This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of Week I: Seahawks and Broncos both lost in same weekend for first time since week 17 2011.
Stat of Week II: There have already been more games decided by 14-plus points in 2014 than any full NFL season.
Bye: Pittsburgh, Carolina
Kansas City (-7) at Oakland, Thursday, 8:25 p.m.
Comments: Chiefs, one of the hottest teams in football, won five straight and seven of eight since starting 0-2. Alex Smith has gone consecutive games without a TD pass, tossing just four in his past six. But, true to reputation and role, Smith has gone five games without an interception, throwing just one since a three-INT opening day. Travis Kelce remains top-10 at his position but recorded one point each of the last two games and no more than four in four of his last five. Dwayne Bowe registered season lows in catches (2), yards (18) and targets (4) last week. Bowe averages 8.2 YPT (career high: 8.7) but, along with every other Chiefs receiver, has yet to catch a touchdown this year. Jamaal Charles, sixth among RB, scored 14-plus points against Seattle for a fifth straight and sixth time in his last seven. Charles was utterly dominant last week during his first 100-yard game of 2014 and last season against Oakland, totaling 343 YFS and SEVEN TD in two meetings (at least 24 points in both). The Raiders' 27th-ranked run defense (129.8 YPG) allows 21.0 FPPG to opposing RB (tied, fourth-most). ... Monday marked the Raiders' one-year anniversary of their last victory. With Darren McFadden struggling terribly, no more than 21 rushing yards or 2.6 YPC in three straight, Latavius Murray should get a long look. Murray, an athletic freak at 6-foot-3, 230, with 4.38 speed, looked terrific in limited action against SD (59 total yards on seven touches). Unfortunately, the only team in NFL history to go longer without allowing a rushing touchdown to start a season than KC is the 2011 49ers (14 games). Derek Carr hasn't thrown for even 200 yards in three straight despite averaging 40.7 attempts during that span (39.7 in six games under Tony Sparano). Carr's best passer rating and YPA over those three: 68.8 and 5.1, respectively. To make matters worse, Russell Wilson was the first quarterback to exceed 15 points against Kansas City since Week 2 and his top targets, Andre Holmes and James Jones, combined for a pathetic 120 yards over the last three games. Mychal Rivera finally cooled off; only Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham had more points the previous three weeks. Don't expect that passing game to wake up against Kansas City's top-ranked pass defense (201.6 YPG).
Predictions:Jamaal Charles, who scored all 10 TD the last seven games, continues to own the Raiders, exploding for 176 total yards (128 rushing) and scoring in a sixth straight, doing so twice. Dwayne Bowe scores the Chiefs' first WR touchdown of 2014. Latavius Murray gets the start and rushes for 68 yards and a touch on 13 carries. Derek Carr turns it over twice. Another sloppy offensive performance for OAK, cover for KC (9-1 ATS in 2014). Kansas City, 27-16.
Cleveland (+3) at Atlanta, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Oddly enough, Browns dropped from first to worst in AFC North when their three-game winning streak was snapped last week. However, they're just a half-game out and their best player, Josh Gordon, rejoined the team Monday. It would be foolish to expect Gordon to pick up where he left off last season; not only has he not played football since August, his 117.6 YPG average extrapolated over a full 16-game season would've been 1,881 yards, second-most all-time. While he won't be that player from the get-go, 2013's top receiver in both yards and fantasy points should be considered a top-15 option this week. Brian Hoyer, who has 300-yard games in two of his last three, will benefit greatly from a true No. 1 outside. With Ben Tate no longer in the mix, the responsibility of carrying the running game falls on "baby backs" Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. Averaging 1.7 YPC over the last five, Tate saw his role and carries decrease each game since Week 6 before being waived Tuesday. Expect Crowell to handle early-down duties with West serving as third-down back considering the former averages a full yard more per carry (4.6-3.6) and the latter is the superior receiver. Falcons have allowed the second-most TD (13) and FPPG (21.5) to RB. Browns are hopeful Jordan Cameron (concussion) returns for this contest. Although he's missed three straight and scored more than four points just once all year, dial up Cameron as a low-end TE1 if active given the current TE landscape. In his last seven games, Andrew Hawkins scored 11-plus points three times but just five points combined in the other four. ... Despite a 2-6 record just a few weeks ago heading into the bye, Atlanta currently leads the NFC South. Remember when Matt Ryan was a surefire QB1? Those days are long gone as Ryan has 15 points or fewer in six straight. You could say the same about Julio Jones, who hasn't found the end zone since September 18th despite averaging over 10 targets during that span. Not only has Jones scored six points or fewer in four of his last five games, he will surely be shadowed by All-Pro CB Joe Haden. Trending in the opposite direction, Roddy White has 13 or more points in three of his last four. Steven Jackson has at 18-plus touches in three straight and faces the NFL's 30th-ranked run defense (142.1 YPG).
Predictions:Isaiah Crowell and West combine for 171 YFS and a TD. Josh Gordon scores in his 2014 debut, an 86-yard day. Matt Ryan passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Julio Jones finally snaps his TD drought but struggles overall versus Haden. Steven Jackson manages 70 yards on the ground and a short scoring plunge. Within the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, Falcons win their third straight. Atlanta, 24-20.
