NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down the Christmas Games

Pittsburgh at Houston (+9), 45.0 o/u – Monday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The NFL's infuriatingly byzantine catch rules are such a joke that it barely makes a ripple in the news any more when they result in a call that could potentially decide the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The worst part of Jesse James' non-touchdown last week, at least for me, was that the exact same play would have been ruled a score if the pass had been thrown to Le'Veon Bell behind the line of scrimmage (making it a running play, which means it's a TD as soon as the ball scrapes the goal lone) as opposed to it being a forward pass to James (making it subject to "completing the process of the catch" nonsense, even in the end zone). The Steelers now have to deal with the loss of Antonio Brown as well as a possible road game in Foxboro to get to the Super Bowl, but at least they get a great opponent to test run their new target tree against. The Texans' defense is a mess, and when QBs like Bortles and Garoppolo are torching you, it's fair to be worried about what kind of numbers Ben Roethlisberger will post against you, even without his favorite downfield option. As for the Houston offense? Well, Deshaun Watson still leads the team in passing yards, and he only played six and a half games this year.

The Skinny:
•2017 PIT offense: 24.6 PPG (9th), 102.8 rushing yds/gm (21st), 290.6 passing yds/gm (2nd), 21 sacks allowed (T-4th), 18 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 HOU offense: 22.8 PPG (14th), 112.9 rushing yds/gm (15th), 243.9 passing yds/gm (16th), 45 sacks allowed (29th), 25 turnovers (29th)
•2017 PIT defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (7th), 101.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 228.8 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 43 sacks (T-3rd),
•2017 HOU defense: 27.1 PPG allowed (32nd), 106.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 261.4 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 31 sacks (T-20th),
•Roethlisberger career stats versus HOU, four games: 3-1, 67.3 percent completion rate, 215.5 passing yds/gm, 6:1 TD:INT, 8.8 YPA, 111.0 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Le'Veon Bell piles up 130 combined yards and two TDs. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting James and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Lamar Miller manages 60 yards. T.J. Yates throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off three times, but does get a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. Steelers, 37-7

Oakland (+9) at Philadelphia, 47.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The hilarious thing about the Raiders' swoon to close out the season is how transparent their offensive woes seem on the surface. Derek Carr has an 8.4 YPA when he throws the ball 30 times or less this season, and 6.1 YPA when he chucks it more than 30 times. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch has had four of his five best YPC games of the year in five contests since Oakland's Week 10 bye, and gives every appearance of finally re-emerging in his final Beast Mode form to close out the year. So naturally, Carr has attempted 115 passes over the last three games while Lynch has only 40 totes with their season on the line. Good job, OC Todd Downing. The Eagles, meanwhile, are just biding their time until the playoffs starts, as they have the NFC East locked up and very nearly home-field throughout the NFC playoffs too. Nick Foles looked great in lighting up the Giants last week, and it's hard to imagine the Raiders' toothless secondary putting up any more of a fight, but the team probably wishes he had a chance for a stiffer test. Week 17's tilt against the Cowboys will put them in the position of choosing between ensuring Foles stays healthy, or risking injury but keeping him from having a two-week layoff before they really need him to be sharp.

The Skinny:
•2017 OAK offense: 20.1 PPG (22nd), 93.7 rushing yds/gm (25th), 241.3 passing yds/gm (17th), 21 sacks allowed (T-4th), 21 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 PHI offense: 31.3 PPG (T-1st), 140.5 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 259.4 passing yds/gm (11th), 31 sacks allowed (T-12th), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.1 PPG allowed (19th), 110.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 249.7 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 28 sacks (T-22nd),
•2017 PHI defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (8th), 71.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 254.6 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 36 sacks (T-10th),
•Key injuries, OAK: WR Amari Cooper (ankle, questionable), LB Bruce Irvin (concussion, questionable); PHI: LB Mychal Kendricks (foot, questionable), CB Jalen Mills (ankle, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 14 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lynch bangs out 60 yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jared Cook. Jay Ajayi piles up 100 combined yards and a score, while Corey Clement adds a TD as well. Foles throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. Eagles, 31-17

