NFL 2020: Using Vacated Carries to Identify Opportunity

You've probably read fantasy football articles that discuss vacated carries and targets, pinpointing the NFL teams that need to replace a significant portion of their prior-year volume. Here we'll take a slightly different approach, also accounting for 2019 volume that was added from free-agent signings and trade acquisitions.

The numbers alone don't account for incoming draft picks or offseason role changes for veterans, but this at least gives us a framework to discuss some of the more interesting backfields in the league. This week we'll focus on carries and running backs; next week we'll shift to targets and pass catchers.

The Top 5

1. Los Angeles Rams

232 Vacated Carries — Todd Gurley (223), Brandin Cooks (6), Blake Bortles (2), Nick Scott (1)

0 Added Carries

2019 Rush Rate — 38.0 percent (25th)

2019 Carries — 401 (18th)

Todd Gurley's departure singlehandedly puts the Rams at No. 2 in lost rushing volume, and none of their offseason additions took an NFL carry last year. It's a nice situation for second-round pick Cam Akers, who turned 21 last month after serving as a three-year starter for what arguably were the three worst FSU teams of the past 40 years. I'd typically be wary of a prospect who fell shy of 5.0 YPC in college, but Akers came pretty close to that threshold (4.91) and then ran a 4.47 40 at the combine. There are some parallels to David Montgomery, but the 2019 third-round pick was a full year older than Akers coming out of college, sitting on 4.69 YPC and a 4.63 40 time.

Akers will be working with a better coach and a better QB, but his path to steady volume is a bit more difficult than what Montgomery faced last year. Even after a poor rookie season that ended with shoulder surgery, Darrell Henderson should have every opportunity to compete for playing time. Then there's Malcolm Brown, a 27-year-old plodder who has three years of experience in Sean McVay's offense, including a 69-255-5 rushing line (3.9 YPC) as Gurley's backup last year. Of course, it tells us something when a team with as many needs as the Rams uses a second-round pick on a low-priority position like RB. The obvious conclusion is that the Rams expects Akers to be a starter in the near future, perhaps even by Week 1.

• Gurley was T-9th last season with 12 carries inside the 5-yard line, accounting for 54.5 percent of the team total (15th). His six TDs tied for seventh most.
• Gurley ranked No. 5 last season with 29 carries inside the 10-yard line, accounting for 63 percent of the team total (9th). His 11 TDs tied for the league lead.
• Gurley's target share dropped to 8 percent last year, down from 16 percent in 2018 and 18 percent in 2017.
• Last season, Rams RBs accounted for 10 percent of team targets, by far the lowest share in the league (Tennessee was 31st at 14 percent). The number has always been below league-average under McVay, but it was much closer to the middle in 2017 (19.8 percent) and 2018 (17.9 percent).
• Akers averaged 23 catches for 162 yards and 2.3 TDs in three years at FSU.

 2. Los Angeles Chargers

191 Vacated Carries — Melvin Gordon (162), Philip Rivers (12), Troymaine Pope (10), Derek Watt (7)

0 Added Carries 

2019 Rush Rate — 36.7 percent (28th)

2019 Carries — 366 (28th)

There's a clear opportunity for Justin Jackson or fourth-round pick Joshua Kelley to step up, but we'd also do well to remember that Austin Ekeler averaged 14 carries and 47.8 snaps while Melvin Gordon was on holiday last September. While unlikely to repeat the full extent of last year's otherworldly receiving efficiency, Ekeler does have a three-year track record as a pass-catching stud, along with a career mark of 4.8 YPC. He may not be a three-down workhorse, but he's more than just an upscale scatback. There's room from growth beyond last year's 132 carries.

