AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's upside on an A-E scale, prioritizing skills and talent above role and playing time outlook. Gunnar Henderson would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Taj BradleyTBSPA123
Jonathan CannonCHISPDNoNo1
Mike ClevingerCHISPCNo13
Ben LivelyCLESPD112
Michael LorenzenTEXSPC2511
Alec MarshKCSPC149
Nick NastriniCHISPCNo25
Chris PaddackMINSPC1

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's upside on an A-E scale, prioritizing skills and talent above role and playing time outlook. Gunnar Henderson would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Taj BradleyTBSPA123
Jonathan CannonCHISPDNoNo1
Mike ClevingerCHISPCNo13
Ben LivelyCLESPD112
Michael LorenzenTEXSPC2511
Alec MarshKCSPC149
Nick NastriniCHISPCNo25
Chris PaddackMINSPC123
Paul BlackburnOAKSPC111
JP SearsOAKSPC111
Michael WachaKCSPC111
Jason AdamTBRPD12Rostered
Shawn ArmstrongTBRPENoNo1
Garrett CleavingerTBRPENoNo1
Colin PocheTBRPENo13
Danny JansenTORCC137
Ben RortvedtTBCDNoNo3
Connor WongBOSCCNo2Rostered
Miguel SanoLA1BCNo14
Michael MasseyKC2BC137
Zach McKinstryDET2BDNoNo1
Tyler FreemanCLE3BC137
Buddy KennedyDET3BDNoNo1
Jose MirandaMIN3BB137
Tyler NevinOAK3BCNo14
Abraham ToroOAK3BCNo25
Gabriel AriasCLESSCNo14
Orelvis MartinezTORSSBNo12
Amed RosarioTBSSC37Rostered
Wilyer AbreuBOSOFCNo25
Jonatan ClaseSEAOFBNoNo1
Estevan FlorialCLEOFCNoNo2
Trevor LarnachMINOFC137
Richie PalaciosTBOFCNoNo3
Tommy PhamCHIOFCNoNo2
Rob RefsnyderBOSOFDNoNo1
Esteury RuizOAKOFC25Rostered

Starting Pitcher

Taj Bradley, Rays: The 23-year-old right-hander is inching closer to his 2024 debut after throwing 50 pitches in a sim game Wednesday, and while he's still about 2-3 weeks away, Bradley's upside makes him stashable now. Anticipate his return coming on the long end of that estimate – he suffered a pectoral strain in mid-March, so while it wasn't an arm injury directly, it's the kind of thing that could impact his mechanics if he's not 100 percent. Bradley's 28.0 percent strikeout rate over 104.2 innings as a rookie last year is his biggest selling point, and it would only take a slight improvement in his command within the zone for him to become a real fantasy asset. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $3

Jonathan Cannon, White Sox: A third-round pick in 2022, Cannon raced through the Chicago system like he was shot out of a... oh, what's the word. You know, the old-timey artillery thing. Anyway, the 23-year-old righty doesn't have a booming fastball or swing-and-miss stuff but instead relies on weak contact and groundballs to get his outs. He gave the White Sox five solid innings against the Royals in his big-league debut Wednesday, and the team will give him a longer look. Cannon probably heads back to Triple-A when Mike Clevinger joins the 26-man roster, but Nick Nastrini's unproven and Michael Soroka, sadly, looks a long, long way from making a heartwarming comeback, so there should be plenty of opportunities ahead for more starts in the majors. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Mike Clevinger, White Sox: Speaking of Clevinger, he hasn't yet pitched for a minor-league affiliate, instead getting work in at Chicago's spring training complex, but he still appears to be on track to make his season debut in early May. The 33-year-old right-hander is a shell of his peak Cleveland self, but he did give the White Sox respectable ratios over 24 starts in 2023 despite a mediocre 20.0 percent strikeout rate. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $3