Tennessee (+11) at Philadelphia, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Titans blew a 27-13 fourth-quarter lead to Pittsburgh Monday for their fourth straight loss and eighth in nine games. Zach Mettenburger played his best game as a pro, averaging 11.0 YPA and registering more touchdowns than turnovers for the first time (although the lone TO was a pick six). The rookie has a great opportunity to build on that against Philadelphia's 28th-ranked pass defense (263.0 YPG). Justin Hunter remains a non-factor most every week, catching only 23 passes on 54 targets thus far. Targeted over five times just once the past seven games, Hunter has no more than four catches in any this season. Still without upside, but Kendall Wright has at least 53 yards in each of his last four. Delanie Walker, eighth amongst TE despite a mere 22 points since Week 5 (six games), should clear concussion protocol after missing Week 11. Bishop Sankey scored for the first time in six weeks in probably his best outing as starter. However, Sankey was held under 4.0 YPC for the sixth straight time despite averaging 13 carries over that span. ... Eagles got handled in Green Bay, beaten soundly in all three phases. Now tied with Dallas atop the NFC East, look for Philly to bounce back in a big way against the lowly Titans. Old habits die hard for Mark Sanchez, who's turned it over six times in three games. He topped 330 yards in consecutive games and averages a terrific 8.5 YPA, but needs to hang onto the football (five fumbles last two weeks; lost two). Sanchez sure does love him some Jordan Matthews, who topped the century mark for the second time in as many weeks (12-245-3 on 17 targets in those two). No. 4 WR Jeremy Maclin is on pace for 91.2 receptions, 14.4 touchdowns, and 1,473.6 yards-which would better Desean Jackson's 2013 numbers across the board. Maclin scored at least 15 points for the third time in four games, totaling 75 over that stretch. Titans are underrated against the pass, ranking ninth (226.9 YPG). Although sixth in rushing, LeSean McCoy can't seem to get out of second gear. Volume is there with 19-plus carries in eight of 10, but McCoy averages 3.7 YPC and topped 4.0 just twice so far. Fortunately TEN can't stop the run, allowing 143.5 YPG (31st in NFL). Not amassing receptions like he did in NO (23 on season), Darren Sproles isn't getting enough touches to be fantasy-relevant.
Predictions: LeSean McCoy breaks out with 148 yards and two touchdowns. Mark Sanchez plays turnover-free, connecting with Jeremy Maclin six times for 94 yards and a score. Limited to 11 touches due to trailing throughout, Bishop Sankey manages a paltry 39 yards. Justin Hunter gets behind the safety for a 61-yard TD. Eagles, a great survivor pool pick, rebound from the 53-20 thrashing. Philadelphia, 31-14.
Detroit (+7) at New England, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Lions had their four-game win streak snapped by Arizona with the offense unable to get off the ground. Matthew Stafford failed to throw a touchdown after three straight multi-score games. His 183 yards were a season low and five points were second fewest this year; not to mention that Patriot pass defense isn't exactly a walk in the park. Since that 49-yard TD on his first reception back, Calvin Johnson has 123 yards on 26 targets (4.7 YPT). Those were two of the toughest matchups out there (Grimes/MIA, Peterson/AZ), but Megatron is supposed to be matchup-proof and things don't get easier with the best corner in football, Darrelle Revis, up next. Sixth-leading receiver Golden Tate failed to catch at least five passes for the first time, hauling in just two in AZ. Interestingly, those were his only targets last week after seeing 13 in Johnson's return. No. 11 WR Tate, second amongst all WR in YAC, should be significantly more involved this week. Reggie Bush, who's played in only parts of two games since Week 5, expects to participate Sunday; let me know when he finishes a game. Those 115 total yards signaled the first time Joique Bell reached the century mark in 2014. Patriots are strong against the run, but no team has allowed more receiving touchdowns to RB (6). ... Pats secured their first 8-2 start since 2010 by blasting DEN and IND by 22 points apiece in consecutive weeks. New England, maybe the best team in football right now, averages 40.5 PPG during this six-game winning streak. No. 6 QB Tom Brady, one of the leading MVP candidates, is scoring 24.5 FPPG during the streak, throwing multiple TD in all six. However, he's thrown three picks the last two games after none the previous four and Detroit's fifth-ranked pass defense (221.5 YPG) has allowed quarterback's a 12:12 TD:INT ratio. That catch-and-run by Rob Gronkowski was one of the most incredible touchdowns you'll see all year. Perhaps as important to New England's success as his quarterback, Gronk, leading all TE in yards and points, has 587 yards and six touchdowns over the last six. Brandon LaFell has 53 yards or more in five straight, catching 28 passes over that stretch. Julian Edelman is still searching for his first 100-yard game but caught 14 balls the past two. Jonas Gray, third 200-yard rusher in NE history after the stat correction, became the first player since 1921 to score his first four touchdowns in the same game. However, the Patriots had just three rushing touchdowns all year entering Week 11 and the Lions' run defense (No. 1 in both YPG, 68.8, and YPC, 3.0) held four of their last six opponents backfields' under 60 rushing yards.