Detroit at Cincinnati (+4.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Time to cue up Al Pacino's "inches" speech from Any Given Sunday. Remember back in Week 3, when Golden Tate's apparent game-winning TD got overturned and the Lions never got a chance to run another play because of a really dumb rule? Well, now the Lions have the Falcons between them and a wild-card spot, with Atlanta holding both a one-game edge and the tiebreaker, as a result of that lost inch. Detroit isn't eliminated, but they'll need to win out and get an awful lot of help to make the postseason. Fortunately, the first part doesn't look too tough with the Bengals playing some wretched football to close out Marvin Lewis' tenure as coach. They haven't beaten a playoff-caliber team since Week 5, and that's if you stretch the definition of "playoff-caliber" to include the Bills. The team's offensive line woes have undone Andy Dalton, who has topped a 7.0 YPA just once in the last five games, and while it's probably too late for Cinci to give AJ McCarron a proper look this season, he could continue to get late-game snaps at Dalton's expense.

The Skinny:
•2017 DET offense: 25.6 PPG (7th), 77.4 rushing yds/gm (31st), 281.7 passing yds/gm (3rd), 43 sacks allowed (T-26th), 21 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 CIN offense: 16.6 PPG (29th), 77.0 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 209.0 passing yds/gm (28th), 36 sacks allowed (20th), 21 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 DET defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (25th), 111.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 263.5 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 28 sacks (T-22nd),
•2017 CIN defense: 21.8 PPG allowed (15th), 131.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 232.2 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 38 sacks (T-7th),
•Key injuries, CIN: RB Joe Mixon (concussion, questionable), LB Vontaze Burfict (concussion, questionable), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, questionable), LB Vincent Rey (jaw, questionable), S Shawn Williams (hamstring, questionable), S George Iloka (shoulder, questionable)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Theo Riddick leads the DET backfield with 70 combined yards. Matthew Stafford throws for 270 yards and TDs to Marvin Jones and Eric Ebron. Giovani Bernard gains 80 combined yards, but it's Mixon who gets into the end zone. Dalton throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Brandon LaFell. Bengals, 23-20

Miami (+10.5) at Kansas City, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: In what should have come as a surprise to no one, the erratic Dolphins followed up their huge upset of the Patriots with a dud in Buffalo. Miami could still make the playoffs if they win out and one of the current wild-card teams collapses, but it's a long shot. They do seem to have found their feature back of the future in Kenyan Drake, who's exploded for 447 YFS and two TDs over the last three games, but that's what folks were saying about Jay Ajayi at about this time last year. They'll also have to get through a Chiefs team with a lot on the line to keep their wild-card hopes alive. Kansas City pulled out of their death spiral in the nick of time, and last week's win over the Chargers puts them back in charge of the AFC West. Kareem Hunt's done his part, racking up 344 YFS and three scores over the last two games, both KC wins.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIA offense: 18.0 PPG (26th), 88.3 rushing yds/gm (29th), 231.1 passing yds/gm (19th), 32 sacks allowed (T-16th), 26 turnovers (30th)
•2017 KC offense: 25.6 PPG (6th), 120.7 rushing yds/gm (10th), 267.0 passing yds/gm (7th), 34 sacks allowed (19th), nine turnovers (1st)
•2017 MIA defense: 24.4 PPG allowed (T-26th), 109.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 234.3 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 25 sacks (28th),
•2017 KC defense: 21.6 PPG allowed (14th), 122.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 256.5 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 26 sacks (T-24th),
•Jay Cutler career stats versus KC, five games: 4-1, 65.3 percent completion rate, 267.0 passing yds/gm, 10:4 TD:INT, 7.0 YPA, 94.5 QB rating.
•Key injuries, MIA: WR DeVante Parker (ankle, questionable), CB Cordrea Tankersley (ankle, questionable); KC: TE Travis Kelce (illness, questionable), LB Justin Houston (illness, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 12 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Drake rips off 130 combined yards and a score. Cutler throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. Hunt responds with 150 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Alex Smith throws for 250 yards and two more TDs, hitting Tyreek Hill and Kelce. Chiefs, 31-27

