This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Indianapolis (+1.5) at Houston, 49.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
The Story: The recent history of this rivalry is ridiculously tight, which makes this being only divisional rematch in the wild card round all the more exciting. The Colts have won three of the last four meetings, but the last time one of these teams blew out the other came in 2013 (a 25-3 Colts win in which Case Keenum started at QB for the Texans, and Trent Richardson was Indy's leading rusher. In other words, an eternity ago), so there's little reason no to expect another close contest. Actually, there's more been continuity on the rosters over the last five years than you might think. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton hooked up eight times in that game, while DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and both Houston starting CBs (Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson) were in the lineup on the other side. The passing games are likely where this one will be won or lost – the Texans ranked first in YPC allowed and third in rushing yards per game allowed this season, while the Colts were sixth and eighth in those categories. That was apparent in their last clash in Week 14, when both Lamar Miller and Marlon Mack somehow put up identical 14-33-1 lines on the ground. Indy won that one, 24-21, in Houston, with Luck tossing 399 yards (his second-highest total of the year – his highest came in the first meeting with
Indianapolis (+1.5) at Houston, 49.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
The Story: The recent history of this rivalry is ridiculously tight, which makes this being only divisional rematch in the wild card round all the more exciting. The Colts have won three of the last four meetings, but the last time one of these teams blew out the other came in 2013 (a 25-3 Colts win in which Case Keenum started at QB for the Texans, and Trent Richardson was Indy's leading rusher. In other words, an eternity ago), so there's little reason no to expect another close contest. Actually, there's more been continuity on the rosters over the last five years than you might think. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton hooked up eight times in that game, while DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and both Houston starting CBs (Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson) were in the lineup on the other side. The passing games are likely where this one will be won or lost – the Texans ranked first in YPC allowed and third in rushing yards per game allowed this season, while the Colts were sixth and eighth in those categories. That was apparent in their last clash in Week 14, when both Lamar Miller and Marlon Mack somehow put up identical 14-33-1 lines on the ground. Indy won that one, 24-21, in Houston, with Luck tossing 399 yards (his second-highest total of the year – his highest came in the first meeting with the Texans, when he lit them up for 464 and four TDs) and outproducing Deshaun Watson, but beating a divisional opponent twice in a row is a tall task, much less doing it twice in a row in their building. If you believe in momentum, though, it's definitely on the Colts' side. They've won four in a row and nine of their last 10, thanks largely to an offensive line that's arguably been the best in the league over that stretch, while the Texans limped to a 2-2 record over the last month.
The Skinny:
•IND injuries: WR Hilton (questionable, ankle); WR Dontrelle Inman (questionable, shoulder)
•HOU injuries: WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
•IND DFS chalk: Hilton (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Texans DST (HOU tied for fourth in points per game allowed, fourth in takeaways), Ryan Griffin (IND 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five seasons: 6-4 IND, average score 23-21 IND, average margin of victory five points. Only one of the last 10 meetings was decided by more than seven points, a 22-13 IND win in Week 17 of 2017 when neither team had much to play for.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Mack gets held to 50 yards. Luck throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, finding Hilton (who tops 100 yards), Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers. Miller runs for 70 yards and a score. Watson responds with 290 yards and a TD to Hopkins (who also tops 100 yards), while also running in a score of his own. Fittingly, this one needs overtime to settle. Texans, 27-24
Seattle (+1.5) at Dallas, 43.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Story: While this isn't a divisional rivalry, there's still plenty of ghosts haunting this matchup, and the history between these two goes beyond the Seahawks' Week 3 win in Seattle. Expect to see a lot of footage of Tony Romo fumbling the snap on that field-goal attempt in 2007 during the broadcast. The Hawks have actually won four of the last five meetings dating to 2012, including the last two in Dallas. Seattle also won six of seven to close out the regular season, with only an embarrassing loss to the Niners marring that stretch, and it's not a coincidence that Doug Baldwin finally got healthy during that time. All five of his TDs, as well as his only 100-yard performance and only two games with double-digit targets, came in those seven games, and his battle with Byron Jones on the outside figures to be one of the marquee bouts on the card. Chris Carson remains the engine of the Seattle offense, though – during those same seven games, he piled up 654 yards and seven touchdowns, effectively matching what rushing champ Ezekiel Elliott was doing on the ground for the Cowboys (603 yards and two TDs in six games before getting Week 17 off, though Zeke also added 305 yards and a score as a receiver). If this game does unexpectedly open up, that might not be a bad thing for Dallas. Dak Prescott's huge Week 17 showing against the Giants might be dismissed as taking advantage of an opponent that was mentally checked out, but then what about his 455 yards and three TDs a few weeks prior against the desperate Eagles? At the very least, those huge second-half performances by Prescott (and Amari Cooper, and even Blake Jarwin) gives the Seahawks' defense something to think about other than stacking the box against Elliott.