Ben Lively, Guardians: Lively made his season debut Wednesday and looked... ack, what's the word. Energetic? Frisky? Peppy? Anyway, it took a Tanner Houck shutout to beat him, as the 32-year-old righty fanned seven and walked only one over five strong innings. Lively's probably just keeping a rotation spot warm for Gavin Williams, but that still lines him up for a two-step this week, albeit a tough one – a home rematch with the BoSox, followed by a road trip to Atlanta. Lively's track record doesn't suggest he has a lot of upside, but he could have some short-term value. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $2

Michael Lorenzen, Rangers: The 32-year-old right-hander got the win in his season debut Monday, blanking the Tigers over five innings despite a 4:5 K:BB. Lorenzen has emerged as a reliable, if low-upside, fantasy arm since getting converted from a relief role by the Angels in 2022, and having the Texas offense at his back can't hurt his prospects for collecting wins. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $11

Alec Marsh, Royals: Marsh kept just missing the cut on this column over the first few weeks, but after blanking the O's over 5.2 innings Friday, I'll give in and write him up. I apologize in advance for the jinx. Kansas City's surprisingly respectable start on offense (12th in wOBA) has helped the 25-year-old righty go 3-0 so far, and he appears to have taken a big step forward with his control and command, posting a 16:5 K:BB through 22.1 innings to support his 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's shown more strikeout upside in the past, although he doesn't have elite stuff, and his small-sample 17.8 percent K rate is a big drop from the 24.9 percent mark he delivered last year over 74.1 innings. If he can keep limiting the free passes while adding more whiffs, the Royals might have something special on their hands, but Marsh is still probably a mid-rotation guy at his peak, at best. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team AL: $9

Nick Nastrini, White Sox: Nastrini was picked up from the Dodgers last season in the Lance Lynn trade as his control issues left him well behind LA's other pitching prospects. The 24-year-old righty made his big-league debut Monday and looked pretty good though, posting a 5:2 K:BB over five solid innings. If he can keep the walks in check, he's got the arsenal to be an effective big-league starter, flashing four pitches with a mid-90s fastball. Imagine a prototypical Seattle pitching prospect with double the walk rate, and that's Nastrini – and that's good enough to take a regular turn in the White Sox rotation. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Chris Paddack, Twins: Paddack has had a brutal start to the season. There's no sugar-coating 13 earned runs in 14 innings. He's got a golden opportunity to turn things around this week though, as he lines up for a two-start week that sees him host the White Sox ahead of a road outing against the Halos. The 28-year-old is a gamble, as he hasn't produced useful fantasy numbers since about 2019, but if injuries have already left you in a position where you need to gamble with your staff, there's sneaky upside here. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $3

Other two-start options, Mon-Sun (12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $1)

Paul Blackburn, Athletics (at NYY, at BAL)
JP Sears, Athletics (at NYY, at BAL)
Michael Wacha, Royals (vs. TOR, at DET)

Relief Pitcher

Jason Adam / Shawn Armstrong / Garrett Cleavinger / Colin Poche, Rays: Something definitely seems off with Pete Fairbanks, and while you can give him a mulligan on a Coors Field appearance, he's got a 5.14 ERA and 10:5 K:BB in seven innings even if you remove that one from his line. Now he's dealing with vague stomach issues, which could just be a bug, or could be something a little more serious. (Insert "he's giving his fantasy GMs ulcers" joke here.) Tampa Bay is comfortable shifting to a closing committee of necessary, so throwing a dart at one of the team's other relievers and trying to hit a half-dozen saves makes sense in deeper formats. Adam is the most natural replacement as the regular ninth-inning guy, but his 20.6 percent strikeout rate is a far cry from his usual dominance, as he'd posted a rate north of 31 percent each of the last two seasons. Poche has two saves already and is the top lefty option, while Armstrong and Cleavinger have nabbed one each. The Rays' bullpen has been a mess in general so far, so there could be a lot of changes coming, and I wouldn't get too attached to any of these guys – even Adam or Fairbanks. Tampa's 2024 saves leader may not even be on the 26-man roster right now. If you want a deep-league saves stash, Manuel Rodriguez has been excellent so far at Triple-A Durham (12:2 K:BB in 7.1 innings with a 1.23 ERA) and has the kind of heat teams look for in a high-leverage arm. Adam – 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: Rostered / Poche – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $3 / Armstrong and Cleavinger – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Catcher

