Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cowboys vs. Giants

We're presented with another classic NFC East matchup Monday night, with the Cowboys 6.5-point road favorites against the Giants in a game with a solid 48.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook. The 2-6 Giants come in having lost four straight, allowing at least 27 in each game, while the Cowboys, who beat the Giants in Dallas 35-17 in Week 1, have lost four of their past five, including a loss to the Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 6 before bouncing back and crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. Coming out of their bye, it's no surprise that the Cowboys are favored, though there are enough fantasy plays on both sides that full Cowboys stacks on DraftKings and FanDuel may be too aggressive.

RUNNING BACKS

We'll start with the running backs because the two teams' starters are the best players in the game and, unsurprisingly, the two-most expensive on DraftKings and two of the three-most on FanDuel. Ezekiel Elliott ($11,600 DK, $14,000 FD) leads the way on the former site after rushing for over 100 yards in four of the last six games, including each of the last two, and he's scored a touchdown in every game but Week 3 against Miami (go figure). He continues to play a solid role in the passing game, catching 19 of 23 targets for 143 receiving yards in the past four games, and even though the Cowboys are decently favored, there's little reason to think they'll get out to such a lead that Elliott won't be used to bleed clock. Backup Tony Pollard ($3,600 DK, $6,000 FD) is the only other running back to get carries this season, but his production continues to be minimal, rushing eight times in Week 7, a total that was more than Weeks 5 and 6 combined. He also doesn't figure much in the passing game, last being targeted in Week 3 against Miami. Given how much usage Elliott gets, and the fact the Cowboys are favored, he'll be a popular captain/MVP option.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley ($11,400 DK, $14,500 FD) hasn't gotten nearly the rushing volume as Elliott, failing to get even 20 carries in a game this season, but he's still active in the passing game, including an excellent eight catches on 10 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown just last week at Detroit. Barkely missed three games due to injury, but he has scored at least one touchdown in both of his games since returning, and he should get a full workload Monday night. Backup Wayne Gallman ($1,800 DK, $7,000 FD) has seen his opportunities diminish significantly since Barkley returned, playing just 23 snaps in the past two games combined, failing to get a rushing attempt and catching his only target for 20 yards. Barkley also figures to get some attention for captain, especially for those who think the Cowboys are doomed at MetLife Stadium.

QUARTERBACKS

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ($10,400 DK, $15,000 FD) is the most expensive player on FanDuel, though he comes in after failing to throw for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games (that being said, his most recent one-touchdown performance also had a rushing score). His passing-yard volume hasn't been overly prolific on a regular basis, twice passing for more than 400 times but failing to reach 280 in his other five starts. Of course, one of those explosive games came against these very same Giants, as he completed 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1, and the Giants have now allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, and that includes two games when they held Washington and Arizona to fewer than 150 passing yards and zero touchdowns. The Dallas passing tree isn't overly tight, so Prescott may be the most reliable path to their air attack if he spreads his targets around. Prescott's passing yard prop on FanDuel is 275.5 yards, while his over 1.5 touchdowns is currently -164 versus +128 for the under. Given the expected popularity of Elliott and Barkley, Prescott may not be overly high in terms of captain/MVP ownership, but he also won't be ignored.

On the other side, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones ($8,000 DK, $13,500 FD) has been predictably inconsistent for a rookie signal caller, but there's reason for optimism given the upside performances we've seen. He didn't start Week 1 against the Cowboys because the Giants still thought Eli Manning was their best path to victory, but he's coming off his best passing game as a pro, completing 28 of 41 passes for 322 yards and four touchdowns at Detroit. Jones has also shown a bit of a rushing floor, though it's not that impressive and unlikely to be more than three of four fantasy points, kind of like Prescott on most days. Jones may be susceptible to turning the ball over (he's thrown seven interceptions and fumbled five times, losing three, in the past five games), but his aggressiveness is a positive for fantasy players because he can put up big scores if everything is working. His 6.8 YPA is hardly worth writing home about, but we see that his bigger games come when he's throwing farther down field. Similar to Prescott, he's unlikely to be a very popular captain/MVP pick because of how many people will turn to Barkley and Elliott, and since he's an underdog he may be even lower despite a more reasonable salary.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

