This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The official theme song of this tilt is Two Gunslingers by Tom Petty. The 43-year-old Tom Brady is very clearly on a mission to not only appear in his 10th Super Bowl, he's trying to make the Bucs the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. For a guy who's already done basically everything, doing something nobody else has done before is more than enough motivation. His nine SB berths are mirrored by the nine consecutive games in which he's tossed multiple TDs, a stretch during which he has a 24:5 TD:INT and 8.4 YPA, but his receiving corps isn't in great shape. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown were on the injured list this week, and while the first two should suit up, AB won't. The bigger question is whether the secondary can step up. The Bucs have held up against a noodle-armed Drew Brees and an inexperienced Taylor Heinicke in the playoffs, but the last time they faced a better QB, Matt Ryan lit them up for 621 yards and a 5:0 TD:INT in Weeks 15 and 17 combined — and Ryan is no Aaron Rodgers. Over his last nine games, the 37-year-old has posted a 26:3 TD:INT and 8.3 YPA while completing an absurd 73.0 percent of his passes, and Rodgers just got done picking apart a Rams defense that was a whole lot better on the
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The official theme song of this tilt is Two Gunslingers by Tom Petty. The 43-year-old Tom Brady is very clearly on a mission to not only appear in his 10th Super Bowl, he's trying to make the Bucs the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. For a guy who's already done basically everything, doing something nobody else has done before is more than enough motivation. His nine SB berths are mirrored by the nine consecutive games in which he's tossed multiple TDs, a stretch during which he has a 24:5 TD:INT and 8.4 YPA, but his receiving corps isn't in great shape. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown were on the injured list this week, and while the first two should suit up, AB won't. The bigger question is whether the secondary can step up. The Bucs have held up against a noodle-armed Drew Brees and an inexperienced Taylor Heinicke in the playoffs, but the last time they faced a better QB, Matt Ryan lit them up for 621 yards and a 5:0 TD:INT in Weeks 15 and 17 combined — and Ryan is no Aaron Rodgers. Over his last nine games, the 37-year-old has posted a 26:3 TD:INT and 8.3 YPA while completing an absurd 73.0 percent of his passes, and Rodgers just got done picking apart a Rams defense that was a whole lot better on the back end than the Bucs. The Packers aren't a picture of health themselves, and home-field advantage doesn't mean as much this season as it normally does, but the frigid weather in Lambeau Field on Sunday won't be a friendly environment for a team that plays in Florida. You can argue that Brady is used to the cold as a long-time Patriot, but you'd be surprised how quickly the body can adapt to sunshine. Working in Tampa Bay's favor is the confidence that comes from their 38-10 pasting of the Pack in Week 6, but that game wasn't in Green Bay, and mid-October was a lifetime ago in football terms.
The Skinny
TB injuries: WR Brown (out, knee), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, ankle)
GB injuries: CB Kevin King (questionable, back)
TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette $5,300 DK / $7,200 FD (GB 21st in YPC allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
GB DFS targets: Robert Tonyan $3,600 DK / $5,700 FD (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
TB DFS fades: Scotty Miller $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (GB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: Aaron Jones $6,500 DK / $8,000 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,900 DK / $5,500 FD (TB first in DVOA vs. WR3)
Key stat: GB is first in red-zone conversions at 80.0 percent; TB is 20th in red-zone defense at 62.7 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-20s, 9-10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Fournette totals 80 combined yards and a TD, while Ronald Jones adds 50 yards. Brady throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Godwin. Jones manages 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 300 yards and three scores, finding Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Tonyan, while Za'Darius Smith ices the game with a fumble return to the house. Packers, 31-17
Buffalo (+3) at Kansas City, o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
If there's a Petty song appropriate for this game, it might be this one, especially if you're a Bills fan. Kansas City boosters were on pins and needles this week, though, too, waiting to see if Patrick Mahomes got cleared through the league's concussion protocol in time for Sunday. If Chad Henne had gotten the start instead ... well, by my formula, that would make the Bills about a 14-point favorite on a neutral field. Given that Mahomes is also dealing with a toe issue, it's a real question whether he will be at peak performance for this one, and Buffalo could hang with the defending champs regardless — in fact, Kansas City is the only one of the four remaining teams that didn't average more than 30 points a game in the regular season (GB-BUF-TB finished 1-2-3 in points per game, while KC was sixth). Coincidentally, these two teams also met in Week 6, and also in the underdog's stadium, but the AFC championship preview ended up going Kansas City's way as Josh Allen posted his worst passing numbers of the year. He also got held relatively in check by the Ravens last week, but like all the QBs still playing, he's been all but unstoppable down the stretch, and over his last seven games he has 18:2 TD:INT and 8.0 YPA while completing 69.5 percent of his passes. Allen too has a banged-up group of wideouts at his disposal, but the most important member of the group, Stefon Diggs, should be fine come kickoff. Zack Moss is sidelined as well, but otherwise the Bills head into this one mostly healthy. Kansas City has some injuries scattered around their roster, but they all pale in comparison to Mahomes. His numbers in his last seven haven't quite matched Allen's (14:5 TD:INT, 8.0 YPA, 66.1 percent completion rate), but everyone knows what he's capable of, and he might have Sammy Watkins back for the first time since Week 15. The team's run defense is the biggest Achilles heel of any unit left standing, but as the Bills showed last week, they're not particularly interested in winning the ground game. The chess match between Buffalo OC Brian Daboll and Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo could be the most important one of the weekend.
The Skinny
BUF injuries: RB Moss (IR, ankle), WR Gabriel Davis (questionable, ankle)
KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable, ankle), RB Le'Veon Bell (questionable, knee), WR Watkins (questionable, calf), LG Kelechi Osemele (IR, knee), RT Mitchell Schwartz (IR, back), CB Bashaud Breeland (questionable, concussion)
BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $4,500 DK / $5,800 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $7,200 DK / $8,400 FD (BUF 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1)
BUF DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Sammy Watkins $3,800 DK / $5,400 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR2), Demarcus Robinson $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Key stat: BUF is 13th in red-zone conversions at 61.8 percent; KC is 32nd in red-zone defense at 76.6 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 10-11 mph wind, 1-15 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Singletary racks up 90 combined yards and a score. Allen shines, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Cole Beasley while running in a touchdown of his own. Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and three TDs, finding Hill (who also tops 100 yards) twice and Travis Kelce once, but it's not enough. Bills, 28-27
Last week's record: 6-4, 5-5 ATS, 3-6-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 957-573-6, 722-756-58 ATS, 610-644-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
