Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cowboys vs. Bears

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Published on December 5, 2019

Thursday night's matchup between the Cowboys and Bears is a battle of two similar teams, each coming in with 6-6 records, with both earning wins against the Giants (two for the Cowboys), Lions (two for the Bears) and Redskins, while they've separately beaten the Dolphins, Eagles, Broncos and Vikings. They have under-performed preseason expectations, though the Cowboys miraculously are in first place in the NFC East, so their playoff hopes are still very much alive. The Bears, on the other hand, sit behind the 9-3 Packers and 8-4 Vikings in the NFC North and need some help from other teams if they want to make the postseason. The 43.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook isn't high by any means, though the game is expected to be close, with the Cowboys 3.0-point road favorites.

QUARTERBACKS

Both quarterbacks are coming off big Thanksgiving games, with the Bears' Mitchell Trubisky ($8,800 DK, $15,000 FD) completing 29 of 38 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns while Dak Prescott ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) of the Cowboys picked up plenty of garbage time fantasy points against the Bills, finishing with 355 yards and two touchdowns. It was the third time in his last four games that Prescott has thrown for more than 350 yards, and he's thrown multiple touchdowns in four of the last five. On the other hand, Trubisky's 338 yards represented the first time he's reached even 280 in a game this season, and he's thrown for multiple touchdowns four times this season versus

QUARTERBACKS

Meanwhile, Prescott figures to be popular as the starting quarterback on the favored team, though it's worth acknowledging the Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on DraftKings and FanDuel. They haven't allowed many yards lately, though they allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the past two games, the same number as they allowed in their first 10 combined. Additionally, they allowed only one 300-yard passer, strangely coming in a 31-15 win over Washington when Case Keenum threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns, though he was also picked off three times and lost two of three fumbles.

In terms of player props, Prescott's passing yards are set at 273.5 (-112 on both sides) while Trubisky's is 236.5 (-112 on both sides), while the former is -128 to throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns versus +116 for the latter.

RUNNING BACKS

The Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott ($11,200 DK, $14,500 FD) is the most expensive player on DraftKings and now faces a Bears defense that's allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to running backs on both sites. Fourteenth isn't a position that needs to be feared, but it at least shows that running backs have been more successful than quarterbacks against the Bears this season. Elliott has seen his touches dip lately, as he had at least 20 carries in four straight games before getting 16, 21 and 12 in his last three, respectively. Last week showed he can still make an impact even without many carries, as he rushed 12 times for 77 yards but also caught seven of 10 targets for 66 receiving yards, the receiving work all season-highs. It's possible the Cowboys continue to use him like that, as only three teams in the league have allowed more targets to running backs and only four have allowed more catches, while their 3.64 yards per carry allowed is the fifth-lowest. Elliott continues to get significantly more work than backup Tony Pollard ($2,600 DK, $7,000), who is officially questionable because of an ankle injury that was first disclosed Tuesday, and with fullback Jamize Olawale ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) the only other running back on the roster, Elliott figures to get a ton of work.

On the other hand, the Cowboys sit just one spot below the Bears in terms of most fantasy points allowed to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel, and while they've allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season (tied for eighth-most in the NFL), four came in Week 5 against the Packers. David Montgomery ($7,600 DK, $11,500 FD) continues to lead the backfield and comes in off one of his best games of the season, rushing 16 times for 75 yards and catching both of his targets for 12 receiving yards and a touchdown. The 75 yards were the second-most in a game this season, and while he gets a bulk of the team's carries, he also has had more than 20 twice this season, with the last time coming in Week 8 against the Chargers. He'll get a few targets here and there, though Tarik Cohen ($6,600 DK, $9,000 FD) is the real pass-catching option out of the backfield, but that subsequently comes with fewer rushing attempts.

You could almost treat Cohen more like a wide receiver who gets a few carries, as he's unlikely to get looks in the red-zone, or at least by the goal line, but anywhere between four and six catches is well within the median projection. Captaining either Montgomery or Cohen seems like a strategy more suited for those who like to play more contrarian or have enough lineups to take the risk, though Cohen may be more effective since the Cowboys' defense mimics the Bears in that it's allowed just one fewer running back target (putting them seventh in terms of most allowed in the league) and only five teams have allowed more running back receptions. And if you think the Bears take it to the Cowboys, rostering both running backs isn't a strategy that should be ignored.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Prescott does a pretty good job of spreading his passes around, though Amari Cooper ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD) is the Cowboys' top receiving weapon, leading the team in targets (92), receptions (64), receiving yards (971), air yards (1,185) and receiving touchdowns (seven). He's been very inconsistent lately, with four, 11, three, zero and eight receptions in the five games after the team's bye, respectively, and while the Bears' season-long numbers against wide receivers are solid, they allowed three receiving touchdowns to the position in the past two games. The same can be said about no. 2 wide receiver Michael Gallup ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD), who has at least gotten six targets in every game since the bye, though that only got him to two, four, nine, four and three receptions in those games, respectively. Gallup's slight price decrease on both sites could have people looking his way instead of Cooper, as his 82 catches, 49 receptions, 796 receiving yards and 1,026 air yards are similar, while his 12.5 aDOT is slightly lower than Cooper's 12.9. If anything, rostering both is an option too, though it's almost impossible for that to work out unless Elliott is a bust.