Predictions:Calvin Johnson doesn't enjoy his stay on Revis Island, posting a 4-51-0 line on 10 targets. Golden Tate proves too quick for Brandon Browner, snagging seven for 97 and a touch. Bush and Bell combine for 121 total yards and a score. Tom Brady passes for 286 and two TD despite constant pressure. Gronk catches six balls for 109 yards and a TD. Gray can't follow up his big night, rushing for just 42 yards. In the game of the week, Patriots hang on but can't cover the seven. New England, 23-20.
Green Bay (-9.5) at Minnesota, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Green Bay, playing as well as anybody, became just the fifth team in NFL history to drop 50-burgers in consecutive games. Packers have owned the Vikes in recent years, going 8-1-1 in the teams' last 10 meetings. Aaron Rodgers, right there with Brady for MVP, remains third among quarterbacks but closed to within two points of Peyton Manning with his fifth straight game of at least 24 points. Rodgers is first in the NFL with 8.8 YPA (10.7 over last four; each 9.5 or better), a 120.1 passer rating (set NFL record with 122.5 in 2011), and a 28:3 TD:INT ratio. Minnesota is holding opposing QB to 14 FPPG over their last six and Everson Griffen (9.0 sacks, eighth in NFL) is one of the most underrated pass rushers in football (team No. 4 in sacks with 32), but...it's Aaron Rodgers. No. 2 WR Jordy Nelson caught 10 passes for 261 yards and three TD over his last two, registering his fifth 100-yard game against PHI. Nelson is on pace for a career-high 1,596.8 yards with a good chance of matching his 15-TD total from 2011 (nine already). Randall Cobb, sixth amongst WR, eclipsed the century mark for the third time in four games. Cobb, consistent as they come, scored 11 points or more in five straight and eight of 10 games this season. Eddie Lacy moved up to RB7 thanks to at least 13 points in each of his last four (69 total during stretch). Oddly enough, Lacy hasn't received even 15 carries in a game since Week 4 but is already 45 yards ahead of his rookie receiving total. ... Vikings were unable to complete their first three-game win streak since 2012, falling 21-13 in Chicago despite jumping out 10-0. The formula holds true: if Teddy Bridgewater commits a turnover, they lose. Bridgewater has no more than one touchdown in any game and just five (one rushing) this season compared to six interceptions. A product of game flow as the Bears dominated TOP 39:21 and Minny rushed just 16 times as a team, but Jerick McKinnon had just 12 touches and 58 yards, both fewest since becoming the starter after Week 5. McKinnon, who has yet to find the painted area, will be the guy ROS as Adrian Peterson was suspended for the remainder of the 2014 season Monday (upheld Tuesday). Vikings claimed Ben Tate off waivers but his 3.1 YPC is lower than Trent Richardson. Green Bay comes in 29th versus the run at 139.2 YPG, allowing 4.5 YPC (28th). I'm sure Matthew Berry is crying himself to sleep every night about the terrible play of Cordarrelle Patterson, who has no more than two catches or 38 yards in six of his last seven. Playing limited snaps (14/47) in passing situations only, Kyle Rudolph (sports hernia) wasn't targeted in his return but should ramp up his activity level going forward.
Predictions:Kyle Rudolph catches his first touchdown since opening day. McKinnon registers 99 YFS on 15 touches. Just like Week 5, Aaron Rodgers shreds the Vikings for three touchdowns to go along with 312 yards. Jordy Nelson (102 yards) and Randall Cobb (79 yards) both catch one. Eddie Lacy rumbles for 114 yards and a touch on 21 carries. Packers keep rolling; Vikings backdoor cover. Green Bay, 30-21.
Jacksonville (+14) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: After losing by one score (or winning) their previous three, the Jags were beaten by double-digits each of the last three games. In six of his seven starts, Blake Bortles has more interceptions than touchdowns. He's taken 22 sacks in those seven and ranks dead last in Total QBR (25.6) and TD:INT ratio (8:14). Bortles, who has yet to crack 100.0 in passer rating, will be without his favorite target ROS with Allen Robinson (foot) placed on IR. TE Marcedes Lewis was activated from the IR/designated to return and might be worth adding if you're in trouble at tight end; he caught eight passes for 105 yards and a TD in two games before the high ankle sprain. With Robinson's injury a path is cleared for their other second-round pick, Marqise Lee, to finally make an impact. Suffering from hamstring injuries all year, Lee has done next to nothing in his rookie season to this point. Cecil Shorts recorded a season-high 119 yards against Dallas before the bye, his second 100-yard game, but hasn't found the end zone since Week 3. Denard Robinson failed to reach 100 total yards for the first time in four games but scored twice for the first time in his career. Robinson has 389 rushing yards (419 total) on 72 carries for 5.4 YPC and four TD over four games as lead back and IND ranks 30th in YPC allowed (4.6). ... Drubbed by 17 or more for the second time in three games, the Colts division lead shrunk to a single game over Houston. After allowing 117 points their first seven games (19.4 PPG), Indy surrendered 136 (39.0 per) over these last three. Fortunately, they're still No. 1 in total and passing offense, and blasted the Jaguars 44-17 in Jacksonville their first meeting. Top fantasy QB Andrew Luck managed at least 300 yards through the air for the eighth consecutive time, just one short of tying Brees' NFL record. Luck is the only quarterback to score at least two touchdowns and 18 points every game. T.Y. Hilton failed to reach 65 receiving yards for the first time since Week 1 in his worst outing of 2014. Still 10th amongst WR but, after averaging 6.6 receptions and 108.3 yards through eight games, Hilton totaled only six for 95 combined the last two. Following a four-game stretch where he managed just 11 points altogether, Reggie Wayne scored 22 over the last two weeks. Interestingly enough, the Colts are supporting two top-10 fantasy tight ends. With Dwayne Allen, who ranks second among qualifying tight ends with 14.4 YPC, iffy with an ankle injury, Coby Fleener should be a top-five option this week. Fleener has 13 points or more each of his last two while Allen scored in seven of his first nine games this season. 30th-ranked fantasy RB Trent Richardson likely becomes the bellcow after the Ahmad Bradshaw injury (IR, fractured fibula). Richardson saw just 14 carries the past three games (netting five fantasy points) but rushed at least 14 times in three of his previous four, each resulting in 10-plus points. These last six weeks may be his last chance to prove himself; JAX, amazingly seventh in sacks (28) despite always trailing, ranks 26th against the run (126.2) and next to last in scoring defense (28.2 PPG).