Buffalo (+12) at New England, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: If the season had ended last week, the Bills would have snuck into the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but alas for them there are two more games to go, both against division rivals who they just played within the last month. If they do hold onto their spot, it'll be on the aching knees and back of LeSean McCoy. The veteran RB has 356 YFS and three TDs over the last three games, and gashed the Pats for a 6.2 YPC in Week 13. New England added to their legacy of having refs decide key games in their favor last week, but their sudden offensive "struggles" -- they've scored a paltry-by-their-standards 23.3 PPG over the last three contests – have to be concerning for the coaching staff. Maybe a revenge game from Mike Gillislee, thrust back into action due to Rex Burkhead's injury, might be just the spark they need.

The Skinny:
•2017 BUF offense: 18.9 PPG (23rd), 129.1 rushing yds/gm (6th), 185.8 passing yds/gm (32nd), 37 sacks allowed (T-21st), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 NE offense: 28.2 PPG (4th), 110.6 rushing yds/gm (16th), 300.0 passing yds/gm (1st), 31 sacks allowed (T-12th), 11 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 BUF defense: 21.9 PPG allowed (16th), 122.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 239.2 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 24 sacks (29th),
•2017 NE defense: 19.6 PPG allowed (6th), 122.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 271.9 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 32 sacks (T-16th),
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 NE, average score NE 29-BUF 21, average margin of victory 12 points. None of the last eight games have been decided by less than a converted touchdown, and five of them (including the last three) were decided by two TDs or more.
•Tom Brady career stats versus BUF, 30 games: 27-3, 64.1 percent completion rate, 252.5 passing yds/gm, 66:21 TD:INT, 7.7 YPA, 101.0 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCoy puts together 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Tyrod Taylor throws for less than 200 yards but does find Kelvin Benjamin for a score. Dion Lewis piles up 160 combined yards, but Gillislee vultures two short TDs. Brady throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks. Patriots, 31-17

Cleveland (+6.5) at Chicago, 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The really sad thing about DeShone Kizer's 3.9 YPA last week is that it wasn't even his lowest mark of the season. Browns coach Hue Jackson gave brief thought to yanking Kizer out of the starting lineup again, but with only two games left in this woebegone season, the NFL's mutts will keep staring at the rookie with puppy-dog eyes hoping he shows some flash of upside. His fellow first-year signal caller, Mitchell Trubisky, has begun to do exactly that, although his three-INT performance last week against the Lions put a damper on the growing enthusiasm surrounding him. In what's likely to be a perfectly Bears-ian snowy Christmas Eve game at Soldier Field, his throws could be cut back in favor of Jordan Howard doing his Mr. Plow impression.

The Skinny:
•2017 CLE offense: 14.8 PPG (32nd), 109.7 rushing yds/gm (17th), 217.2 passing yds/gm (24th), 43 sacks allowed (T-26th), 36 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 CHI offense: 16.7 PPG (28th), 118.6 rushing yds/gm (11th), 193.9 passing yds/gm (31st), 33 sacks allowed (18th), 22 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 CLE defense: 25.9 PPG allowed (30th), 96.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 246.4 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 26 sacks (T-24th),
•2017 CHI defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (T-12th), 107.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 234.4 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 39 sacks (6th),
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: CLE, 28th against WR1s (plus 22.4 percent DVOA), 32nd against TEs (plus 31.0 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (plus 20.9 percent DVOA); CHI, 31st against other WRs (plus 30.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, wind less than 10 mph, 60 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Isaiah Crowell runs for 60 yards, while Duke Johnson adds 50 combined yards. Kizer throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but Josh Gordon does turn one short toss into a TD. Howard bangs out 90 yards and a score, while Tarik Cohen also produces 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Trubisky throws for 220 yards and a second TD to Adam Shaheen. Bears, 24-10