Randall Cobb ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD) is the no. 3 wideout and also a viable option given he's had at least seven targets in four of the past five games, two of which included games with more than 100 yards and a touchdown. Playing Cobb and another Cowboys receiver makes it easier to fade Prescott altogether because catches are more valuable than completed passes, and paying for a combo of Cobb and Gallup, for example, allows spending elsewhere versus those trying to get one of them and Prescott. Then again, that does expose you if it's Cooper who dominates. The one issue with Cobb is that his 9.8 aDOT indicates he doesn't get the longer throws that the other two guys get, an issue that applies even more so to tight end Jason Witten, whose 6.7 aDOT is pretty standard for a touchdown-dependent tight end. Witten had his best game of the season on Thanksgiving, catching six of eight targets for 42 yards and a touchdown, his first score since Week 2, so it's just important to note that if you're expecting a big game from Witten, it absolutely has to include a touchdown because the overall volume is not there (Witten is +370 to score, trailing Elliott at -140, Cooper at +170, Gallup at +270 and Cobb at +290 among Cowboys).

Dallas isn't without deeper options, with Tavon Austin ($1,200 DK, $5,500 FD) always a viable touchdown threat when he actually gets the ball, which doesn't happen often, and we saw Ventell Bryant ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) score last week on his only offensive snap and first target of the season. One offense snap was more than what Devin Smith ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) has gotten since Week 4 and Cedrick Wilson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) since Week 6. Otherwise, you're left with backup tight end Blake Jarwin ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD), who is basically a poor man's Witten when it comes to production in that he's not going to get many targets but at least has some touchdown upside.

Chicago's target tree is much smaller, with Allen Robinson ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD) the most expensive Bear on DraftKings, which is hardly surprising given he leads the team in targets (108), receptions (71), receiving yards (850), air yards (1,185), receiving touchdowns (five), red-zone targets (13) and targets inside the five-yard line (eight). There's no denying that Robinson is one of the best receivers in the league, but his production continues to come up short because of his quarterbacks. Then again, he's been very good of late, catching six of 10 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 and then eight catches on 12 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown in Week 13, with that production likely to make him pretty popular for those who want to target Bears. Meanwhile, no. 2 wide receiver Anthony Miller ($7,000 DK, $10,500 FD) shouldn't be looked over, especially after his nine catches on 13 targets for 140 yards on Thanksgiving, this third straight game with at least nine targets and six catches. Miller doesn't get the deeper throws like Robinson, as their respective 9.8 and 11.0 aDOTs show, but Miller has been a very productive player on DraftKings because of the full point per reception.

With Cohen (74 targets, second-most on the team) and Montgomery (32, fifth) taking up so many looks, the next highest active receiver for the Bears is wideout Javon Wims ($3,200 DK, $5,000 FD), who had five catches on six targets for 56 yards on Thanksgiving, all setting or matching season-highs. He is certainly ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson ($400 DK, $5,500 FD) and is the obvious pay-down Bears option given his increased usage. With the Bears already losing two tight ends to season-ending injuries, you could throw darts at Jesper Horsted ($2,000 DK, $6,000 FD) or J.P. Holtz ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), but the upside is just so limited.

Robinson feels like he could be a sneaky captain/MVP choice with lots of people focusing on Cowboys, though he also could be the highest-owned Bear, which makes Miller the sneakier of the two. He'll need to get significant volume to make that multiplier pay off more than others in the game, but that's not out of the realistic realm of possibilities. The benefit of Miller is that he's cheaper, so his salary multiplier on DraftKings doesn't hurt as much. Or, if you go nuts with Wims as captain, you can pretty much do whatever you want.

KICKERS

With a game that's not expected to be high scoring, the kickers are certainly in play, though Eddy Pineiro ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) has had enough accuracy issues to at least make you think for an extra second or two. Additionally, he's connected on multiple field goals just once in the past five games, so while the floor always feels safe with kickers, he hasn't shown much of one lately.

Brett Maher ($3,800) missed both of his Thanksgiving field-goal attempts, but he at least hit multiple field goals in five of his prior six games. However, he also missed one in three of four. Either way, you're comparing their floors to the upside of similarly priced players who can score touchdowns, so if you believe Wims or Austin are able to make impacts, they certainly offer more potential points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cowboys' defense ($4,400) has been decent in terms of getting to the quarterback recently, picking up nine sacks in the past three games, but they've impressively failed to force a turnover in four straight. On the plus side, Trubisky has been more aggressive over the past three games, leading to four interceptions, so there's at least some potential there, even if he doesn't get sacked at a terribly high rate. There is obviously touchdown upside with any defense/special teams, more so than kickers, but relying on the Cowboys to make something happen seems desperate.

On the other hand, the Bears haven't been getting many sacks lately (five in the past four games), but they've at least gotten five turnovers in that span. None turned into touchdowns, and they haven't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 4, so we have another case of considering them solely on the belief that variance will side with them at some point and it could be Thursday. We also shouldn't ignore that the game isn't supposed to be high scoring, but we need turnovers and touchdown for a defense to really pay off.