• Despite missing four games, Gordon finished T-7th with 13 carries inside the 5 last year.
• Gordon was T-13th with 20 carries inside the 10.
• Gordon's 55 targets placed 19th among RBs. Ekeler's 108 were good for No. 2.
• The 2019 Chargers led the NFL in RB target share (31.7 percent), up from third place in 2018 (27.9 percent) and 11th in Ekeler's 2017 rookie season (23 percent). (You may have heard that Philip Rivers throws to his running backs a lot!)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

215 Vacated Carries — Peyton Barber (154), Jameis Winston (59), Breshad Perriman (2)

26 Added Carries  — Tom Brady (26)

2019 Rush Rate — 37.7 percent (26th)

2019 Carries — 409 (T-14th)

Ronald Jones vs. Ke'Shawn Vaughn will be one of the most closely watched job battles throughout summer and fall, with most of us picking a side (#TeamRoJo) and hoping our guy emerges with big-time volume. It's also possible we see a carry split, which would be especially problematic if Dare Ogunbowale or Raymond Calais is handling third downs. The Bucs used Ogunbowale as their hurry-up and third-down specialist last year, taking away 46 targets and 11 carries from the Jones-Barber duo.

• Jones took over the starting job Week 9 last year. From that point forward, he averaged 10.9 carries for 45.6 yards and 2.8 catches for 22.2 yards, with four TDs in nine games, i.e., mid-to-low-range RB2 production.
• Barber had a team-high eight carries inside the 5-yard line last year. Ogunbowale had seven, while Jones saw only two. But the stats are perhaps a bit deceiving, considering Ogunbowale got four of those carries in the hurry-up offense late in the fourth quarter of games, while another came on 3rd-and-goal from the 4-yard line. Still, it leaves one to wonder if the Bucs' lead back and goal-line back will be two different people...

4. Buffalo Bills

169 Vacated Carries — Frank Gore (166), Senorise Perry (3)

5 Added Carries  — Stefon Diggs (5)

2019 Rush Rate — 45.7 percent (7th)

2019 Carries — 465 (6th)

Gore actually led the team in carries last year, ahead of Devin Singletary (151 in 12 games) and Josh Allen (109). However, Singletary averaged 16.4 carries and 3.6 targets over his final eight games in the regular season, compared to 8.1 and 0.5 for Gore over the same stretch. The big question then is whether third-round pick Zack Moss will take over Gore's September/October role or his November/December workload? People who expect the former will avoid Singletary in fantasy drafts, while those of us who expect the latter are happy to see the second-year pro dropping to the fifth round.

For what it's worth, I like Moss as a prospect much better than I liked Singletary at the same time last year. But there's no denying that Devin the Dude played really well in 2019, so the Moss pick isn't a death blow for his Year 2 breakout case. Here's an excerpt from my original 2020 Breakout Watch article back in late January:

Singletary had some issues with the stuff that often plagues rookies — four drops and a 52.7 pass-block grade from PFF — but he was an instant revelation on the ground. Among 45 qualified running backs, he placed fourth in yards per carry (5.1), 15th in yards after contact per carry (2.6), fifth in broken tackle rate (one for every 7.6 carries), 13th in rushing DVOA (3.8%) and ninth in PFF's elusive rating (69.6). I tried to find some measure of rushing efficiency or tackle avoidance that cast him in an unfavorable light, but I couldn't come up with anything. 

• Gore took 11 inside-the-5 carries last season. Josh Allen had five, and Singletary got two.
• Singletary put up 13-58-0 on the ground and 6-76-0 receiving in the playoff loss to Houston.
• Moss is coming off three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Utah, including a senior year with a 236-1,415-15 rushing line and 28-388-2 receiving line. A 4.65 40 time is mildly concerning, but he ran it at 5-9, 223. Singletary ran a 4.66 at 5-7, 203, so maybe the Bills are on to something with these short, dense RBs who look explosive in college but then struggle at the combine?