Tampa Bay (+10) at Carolina, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: What's wrong with Mike Evans? Sure, he scored a TD last week, but in the three games since Jameis Winston returned to action the Bucs' No. 1 receiver has seen his target volume actually decline, and his 9-137-1 line looks more like one of his better one-game totals from 2016. Winston's running out of alternatives though with O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson out and Cameron Brate banged up, so he might have to send double-digit passes Evans' way again in this one whether he likes it or not. The Panthers haven't officially locked up a playoff spot yet, but they're as good as in. The question is what seed they'll get, as everything from a first-round bye to a road Wild-Card Round game against a very tough opponent is still in play. Christian McCaffrey teased another breakout last week, topping 100 YFS for just the second time this year, and if he finally catches fire for good it would go a long way towards establishing a better postseason scenario for Carolina.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 20.4 PPG (T-20th), 91.0 rushing yds/gm (27th), 276.9 passing yds/gm (4th), 32 sacks allowed (T-16th), 21 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 CAR offense: 23.6 PPG (12th), 135.7 rushing yds/gm (4th), 212.8 passing yds/gm (26th), 31 sacks allowed (T-12th), 18 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 TB defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (22nd), 119.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 278.6 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 18 sacks (32nd),
•2017 CAR defense: 20.4 PPG allowed (11th), 91.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 234.6 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 43 sacks (T-3rd),
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 CAR, average score CAR 23-TB 15, average margin of victory 11 points. None of TB's wins have been by more than six points, while five of CAR's seven wins have been by two scores or more.
•Cam Newton career stats versus TB, 10 games: 7-3, 63.0 percent completion rate, 222.2 passing yds/gm, 16:8 TD:INT, 8.1 YPA, 95.8 QB rating, 39.2 rushing yds/gm, eight rushing TDs.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peyton Barber manages only 40 combined yards. Winston throws for 240 yards and a TDs to Evans and Chris Godwin. McCaffrey gains 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Newton throws for 230 yards and a score to Devin Funchess while running for 50 yards and a TD of his own. Panthers 27-20

Atlanta (+5.5) at New Orleans, 52.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: A lot's riding on this one. For one thing, a Falcons win here would put then into a tie with the Saints and give them a season sweep over New Orleans, a huge tiebreaking advantage if it becomes necessary to untangle the knot at the top of the NFC South. For another, it would actually make the path to the postseason a bit brighter for the winner of the Seahawks-Cowboys game – both teams lost to Atlanta earlier in the year, so they'd much rather see the Falcons win their division and get out of the wild-card picture. Of course, the Saints aren't just going to roll over, as a win for them locks up a playoff spot. This one should play out a little differently as well, as both Alvin Kamara and Tevin Coleman were injured in the first meeting but are back in action.

The Skinny:
•2017 ATL offense: 22.7 PPG (15th), 122.9 rushing yds/gm (8th), 252.9 passing yds/gm (15th), 18 sacks allowed (3rd), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 NO offense: 28.6 PPG (3rd), 135.1 rushing yds/gm (5th), 275.0 passing yds/gm (6th), 17 sacks allowed (T-1st), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 ATL defense: 20.1 PPG allowed (T-9th), 106.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 236.1 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 36 sacks (T-10th),
•2017 NO defense: 20.1 PPG allowed (T-9th), 115.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 230.9 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 35 sacks (T-13th),
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 ATL, with ATL winning three straight. Average score ATL 26-NO 24, average margin of victory seven points.
•Matt Ryan career stats versus NO, 18 games: 8-10, 64.8 percent completion rate, 295.3 passing yds/gm, 31:11 TD:INT, 7.8 YPA, 97.2 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman picks up 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, while Coleman adds 60 combined yards. Ryan throws for 330 yards and two more TDs to Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. Mark Ingram racks up 120 combined yards and a score, with Alvin Kamara providing 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Drew Brees throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to Ted Ginn. Saints, 34-27