Danny Jansen, Blue Jays: After missing the first few weeks with a wrist fracture, Jansen returned to action Tuesday and moved right into his usual timeshare with Alejandro Kirk. Jansen banged out two doubles Thursday in his second start, so it seems fair to assume his wrist is 100 percent. The 29-year-old offers power while being a batting average and injury risk, but when he's available, he can contribute. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Ben Rortvedt, Rays: Rene Pinto hit two homers last Sunday but has generally struggled at the plate, so the door is open for Rortvedt to carve out extra playing time. The 26-year-old is batting .367 (11-for-30) so far, but he's thrown out just two of 11 basestealers so far. (Then again, thieves are 16-for-17 against Pinto, so that's actually an improvement.) Rortvedt eventually emerging on the strong side of a platoon wouldn't be that shocking. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Connor Wong, Red Sox: Wong now holds the hot hand at catcher for Boston, racking up two homers and four multi-hit performances in his last five games to boost his slash line to .349/.341/.581. That OBP isn't a typo, by the way – he has a 0:12 BB:K in 44 plate appearances. Wong remains the slightly better rest-of-season play over Reese McGuire, but the duo's timeshare limits both their upsides. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: Rostered

First Base

Miguel Sano, Angels: I was resigned to writing up Anthony Rendon this week, even though he is firmly in my personal DO NOT WANT bucket, but he helpfully spared me from doing it by injuring his hamstring. Sano had already worked his way into a fairly regular role, but more action at the hot corner in addition to his duties at DH and on the short side of a first-base platoon can only help his fantasy stock. The 30-year-old slugged 30 homers as recently as 2021, and he's gone 8-for-18 (.444) over his last five starts. Wilder things have happened than a Sano comeback, and it still shouldn't cost you must to find out if he can pull it off. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Second Base

Michael Massey, Royals: Back trouble cost Massey the beginning of the campaign, but the 26-year-old returned to the lineup Friday and has started both the Royals' games so far this weekend, going 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI in his season debut. His minor-league numbers suggest upside he hasn't gotten to yet in the majors – he's got a career .335/.396/.611 slash line in 187 plate appearances at Triple-A – and Adam Frazier really shouldn't be much of an obstacle to a full-time role at second base. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Zach McKinstry, Tigers: Gio Urshela's hamstring injury opens a path for McKinstry to take on a strong-side platoon role at third base, although Matt Vierling and Buddy Kennedy could be options there as well. McKinstry hasn't exactly done much so far to prove he deserves more work, batting .200 (7-for-35) with zero extra-base hits and a 4:13 BB:K. His multi-position eligibility does give him some appeal as a deep-league bench option when he's getting enough playing time, though. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Third Base