Predictions:Denard Robinson totals 91 yards (73 rushing). Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts both top 70 yards receiving and score. Andrew Luck notches his record-tying ninth straight 300-yard game, throwing touchdowns to Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener. Trent Richardson loves being the workhorse, stepping up with 102 yards and two TD on 24 carries, his first 100-yard effort since Week 9 of 2012. Colts bounce back, but 14 is a big number, even at home. Indianapolis, 30-17.
Cincinnati (+1.5) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: The highly inconsistent reclaimed first place in the AFC North by dominating in New Orleans a week after getting blasted by the Browns at home. The key seems to be Andy Dalton and the offense as they are 5-0-1 when gaining 350 yards or more. Dalton rebounded from the Thursday nightmare for his best game of 2014, scoring 20-plus and three touchdowns for the first time. Red Rifle averages just 186.2 YPG over his last five but Houston's 30th-ranked pass defense allows 278.1. After his third 100-yard game, A.J. Green has now cracked double digits in five of six finished games, scoring 69 points in those five. Mohamed Sanu, still a top-15 WR on the year, registered just five receptions for 43 yards (two points in each) the past two games; averaged 78.5 yards on 4.9 catches through eight games. Dream matchup for those two with Houston allowing more FPPG (26.8) to WR than any team in football. Although he scored his first two TD that was the first time Jermaine Gresham topped six points. Giovani Bernard (hip) is expected to play after practicing Wednesday for the first time in weeks. Jeremy Hill, 14th in RB scoring, vaulted above Bernard (16th) with 150-plus rushing yards in two of his past three (60-plus yard runs in both). Hill scored 46 points in three games as lead back, warranting closer to a 50-50 split. ... Texans got back to .500 with their second win in three games, both by at least 14 points. Ryan Mallett wasn't asked to do much but delivered a solid performance in his first career start (one completion in first three seasons). Bengals pass defense is first in TD (11), fourth in passer rating (79.2), and fifth in YPA (6.5). Andre Johnson tied his season high with seven catches against Cleveland, but converts just 59.8-percent of targets overall, lowest reception rate since 2009. Johnson, whose 6.9 YPT would be worst in a decade, has merely one touchdown and five RZ receptions all year long. No. 17 WR DeAndre Hopkins, one of the most consistent receivers in football, has 60-plus yards and at least eight points in eight of 10 games. Hopkins is just six receptions and 38 yards shy of his rookie numbers (doubled TD total already) but no team has allowed fewer receptions or yards to WR than Cincy. Alfred Blue (36/156 last week) returns to the bench with Arian Foster scheduled to suit up. Foster, fifth in points despite missing two games, has 120 points (24.0 per) his last five games and Bengals allow the sixth-most fantasy points to RB (20.5) and fifth-most rushing yards (136.2).
Predictions:Arian Foster, the NFL's third-leading rusher, controls the game with 113 yards and a TD. Andre Johnson posts 8-89-2, doubling his season TD total. Splitting time, Bernard and Hill combine for 147 total yards and two touchdowns. Nobody can stop A.J. Green, who finishes with eight grabs for 127 yards and a score. Bengals are the better team, but Texans have won all three meetings since 2011 (two in playoffs). Houston, 24-21.