This is where things get a little interesting. We know who is going to get a vast majority of the running back opportunities and we know who is throwing the ball for both teams, but who is catching the passes is where there can be some justified diversification. Amari Cooper ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) leads the Cowboys in targets (50), receptions (38), receiving yards (621), receiving touchdowns (five) and air yards (649), and because of it, he's the most expensive Cowboys receiver. He was solid in the teams' first matchup this season, catching six of nine targets for 106 yards and a touchdown, his first of three games with more than 100 yards this season, and he had 88 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. He doesn't have dominant red-zone work, but a solid 13.0 aDOT shows that he's more of a big-play receiver than some big target in the end zone. Michael Gallup ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) will start opposite Cooper and provides a cheaper path to the Cowboys' receivers, and he comes in with at least seven targets in four of his five games this season. Unfortunately, he's caught only seven of 11 targets for 82 yards in the past two games, but the Giants' secondary shouldn't be one that we should worry about, having allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on DraftKings this season, and the third-most on FanDuel. If you expect most of Prescott's production to come from his throws to Cooper and Gallup, rostering them together and fading Prescott could be beneficial, though it won't come cheaply.

Tight end Jason Witten ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD) is still a thing, and he leads the team in red-zone targets, including the most inside the 10 and five-yard lines. He's been incredibly efficient with his targets too, catching 26 of 31 for 263 yards and two touchdowns, but we also can't ignore that he was targeted four times in the red zone in the first two games of the season, when he scored his two touchdowns, and he's gotten just one look inside the 20 in the past four games, and it was outside the 10. High volume won't be there for Witten, so you're dependent on a touchdown for him to provide any value, and even if he does get it it won't be as big of a score as a long TD pass to a wide receiver who you can get for cheaper.

Randall Cobb ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) is in a similar mode to Witten, with their stats eerily similar, though the former has played one fewer game: Witten has caught 26 of 31 targets for 263 yards, with 256 air yards and an 8.3 aDOT while Cobb has caught 19 of 20 targets for 239 yards, with 254 air yards and an 8.5 aDOT. Obviously the one extra game for Witten shows that Cobb has been more productive, though their respective aDOTs are the important part in terms of considering their chances for long touchdowns. Tight end Blake Jarwin ($2,000 DK, $5,000 FD) is even more touchdown dependent, and while he could score like he did against the Giants in Week 1 or the Eagles in Week 7; just know he's been targeted 15 times all season. Otherwise, we're left with guys who can score deep but probably won't. Devin Smith ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) has been inactive the past three games but did catch all three targets for 74 yards and a touchdown (a 51-yarder) in Week 2. Tavon Austin ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD) was active against the Jets in Week 6, catching five of six targets for 64 yards, and while he was targeted just once in the next game, he helped fantasy players with a 20-yard touchdown on his only rushing attempt. Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and tight end Dalton Schultz ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD) round out the bottom of the receiving yards list, with Wilson catching five of six targets for 46 yards against the Jets before getting zero offensive snaps in Week 7 and Schultz catching one pass on his only target against the Jets while failing to get targeted in any other game (he's only played double-digit snaps twice). Austin seems like the most reliable option after Cooper and Gallup, but he's not actually reliable, nor does he provide significant cost savings. Wilson seems like a realistic dart throw because of his solid 13.6 aDOT, but again, that came in one game.