Tyler Freeman, Guardians: Cleveland used to have a knack for developing athletic middle infielders whose power didn't fully emerge until they got the majors. Francisco Lindor never hit more than 11 homers in a minor-league season, for instance, while Jose Ramirez's best total in the minors was only five. Their current crop of middle-infield prospects hasn't lived up to that lineage, but Freeman might be coming around. The 24-year-old hasn't hit more than six homers in any season across all levels, but he's gone yard twice in the last week, and his launch angle, hard-hit rate and barrel rate are all well above last year's numbers, even if the sample sizes are small. He is striking out a lot for a guy whose hit tool was supposed to be his calling card (3:14 BB:K in 17 games), so his new approach at the plate is still a work in progress, but Freeman at least seems well ahead of Brayan Rocchio in terms of becoming an asset at the plate. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Buddy Kennedy, Tigers: The former Arizona semi-prospect made his Detroit debut this week, and with Urshela on the shelf and Vierling still needed at least part of the time in the outfield, there could be at-bats available at third base for Kennedy. The best he can probably hope for is a short-side platoon role alongside Zach McKinstry, but Kennedy was having a solid season for Triple-A Toledo before his promotion, slashing .288/.354/.508 with seven doubles and two homers in 15 games. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Jose Miranda, Twins: Minnesota didn't want to give Miranda work at the hot corner this year, but with their entire left side of the infield on IL right now, the team hasn't had a lot of choice. The 25-year-old has started six of the last nine games and gone 7-for-23 (.304) with a double, a homer and a strong 1:3 BB:K, and if he keeps hitting while Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are on the shelf, Miranda could keep a significant role when they're back as part of the 1B/DH mix. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Tyler Nevin, Athletics: The 26-year-old has been getting a look as Lawrence Butler's platoon partner in right field while also being part of the DH rotation, and Nevin has responded by going 11-for-31(.355) over the last 10 games, albeit with a double as his only XBH. Oakland has at-bats available with J.D. Davis and Miguel Andujar hurt and Darell Hernaiz somewhat inexplicably booted back to Triple-A, and this is probably Nevin's last chance to prove to a big-league team he can be an asset. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Abraham Toro, Athletics: Davis' injury has given Toro a chance to prove himself too, and he's not only been getting regular work this week at third base, he's been hitting leadoff against right-handed pitching too. Over his last 12 games, he's slashing .292/.333/.438 with a homer, a steal, six runs and six RBI, which is pretty spectacular production considering the quality of the lineup around him. The 27-year-old's minor-league numbers indicate that's a pace he's capable of maintaining, and while Davis could be back soon, that won't necessary bump Toro to the bench, only change up where he starts. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Shortstop

Gabriel Arias, Guardians: Arias is showing some of the same signs of growth as a hitter that Freeman is. He's started seven of the last eight games in a super-utility role, seeing action at second base, third base, shortstop and center field, and the 24-year-old has gone 10-for-24 (.417) over that stretch with two doubles, a triple and a homer, along with a less exciting 1:9 BB:K. Arias' launch angle in 2024 has jumped to 15.6 degrees from 3.7 degrees last year, and while his barrel rate and max EV have taken small steps back, his hard-hit rate is still riding at 40 percent. Arias did show power in the minors, and his elevated strikeout rate arguably gives him a lower floor than Freeman, but he's getting playing time and doing something with it. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Orelvis Martinez, Blue Jays: If you're looking for an infield prospect stash and Junior Caminero (written up last week) is already gone, Martinez makes sense as the next man up. If you're wondering why, this should be reason enough, but the 22-year-old has been offering more than just massive raw power of late. Martinez is slashing .328/.384/.657 through 17 games at Triple-A Buffalo, and his 21.9 percent strikeout rate is a big improvement on last year's 27.0 percent mark at the same level. The Jays have been using him almost exclusively at second base at Buffalo, and while his defense there needs some work, the big-league club has had a revolving door at the keystone with none of their competency of utility infielders (that's the official collective noun for utility players) really running away with the starting job. As soon as the Jays decide they can live with Martinez's glove, he should be in the majors. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $2

Amed Rosario, Rays: With the Brothers (Not Really) Lowe, Brandon and Josh, both on the shelf, Rosario has emerged as an everyday player between second base and right field and reeled off a 10-game hitting streak in which he's batting .395 (17-for-43) with two homers, two steals, five runs and seven RBI. Not bad for a guy who was just scrambling to win a short-side platoon role in camp. Rosario does have pedigree as a prospect, and it's entirely possible the Rays' pixie dust has unlocked his true potential, but it's just as possible he cools down and goes back to the bench once everyone's healthy. Tampa's at least open to the possibility of the former though, as Josh Lowe began his rehab stint Friday by playing center field and not right field. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: Rostered

