4,900), (OF Nelson Cruz - $4,700)
There's potential to get burned since Leake just cruised through the Astros lineup, albeit a beaten up one. It's still hard to ignore his .338 wOBA and nine homers allowed to both sides of the plate. The Twins also lead the league with a .273 ISO and .366 wOBA against righty hurlers over the last month. This stack is expensive, but it's worth it. Kepler and Polanco have OBPs near .400 in the last month against righty pitchers, while Cruz is on a homer streak. Marwin Gonzalez ($3,700) is a good pivot to save money, as he still provides decent power.
Nationals vs. Manny Banuelos (White Sox)
(2B Brian Dozier - $4,000), (C Yan Gomes - $3,000), (OF Victor Robles - $4,100)
This isn't a great spot for Banuelos and his 7.36 ERA as the Nationals have a solid .344 wOBA against southpaws in the last month. You could spend on the big names like Anthony Rendon ($5,500) or Juan Soto ($5,000), but this stack is based on value and somewhat against the grain. Dozier and Robles have similar OBP (above .400 in last month) and ISO numbers to the more expensive guys, while Gomes can be used to save more money if he starts.
Pirates vs. Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)
(1B Josh Bell - $5,000), (3B Colin Moran - $4,100), (OF Gregory Polanco - $4,200)
Foltynewicz has a home run problem and it's worth it to take a shot against him and hope the Pirates have more success. He's allowed 15 homers in eight starts and it's been equal against both sides of the plate with at least a 3.00 HR/9 allowed to each. This stack leads Pittsburgh in terms of ISO against righties in the last month with Bell at .309 in his last 107 PA. It's also not too expensive with Moran and Polanco at decent rates for value.
