This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of Week: No defending SB Champion has won a playoff game since NE in 2005 (lost to DEN in divisional round).
Arizona (+4.5) at St. Louis, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: After consecutive road losses, Cardinals came from behind to beat KC and remain undefeated at home (seven wins, most since 1925). Arizona, 10-3 despite being outgained by opponents this season, lost another yardage battle but improved to 10-0 in non-division home games since 2013. The offense, already struggling without Carson Palmer (18 points or less in four straight), was dealt another blow with Andre Ellington placed on IR. Jaron Brown's third-quarter score was the unit's first TD in 13 quarters. A playoff berth would be miraculous considering the bevy of players lost since camp on both sides of the ball. In his last five starts, Drew Stanton is 2-3 with a 4:5 TD:INT ratio. Over the last four games, Michael Floyd exceeded 50 yards three times and averaged 8.0 YPT while Larry Fitzgerald hasn't topped 34 yards, missing two. Rather than Marion Grice or Stepfan Taylor, it was Kerwynn Williams, a 2013 seventh-round pick out of Utah State, stepping in for Ellington. The virtually unknown 5-foot-8, 198-pounder gained 100 yards on 19 carries (25 snaps), but St. Louis' 10th-ranked run defense (104.8 YPG) allows 12.7 FPPG to opposing RB, sixth-fewest in NFL. ... This Rams squad, the first since 1945 to record consecutive shutouts, won't make the playoffs but will play an integral role in who will with upcoming meetings with AZ and SEA. They've compiled an aggregate score of 76-0 over their last two and look to become just the third team since the merger to blank three straight opponents (1976 Steelers, 1970 Cardinals). After recording just one sack through five games -- fewest in league history -- STL is now seventh in that category after amassing 38 in their last eight (4.75 per). Shaun Hill, 3-1 since reinsertion into starting lineup, averages 9.0 YPA with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio the last two weeks. Jared Cook (53.9-percent catch rate) scored at least 14 points for the second time in five games, but those are the only occasions with more than two points/27 yards in his last eight. Don't get too excited about Tavon Austin scoring in three straight; he averages 30.0 YFS. Over the last four games, Tre Mason averages 19.8 carries for 89.5 yards (4.5 YPC). However, he's been sub-4.0 five of six and Arizona allows second-fewest points to RB (12.2 FPPG).
Predictions: Cards bottle Tre Mason, limiting him to 54 yards on 19 carries. Rams stifle the AZ running game throughout, proving Kerwynn Williams a fluke (41 total yards). Larry Fitzgerald hauls in four passes for 59 yards, Michael Floyd five for 62. Like the Rams but not by more than a FG with turnovers frequent and points at a premium. St. Louis, 16-13.
Oakland (+9.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Raiders won for the second time in three weeks following that 0-10 start, knocking off two 7-6 clubs (KC, SF). Latavius Murray operated as the workhorse against the Niners, carrying 23 times in his return. If not for a long reception nullified by penalty, he'd have eclipsed the century mark from scrimmage in a second straight. Murray, 6.5 YPC this season, roasted Kansas City's 31st-ranked run defense (136.8 YPG, dead last in YPC, 4.9) for 4-112-2 in their first meeting. Derek Carr played his best game as a pro last week, registering career highs in YPA (9.1) and completion percentage (78.6). Despite ranking second in pass defense (199 YPG), KC allows opposing quarterbacks a 20:4 TD:INT ratio and Carr posted 3:0 versus SF. Mychal Rivera, 15th among TE, scored 12-plus points in three of his last six, 43 total in those contests. Due to complete ineptitude of outside receivers (see James Jones and Andre Holmes game logs for good laughs), Rivera has been targeted seven times or more in five of seven. ... Chiefs have dropped three straight since knocking off the defending champs in Arrowhead, but remain in control of their playoff destiny given upcoming matchups with PIT and SD (currently seeded fifth and sixth). They've been out-gained by opponents this season and the streak without a WR touchdown reached 16 games, longest in 35 years. That won't end unless Dwayne Bowe gets more opportunities; 17 targets last four games (9 receptions). Alex Smith passed for a season-high 293 yards in Arizona, scoring at least 15 points for the fourth time in six weeks. TE9 Travis Kelce, he of the ridiculous 10.4 YPT and 77 percent catch rate, notched his first career 100-yard game but his late fumble proved costly. No. 6 RB Jamaal Charles scored all of his league-high 14 touchdowns the last 10 games, averaging 18.1 FPPG over that span (19.7 last year). He's hit pay dirt and at least 11 points in eight straight while Oakland allows 21.2 FPPG, t-fourth most.
Predictions:Latavius Murray rips KC again for 121 yards and a touch. Jamaal Charles (knee, ankle) looks no worse for the wear with 124 YFS and two TD. Neither QB passes for 200 yards. Both Mychal Rivera and Travis Kelce lead their team in receiving and score. Chiefs avenge the Thursday nightmare. Kansas City, 24-14.
