This article is part of our On Target series.
Something that came up in the comments last week was whether it's a good idea to ever bench a player due for a huge bump in targets but in a tough individual matchup. In general, that is really not a smart idea. Courtland Sutton was not in last week's column because, Richard Sherman or not, if you had him on your roster it was likely a good idea to start him. Keep that in mind when considering your start/sits this week – volume is more important than any other projection category.
This matchup is an excellent example of why benching a player due to a bad WR/CB matchup is likely not an optimal move. Hill is banged up, but so are the rest of the Chiefs. They are likely to be without Sammy Watkins and Spencer Ware this week against the Chargers, and while Hill will be in shadow coverage against Hayward (who has allowed only 0.23 fantasy points per route run against this year), the expected volume for Hill is so great that he is a must play.
Kenny Golladay vs. Tre'Davious White
There are several reasons to think about benching Golladay this week (unlike Hill). The Lions are playing at a snail's pace since the team traded Golden Tate, and while Golladay has a 51 percent share of the team's Air Yards in their last four games, Golladay has put up two absolute stinkers. White has allowed only 0.21 fantasy points per
Something that came up in the comments last week was whether it's a good idea to ever bench a player due for a huge bump in targets but in a tough individual matchup. In general, that is really not a smart idea. Courtland Sutton was not in last week's column because, Richard Sherman or not, if you had him on your roster it was likely a good idea to start him. Keep that in mind when considering your start/sits this week – volume is more important than any other projection category.
This matchup is an excellent example of why benching a player due to a bad WR/CB matchup is likely not an optimal move. Hill is banged up, but so are the rest of the Chiefs. They are likely to be without Sammy Watkins and Spencer Ware this week against the Chargers, and while Hill will be in shadow coverage against Hayward (who has allowed only 0.23 fantasy points per route run against this year), the expected volume for Hill is so great that he is a must play.
Kenny Golladay vs. Tre'Davious White
There are several reasons to think about benching Golladay this week (unlike Hill). The Lions are playing at a snail's pace since the team traded Golden Tate, and while Golladay has a 51 percent share of the team's Air Yards in their last four games, Golladay has put up two absolute stinkers. White has allowed only 0.21 fantasy points per route run against and is one of the few truly good shadow corners in the NFL. If you have a guy like Josh Gordon or maybe even Michael Gallup in a way better game environment, I would consider starting them over Golladay this week.
Julio Jones vs. Patrick Peterson
Jones is an example of a player you should NEVER sit. He is going to finish the year with the most Air Yards of any player in the NFL and has finally added touchdowns to his fantasy arsenal. While Peterson is a tremendously good shadow corner (0.19 fantasy points per route run against this season), it is just unreasonable to think that he can affect Jones' median projection enough to make him a sit.
Allen Robinson vs. Jaire Alexander
I expected the Packers' rookie corners to perform well this year and, overall, I still think the GB secondary is in a good place with Alexander, Bashaud Breeland and Josh Jackson. Nonetheless, Robinson is positioned to succeed this week. The Bears are likely to be in a more pass-heavy game script than last week against the Rams, and Alexander has actually conceded a bottom-10 0.44 fantasy points per route run against.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. J.C. Jackson
When the Steelers go three wide, Smith-Schuster shifts to the left side of the field, while in 12 personnel (which they use quite often), he is the primary slot wide receiver. He has a significant edge on both Jackson, who has been targeted on 23 percent of his routes in coverage, and Jason McCourty. Antonio Brown will be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore for most of this game which should leave Smith-Schuster open to continue being the most efficient WR in the NFL.
Tre'Quan Smith vs. Donte Jackson
Most of the defensive attention for the Panthers will be centered on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Pro Football Focus projects James Bradberry to be in shadow coverage on Thomas, which leaves Jackson on the outside to cover Tre'Quan. Jackson has been targeted on 17 percent of his routes in coverage and has allowed 0.38 fantasy points per route run against, which would indicate better numbers are ahead for the tough-to-pin-down Smith.