Denver (+3.5) at Washington, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Like clockwork, a QB has emerged in Denver to play Lucy to the fan base's Charlie Brown. Brock Osweiler isn't the answer, but the Colts are bad enough at asking questions that he looked pretty good against them last week, so here he is in the starting lineup again. Washington has the opposite problem – they've got a solid quarterback under center, but are running out of supporting cast for him. A rash of injuries along the offensive line have forced Vernon Davis to stay in and block, curtailing what had been a promising career revival as a receiver, and now Samaje Perine and Jamison Crowder are limping too.

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 18.1 PPG (24th), 113.1 rushing yds/gm (14th), 230.1 passing yds/gm (20th), 36 sacks allowed (20th), 28 turnovers (31st)
•2017 WAS offense: 21.8 PPG (18th), 92.9 rushing yds/gm (26th), 259.7 passing yds/gm (10th), 38 sacks allowed (23rd), 22 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 DEN defense: 23.4 PPG allowed (20th), 88.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 200.1 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 31 sacks (T-20th),
•2017 WAS defense: 25.6 PPG allowed (29th), 123.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 240.5 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 36 sacks (T-10th),
•Key injuries, DEN: WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, questionable); WAS: Samaje Perine (groin, questionable), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring, questionable), LB Zach Brown (various lower body, out), four O-lineman including LT Trent Williams on IR
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DEN, second against WR1s (minus 38.4 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (plus 40.2 percent DVOA); WAS, 28th against WR2s (plus 32.8 percent DVOA), second against other WRs (minus 25.8 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: C.J. Anderson runs for 80 yards and a TD. Osweiler throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Cody Latimer. Kapri Bibbs leads the WAS backfield with 60 combined yards. Cousins throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Ryan Grant. Washington, 19-17

L.A. Rams at Tennessee (+6.5), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: With a two-game bulge on the Seahawks, the Rams have all but clinched their first NFC West title since 2003, which was the last gasp for the Greatest Show On Turf era of the franchise. Last week's emphatic beatdown of their rivals in Seattle also may have spelled the end of the Legion of Boom era for the 'Hawks, and leaves the Rams perfectly set up for a textbook let-down game on the road against a far inferior foe. Of course, that would require the Titans to do something positive to win the game as opposed to hoping Los Angeles just loses it. Tennessee may currently hold the fifth seed in the AFC and could in theory still overtake the Jaguars in the AFC South, but consecutive losses to the Cardinals and 49ers probably have them wishing the regular season was over already. Marcus Mariota has pretty clearly not been 100 percent – just 47 rushing yards over his last five games combined is a big clue – and any mobility issues on his part are going to paint a big bullseye on his back for Aaron Donald and company.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAR offense: 31.3 PPG (T-1st), 123.9 rushing yds/gm (7th), 253.8 passing yds/gm (14th), 24 sacks allowed (8th), 18 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 TEN offense: 21.1 PPG (19th), 115.7 rushing yds/gm (13th), 213.2 passing yds/gm (25th), 31 sacks allowed (T-12th), 23 turnovers (28th)
•2017 LAR defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (5th), 120.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 230.9 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 47 sacks (2nd),
•2017 TEN defense: 22.8 PPG allowed (18th), 87.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 260.1 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 40 sacks (5th),
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: LAR, third against WR2s (minus 30.2 percent DVOA), fourth against other WRs (minus 23.2 percent DVOA); TEN, 32nd against WR2s (plus 43.3 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 22.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Todd Gurley gains 110 combined yards and a TD. Jared Goff throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. DeMarco Murray picks up 80 yards and a score. Mariota throws for 230 yards and a TD to Rishard Matthews but gets picked off twice. Rams, 24-20