New York Jets (+4.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, at Detroit
Comments: Jets forced more turnovers (4) against Pittsburgh than they had all year up to that point (3) to snap an eight-game skid, their first win since opening day. While certainly not the Michael Vick of old, he's proven a significant upgrade over Geno Smith. Vick hasn't thrown an interception in either of his starts with a passer rating higher than 105.0 in both; whereas Smith threw 10 picks in eight starts (at least one in seven of those) and didn't reach 100.0 once. However, Vick hasn't cracked 200 passing yards yet and the Bills' seventh-ranked pass defense allows just 222.6 YPG. Percy Harvin has at least seven touches and 50 YFS in all three games as a Jet, 28 for 243 total. Eric Decker has yet to exceed 74 yards in any game, averaging 6.7 YPT compared to 9.5/8.7 his last two years in Denver. The Jets drafted Stephen Hill two picks before Alshon Jeffery went off the board and Shaq Evans three selections ahead of Martavis Bryant; no wonder they're calling for John Idzik's firing. Chris Ivory averages just 3.3 YPC over his last two games, scoring five points or fewer in each. Chris Johnson (5.1 YPC his last two) got the start against Pittsburgh following his season-high 101 total yards versus KC, but touched it only eight times in that game. Buffalo's run defense ranks ninth in yards (99.0) and 10th in YPC (3.9) but heading in the wrong direction, allowing 451 rushing yards and four TD to opposing RB the past four weeks. Jets give up 8.6 FPPG to opposing defenses (seventh-most) while Buffalo's D/ST has at least nine points in four straight, five of six, and seven of their last nine. ... Bills haven't scored a touchdown in their last 115 minutes of game time but already have their most road wins (3) since 2009 and started 20 drives in opposing territory, most in NFL. Put simply, they need to improve in the red zone, ranking last in RZ TD percentage (41.2) and finding the end zone on just one of their last nine trips inside the 20 (0/6 last two games). Kyle Orton hasn't committed a turnover in three straight, but averages just 5.2 YPA with just one touchdown the last two games. However, Jets rank dead last in pass TD (25), TD:INT ratio (25:3), and FPPG allowed to opposing QB (19.9). Sammy Watkins has seven receptions for 59 yards combined his last couple games (five points) compared to 12-279-3 (45 points) the previous two. Given two weeks to rest, Fred Jackson (groin) will return to his featured role. Bryce Brown caught 13 passes for 122 yards (at least six and 57 in each) in two games with Jackson out/limited, scoring well in PPR formats. The matchup is brutal with the Jets' run defense ranked fourth in YPG (83.2) and third in YPC (3.4).
Predictions: With the blizzard in Buffalo, the game was moved to Detroit. Jets finish with more yards rushing than passing. Chris Ivory and Fred Jackson score the only touchdowns, both top 75 yards. Buffalo's defense, first in sacks (39, six more than second) and third in fantasy points, is No. 1 D/ST Week 12 as Bills snap a two-game losing streak. Buffalo, 13-7.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Bucs lost five in a row before a 27-7 beatdown of the Redskins in Washington. Amazingly, TB is just two games out of first despite winning twice all year. All of a sudden Josh McCown has real value in two-QB leagues, averaging 17 FPPG in four full games. McCown has multiple touchdowns and 19 points in consecutive weeks, throwing for at least 288 yards in both. Bears allow 19.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, third-most in the league. Mike Evans became the youngest receiver in NFL history with a 200-yard game (21 years, 88 days). Evans is en fuego with a 21-458-5 line the past three weeks (152.7 YPG), netting 74 points (24.7 FPPG). He became the first rookie with three straight games of at least 7-100-1, vaulting all the way to ninth in WR scoring. Vincent Jackson was targeted a season-low four times against WSH after 12-plus targets his previous two (at least six catches and 75 yards in each). Charles Sims was held under 3.0 YPC and 45 YFS in each of his first two games. Bobby Rainey did no better, averaging 1.6 yards on his 11 carries during that time. I remain steadfast in my belief Doug Martin wasn't the problem. ... Bears defense finally found their dignity, holding the Vikings to 13 points after giving up 106 points over their previous two (50-plus in each). Jay Cutler was completing 31-percent of passes 15 yards or more downfield (30th of 32 qualified passers) prior to last week. Cutler threw much better deep but still couldn't avoid the turnover, committing two more for his fourth straight multi-TO game. That being said, fantasy's No. 8 QB has at least 21 points in four of his last six. Brandon Marshall shook off the ankle injury for his second consecutive game of 17-plus points. Marshall, 13th amongst WR, posted 15-202-3 (38 points) over those two with at least seven receptions and 90 yards in each. Alshon Jeffery, just three spots below his running mate, put up a season-high 19 points and scored in double figures six of his last eight. Anticipate those trends continuing with Tampa allowing 26.4 FPPG to WR, second-most in the league. No idea how Martellus Bennett is a top-six TE given his one touchdown the last seven games and 5.7-point average the last six. No. 3 RB Matt Forte is a monster, scoring 16 points or better in six of his last seven, amassing 1,027 total yards (146.7 per) over that stretch.
Predictions:Josh McCown throws for 322 yards and two TD against the coach that got him paid. Mike Evans catches six for 88 and Vincent Jackson five for 106, both score. Jay Cutler shreds TB for 343 yards and three touchdowns. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery both top the century mark and find the end zone. Matt Forte tallies 138 YFS and scores as a receiver. Neither team can play defense (both allow at least 27.9 PPG, 30th and 32nd in scoring) but Bears have better weapons. Lovie Smith comes up short against his former squad. Chicago, 27-20.