Jacksonville (+13.5) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Jaguars followed up their miraculous (seriously, two fumble return TD?) win over the G-Men with a lackluster home loss to Houston. Jacksonville ranks dead last in scoring (15.3 PPG) and 31st in total offense (297.3 YPG) with each of its last five defeats coming by double figures. Blake Bortles averages 181.7 YPG and 5.4 YPA his last three and thrown only two touchdowns since Week 10. Marqise Lee earned more targets, converting 14-of-21 (66.7 percent) for 194 yards (9.2 YPT, 64.7 YPG) the last three weeks. After his dreadful performance against HOU, Cecil Shorts has gained a paltry 44 yards on 20 targets his last three games for a pathetic 35 percent catch rate and 2.2 YPT. Toby Gerhart is back in with Denard Robinson (foot) done for the year. Robinson rushed for 99 yards combined the last three weeks after averaging 97.3 on the ground his previous four, primarily because his carries decreased in six straight. Gerhart is terrible and running behind one of football's worst offensive lines while Baltimore allows the fewest points to opposing RB (10.2 FPPG). ... Ravens won three of four to improve to 8-5, closing to within a half-game of division-leading Cincy. Joe Flacco, 12th in QB scoring, has exactly 23 points each of his last two games after scoring only 23 combined the previous two. Perhaps most importantly, he's turned it over only once in four games. Hobbling on a sprained knee, Torrey Smith played just 15 snaps. Outside of the two goose eggs, Smith averages 13.8 FPPG since Week 6. No ligament tears but consider him a dicey flex option; hard to say if he can get back to that level given what we saw Sunday. WR17 Steve Smith scored 13 or more in two of his last three with a doughnut sandwiched in between. Justin Forsett, eighth among RB, played through his own knee injury to score 11-plus points for the fourth straight time. Forsett hasn't been held under nine points since Week 3 and JAX, 28th in both rushing YPG (132.8) and TD (14) allowed, is one of six teams surrendering 20.0 FPPG or worse to RB.
Predictions: Even without Haloti Ngata (suspension), Ravens stifle Toby Gerhart (14-31-0). Marqise Lee records his first career 100-yard game against Baltimore's makeshift secondary. Justin Forsett totals 140 yards (107 rushing) and a score. Joe Flacco passes for 271 yards and touchdowns to each Smith. That's a big number; just don't see Jags covering it. Baltimore, 27-13.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Atlanta, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Steelers are just 2-2 over their last four despite three of those teams being 5-8 or worse. That 42-21 victory in Cincinnati was impressive, but Pittsburgh plays down to its competition far too often. No. 5 QB Ben Roethlisberger scored at least 25 points in consecutive weeks and Falcons rank dead last in both YPG (287.8) and YPA (8.2). However, the last time Roethlisberger was coming off back-to-back big games with a cupcake matchup, things didn't go so well in NY. Top fantasy wideout Antonio Brown caught at least eight passes in each of his last seven. He's reach double digits in all but two and ATL allows 24.7 FPPG to WR, fifth-most. Martavis Bryant, 36th among WR despite not playing six games, scored at least 16 points in four of his last six. The explosive rookie averages 21.6 YPC and 11.6 YPT, clearly earning more snaps (27.3 per) and targets (no more than seven in any game). Le'Veon Bell became the first player since Walter Payton in 1977 with 200-plus total yards in three consecutive games, establishing career highs in fantasy points each time (27-30-41). Bell's 98 points during that span vaulted him to second in RB scoring. Since Tom Brady scored 106 in Weeks 6-8 of 2007, only two players have scored more in a three-game stretch: Cam Newton (101) and Doug Martin (100). Better than 50/50 chance streak continues as no team allows more TD (19) or fantasy points (22.3) to RB than Atlanta. ... Despite the comeback coming up six points short Monday night, Falcons remain tied for the division lead at 5-8. After failing to cross the 15-point threshold in seven straight, No. 8 QB Matt Ryan scored 20-plus each of his last two, including a season-high 31 in Lambeau. Ryan, averaging 19.0 FPPG at home, has 736 yards and six TD the last two games while quarterbacks have a 26:8 TD:INT ratio against Pittsburgh, 29th in YPA (8.0). Leading receiver Julio Jones (1,428 yards) jumped to fourth among WR with 55 points the last two weeks, at least 24 in each. He reached the endzone in three straight following a seven-game scoreless streak and posted a 21-448-2 line on 28 targets (16.0 YPT) these last two. Dream matchup, health permitting (hip): during that same stretch, PIT allowed 16-386-2 on 21 targets (18.4 YPT) to opposition's No. 1 WR (Stills, Green). Jones leads the league in 20-yard receptions (27) and Steelers allowed a TD pass of at least 65 yards in four straight. No. 18 RB Steven Jackson, Atlanta's first back to crack 100 yards rushing in 35 games, reached double figures for the fifth time in six weeks.
Predictions:Antonio Brown accounts for 156 of Ben Roethlisberger's 334 yards and both TD. Le'Veon Bell shreds Atlanta for 209 YFS and two scores. Julio Jones' hip is the only thing keeping him from topping career highs in yardage for a third straight week. In his absence, Roddy White delivers his fifth consecutive nine-plus point performance. Steven Jackson hits paydirt and double digits again. Matt Ryan passes for 329 yards and three TD but loses the shootout. Pittsburgh, 34-31.