The Skinny:
•SEA injuries: none
•DAL injuries: none
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS chalk: Elliott (SEA 30th in YPC allowed
•SEA DFS tournament plays: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Carson bangs out 80 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 270 yards and TDs to David Moore and Ed Dickson. Elliott looks well rested, thundering for 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 220 yards, hitting Cooper for a TD, but his comeback attempt in the final minutes falls short. Seahawks, 24-20
L.A. Chargers (+2.5) at Baltimore, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST
The Story: This is probably the game I struggled with the most this weekend, and thus the one I'm going to be paying the closest attention to. By most of the metrics I look at (which, granted, haven't done me much good if you look at my ATS and o/u records on the year), the Chargers should win this game outright and be a strong play getting the points. The problem is, those metrics assume each team is using a normal, modern offense, not the run-heavy scheme the Ravens have been deploying with great success since handing the reins to Lamar Jackson. Complicating the picture even further is that the Bolts already faced that offense just a couple weeks ago and held it to 22 points, only for Philip Rivers to fizzle. Does the Ravens' defense have Rivers' number, or will the veteran have a much better plan of attack this time around? And will the Chargers' defense be able to contain Jackson (who rushed for only 39 yards in Week 16, his worst performance on the ground as a starter) so effectively again? Basically, both teams have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and both teams have plenty of momentum (the Ravens have won six of their last seven, while the Bolts' only loss in their last six was the one to Baltimore), so this really comes down to the chess match between the coaching staffs. Who do you trust to make the necessary adjustments, John Harbaugh – who has experience guiding an elite defense and run-heavy offense to a Super Bowl – or Anthony Lynn, a product of Bill Parcells' coaching tree?
The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (questionable, groin)
•BAL injuries: none
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Melvin Gordon is held to 60 combined yards. Rivers throws for 230 yards and TDs to Mike Williams and Antonio Gates. Gus Edwards runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 50, but he does find John Brown for a score. A Matt Judon fumble return to the house proves to be the difference. Ravens, 24-17
Philadelphia (+5.5) at Chicago, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST
The Story: Are the Eagles a team of destiny? Their Week 17 shutout of Washington to grab the final wild card might not have been all that impressive given the opposition, but their two prior wins over the Rams and Texans, both division winners, to keep their playoff hopes alive while trying to piece together an injury-ravaged secondary certainly were. Then there's the Nick Foles' factor. Just as he was in last year's postseason, the veteran backup has been sharp while replacing the injured Carson Wentz, looking more comfortable in stretching the field and posting a 6:3 TD:INT over that three-game winning streak. While some of the names have changed (Jay Ajayi out, Golden Tate and Josh Adams in), Philly's formula to close out the regular season looks awfully similar to the one that made them Super Bowl champs last year. On the other hand, the Bears are also hewing fairly closely to a championship template, namely that of the franchise's 1985 run. Chicago's defense has been the most fearsome unit in the league ever since it took advantage of the Raiders' fire sale and scooped up Khalil Mack, but he's far from the only key contributor. Eddie Jackson, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd and others have all made big impacts, taking a ton of pressure off second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky to be anything more than just good enough. The parallels also extend to the offense – Jim McMahon was also a top-five pick who wasn't exactly a Hall of Famer, though he does still hold plenty of Chicago passing records, and coach Matt Nay even has his own Refrigerator Perry in Hicks. The Bears are the hottest team in the NFC entering the playoffs, winning four straight and nine of 10 – including thumping the Vikings in Week 17 to help put the Eagles in the postseason. Let's see if they wind up regretting it.
The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: QB Wentz (out, back); RB Wendell Smallwood (questionable, hand); DT Fletcher Cox (questionable, knee)
•CHI injuries: S Jackson (questionable, ankle)
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (first in points per game allowed, tied for third in sacks, first in takeaways)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, 11-13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Adams gets held to 40 yards, while Darren Sproles leads the Eagles backfield with 60 combined yards. Foles throws for 210 yards. Tarik Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 80 combined yards, while Jordan Howard adds 70 yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Taylor Gabriel. Bears, 20-6
Last week's record: 11-5, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
