FanDuel NFL: Week 17 Preview

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

After some relatively short main slates the last few weeks, we're back to 13 games for Week 17. In addition to that change, there's a glaring difference in the player pool this week compared to recent ones. The value is primarily found at running back, while there's a relative lack of value at wide receiver. It could also be the time to turn back to an elite tight end who happens to be at the lowest point in his career in recent memory.   

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The 49ers, Eagles and Bills all have implied totals of at least 27.  
• The Ravens-Dolphins and Eagles-Cardinals stand out as potential game stacks based on the game totals.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,500) vs. CIN
Zamir White ($6,100) at IND

This is the week of backup running backs, which opens a ton of value that was alluded to in the introduction. We can start with the situation in Kansas City, where both Isiah Pacheco ($7,200) and CEH are questionable. With Jerick McKinnon (groin) ($5,000) out, Pacheco or CEH is likely to claim most — if not all — of the work out of the backfield, depending on which suits up. Based on  practice reports, my guess is that Pacheco will be out with a concussion, leaving CEH as the workhorse back, assuming he can play through an illness he's battled this week. If both are active, Pacheco is the better play. The Bengals aren't a matchup to avoid.

Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs (quad) is doubtful. White has been excellent in two games without Jacobs already (16 and 14.5 FD points) and he's still priced reasonably. The Colts are one of the softest matchups, so White is perhaps the best value of the entire slate.  

One other situation to watch is in Seattle, where Kenneth Walker (shoulder/illness) is also questionable and is a game-time decision. If there's news that he's expected to play at or near 100 percent health, he is a reasonable price. If he's out, Charbonnet is another obvious value.

Other Value Options

QB Matthew Stafford ($7,500) at NYG 
QB Geno Smith ($6,900) vs. PIT
QB Easton Stick ($6,800) at DEN 
QB Tyrod Taylor ($6,700) vs. LAR 
RB Kenneth Walker vs. PIT ($7,000) / Zach Charbonnet vs. PIT ($5,400)
RB Chuba Hubbard at JAC ($6,800)
RB Brian Robinson vs. SF ($6,50)
RB Ezekiel Elliott at BUF ($6,400)
WR Adam Thielen at JAC ($6,900)
WR Darius Slayton vs. LAR ($5,400)
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at HOU ($5,400)
TE Juwan Johnson at TB ($5,200)

Stacks to Consider

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

The Dolphins were involved in the top projected game stack in Week 16 as well, as things didn't really pan out. Even though this game has the highest implied total, we have to at least bring up that risk once again. The Ravens are arguably the best defense in the league and shut down the 49ers last week, while Miami has significantly improved on that end of the ball with the return of Jalen Ramsey and more time in Vic Fangio's scheme.

For those who want to rely on the explosiveness of these offenses overcoming the tough matchup, the Miami side of this matchup is pretty easy to forecast. Tyreek Hill ($9,800) will be the focal point of the offense even more so than usual with Jaylen Waddle (ankle) sidelined. The question will be whether the Ravens can slow Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600) to a degree that Hill can't possibly produce a ceiling game. The unit has allowed only 13.4 FD points per game to quarterbacks, fewest in the league. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa hasn't reached 20 FD points since Week 8 against the Patriots.

On the Baltimore side, things are more complicated. Lamar Jackson ($7,900) is the place to start in the offense and is more of a ceiling option than Tagovailoa. He's reached at least 19.50 points in four of his last five games, topping 30 once. In a full-game stack, Jackson is the preferable quarterback. Predicting his pass catchers is more difficult. Things could hinge on the health of Zay Flowers ($6,300) (calf), who appears to be legitimately questionable. If he's in and seemingly close to full health, he's a strong play. His involvement in the offense had been ticking up after a mid-season lull (at least eight targets in three of his last four games). If he's out, Odell Beckham ($5,800) and Isaiah Likely ($6,000) should benefit.

All told, my preferred approach would be to skinny stack this game, with a potential favorite combo being Jackson-Hill-Raheem Mostert ($7,700) or De'Von Achane ($6,900) if Mostert is out with knee and ankle injuries.  

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

Once again, we can start with a relatively straightforward side of a game, which in this case is the Eagles. The perception of the team is negative at the moment, yet Jalen Hurts ($9,200) has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league from a fantasy scoring perspective. A.J. Brown ($8,500) hasn't had a ceiling performance in several games, but he's capable of it any point. DeVonta Smith ($7,200) has gotten the better of things from a production standpoint, but Brown is the target king in the offense (double-digit targets in four consecutive games, Smith has tow in the same span). Dallas Goedert ($5,800) has gotten more involved in each game since returning from injury and is priced in the mid-tier of tight ends despite remaining a key part of an explosive offense.  

The hope is that Arizona can keep pace, and Philadelphia is a pass-funnel defense. Marquise Brown (heel) is out for the season, leaving Greg Dortch ($5,200) as a nice value to offset the cots of the high-priced offensive pieces in Philly. Trey McBride ($6,800) is among the top-priced tight ends, but he's earned it with the ceiling he's proven to have. Kyler Murray ($7,800) has a safe floor, but he's yet to show he has tournament winning upside since coming back in the middle of the season.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

This has the chance to be the under-the-radar shootout game of the week. The Rams are on fire, thanks to the strong play of Matthew Stafford ($7,500). His favorite targets are Cooper Kupp ($8,000) and Puka Nacua ($7,900), who have been alternating big performances. Kupp has the safer floor, but Nacua has had big-time performance twice in the last four weeks (21.9 and 28.5 FD points). Demarcus Robinson ($6,400) is a cheaper option that has produced, but his current level of production is unsustainable given his low volume in the offense.  

The Giants' offense hasn't been one to target this season, but Tyrod Taylor ($6,700) is competent at quarterback — something the team hasn't had this season. Darius Slayton ($5,400) and Darren Waller ($5,900) are likely to be his favorite targets and would contribute to this game turning into a shootout.

Of course, we have to mention the running backs, as both Kyren Williams ($9,400) and Saquon Barkley ($7,800) will account for a ton of touches.

High-Priced Hero

Travis Kelce at CIN ($7,800)

Kelce and the Chiefs are at the lowest point since the 2015 season, so now is the perfect time to buy. Unfortunately, he's still projected for a fairly high roster rate, but for good reason. The Bengals' struggles against tight ends has been well-documented this season and consistent. They focused their defensive resources on stopping Pat Freiermuth last Saturday, only to have George Pickens beat them over the top on two occasions. That could be Rashee Rice ($7,400) this week, or potentially Justin Watson ($5,300). They are both viable pivots off Kelce, or options to overstack the Chiefs side of this offense with value also likely to be open at RB for the team.   

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. PIT ($5,800)

There are multiple layers of risk in this pick because Smith-Njigba isn't the focal point of an offense that hasn't really been on track this season, but it's betting on an excellent talent that hasn't had a true breakout performance. After seeing at least seven targets only twice in his first 11 games, JSN has hit that mark in three of his last four games. On Sunday, he'll draw a Steelers' defense that is without its top four safeties and has an unreliable second corner next to Joey Porter. This could be Smith-Njigba's breakout performance, and it doesn't come at a high cost or likely high roster rate.