Houston (+6.5) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Texans won four of their last six, winning each by at least two TD. However, opponents weren't exactly murderer's row (TEN twice, JAX, CLE) and on the wrong end of the last four meetings with Indy. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 8.0 YPA overall, posted 8.2 or better in five of 11 starts with only two under 7.1. Throwing out an ugly two-week stretch, Fitzpatrick's TD:INT ratio is 15:3. DeAndre Hopkins is 12th in WR scoring despite scoring single digits seven of his last nine. Hopkins, averaging 11.4 YPT, has only two games with double-digit targets and 96 this season while inferior Andre Johnson was targeted 10-plus times on six occasions with 119 altogether despite 6.2 YPT. Johnson scores every 368.5 scrimmage yards, 95th among qualifying players. J.J. Watt is the first player regardless of position with three offensive and two defensive TD since 1948. Arian Foster, fifth in RB scoring and best on a per-game basis (18.9 FPPG), has at least 1,000 yards rushing and 12 total TD in four of five seasons. Foster scored at least 15 points each of his last seven while IND allows 19.6 FPPG to opposing RB, seventh-most. ... Colts overcame a slow start and sloppy offensive performance for their third consecutive win. Top fantasy QB Andrew Luck leads the league in passing yards (4,305) and touchdowns (39). Luck needs to correct this turnover trend (multiple giveaways in three straight) but already broke the record for passing yards in first three seasons and Houston ranks 28th against the pass (264.0 YPG). No. 5 WR T.Y. Hilton scored seven TD his last eight games, reaching double figures in seven. Hilton's line in five career games against Houston: 31-611-6 with three 100-yard outings and no less than 78 in any. Reggie Wayne played maybe his worst professional game, catching 1-of-8 targets for five yards with three drops. Clearly affected by the triceps, Wayne posted 8-46-0 on 22 targets (2.1 YPT) the last three weeks. TE7 Coby Fleener saw 10 targets even with No. 11 TE Dwayne Allen returning (both 57-60 snaps). Daniel Herron and Trent Richardson received 28 carries apiece the last three weeks despite Herron averaging nearly two more YPC this year (5.1-3.3).
Predictions:Andrew Luck throws for 341 yards and three TD. Texans still can't cover T.Y. Hilton, who finishes with 113 yards and a touch. Arian Foster rushes for 103 yards and scores. With Andre Johnson sidelined (concussion), Vontae Davis blankets DeAndre Hopkins (5-44-0). Colts cover at home, clinching the AFC South. Indianapolis, 28-21.
Cincinnati (PK) at Cleveland, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Pittsburgh scored the final 25 points, halting the Bengals' winning streak at three. Huge AFC North implications with first and last separated by 1.5 games. In his last four, Andy Dalton scored three touchdowns and 21-plus points twice. He's completing 70.8 percent over that span with one TO or less in three of four but Browns allow sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks (13.2 FPPG). A.J. Green is sensational, 15th in WR scoring despite missing essentially four games. Green struggled with Joe Haden since 2013 (12-81-0 in three meetings) but coming off his first career 200-yard game with 69 points over his last four (at least 11 in each). Mohamed Sanu went ice cold with merely 126 yards the last five weeks combined. With Giovani Bernard contributing a paltry 12 points since Week 9 (three games played, missed) and Jeremy Hill scoring six points or less in two straight, relying on either player is risky even in a plus-matchup (CLE 26th versus the run). ... Andrew Luck's game-winning TD to T.Y. Hilton in the final seconds dealt the Browns their third loss in four games. Completing 49.7 percent with a 1:8 TD:INT ratio over his last four, Brian Hoyer finally got himself benched in spite of a 10-6 record since 2013. Johnny Manziel faces a Bengals defense allowing a 14:12 TD:INT ratio and 14.1 FPPG to opposing QB (seventh-fewest). Josh Gordon averages 5.8 YPT (10.4 last season) and saw a drop in production every week across the board (receptions, targets, yards, YPC, YPT) despite playing 50-plus snaps in each. Bengals allow second-fewest FPPG (15.8) to enemy WR but the presence of risk-taking Manziel boosts the value of Cleveland's pass-catchers. Jordan Cameron played 51 snaps in his return but hasn't been targeted more than seven times in a game yet. Still splitting too many touches with Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell cracked double digits in three of his last five. Manziel's rushing ability opens up additional running lanes and only one team allows more rushing TD than Cincinnati, who surrenders fourth-most points to RB (21.2 FPPG).
Predictions: Mixed results for Johnny Manziel in his much-anticipated debut (17 points but two costly TO). Josh Gordon scores his first touchdown during a 95-yard day. Isaiah Crowell rushes 15 times for 79 yards and a touch. Joe Haden makes A.J. Green earn every yard (6-81-1 on 14 targets). Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combine for 151 total yards; TD goes to Bernard. Bengals bounce back, burying Browns' playoff hopes. Cincinnati, 24-20.