5. Houston Texans  

256 Vacated Carries — Carlos Hyde (245), Taiwan Jones (9), DeAndre Hopkins (2)

103 Added Carries  — David Johnson (94), Brandin Cooks (6), Randall Cobb (3)

2019 Rush Rate — 42.7 percent (10th)

2019 Carries — 434 (12th)

No team underwent more change on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, and no team generated more discussion among football fans. Early ADP results suggest Johnson — coming off the board at RB22 — will be healthier and busier than he was last season, accounting for most of the gap here between the added and vacated carries. Personally, I have my doubts, with DJ now 28 years old and four seasons removed from his last campaign above 3.7 YPC. Duke Johnson is younger, faster and far more agile and elusive, plus he's similarly skilled as a pass catcher. My flag is firmly planted on Duke Island.

• The non-Johnson RBs in Houston are Buddy Howell, Karan Higdon and Scottie Phillips — a 2018 UDFA, a 2019 UDFA and a 2020 UDFA, respectively. They have five NFL carries between them.

The Bottom 5

28. New York Jets

92 Vacated Carries — Bilal Powell (59), Ty Montgomery (32), Robby Anderson (1)

180 Added Carries  — Frank Gore (166), Joe Flacco (12), Breshad Perriman (2)

2019 Rush Rate — 40.1 percent (19th)

2019 Carries — 383 (26th)

Le'Veon Bell drafters are hoping Gore and Lamical Perine simply account for the work handled by Montgomery and Powell last year — and nothing more. That's certainly a possibility, but I'm also wary of Adam Gase being oddly fond of a washed-up Gore. It was only two years ago that Gore piled up a team-high 156 carries in 14 games for Gase's Dolphins. We don't have to worry about Bell's starting job or his role on passing downs, but we do need to worry about goal-line work and total rushing volume. If nothing else, the offseason moves suggest Bell will stick at his 2019 average of 16.3 carriers per game, rather than returning to his 20-plus Pittsburgh days. Odd as it may sound, Bell is a 'floor' pick more so than a 'ceiling' pick at this point.

29. Miami Dolphins

109 Vacated Carries — Mark Walton (53), Kenyan Drake (47), Samaje Perine (5), De'Lance Turner (4)

242 Added Carries — Matt Breida (123), Jordan Howard (119)

2019 Rush Rate — 34.1 percent (31st)

2019 Carries — 349 (32nd)

The Dolphins added far more 2019 carries than they lost, but they also kept a trio of replacement-level RBs — Patrick Laird, Myles Gaskin, Kalen Ballage — that combined for 172 carries last year. Those three might end up competing for a single roster spot, and the winner could essentially be banished to special teams. This sets up as a traditional thunder-and-lightning, two-man backfield split between Howard and Breida, albeit with the possibility of Laird poaching some passing downs. I'm a little worried it ends up looking like the 2019 Tampa backfield, but I can at least imagine an upside scenario for the speedy Breida. 

Howard, on the other hand, is an early down specialist on a team with the fifth-worst Vegas win total (6.0) in the league. The path to RB2 production in his role demands some combination of positive game script, goal-line carries and strong blocking... do you really think Howard will have more than one of those things, if any?

• Miami had the second-lowest run rate on early downs in neutral game situations last year (per ESPN's Bill Barnwell).
• The Dolphins fired OC Chad O'Shea and hired Chan Gailey, reportedly because O'Shea's playbook is too complicated. Maybe O'Shea is overthinking things with his playbook, or maybe the Dolphins are overthinking things by firing a guy whose unit quite clearly outperformed its putrid talent level...
• Gailey's offenses in the NFL, on average, have landed in the 66th percentile for rush attempts and the 69th percentile for rushing yards. But those numbers are hugely inflated by his time with the Cowboys and Steelers in the mid-to-late 90s. Gailey was more of a mixed bag in terms of run/pass split in his recent stints with the Jets and Bills. His recent NFL track record is pretty brutal, but it makes sense when you look at the players he's worked with. He had Tyler Thigpen starting 11 games for the 2018 Chiefs, and his Buffalo/NYJ teams mostly relied on none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.