Outfield

Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox: With Tyler O'Neill hurt (shocking, I know) and Ceddanne Rafaela shifted to the infield to cover all the injuries there, Abreu has become a full-time player between the outfield corners and responded by batting .292 (7-for-24) over the last eight games with three doubles, a homer, four steals, four RBI and seven runs. The 24-year-old has also worked his way up to the two-hole in the batting order, although that's largely due to Rafael Devers and Triston Casas also being banged up. Yep, the training staff has been very busy of late in Boston. Once the dominoes begin to fall the other way (which means they stand back up, I guess? I didn't really think that metaphor through) and the team gets healthier, Abreu's role should shrink, but for now he's providing solid value. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Jonatan Clase, Mariners: Called up to replace Dominic Canzone in left field, Clase hasn't looked completely overmatched in his big-league debut, going 4-for-16 with a 1:5 BB:K and a steal. The 21-year-old could be a future leadoff hitter if his minor-league plate discipline holds up and he makes enough hard contact, but for now he's hitting at the bottom of the order for a Mariners squad that sits a disappointing 24th in wOBA. Clase's a better dynasty or keeper stash than a short-term play. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Estevan Florial, Guardians: Florial was a preseason sleeper who likely got kicked to the curb after his awful start to the season, but the 26-year-old might be turning things around. He's seen significant action in six of the last seven games and gone 6-for-20 (.300) with two homers. Florial's 2:7 BB:K over that stretch still isn't great, and he'll probably always be a batting average risk, but he racked up 28 homers and 25 steals in only 101 games at Triple-A in 2023, so the fantasy potential is there. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Trevor Larnach, Twins: Called up Tuesday to replace the struggling Matt Wallner, Larnach has started four straight games between the outfield corners and gone 4-for-12 with a homer. The 27-year-old has never put things together in the majors, largely due to injuries, but he posted strong numbers in half a season for Triple-A St. Paul last season and the Twins haven't given up on him yet. Even once Max Kepler is back from the IL, Larnach could see regular playing time between left field and DH if he's making an impact with his bat. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Richie Palacios, Rays: Palacios is taking full advantage of his strong-side platoon role in right field, delivering four multi-hit performances in his last six starts while batting .400 (10-for-25) over that stretch with two doubles, a homer, two RBI and seven runs. If Josh Lowe does get installed as the center fielder when he returns, Palacios figures to benefit, but his advanced metrics suggest he could just be enjoying a run of good luck – his average EV (56th percentile), barrel rate (44th) and hard-hit rate (25th) are nothing special. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Tommy Pham, White Sox: Signed to a minor-league deal Monday, the White Sox only have until April 25th to add him to the 26-man roster or he can become a free agent again, so the odds are good Pham is in a Chicago uniform this week. The 36-year-old offers more fantasy appeal than the other veteran outfielders the ChiSox have been collecting, like Robbie Grossman and Kevin Pillar, but Pham would be getting little help from the roster around him even if he does still possess 15-15 or even 20-20 potential. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Rob Refsnyder, Red Sox: Activated off the IL on Thursday, Refsnyder has gotten off to a quick start by going 3-for-10 with two doubles and a homer, but in the long run the 33-year-old is probably headed for the short side of a platoon. He could have some immediate value while Boston's roster is gutted by injuries, but the playing-time squeeze is coming. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Esteury Ruiz, Athletics: If he got dropped when he was demoted, and you need steals, you kind of have to make a play for Ruiz. He's gotten the start in center field and hit leadoff in two games against southpaws, and with JJ Bleday quickly fading, Ruiz could work his way into a bigger role if he can get going at the plate. Two homers and a steal in 10 plate appearances since his return is encouraging, at least. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: Rostered

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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