Miami (+7.5) at New England, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Given last week's loss to BAL, Miami has now alternated wins and losses six straight weeks. Fortunately, that pattern indicates a victory Sunday and they've beaten NE each of their last two meetings. Ryan Tannehill, 11th among QB, completed at least 69.7 percent for a seventh consecutive game but scored 13 points or fewer four times during that stretch. He has just one TD and 21 points over his last two while Pats allowed only seven pass TD over their last five, including showdowns with Rodgers, Manning, Luck, Rivers, and Stafford. Mike Wallace fell to WR27 after scoring just 42 points the last seven weeks, held under 40 yards in three of his last four. Good luck reversing those trends against Darrelle Revis. Jarvis Landry, targeted 43 times the last five games, caught at least five passes for a sixth straight, 38 total over that span. Landry's catch rate is ridiculous (75.9) but getting off Brandon Browner's jam is easier said than done. Joe Philbin essentially caps the upside of No. 12 RB Lamar Miller, who carried more than 15 times just once all year despite averaging 4.8 YPC-4.3 or better in six of seven-without the benefit of a single 40-yard run. NE allowed 191 on the ground to MIA Week 1 but just five rushing TD all year, second in NFL, and Miller's scored once in five games. ... Patriots improved to 31-10 ATS following a loss since 2003, nabbing their eighth victory in nine games and becoming only the second team in NFL history with 12 straight 10-win seasons. QB7 Tom Brady, 46-7 in December, posted his ninth consecutive multi-TD game. Brady topped 300 yards for the fifth time in eight games but hasn't cracked 20 points in four straight. Top TE Rob Gronkowski, three yards shy of his second 1,000-yard campaign, already owns more double-digit TD seasons than any TE in history (4) at the ripe of old age of 25. Gronk is unstoppable, scoring six TD and 91 points over his last six with at least 71 yards every game. WR20 Julian Edelman had a career-high 141 yards in SD, giving him 80-plus for the seventh time. Brandon LaFell, two spots below Edelman, was sub-par last week but 56 targets over his last six. LeGarrette Blount rushed for at least 58 yards in all three games with NE and Miami was gashed for 661 yards its last three, at least 183 in each.
Predictions: Patriots exploit Miami's weakness, rushing 39 times for 163 yards. Tom Brady tosses three TD but only 238 yards given the gameplan. Rob Gronkowski hauls in seven for 97, scoring twice. Mike Wallace is swallowed up by Revis Island, managing just 32 yards. Lamar Miller goes for 20-122-2, including a 61-yard scoring scamper. Pats cover thanks to two Ryan Tannehill turnovers. New England, 31-23.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Despite playing much better football of late, Bucs lost three straight overall and to Carolina. Only four teams have a lower TO differential than Tampa (-8), who boasts maybe the league's worst OL (No. 31 pass blocking unit per PFF, not much better running). Josh McCown completed 52.1 percent or fewer each of his last three games, posting a 3:5 TD:INT ratio and taking 12 sacks during that time (passer rating 67.3 or worse in each). No. 10 WR Mike Evans scored eight TD and 104 points over his last six, reaching the endzone and double figures in five. However, Evans caught 11-of-31 targets the last three weeks, a catch rate of 35.3 percent (no better than 44.4 in any). Vincent Jackson, double-digit targets in six of his last 10, is on a nine-game scoreless streak but posted season highs in catches (10), yards (159), and targets (17) last week. Doug Martin and Charles Sims combined for 18 yards on 10 carries against DET, albeit in a brutal matchup. CAR run D ranks 29th in YPC (4.4) but neither player is above 3.0 for the year. ... In a shocking turn of events, Carolina went into the Superdome and drubbed the Saints by 31 as double-digit underdogs to end a seven-game winless streak. A primary reason being the Panthers started the same offensive line in consecutive weeks for the first time all year, helping them rush for as many TD (2) as the previous six games combined. No Cam Newton following Tuesday's car accident; unfortunate timing considering he's coming off season-highs in points (35) and TD (4). Derek Anderson went turnover-free in his lone start, completing 70.6 percent during a 20-14 opening-day victory in Tampa. WR14 Kelvin Benjamin has only 80 yards on 17 targets his last two games (4.7 YPT), but leads the league with 19 endzone targets and posted 6-92-1 against TB Week 1. Greg Olsen vaulted to No. 2 in TE scoring with his seventh double-digit game, scoring his first TD since Week 6. Jonathan Stewart rushed for 155 yards, second-most of his career and first 100-yard game in four years. Stewart, averaging 15.6 touches for 85.0 total yards with DeAngelo Williams out of the lineup, has 100-plus total yards in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2010. He's rushed 32 times for 240 yards (7.5 YPC) the last two weeks and quietly leads the NFL in PFF's Elusive Rating. TB allows the sixth-most points to WR, eighth-most to RB, and 10th-most to QB.
Predictions: Without Cam Newton, Panthers lean on Jonathan Stewart; effectiveness suffers without his mobile QB but he churns out 81 yards and a TD nonetheless. Kelvin Benjamin scores during a 77-yard effort. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson both top 70 yards receiving but Doug Martin steals the show with 106 total yards and a touch. Buccaneers allow no more than one pass TD for the sixth time in eight games, taking advantage of Newton's absence and pulling the upset. Tampa Bay, 20-19.