Arizona (+6.5) at Seattle, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: At 9-1, Arizona owns their best record since 1948, a six-game winning streak, and a stranglehold on the top seed in NFC. Drew Stanton, the only QB in history to back up three No. 1 overall picks, threw his first two interceptions against Detroit but notched his first career 300-yard game. Seattle ranks third in pass defense (215.3 YPG) but intercepted just six passes all year (28 in 2013). Larry Fitzgerald is suffering from a Grade 2 MCL sprain but re-entered against Detroit and hasn't missed a game in seven years. However, it clearly affected him as he finished with just two catches for 33 yards after 342 yards on 21 receptions his previous three. Michael Floyd scored 13 more points (17) than his previous three games combined (4). Don't overreact, though -- those two touchdowns were his only catches of the game. Fitz and Floyd struggled mightily against the Hawks last season, combining for a mere 11 catches and 124 yards in two meetings. Although he's ninth in RB scoring, Andre Ellington rushed 37 times for 65 yards (1.8 YPC) over the last two games and averages 3.4 YPC this season. Seahawks' run D ranks seventh in YPG (90.6) and sixth in YPC (3.4). ... Seattle is the only team to play just one division game thus far, meaning five of their remaining six are against the NFC West. Three back of AZ and outside the playoffs, this is an absolute must-win. Losing Pro Bowl C Max Unger for 3-4 weeks is devastating for easily the league's top rushing attack (No. 1 in both YPC, 5.5, and YPG, 174.2). Russell Wilson hasn't cracked 200 yards passing in four straight and five of six. Wilson has just three pass TD in those four but managed 40 points the past two weeks thanks to big rushing totals (22 points previous two). Arizona ranks 27th in pass defense (263.2 YPG) but opposing QB have a 14:15 TD:INT ratio. No. 2 RB Marshawn Lynch has 77 points his last three games, carrying 21-plus times in all three and eclipsing the century mark the past two. Lynch is on pace for 1,300 on the ground and just shy of 1,700 from scrimmage; both totals would be second only to his 2012 season. Cardinals' third-ranked run defense (80.5 YPG) allows 3.5 YPC (fifth) but Beast Mode boasts a 4.6-yard average, second highest of his career. Doug Baldwin scored his first TD in four games but averages just 7.6 YPC the last three and faces the dynamic duo of Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie.
Predictions: LOB turns back the clock to 2013, intercepting Drew Stanton three times. Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell shut down Floyd and Fitzgerald, who combine for just 71 yards. Andre Ellington carries the offense, tallying 107 YFS and a score. Lynch pounds his way to 82 hard-earned yards and a touch. Russell Wilson manages the game well, adding a TD run of his own to give the Hawks a crucial victory in a defensive struggle. Seattle, 17-14.
St. Louis (+4.5) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Rams have won three of their last five to improve to 4-6, scoring victories against SEA, SF, and DEN (Colts only team to accomplish that feat in 2013). This team is nearly impossible to figure out as they either show up and knock off a great team or get handled in ugly fashion. Tre Mason notched his first career 100-yard game but has been held under 4.0 YPC his last three and averages merely 1.4 yards after contact per rush since Week 7 (31st of 41 qualifying RB over span). Mason is getting 17.4 carries since taking over the leading role, 14 or more in four of the five. Kenny Britt recorded his first 100-yard game since 2012; he had just 96 yards all of last season. However, those four catches were the most since Week 3 and Britt has no more than seven targets in any game despite averaging 9.4 YPT. Although both are supremely talented, Tavon Austin continues to be non-existent and Jared Cook unreliable in that offense. Back behind center for the first time since Week 1, Shaun Hill won for first time as starter since 2010. Wouldn't expect a repeat performance as SD ranks ninth total defense (222.4 YPG) and sixth against the pass (331.4). ... Chargers scored just 13 points their past two games after averaging 25.6 through eight. Fortunately, they stopped the bleeding with their first win since Week 6 (both against OAK). Although ninth in QB scoring, Philip Rivers is drowning right now with eight points combined his last two games. Rivers has one TD to four TO in those contests and the Rams D-line is just now waking up with 18 of their 19 sacks coming the last five weeks (at least two in each). Keenan Allen is doing absolutely nothing with his opportunities, averaging less than 10.0 YPC in seven of 10 games (13.5 is single-game high). He's gaining less than half the YAC/reception he did a season ago (6.2 to 3.0). Following a four-game scoring streak (55 points combined), No. 3 TE Antonio Gates hasn't found the painted area in either of his last two (five total points). Ryan Mathews only out-touched Branden Oliver 17-14 his first game back and was spotted limping out of the locker room. Although he looked great in outperforming Oliver (4.4 YPC to 2.8), don't expect him to dominate backfield touches right away.
Predictions:Ryan Mathews slows that Rams pass rush with 84 yards and a 23-yard TD. Philip Rivers tosses two touchdowns (to Antonio Gates and Eddie Royal) during a 276-yard day. Kenny Britt out-produces Keenan Allen (78-63). Tre Mason rushes for 75 yards and scores. Chargers win second in a row following three-game skid. San Diego, 24-16.