The Giants' passing game is in trouble, as Sterling Shepard has been ruled out again because of concussion symptoms, leaving Darius Slayton ($5,000 DK, $9,000 FD) to start opposite Golden Tate ($6,800 DK, $11,000 FD). Slayton was excellent last week in Detroit, racking up 50 yards and two touchdowns, though he was only targeted five times, catching two. On the plus side, he's gotten at least five targets in four of six games, but he's still hasn't had more than four receptions. He remains the Giants' big-play option, however, as he leads the team with 428 air yards and a 16.5 aDOT. Among wide receivers who are expected to be active Monday, Tate is first with 23 catches on 36 targets for 280 yards, and the target volume is certainly there, getting 30 passes thrown to him in the past three games, catching 20 for 267 yards and a touchdown. Given his price, he could be a solid option for those who think Jones can avoid mistakes, though he's still not the best Giants pass catcher.

That player is tight end Evan Engram ($7,800 DK, $10,000 FD), who leads the team in targets (60), receptions (38), receiving yards (374), receiving touchdowns (three, tied with Slayton), red-zone targets (nine), targets inside the 10-yard line (five) and targets inside the five (three). While the Giants have been statistically good against tight ends this season, the Cowboys have been poor, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game on DraftKings and sixth-most on FanDuel, partially because of Engram, who had 11 catches on 14 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. He's reach 100 yards twice this season, though not since Week 3, and two of his three touchdowns came in those first three games. Nevertheless, he's still getting targets and should be a popular pick for fantasy players looking for exposure to the Giants' passing game. Tate's been getting the volume recently, but Engram's matchup should keep him sought after.

Otherwise, the Giants have a bunch of other guys who can run routes but probably won't catch many (if any) passes, if they're targeted at all. Cody Latimer ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) has seen an increase in usage recently, but that's still only equated to six catches on eight targets for 61 yards in the past two games combined, while Bennie Fowler ($1,600 DK, $6,000 FD) caught six of seven targets for 56 yards in that span. Cody Core ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) could conceivably gets some added snaps with Shepard out again, but he hasn't been targeted since Week 2 despite 33 offensive snaps. Those guys at least present some downfield threat, with Latimer's 14.5 aDOT the second-highest on the team and Fowler is third at 11.6, making them more attractive than backup tight end Rhett Ellison ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD), who is still looking for his first game with 35 receiving yards, though he did score a touchdown on one of his two targets in Week 7 against the Cardinals.

KICKERS

The Cowboys' Brett Maher ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) has been crushing it recently, scoring 14.0 and 15.0 fantasy points in his past two games, respectively, a span that saw him nail a 62-yard field goal in Week 6 at MetLife Stadium and then a 63-yarder in Dallas. Given the points expected to be scored, rostering Maher in cash games is certainly in play, though you have to consider whether he's worth it in tournaments if guys like Tavon Austin or one of the cheaper Giants receivers can get on the end of a long touchdown. Realistically, Maher probably outscores them.

Rostering the Giants' Aldrick Rosas ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) makes sense if you think the Giants will be able to move the ball against the Cowboys but not punch it into the end zone. Unfortunately, that hasn't really helped this season, as Rosas has yet to score more than six fantasy points because he hasn't had more than one field-goal attempt in any game this season, a pretty remarkable feat.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Even though the Giants' defense ($2,600 DK) has been relatively poor this season, they haven't been so bad that they should absolutely be avoided Monday. They scored touchdowns in two of the past three games, hitting a low of 5.0 fantasy points over the past six games while reaching double digits three times in that span. They don't create many turnovers, and they have been giving up loads of points, but their range of scores recently would be fine in cash games at the salary. Unfortunately, Prescott doesn't turn the ball over much and his 4.0 percent sack rate is one of the lowest in the league among regular starters.

The Cowboys defense ($5,400) hasn't been explosive in any game this season, maxing out at 12.0 in their game against Miami in Week 3. They have yet to score a touchdown and have forced multiple turnovers just twice; however, the draw is that they're facing a rookie quarterback who threw seven interceptions and fumbled five times (lost three) in the past five games. The price on DraftKings puts them in between many starters and backups, and similar to kickers, they seem to offer more floor than ceiling.