Washington (+6.5) at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Redskins lost five in a row, scoring 13 points or fewer in three of four including last week's doughnut. Jay Gruden remains mum on QB situation with Colt McCoy dealing with a sprained neck. McCoy played his worst game of the year all around (two INT, 6.2 YPA, 54.0 passer rating) but took first-team snaps in practice. McCoy summoned his inner RG3 the last two weeks, taking six sacks in each, but completes 71.9 percent for 8.4 YPA this year. WR17 DeSean Jackson (fibula contusion) missed last week and had a season-low nine yards the first meeting with NYG but totaled 382 yards on 27 receptions his previous four against them, catching at least six in each. With D-Jack sidelined, Pierre Garcon secured 9-of-11 targets for 95 yards, most since Week 3 in each category. Still-scoreless Jordan Reed, averaging 8.0 YPT, was targeted 18 times over his last two. No. 9 RB Alfred Morris would be the primary beneficiary of Robert Griffin III playing: he has 79 more yards (489-410) and three more TD (5-2) in his five starts than the eight by McCoy/Cousins. Morris averages 46.5 fewer YPG (97.8-51.3) without Griffin but New York's run D ranks 31st in YPC (4.9) and YPG (134.5). ... Giants crushed Tennessee 36-7, halting their seven-game skid. No. 15 QB Eli Manning scored 12 points or fewer in four of his last five but a season-high 32 points and five TD in Week 4 at Washington, who allows a league-worst 20.0 FPPG to QB. Odell Beckham, 17th in WR scoring despite missing September, was targeted 67 times his last six games, resulting in 49 catches for 723 yards (at least 6-90 in each). His 117 points are third most in a receiver's first nine career games since 1960. TE10 Larry Donnell scored three points or fewer seven times his last 11 tries, including three straight and four of five. Rashad Jennings (ankle) played just 14 snaps last week, averaging 3.5 YPC or less in all four since returning. Andre Williams filled in admirably with career highs across the board (24-131-1), topping 3.5 YPC for the first time in nine games. Williams scored in four of his last six including a season-long 50-yarder versus TEN, but defending the RB is maybe the only thing WSH does well, allowing 12.3 FPPG to the position (fourth fewest).
Predictions: Skins gameplan centers around Alfred Morris, rushing 24 times for 111 yards and a TD. Jordan Reed snags eight for 92 yards and a touch while DRC shuts down Desean Jackson (46 yards). Rashad Jennings carries the load but manages just 67 YFS. Odell Beckham's ridiculous run continues, burning David Amerson for a 57-yard score en route to 9-149-2. G-Men cruise to second straight win. New York Giants, 27-20.
Green Bay (-5.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Packers are en fuego, winners of five straight and nine of 10. At one point Monday night they had 21 first downs on 39 offensive snaps and average an 18-point halftime lead over their last seven. No. 2 QB Aaron Rodgers, netting an NFL-best 8.9 YPA inside the pocket, scored at least 24 points for the seventh time in eight games. Rodgers' 27,520 yards, 222 TD, and 4.11 TD:INT ratio are all best among QB through 100 career starts (68-32 record) and his 90 TD against the blitz are most in the NFL since 2008. His 4.05:1 TD:INT ratio is by far the best in history (next closest: Brady, 2.76) and he completes a league-high 56 percent of passes of more than 20 yards, resulting in 10 touchdowns with zero picks. Bills' fifth-ranked pass defense (212.8 YPG) ranks second in fantasy points (11.8 FPPG) and first in TD:INT ratio (14:17) allowed to opposing QB. Jordy Nelson, second in WR scoring, has an NFL-record seven different 40-plus yard TD catches at home this season but longest reception on the road is 23 yards. Nelson scored six touchdowns and 86 points the last five weeks while WR9 Randall Cobb, scoreless in four straight, has 18 points over his last three. No. 7 RB Eddie Lacy scored a TD rushing and receiving for the third time in four games (22-plus points in each). All 11 touchdowns have come the last nine games but only five teams allow fewer TD (7) and fantasy points (12.7 FPPG) to RB than Buffalo. ... A brutal late-season schedule likely dooms the Bills (DEN, GB, NE in three of final four weeks), but they've exceeded all expectations and have a wealth of promising young talent to build around. After posting 12:3 his first seven games, Kyle Orton has a 2:4 TD:INT ratio over his last two. WR27 Sammy Watkins had more yards (127) and points (10) last week than his prior four combined (9, 105) and faces a defense that Julio Jones just torched for 11-259-1. Fred Jackson proved PPR formats inherently flawed, catching 10 passes for 37 yards in DEN. Jackson has 169 total yards over his last two and GB rates 25th or worse in YPG (129.2) and YPC (4.4).
Predictions: Bills " limit" Aaron Rodgers to 274 yards and two TD. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson both snag one and finish with 75-plus yards. Eddie Lacy reaches the endzone to salvage a poor yardage day (66 YFS). Sammy Watkins feasts on Sam Shields to the tune of 7-134-1. Fred Jackson tops off his 88 total yards with a short-range score. Pack rolls. Green Bay, 28-17.