L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Jets (+7), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Chargers' four-game winning streak came to an abrupt end last week, and with it might have gone their shot at the playoffs. They're still alive, both in the AFC West title hunt and in the wild-card picture, and while their closing schedule is friendly enough to get them to nine wins, the loss of Hunter Henry and a back injury suffered by Keenan Allen may have taken most of the steam out of their passing attack. Allen isn't listed on the injury report, but if he's playing at less than 100 percent, it doesn't leave many reliable targets for Philip Rivers. The Jets are Jetsing right to the bitter end – they've won only five games all year, but aside from a gimme against the Browns, the combined record of the other four teams they've beaten is 32-24, and three of them are currently in postseason spots. Oh, and all three of those wins against the Jags, Bills and Chiefs came at MetLife Stadium. Of course, ruining that enticing narrative is the fact that Bryce Petty is now under center for them and not Josh McCown.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAC offense: 22.2 PPG (16th), 99.4 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 276.7 passing yds/gm (5th), 17 sacks allowed (T-1st), 15 turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 NYJ offense: 20.4 PPG (T-20th), 104.6 rushing yds/gm (19th), 225.0 passing yds/gm (23rd), 40 sacks allowed (24th), 21 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 LAC defense: 18.2 PPG allowed (3rd), 128.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 218.2 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 38 sacks (T-7th),
•2017 NYJ defense: 24.4 PPG allowed (T-26th), 117.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 244.2 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 26 sacks (T-24th),
•Philip Rivers career stats versus NYJ, four games: 3-1, 61.7 percent completion rate, 220.5 passing yds/gm, 9:4 TD:INT, 8.2 YPA, 100.3 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon explodes for 160 combined yards and two TDs. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Allen. Bilal Powell gains 90 yards and a score. Petty throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Austin Seferian-Jenkins for a TD. Chargers, 24-20

Jacksonville at San Francisco (+4), 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: The Jags' three-game winning streak actually makes them the hottest team in the AFC right now, which tells you how much of a muddle the conference has been this season. That streak has, shockingly, come thanks to Blake Bortles' arm as much as their elite defense, and the QB has an absurd 9.9 YPA and 7:0 TD:INT over that stretch. Granted, the quality of the opposition has had something to do with that (home games against the Texans and Colts can make anybody look like a Hall of Famer), but Bortles has also put up those numbers mainly while relying on two rookie WRs in Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. Cole, especially, has been incredible, posting a combined 13-334-3 line on only 15 targets and giving Jacksonville a deep threat they'd been lacking all year. Of course, the Niners have their own Jimmy Garoppolo-driven three-game winning streak going. Jimmy G's 8.9 YPA over that stretch is nothing to sneeze at (it's no coincidence both QBs have faced Houston during their hot streaks), although his 2:2 TD:INT is less impressive, and it looks like he might become the first Tom Brady backup to thrive once he was out from under that long shadow. If only he had the Jaguars' defense, or even just their secondary, to back him up.

The Skinny:
•2017 JAC offense: 26.7 PPG (5th), 149.1 rushing yds/gm (1st), 226.9 passing yds/gm (22nd), 21 sacks allowed (T-4th), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 SF offense: 18.1 PPG (25th), 97.3 rushing yds/gm (24th), 264.4 passing yds/gm (8th), 42 sacks allowed (25th), 19 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 JAC defense: 14.9 PPG allowed (1st), 115.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 192.7 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 51 sacks (1st),
•2017 SF defense: 24.1 PPG allowed (T-23rd), 119.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 242.3 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 26 sacks (T-24th),
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: JAC, first against WR1s (minus 59.9 percent DVOA); SF, 27th against WR1s (plus 22.1 percent DVOA), 26th against WR2s (plus 29.5 percent DVOA), 30th against other WRs (plus 25.1 percent DVOA), third against TEs (minus 23.7 percent DVOA), 29th against RBs (plus 20.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette returns and rips off 120 yards and two TDs. Bortles throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Cole. Carlos Hyde manages 70 combined yards. Garoppolo throws for 210 yards and gets picked off twice. Jaguars, 24-6