Miami (+7) at Denver, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: With their 22-9 victory over Buffalo last Thursday, Dolphins have won four of their last five. MIA has a 57-6 advantage in points off turnovers over their last seven games (5-2 record). However, they've lost the TO battle twice in a row (1:4 combined) after winning that war their previous three (10:3 over that span). Miami is 16-1 when Ryan Tannehill posts a passer rating above 90.0 (8-0 over 100.0) compared to 5-20 if under that mark (1-10 below 70.0). Although his completion percentage (58.3-60.4-65.4) and TD:INT ratio (0.92-1.41-2.14) have gone up the past three years, Tannehill completes just 42-percent of passes under pressure. Mike Wallace remains one of the most improperly utilized players in football, a Desean Jackson-like deep threat that isn't used as such because his quarterback is woefully inaccurate on deep balls. Wallace fell to WR20 with five points or fewer in three of his last four. Doubtful that changes if he continues to be used exclusively underneath against the bigger, more physical Aqib Talib. Jarvis Landry scored in two of his last three, catching at least five balls in each. Charles Clay averages a paltry 8.9 YPC this season. The shoulder injury looks like a thing of the past after watching Lamar Miller against Buffalo, who averaged 5.7 YPC even without Branden Albert (graded out as No. 4 tackle prior to tearing ACL according to PFF). Miller, 13th amongst RB, has at least nine points in seven of his last eight and eight of 10 games overall but DEN ranks second in both YPG (73.4) and YPC (3.3) allowed. ... After scoring just seven points (fewest in Manning era) in defeat to the lowly Rams, Broncos have now lost two of their last three and probably kissed the AFC's No. 1 seed goodbye. No. 2 QB Peyton Manning threw multiple interceptions for a third straight game and failed to score 20 points for the first time all year against STL. Pressure from the Rams' DL the primary reason, something that could happen again here as Cameron Wake has five straight games with a sack. He's still pacing 48 TD with a realistic chance at becoming the only quarterback with multiple 50-TD seasons. Although MIA boasts arguably the best pass defense in the game (first in YPA, 6.1, second in YPG, 208.0, third in passer rating, 77.9), Manning passed for 340-plus yards each of his last three. Demaryius Thomas, third in WR scoring, leads the league in YPG (110.5) courtesy of seven straight 100-yard games (second all-time). With Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) and Julius Thomas (ankle) questionable, Wes Welker will be much more involved (seven points last four games combined). Sanders scored seven TD (previous career high: 6) and 89 points his last five games. Workhorse duties fall on C.J. Anderson with Ronnie Hillman (foot) and Montee Ball (groin) out the next few weeks, but Miami's given up one rushing touchdown to opposing RB the last seven games. Although they are the only D/ST with at least four points every game since Week 3, that streak is over against an angry Broncos offense.
Predictions: A determined Peyton Manning puts up 365 yards and four scores. Demaryius Thomas ties the record with his eighth straight 100-yard effort (Megatron, 2012). Wes Welker returns to fantasy relevance with 8-104-1. Lamar Miller works hard for his 91 yards and a touch. Three Ryan Tannehill turnovers prove costly as Broncos cover. Denver, 34-20.
Washington (+9) at San Francisco, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Redskins could easily be 5-5 but lost winnable games to the Vikings and Buccaneers their last two. In case you didn't hear, Robert Griffin III is "just focusing on San Francisco"; he's made more headlines at the podium than on the football field in recent years. Griffin, who's scored two TD in four starts, has been sacked at least five times in five of his last seven games-inexcusable for an athlete of his caliber. Oh, and LT Trent Williams (sprained MCL) might not be there to protect his blind side against recently-reinstated Aldon Smith. RG3 would've been better off being benched considering San Fran's pass defense is first in INT (16), second in passer rating (74.3), third in YPA (6.3), and fourth in YPG (220.2). Excluding Broncos, not a single receiver has more 100-yard games than No. 13 WR Desean Jackson (5). On the other hand, Pierre Garcon has a meager five points his last three games. Jordan Reed tweaked his right hamstring (left hammy pull cost him four games already); feel free to drop him because that kid will never stay healthy. Alfred Morris averages 91.0 YPG in Griffin's four starts, scoring four TD and 63 points in those contests. The six other games, Morris averages 56.2 yards with two touchdowns and 47 points. It's evident he's aided by the mobile QB, but SF allows fourth-fewest FPPG (12.2) to opposing RB. ... Niners have won two straight following their two-game skid, back even with SEA at 6-4. QB12 Colin Kaepernick is averaging just 12.0 FPPG the past four weeks, throwing just one TD each game. Lack of rushing touchdowns being the main reason-Kaepernick entered the season with 13 in 29 career starts (including playoffs) from 2012-13 but has yet to run for a score this year. With just two games over 250 yards passing and three multi-TD games, its clear Kaep needs to improve as a passer. Anquan Boldin, 24th in WR scoring, has at least five receptions and 50 yards in five straight (55 points during stretch). Vernon Davis is on pace for a pathetic 13 first downs (eight in 10 games) a season after he scored 12 touchdowns! Michael Crabtree's yards and fantasy points have increased three straight weeks but still ranks 33rd at his position and has a season high of 85 yards. Frank Gore averaged 21 carries for 88 yards his last two games, but remains one point behind Matt Asiata on the season and Washington surprisingly is a top-10 run defense (104.2 YPG).
Predictions:Robert Griffin is sacked six times and intercepted twice during a miserable day. Alfred Morris manages a paltry 46 yards on 17 carries. D-Jack totals 87 yards while Pierre Garcon scores their only touchdown. Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin each finish with 75 yards, Frank Gore 81. Accounting for 347 yards and three TD (69 and two rushing), Colin Kaepernick goes off for 30 points, his best game of 2014. Nine points seems like a lot for such an inept offensive club; 49ers dominate but Skins cover. San Francisco, 21-13.
Dallas (-3.5) at New York Giants, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Cowboys, the only team without a road loss this season (4-0 away from Jerry World), are tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East at 7-3 and have won three straight and four of five against New York. With Doug Free back, the best offensive line in football is getting healthy at the right time. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray is the only player over 1k rushing yards at 1,233. Outside of the Arizona game (held to 90 total yards), Murray averages 158.2 YFS; CJ2K averaged 156.8 in 2009 record season. He's been 5.1 YPC or better three of four professional seasons and DAL is 17-1 when giving him 20-plus carries. Although he hasn't scored in three straight games, Murray faces a Giant defense dead last against the run (145.0 YPG). Just 17th in QB scoring but Tony Romo has three TD and 21 points in two of his last three. Despite being seventh among receivers, you can't help but feel Dez Bryant leaves points on the field. There's only a handful of people on earth that can amass 6-158-2 in one quarter-he's more than capable of becoming the top fantasy wideout. Bryant has 18 catches (nine in each) for 237 yards his last two games against NY and that secondary is depleted; he should have a monster day. ... Giants, who've lost all seven games against teams over .500, secured their worst 10-game start since 1998 at 3-7. On the bright side, they finally lost a game by single digits. Eli Manning threw a career-high five picks against San Fran in his third outing with six points or fewer. Manning has two touchdowns (one in each) and seven turnovers the past two weeks. Odell Beckham has at least six receptions, nine targets, and 93 yards each of his last three with 21-33-357 total over that span (oddly, no TD). Even I have to admit Rueben Randle finally had a good game, but still averages 5.5 YPT and is not worthy of his 84 targets the past eight games. Touchdown-dependant Larry Donnell, eighth amongst TE, scored in two of his last three but just 105 yards combined over that stretch. Rashad Jennings was averaging 101 total YPG prior to the MCL sprain (fourth in NFL, trailed only Murray, Bell, Forte) but averages just 63.7 over his last three games (zero TD, all six points or fewer).
Predictions:Dez Bryant dominates the G-Men once again, snagging eight for 139 and two scores. DeMarco Murray's quest for 2k continues with 129 yards and a touch. Tony Romo outduels Eli Manning, playing turnover-free while his counterpart commits two. Rashad Jennings finds the end zone en route to 109 YFS. Six receptions and 99 more yards for Beckham but Giants suffer their sixth straight defeat. Dallas, 27-23.
Baltimore (+3.5) at New Orleans, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Ravens toppled the Titans, 21-7, to halt a two-game skid heading into the bye. BAL has at least one takeaway in seven straight games. No. 14 QB Joe Flacco scored just 46 points his last four, posting a 5:5 TD:INT ratio over that stretch. Torrey Smith has as many touchdowns (5) his last five games as he did in previous 22 combined despite averaging only 5.4 targets per. It's quite clear he's the best receiver in Baltimore as Steve Smith has merely seven points the past three games and six or fewer in five of his last six (including four straight). A solid TE2, Owen Daniels caught at least five passes for 50 yards in three of his last four. Those who drafted Ray Rice as your RB2-3 have to be irritated with the success of Justin Forsett, who is eighth among running backs. Forsett is one of the most consistent players in fantasy, scoring nine-plus points in seven straight and 91 total over that stretch (13.0 per). ... After winning their previous 20 at home (including playoffs), Saints have dropped back-to-back games inside the Superdome and into a first-place tie with Atlanta. Although seventh amongst QB, Drew Brees has severely disappointed with just two 20-point games. Brees turned it over five times the last three while tossing just five touchdowns, one or fewer in two of those. After four straight 300-yard games, hasn't reached that mark in three straight but gets to pick on a Jimmy Smith-less secondary (IR). TE5 Jimmy Graham held to two points by the Bengals after scoring 34 his previous three, at least 11 in each. Marques Colston, who hasn't topped 56 yards in four straight, and Kenny Stills will see more targets with Brandin Cooks (broken thumb) sidelined 4-6 weeks. Mark Ingram has by far the most carries in the league the past four weeks (at least 23 in each), eclipsing the century mark three times en route to 459 yards. Ingram has an uphill climb against The Ravens defense allows the fewest points to RB (10.6).
Predictions: Vintage Drew Brees Monday night, passing for 332 yards and three scores. Jimmy Graham hauls in eight passes for 110 yards and two TD. Ravens make life miserable on Mark Ingram, who manages only 67 yards on 20 carries but scores from the one. Joe Flacco passes for 289 yards and touchdowns to the Smiths. Justin Forsett tallies 107 YFS and finds the end zone. Saints can't lose three in a row in the dome. New Orleans, 28-24.