New York Jets (-1.5) at Tennessee, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Jets lost in heartbreaking fashion for a second straight week, their third consecutive loss overall. Other than that pick-six out the gate, Geno Smith played his best game of the year in the OT loss to Minnesota, posting a season-high 8.8 YPA. Percy Harvin was outstanding, scoring his first TD since 10/25/2012 en route to 6-124-1...then promptly left the stadium on crutches. In a walking boot this week, Harvin (ankle) could be done for the year. Eric Decker caught six passes for a season-high 89 yards (11.1 YPT) following a three-game stretch of only 105 yards on nine receptions (6.6 YPT). Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory rotated almost evenly the last four games with Ivory having the slightest edge in snaps (133-130) and touches (57-53). Revenge game for CJ2K, who has 158 yards on 33 carries the last two weeks (at least 16 in each). Jets are the No. 2 rushing attack in football (149.7 YPG) while Tennessee ranks 31st in points allowed to RB (21.7 FPPG) and dead last against the run (141.5 YPG). ... Titans lost their seventh in a row, last three coming by an average margin of 24.0 points. With Zach Mettenberger's season over (shoulder), Jake Locker is thrust back into the starting role. Locker came on in relief the last two weeks, tossing just one TD and turning it over four times. That's eight turnovers with only three touchdowns his last five games but NYJ allow a league-worst 29:5 TD:INT ratio to quarterbacks. Kendall Wright (hand, inactive last week) is coming off a season-high 19 points last time out and practicing on a limited basis. Derek Hagan stepped in for Justin Hunter alongside Nate Washington, converting 6-of-7 targets for 62 yards. No. 8 TE Delanie Walker topped three points just once since Week 8 but received nine-plus targets in three of his last five. Thanks to sub-4.0 YPC in eight of nine, Bishop Sankey received no more than 24 snaps or 11 carries in four straight. Sankey hasn't rushed for more than 61 yards in a game all year while New York's run defense is fourth in YPC (3.5) and fifth in YPG (87.4).
Predictions:Chris Johnson gets the start against his former club, running angry and exploding for 19-139-2. With Chris Ivory adding another 77 on the ground, NY eclipses 200 yards rushing for the second time in three weeks. Eric Decker snags six for 72. Stymied throughout, Bishop Sankey musters a meager 31 yards. Delanie Walker scores Tennessee's only TD during an 83-yard day. New York Jets, 22-13.
Denver (-4) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Broncos won three straight but looked less impressive each week. No. 3 QB Peyton Manning went ice cold with 15 points or fewer in three of four after scoring no less than 21 in each of his first nine. Manning failed to throw a TD for the first time since 2010, snapping the third-longest streak in NFL history (51 games). His last two weeks combined, 352 yards with a 2:2 TD:INT ratio, amount to one of his typical " average" games. Demaryius Thomas remains third in WR scoring but yardage totals dropped five consecutive weeks, bottoming out against BUF (11 yards) as he failed to reach double figures for the first time in 10 games. WR7 Emmanuel Sanders failed to crack double digits for the second consecutive week after doing so each of his previous six. Amazingly enough, last week Wes Welker had just nine yards less than all other DEN pass-catchers combined (82). Although he didn't play in a third straight, No. 5 TE Julius Thomas (ankle) was active and should be all systems go. C.J. Anderson, 16th among RB despite entering Week 10 with nine points, averages 20.4 FPPG over his last five, scoring 22 or more in four. San Diego has allowed three 100-yard rushers its last seven games. ... Chargers, streakiest team in football, could easily finish the season on a four-game skid as all remaining opponents above .500. They've lost five of their last six to Denver since Manning came aboard. Excluding a 26-point anomaly in Baltimore, No. 10 QB Philip Rivers has 30 points over his last four (no more than 13 or one TD in any). Denver, leading the league in YPA allowed (6.2), intercepted him eight times in five regular-season meetings since 2012. Keenan Allen on the other hand, kills Denver, scoring 53 points his last three against them (at least 13 in each, 17-244-5). Allen had 36 points the prior two games before blanking on Revis Island. Antonio Gates, fifth in TE scoring, hits pay dirt a league-best every 67.6 scrimmage yards but hasn't scored since Week 8, six games ago. After rushing for 175 his first two weeks back, Ryan Mathews has only 88 yards the last two while Broncos' run D ranks second in both YPG (72.8) and YPC (3.5).
Predictions: After going run-heavy for weeks, Peyton Manning erupts for 411 yards and five TD. Demaryius Thomas consistently victimizes Brandon Flowers for 8-142-2. Emmanuel Sanders eclipses the century mark and scores; Julius Thomas nabs the other two. Philip Rivers is intercepted twice but passes for 317 and three TD. Keenan Allen hauls in eight for 90 yards and two scores. Ryan Mathews is bottled up, managing a measly 33 yards. Broncos dominate, clinching AFC West. Denver. 38-24.