Seattle (+5) at Dallas, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: A Saints win makes this game a lot less interesting, as it would all but shut both squads out of the playoffs before kickoff, but there's enough pride and recent history here to keep things interesting even if the air gets let out of Jerry World. The Seahawks are stinging after the butt-paddling they suffered last week at the hands of the Rams, but their tattered offensive line finally collapsed around Russell Wilson to the point that not even he could make something happen, and he got sacked an ugly seven times by Los Angeles. The Cowboys also get Ezekiel Elliott back in the fold, and if anybody in the league has something to prove this weekend it's the guy who thinks he had half his season stolen away by Roger Goodell's bumbling tyranny.

The Skinny:
•2017 SEA offense: 22.9 PPG (13th), 103.7 rushing yds/gm (20th), 261.8 passing yds/gm (9th), 37 sacks allowed (T-21st), 17 turnovers (12th)
•2017 DAL offense: 24.0 PPG (11th), 136.6 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 211.9 passing yds/gm (27th), 27 sacks allowed (10th), 18 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 SEA defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (T-12th), 112.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 235.0 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 34 sacks (15th),
•2017 DAL defense: 22.2 PPG allowed (17th), 108.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 248.6 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 32 sacks (T-16th),
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SEA, 30th against WR2s (plus 34.9 percent DVOA), second against TEs (minus 23.7 percent DVOA), third against RBs (minus 26.0 percent DVOA)
•Russell Wilson career stats versus DAL, three games: 2-1, 61.5 percent completion rate, 162.3 passing yds/gm, 2:2 TD:INT, 6.2 YPA, 77.2 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Mike Davis picks up 60 yards, while J.D. McKissic also adds 60 combined yards. Wilson rebounds, throwing for 260 yards and three TDs, one to Paul Richardson and two to Jimmy Graham. Elliott pounds out 130 yards and a touchdown. Dak Prescott throws for 250 yards and scores to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Cowboys, 27-24

N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at Arizona, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: As it stands, the Giants hold the second overall pick in next year's draft, which puts Eli Manning on very thin ice given the expected bounty in rookie QBs who will be strutting their stuff at the 2018 Combine. Firing Ben McAdoo has done nothing to halt their slide, but Eli at least seemed to realize he might be auditioning for other GMs last week when he exploded for 434 passing yards, his best performance since he hung 441 on the Niners in 2015. Of course, the Giants still lost. The Cardinals have already made their own switch under center, as Blaine Gabbert's declining level of performance pretty much forced Bruce Arians' hand. Drew Stanton isn't necessarily any better, but sometimes a change is as good as a rest, as somebody's grandmama used to say. It's really remarkable that Larry Fitzgerald is on the brink of another 1000-yard campaign given who he's had delivering the ball to him all year.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYG offense: 16.3 PPG (30th), 89.0 rushing yds/gm (28th), 234.6 passing yds/gm (18th), 30 sacks allowed (11th), 18 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 ARI offense: 17.6 PPG (27th), 85.4 rushing yds/gm (30th), 257.4 passing yds/gm (12th), 49 sacks allowed (31st), 22 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 NYG defense: 25.4 PPG allowed (28th), 128.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 272.2 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 22 sacks (T-30th),
•2017 ARI defense: 24.1 PPG allowed (T-23rd), 92.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 236.6 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 32 sacks (T-16th),
•Key injuries, NYG: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (finger, questionable), S Landon Collins (ankle, questionable), LB B.J. Goodson (ankle, out); ARI, RB Kerwynn Williams (quad/ribs, questionable), WR John Brown (toe, questionable), LB Karlos Dansby (knee, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Wayne Gallman bangs out 70 combined yards and a TD. Manning throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Sterling Shepard, but also tosses a pick-six to Patrick Peterson. Williams picks up 50 yards, but Elijhaa Penny gains 60 yards and a TD. Stanton throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 21-17