30. Washington TBDs 

71 Vacated Carries — Chris Thompson (37), Wendell Smallwood (22), Case Keenum (9), Colt McCoy (2), Paul Richardson (1)

224 Added Carries — Peyton Barber (154), J.D. McKissic (38), Kyle Allen (32)

2019 Rush Rate — 40.2 percent (17th)

2019 Carries — 356 (31st)

This one is mostly just misleading, as 69 percent of the added carries are coming from a guy who probably won't make the 53-man roster, with another 14 percent coming from a backup QB. McKissic's $1 million contract guarantee suggests he'll have a spot on the team, but his workload won't be any more than what Thompson and Smallwood handled last year.

This is a "crowded backfield" in the sense of having a bunch of familiar names, but only four of these guys will actually end up with roster spots, and we aren't totally sure third-round pick Antonio Gibson will stick as a running back rather than a wide receiver. I also wonder if Adrian Peterson is safe, considering the team can free up $2.48 million in cap space if he's cut. While a three-down role may be out of the question, a healthy Derrius Guice could quickly make all the other ballcarriers irrelevant. Granted, we still aren't sure if 'healthy Derrius Guice' can even be a thing.

• Washington had the highest rush rate in the league on early downs in neutral game situations last year (per ESPN's Bill Barnwell). Of course, Washington also has a new coaching staff... and a new team name!
• I think they should name the team the Washington Pandas. And I promise I'm not just saying that because I was promised a cut by the trademark squatter who "owns" that name. The National Zoo's Panda Cam is one of the simple pleasures in life, and that should be rewarded. But I'm also a huge fan of wolves, including Red Wolves, so this whole situation has become very stressful for me.

31. Denver Broncos

25 Vacated Carries — Joe Flacco (12), Brandon Allen (10), Devontae Booker (2), Andy Janovich (1)

184 Added Carries — Melvin Gordon (162), Jeff Driskel (22)

2019 Rush Rate — 42.9 percent (9th)

2019 Carries — 409 (T-14th)

Royce Freeman is the obvious loser here, and while he seems to be regularly mentioned in trade rumors, he hasn't really done anything that would justify giving up a draft pick to add him. Of course, Freeman handled only 132 carries last year, and we can assume the Broncos want Gordon to take far more than that after they paid him $13.5 million guaranteed. Our second obvious conclusion is that Phillip Lindsay won't match last year's 224 carries, barring a Gordon injury. Gordon on passing downs and at the goal line seems obvious, but I do wonder if the carry split between the 20s might actually tilt slightly in Lindsay's favor — their respective track records suggest that's the smart play, though Lindsay admittedly has run behind better O-lines.

• Gordon has taken 460 carries on 1st-and-10, averaging 4.02 YPC.
• Lindsay has taken 223 carries on 1st-and-10, averaging 5.37 YPC.

32. Seattle Seahawks

35 Vacated Carries — C.J. Prosise (23), Marshawn Lynch (12)

248 Added Carries — Carlos Hyde (245), Phillip Dorsett (3)

2019 Rush Rate — 46.0 percent (6th)

2019 Carries — 481 (3rd)

With Chris Carson (278 carries) and Rashaad Penny (65) both coming back from major injuries, the Seahawks devoted a fourth-round pick to DeeJay Dallas and then gave Hyde a one-year, $2.75 million contract with $750k guaranteed. Penny may not be ready for Week 1, but I am starting to get a little nervous (re: Carson) about the Seahawks investing in so much backfield depth. They also have 2019 sixth-round pick Travis Homer lingering as a potential option for passing downs, a role Carson unexpectedly handled for much of last season. 

I don't doubt that a healthy Carson is the lead guy, but I worry he'll lose 5-8 carries per week to Hyde/Dallas and passing-down work to Penny/Homer. The good news is that nearly everyone else seems to share my concern, with Carson being drafted at RB20 despite finishing at RB12 last season.