Minnesota (+7.5) at Detroit, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: The surprisingly 6-7 Vikings prevailed over the Jets, 30-24 in OT, for the second straight victory. Teddy Bridgewater, multiple touchdowns in three straight, finally won a start in which he threw an interception. Coming off a career-high 11.4 YPA and first 300-yard game since Week 4, Bridgewater faces a DET defense allowing merely 12.7 FPPG to QB (third-fewest). Charles Johnson might be for real, scoring 41 points over his last four including a season-high 16 last week-his first career 100-yard game. He trails Cordarrelle Patterson by seven yards despite basically not playing until Week 11. Hard to imagine Greg Jennings, who actually has seven-plus points in five of seven, being on the team in 2015 given current production and contract. Matt Asiata averages 2.8 YPC since Week 8, exceeding that number in just one of those five (3.7). Detroit's run defense is No. 1 in both YPG (62.8) and YPC (3.0). ... Lions rebounded from back-to-back losses, winning each of their last two by matching 34-17 scores. That was Detroit's first December win since 12/24/2011 (went 0-9 in 2012-2013). Given the schedule and weapons getting healthy, No. 13 QB Matthew Stafford will be a top-five QB from Weeks 13-17 (opponents: CHI-TB-MIN-CHI-GB). Already a nice jump with 45 points, five TD, and 701 yards over his last two. Although rated sixth against the pass (220.8 YPG), Minnesota is middle-of-the-pack in both TD (21) and YPA (7.3). Calvin Johnson, 16th in WR scoring even with all that missed time, caught 19-of-25 targets for 304 yards and three TD the last two weeks (47 points, at least 21 in each). He's been targeted 96 times, at least nine in each, resulting in 863 yards (9.0 YPT) in eight non-decoy games. WR13 Golden Tate, single digits in three of four, reaches the endzone every 403.7 yards from scrimmage (98th in NFL). Although not scoring, he catches 69.4 percent of passes for 9.8 YPT (9.2 or better each of last three seasons). No. 11 RB Joique Bell gained 100-plus total yards and scored twice in back-to-back weeks, resulting in 47 points (22 or more in both). Bell touched it at least 20 times in three straight and faces a MIN run defense 23rd in both YPG (127.2) and YPC (4.4).
Predictions: Still on a tear, Matthew Stafford passes for 292 yards and touchdowns to Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Reggie Bush. Megatron goes for 121 yards, Golden Tate 88. Joique Bell runs through the Vikes for 91 and a score. Matt Asiata does nothing on the ground but scores from short range (15-34-1). Lions force three turnovers (two by Teddy Bridgewater) on the way to the cover. Detroit, 30-20.
San Francisco (+10) at Seattle, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Niners lost their second straight, most recently to the lowly Raiders, scoring fewer than 20 points for the sixth time in seven weeks. No. 18 QB Colin Kaepernick has regressed, RG3-style, tossing one TD or fewer in seven straight and 10 of 13 this season. He has nine points the last two weeks, failing to score more than 13 since Week 6. Both career games with zero TD and multiple INT came against the Seahawks. In five meetings with Seattle (1-4), Kaepernick hasn't had a passer rating higher than 72.0 (cumulative 50.3) while completing 50.5 percent with a 3:9 TD:INT ratio. Michael Crabtree scored six points or fewer in six of his last seven and WR24 Anquan Boldin has five or less in three of four. Oh, and the Hawks' top-ranked pass defense (190.4 YPG) allows the fewest FPPG to both QB (11.3) and WR (13.8). Frank Gore, 26th in RB scoring, managed a meager 40 points his last eight games, while Seattle's run defense, third in both YPG (84.1) and YPC (3.5), hasn't allowed more than 64 yards in three straight. ... Seahawks, winners of three straight and six of seven, gave up a total of 507 yards and 20 points their last three games. They held PHI to 139 total yards and a franchise-record 18:04 TOP (only one drive longer than two minutes). This top-rated defense (274.5 YPG) is clicking on all eight cylinders since Bobby Wagner returned. No. 4 QB Russell Wilson has 85 points the last four games with at least 16 in each, going turnover-free with an 8.2 YPA during that stretch. San Fran gives up the fourth-fewest YPG (211.2) and fifth-fewest FPPG (13.0) to opposing QB. Marshawn Lynch, third among RB, scored 108 points his last six games, reaching double figures in five. Although 49ers are seventh against the run (97.2 YPG) and NaVorro Bowman was activated, they've allowed 100-yard rushers in three of five. Lynch eclipsed the century mark five times his last seven encounters with SF, rushing for 704 yards altogether. Although Doug Baldwin scored 15 points (most since Week 7), he has three or fewer in four of six. Seattle, who amazingly hasn't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Bobby Engram in 2007, will have to wait another year.
Predictions: Surprise, surprise: a defensive battle. Neither QB passes for 200 yards or more than one TD. Marshawn Lynch churns out 107 hard-earned yards and a TD on 23 carries. Frank Gore can't find a hole, finishing with 48 yards. Richard Sherman picks off Colin Kaepernick to seal it. Too big of a line for the Seahawks' offense; they win, but not by double digits. Seattle, 17-10.
Dallas (+3.5) at Philadelphia, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Dallas won three of four, the lone loss a 33-10 beat-down at the hands of Philly. Cowboys scored three times in eight offensive snaps, a span of seven minutes game time, during Thursday's impressive 41-28 win in Chicago (28 points in less than a quarter). They run over two-thirds of the time on first down, resulting in league-highs 5.1 YPC and 6.4 YPP on FD; primarily why they convert 49 percent of third downs, second in NFL. Despite Tony Romo, 15th in QB scoring, playing turnover-free in three of his last five, Cowboys have at least one giveaway in eight straight. Romo, sporting a 15:1 TD:INT ratio on the road (6-0), scored at least three TD and 20 points three times the last four weeks. No. 8 WR Dez Bryant, at least 1,000 yards and 10 TD each of the last three seasons, scored 62 points over his last four (at least 73 yards in each). Bryant's averages 8.8 YPT and hit pay dirt six times the last six games. Great matchup for Cowboys' aerial attack with PHI surrendering fourth-most points to QB (18.8 FPPG) and 25.0 FPPG to opposing WR, third-most. Jason Witten, 13th in TE scoring, has a measly two total points the last two weeks. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray scored a season-high 27 points in Chicago-the 12th time he's scored 13 or more. Murray, hitting the century mark in every road game, tied a team record with his 11th 100-yard performance. He needs to average 131.3 YPG over his last three to hit 2k but hasn't rushed for more than 83 yards in four career meetings with Philly, eighth in NFL allowing 3.9 YPC and the only team to hold him under 4.0 YPC so far. ... Seattle snapped the Eagles' 10-game regular-season home win streak, limiting to 139 yards of total offense, fewest in Chip Kelly era. Although they've lost two of four (4-3 since Week 8), Birds have covered seven of 10 at home with a 16-5 SU record their last 21 overall. Surprisingly, Mark Sanchez failed to exceed 13 points in four of his six games. He's only turned it over once the last two weeks but did so eight times his first four and an interception's always looming with Sanchez. No. 6 WR Jeremy Maclin only has 41 points the last five weeks, scoring eight or fewer in three. Only two teams have allowed fewer TD to WR than Dallas (9), who surrenders eighth-fewest FPPG to the position (18.8). Jordan Matthews' yards and targets decreased in four straight, bottoming out last week (23, 5). LeSean McCoy, 10th in RB scoring despite the slow start, averages 21.5 carries for 106.8 yards his last four and only two teams have given up more rushing TD than the Cowboys (14).
Predictions:DeMarco Murray grinds out 100 even and a TD on 24 carries. Dez Bryant accounts for 156 of Tony Romo's 291 yards and two of three touchdowns. LeSean McCoy rushes for 113 yards and two scores. Jeremy Maclin reaches the endzone during a 122-yard day. Eagles drop two in a row for the first time all year, becoming the eighth team since Week 7 to lose the week after their matchup with Seattle. Cowboys pick off Mark Sanchez twice, remaining undefeated outside of Jerry World, Dallas, 31-28.
New Orleans (-3) at Chicago, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Oddly enough, playing in Chicago bodes well for the Saints, who've lost four straight at home but won their last two outside the Superdome. That unexpected 41-10 beating from Carolina was New Orleans' worst loss in the Sean Payton era. No. 6 QB Drew Brees picked a bad time to have his worst game, tossing exactly one TD for the third time in his last six. Fortunately, no team has allowed more pass TD than CHI (30), ranking 30th in YPA (8.1) and YPG (265.5) while giving up the second-most points to QB (19.1 FPPG). Jimmy Graham, third in TE scoring, failed to exceed two points for the third time in four weeks, gaining just 101 yards on 24 targets (4.2 YPT) during that span. However, Graham was targeted 11 times on his normal snap count (54) and CHI allows more points to enemy TE (10.0 FPPG) than any team in football. Even with last week's 23-yard stinker, Kenny Stills has 283 yards over his last three, leading the team in targets during that time (19). Game flow relegated RB13 Mark Ingram to 16 snaps, resulting in three points or fewer for the second time in three games. Ingram is only 190 shy of his first 1,000-yard season but hasn't reached the endzone in five straight after scoring six times his first five games. ... Bears lost their second straight by at least 13 points. The offense finally woke in the final frame, scoring 21 points after managing just 10 the previous six quarters. It felt like 2013 with DeMarco Murray running for 179 but that was the first 100-yard rusher allowed by Chicago this season. QB9 Jay Cutler, leading the league in giveaways with 21, committed at least one turnover in each of his last seven. Cutler tied a season high with 25 points, giving him 21 or more in five of nine and 70 points over his last four (17.5 per). Saints' 29th-rated pass defense (265.2 YPG) allows third-most points to opposing QB (18.9 FPPG). Due to injury and poor play, Brandon Marshall (IR) will fall short of 1,000 yards receiving for the first time since 2006, snapping the longest active streak in the game (seven seasons). Second-year wideout Marquess Wilson (6-4, 185 pounds, 4.51 forty) fills the void opposite No. 11 WR Alshon Jeffery, who's scored in four straight (five times total) with 15-plus points in three of those. Martellus Bennett, fourth in TE scoring, is coming on strong with 20-193-1 on 26 targets the last two weeks. Bennett, who reached double figures in both contests (24 altogether), already broke the Bears' single-season record for receptions by a TE (76). Matt Forte, fourth among RB, scored 15-plus for the eighth time in 10 games, netting at least 100 total yards in each. Chicago should actually try running the ball (23 attempts, 48 yards last two weeks combined) as Saints gave up 970 yards and five TD to running backs the last four games alone. Dream matchup for Forte: New Orleans' 29th-ranked run defense (133.5 YPG) allows 4.8 YPC (30th) and third-most fantasy points to RB (21.5 FPPG).
Predictions:Drew Brees tosses four touchdowns during a 401-yard performance. Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills hit pay dirt and the century mark. Mark Ingram rushes for 85 yards and a touch. Matt Forte abuses Rex Ryan's defense, totaling 187 YFS (116 rushing) and scoring twice. Jay Cutler passes for 333 yards and three TD. Alshon Jeffery (119 yards) catches one, Martellus Bennett (79 yards) and Marquess Wilson (64 yards) the others. Two of the biggest carnivals don't disappoint; zero defense and tons of points. Third time's a charm for Bears, who lost standalone games each of last two weeks. Chicago, 38-35.