Indianapolis (+13.5) at Baltimore, 41.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Colts currently hold the third slot in next year's draft, which could put them in prime position to benefit with a talent windfall if someone gets the urge to trade up for a quarterback – assuming they don't screw it up by stealing a win in the Irsay Bowl, of course. The Ravens aren't likely to look past them, though, as they remain in a dogfight with the Bills, Titans and Chargers for wild-card spots. Joe Flacco continues his weird resurgence – his three best passing-yard totals of the season have come in the last three games, and his 12 completions of 20 yards or more over that stretch is more than his total from the previous nine games combined – and it seems highly unlikely the sad-sack Indy secondary will be the ones to slow him.

The Skinny:
•2017 IND offense: 16.1 PPG (31st), 101.6 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 206.9 passing yds/gm (29th), 53 sacks allowed (32nd), 15 turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 BAL offense: 24.6 PPG (8th), 116.8 rushing yds/gm (12th), 199.6 passing yds/gm (30th), 25 sacks allowed (9th), 16 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 IND defense: 26.3 PPG allowed (31st), 124.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 267.8 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 22 sacks (T-30th), 19 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 BAL defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (4th), 110.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 233.1 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 38 sacks (T-7th), 33 turnovers (1st)
•Joe Flacco career stats versus IND, four games: 1-3, 67.6 percent completion rate, 239.8 passing yds/gm, 2:6 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 73.7 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: IND, 24th against WR2s (plus 23.9 percent DVOA), 27th against other WRs (plus 21.2 percent DVOA), 32nd against RBs (plus 38.4 percent DVOA); BAL, fourth against WR1s (minus 23.9 percent DVOA), first against WR2s (minus 48.3 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, 33 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Alex Collins scampers for 70 combined yards and a TD, while Javorius Allen adds 50 combined yards and Danny Woodhead catches a touchdown. Flacco throws for 250 yards and a second score to Breshad Perriman. Ravens, 30-3

Minnesota at Green Bay (+9), 41.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Even though they have the NFC Central title locked up, the Vikings still have plenty to play for, as they could yet catch the Eagles for top seed in the conference and still have to fend off a few teams to ensure a first-round bye. That job got a lot easier when the Packers decided there was no reason to subject Aaron Rodgers to further abuse behind a sketchy offensive line, putting Brett Hundley back under center. Hundley will also be without the one receiver he trusts, Davante Adams, due to a concussion. Green Bay does have one thing going for it, though, and that's home-field advantage. The Pack are 5-1-1, plus a playoff victory in 2013, while playing host to the Vikings in the 2010s. Of course, all those wins came with Rodgers at the helm.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIN offense: 24.5 PPG (10th), 121.3 rushing yds/gm (9th), 257.2 passing yds/gm (13th), 22 sacks allowed (7th), 14 turnovers (3rd)
•2017 GB offense: 22.1 PPG (17th), 107.7 rushing yds/gm (18th), 229.2 passing yds/gm (21st), 46 sacks allowed (30th), 19 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 MIN defense: 17.3 PPG allowed (2nd), 85.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 215.8 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 35 sacks (T-13th), 17 turnovers (22nd)
•2017 GB defense: 23.8 PPG allowed (21st), 116.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 255.6 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 32 sacks (T-16th), 22 turnovers (T-8th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4-1 GB (plus 1-0 in postseason), average score GB 27-MIN 22, average margin of victory 10 points.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: MIN, fourth against WR2s (minus 29.0 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 33.7 percent DVOA); GB, 30th against WR1s (plus 25.8 percent DVOA), 27th against WR2s (plus 29.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, 12 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Latavius Murray bangs out 80 yards and a TD, while Jerick McKinnon piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving score of his own. Case Keenum throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Jamaal Williams leads the GB backfield with 40 yards. Hundley throws for 210 yards and runs in a score. Vikings, 31-13

Last week's record: 12-4, 5-8-3 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 140-84, 96-116-12 ATS, 101-119-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS