This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
The Anatomy of a Catastrophic Loss
I lost in the Stopa Law Firm League to Dalton Del Don this week, putting him into and me out of the playoffs and awarding him our $200 sidebet. On its face, that's horrific and humiliating, but it gets worse.
The Stopa Law Firm League has an $11K first prize, though that's split if the person with the most overall points doesn't win it. Even so, the payouts are high, and the playoff spots coveted. Heading into the week, there were two ways for me to get in: (1) Beat Dalton; or (2) Have DVR - who has the most points - beat Scott Pianowski and qualify for a playoff spot based on his 7-6 record. In that case the non-qualifier with the most points, i.e., me, would get the sixth spot.
This is a QB-flex league which means you want to start two QBs. The two I bought at auction last July in Vegas were Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston. They were my starters, though I picked up Colin Kaepernick for the remainder of my FAAB budget when he was named the starter in San Francisco. Kaepernick had come in handy during Cousins' bye in Week 9, the week Cousins faced the Vikings and last week when Winston faced the Seahawks. But he was my backup, and the two legitimate real-life QBs my starters. And that's how I set my initial lineup early last week.
Of course, it occurred to me to use Kaepernick, who had been red hot, against the Bears, but Winston and Cousins were both healthy and had so-so matchups - good enough to rely on for 200 yards passing and at least a TD. While Kaepernick had plenty of upside, he's also not a serious real-life QB and was playing on the road for a terrible team.
Instead of trusting my instincts, I asked my SXM guests about it (all of whom said Kaepernick, I believe), and the people I follow on Twitter seemed to agree. So I swapped in Kaepernick around Wednesday, just to feel it out, so-to-speak. I had not yet made any kind of final decision.
Come Sunday, I was out drinking all day with friends who were visiting from London (in Portugal, the games don't start until 6 pm), and at 5:15, I left them with Heather at a cafe and Ubered back to my apartment to set my lineups. During the ride, I noticed Jordan Matthews was out, and I briefly subbed in Dorial Green-Beckham for a banged-up Tyrell Williams. I also left Kenneth Dixon in over Terrance West, a long overdue move as I had been erroneously going with West the last few weeks, and Dixon's snap count had been higher in Week 12 for the first time all year.
At home, a few minutes before kickoff, I checked Williams' status, and reports showed he was likely to play, so I subbed him back in for Green-Beckham. As a rule, I don't like to make last-second changes that overrule my Thursday decisions unless there's an injury. Because that was the only change I had made that had to be changed back, I didn't really consider the quarterback question at all. I was dimly aware I was starting Kaepernick, but it wasn't something over which I agonized before the game due to my rule (and perhaps because I had had quite a bit of what was allegedly "The World's Best Sangria.")
In a sense, I had let the fantasy zeitgeist regarding Kaepernick influence me and then forgot I was even being influenced. As far I as knew on Sunday, that was my original call, and I didn't think to change it as no new info came out (except that the weather was wet and snowy.)
Of course, I was aghast during the first half when Kaepernick had 22 rushing yards and one short completed pass, but I figured there would be garbage time late as the Bears were up big most of the game. What really drove the dagger into my back was Chip Kelly benching Kaepernick and taking away the likely garbage time in the fourth quarter. I almost feel as though fantasy owners - who consume the most football, buy the most Sunday Ticket packages, watch the most commercials - are bigger stakeholders even than regular fans, and coaches who make whimsical personnel moves mid-game that have no future benefit (it's pretty clear what they have in Blaine Gabbert) that punish fantasy owners should be disciplined (in this case, the death penalty would be too mild.)
Even so, with my hopes likely dashed - it didn't help to see West score two TDs, though Dixon had more rushing yards, receiving yards and catches - I had another major out, and that was DVR - whose team had the most points - beating Pianowski. As of Sunday night, DVR had a 20-something-point lead but was facing Doug Baldwin and Steven Hauschka. As usual, I watched the condensed version of that game in the morning, not knowing the scores or the fantasy implications. Baldwin hadn't done much all game, but Hauschka was getting a lot of field goals, so I knew it was close. Then, with the Seahawks up 37-7 and nine minutes left in the game, Seattle put in QB Trevone Boykin alongside running back Troymaine Pope to start a clock-killing drive at their own 20 yard line. Somehow, this crew drove deep into Carolina territory, and on fourth down, Hauschka popped in a chip shot to make it 40-7. At that point, I checked the score in their game - Pianowski 110.48 - DVR 107.54.
I was toast, and in two of the worst ways possible. There was the Monday night game, but I was down 40-something, and I had only the banged-up T.Y. Hilton and scrub tight end Dwayne Allen who I had picked up off waivers that week as it's a two-TE league. My only realistic hope was the pair would do so little as to make me lose by more than the difference between Kaepernick and Winston (14.44 points.) That way I could let the bad lineup decision go.
(One other subplot: I had another $200 sidebet with Dalton on the Yahoo Friends and Family League (in which he had more points) but had lost to put him at 6-7. I was 6-6 and up about 20 against John Hansen who had Hilton and Frank Gore going. I wouldn't have made the playoffs had I won, but I believe per the terms of the bet, I would have won the $200 back from Dalton. Of course, I had used Kaepernick there too as I had streamed him the week before, and the best waiver option was probably Andy Dalton.)
Once again, I woke up in the morning, watched the condensed version of the game, and shockingly Allen caught a TD right away, then another and then a third in the first half. Hilton didn't score, but he was racking up big yardage and catch totals (goodbye to the $200 on YF&F). I didn't think I had any chance to catch Dalton, but suddenly it was in play. When the game ended, and I checked the final score, I realized I had forgotten he had Adam Vinatieri going for him in that game, and I lost 177.66 to 173.80, far less than the Winston/Kaepernick difference, the West/Dixon difference or what Kaepernick would likely have gotten in the fourth quarter had Kelly simply let him finish the contest.
I will now go to my grave ruing the Kaepernick decision, and the only comfort left to me is that the Super Volcano is coming for all of us - it's only a matter of time.
(Incidentally, I think there needs to be an investigation into the relationship between DDD and Kaepernick who hung out before the season and even went golfing together.)
NFL Park Effects
Jeff Erickson and I discussed this on the SXM show - why has no one done a study on NFL park effects? For baseball we know Coors Field inflates hitting stats and draft accordingly. For the NFL we might know Drew Brees is better at home, and the Saints defense is usually bad, but does that have anything to do with the venue itself? After all, Ben Roethlisberger is also much better at home, but Heinz Field isn't necessarily viewed as an offense-friendly park.
Because unlike baseball, NFL fields are all the same size and shape perhaps no one has thought to look into this seriously or perhaps whatever differences were discovered would turn out to be small. But Coors Field is larger than average and is not the most extreme park because of its dimensions, but rather its location and altitude. Environmental factors like altitude, average temperature, average precipitation and wind are even more disparate in football, and the the averages might not even be as significant as the incidence or non-incidence of extreme conditions, e.g, maybe twice per year, it's sub 20 degrees with strong winds in Chicago and more than 90 with high humidity in Miami 1.5 times. It's hard to believe that given 31 different venues (Giants and Jets share), there's not a spectrum from most offense-friendly to most defense-oriented.
Part of the problem is the NFL is harder to study than baseball because it's such a team game rather than a series of one on one matchups between hitter and pitcher. The Ravens stadium probably played as a low scoring one from 2000-2010 because of the bad offenses and great defenses that resided there during that span. One could look at the Ravens' output in road games, price in some kind of average on-the-road regression and try to see whether their home stadium aided them beyond what one would expect from a generic home field on defense, but you'd also have to normalize for opponent including injuries, and it becomes tricky as all teams change constantly over time.
Put differently, I certainly don't have the statistical chops for such a study, but I am surprised we talk so much about park effects in baseball, but vaguely mumble about weather games, altitude or "the speedy turf" without attempting rigorously to quantify it.
Week 13 Observations
• Keep in mind if you got bounced in Week 13, you were very likely going to get bounced at some point in the playoffs. Only one team in 12 finishes the season happy.
• So crazy the Falcons lost while attempting the go-up-by-three two-point conversion which turned into the go-down-by-one-two-point-conversion return. Eric Berry brought both that and a pick to the house, and it was not the first time he scored this year. Maybe the Chiefs should use him on offense.
• The Chiefs are such an odd team, getting eight points from Berry and six on an Albert Wilson 55-yard TD on a fake punt. It's nice they're finally feeding Travis Kelce the amount he deserves, though. With Rob Gronkowski out for the year and Jordan Reed also hurt, Kelce is arguably the top fantasy TE.
•Spencer Ware was not efficient for once, but he scored twice.
•Devonta Freeman is reliable as ever with another two scores, four catches and 105 YFS, despite a healthy Tevin Coleman.
•Matt Bryant kicked a 59-yard FG at the end of the first half. While there's been a lot of focus on all the missed PATs, the league's high-end kicking is better than ever.
• I used to support Kaepernick's Constitutional right to protest, but now I wish he had been jailed. I'm also not sure why he was benched for the fourth quarter. I get he wasn't producing much, but had only attempted five passes – how can you sit a guy for four incompletions, even if his YPA was 0.8.
•Matt Barkley got 10.7 YPA but attempted only 18 passes.
•Jordan Howard wasn't efficient, but this was the perfect combination of opponent and game flow.
• Strange the Eagles were road favorites in this one. Andy Dalton picked apart the defense without A.J. Green.
•Jeremy Hill had 22 carries for 33 yards, Rex Burkhead 8-for-38 along with four catches for 28 yards.
•Brandon LaFell had seven targets, led the team in catches and yards and scored a TD. Tyler Boyd had six targets.
• I was excited about Dorial Green-Beckham's prospects when Jordan Matthews was scratched, but DGB left with a rib injury in the first half. Right now, Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz are the team's only somewhat trustworthy options.
•Carson Wentz was once in the same conversation as Dak Prescott but is now trending toward his original comparison with Jared Goff.
• There's not much to say about the Texans-Packers except that Jordy Nelson scored his 10th TD and is on pace to live up to his early-second-round draft status.
• Game flow matters little to the Patriots with respect to run/pass distribution – Tom Brady attempted 46 passes while handing off only 26 times even though the Patriots were way ahead all game.
•Julian Edelman is back as a top-15 WR, and Malcolm Mitchell, who scored two TDs last week, also saw 10 targets to Chris Hogan's five.
• Even I throw in the towel on Todd Gurley. I kept thinking, "he's healthy, young, hugely-talented, getting involved in the passing game, it's only a matter of time." I still think the most plausible explanation is he and Melvin Gordon just swapped identities this year.
• Ronde Barber (though it might have been Tiki) was praising Matthew Stafford like crazy, comparing him to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre during the broadcast. Stafford had a fine game, but 66 of his yards came on an underthrow to Golden Tate, and the rest was mostly dink and dunk. I wouldn't put Stafford and his 7.4 YPA in the my top-10 real-life QBs right now.
• Maybe the Lions defense has turned a corner. Once one of the worst in the league against the pass, it held Drew Brees to 7.4 YPA, no TDs and three picks in the Superdome, an unheard of feat. The last time Brees failed to throw a TD at home was against the peak-Darrelle-Revis Jets in 2009.
•Coby Fleener went 5-for-86, but dropped a TD and another pass for a potential good gain.
• Tate is the Lions' No. 1 WR, the inexplicable early-season pass distribution notwithstanding.
•Blake Bortles vs. Paxton Lynch was as advertised. Neither QB threw a TD or cracked 4.5 YPA. Bortles was kind enough to throw a pick six, largely the difference in the game.
• I took the Dolphins plus 3.5 because I thought they were equal to the Ravens and the half point was too good to pass up.
• As someone who finally used Kenneth Dixon over Terrance West in a league, that West scored twice was frustrating. Dixon was far more efficient and caught more passes though.
•Joe Flacco-Dennis Pitta was the million-dollar stack. Often, it's the case an oddball combo wins the week; the trouble is predicting which one. Incidentally, Pitta hadn't scored a TD since December of 2013, so naturally he got two.
•LeSean McCoy had 191 YFS but Mike Gillislee had one- and two-yard touchdowns. It looks like Gillislee might be the goal-line back.
•Sammy Watkins caught just three of nine targets for 38 yards. You'd have liked a stronger game heading into your playoffs because he can't be trusted as more than a take-a-shot, upside play now.
•Michael Crabtree dropped an easy TD, but caught another later on 11 targets. Amari Cooper saw only four.
•Latavius Murray isn't anything special, but he's quietly scored 11 TDs in 10 games.
• I jinxed myself on Twitter when I wrote: "You gotta love the cover-FG by WAS" when the Redskins, getting 2.5, made the score 24-23 with four minutes left. Of course, instead of running clock, the Cardinals threw a deep TD on the next drive to win by eight.
•David Johnson is the fantasy MVP so far with another 185 YFS and two TDs again. In PPR, you can add nine catches. Through 12 games Johnson has never failed to eclipse 100 YFS, and he's already scored more fantasy points than any back last year did in the full season (h/t Tristin Cockcroft of ESPN.)
•Eli Manning played one of his worst games in recent memory, throwing a pick deep in the red-zone that Lawrence Timmons returned 58 yards, throwing a ball at the feet of his receiver on a key third down and throwing a second pick short and late to Sean Davis on a 4th down play where Sterling Shepard was wide open. He also forced a ball to Will Tye when Paul Perkins was wide open in the flat on another key third or fourth down.
•Odell Beckham finally got the targets he deserves, but they all seemed to come on one drive in the second quarter and then again in garbage time when he and Manning probably shouldn't have even been on the field (down 17 with less than two minutes left.)
•Le'Veon Bell had another 182 YFS and six catches, but lost a fumble for the first time since his rookie year and didn't score. He and David Johnson are the clear top-two PPR players with Ezekiel Elliott in the conversation in non-PPR.
•Ladarius Green caught six passes for 110 yards and a score on a team-leading 11 targets. He had the prove-it game you wanted to see from Watkins for your playoffs.
• The refs also botched this game, calling a phantom OPI on Beckham, calling a phantom hold in the end zone for a safety and not calling a blatant late hit by Steelers safety Mike Mitchell on Beckham. It's odd, but a penalty in the end zone is the only time the refs can award points to a team by decree. Even with DPI in the end zone, the ball is placed at the one, but with the safety, the refs can literally put points on the board and change possession on a whim.
• There was an odd situation where the Steelers punted, but Ben Roethlisberger was slow getting off the field, so Pittsburgh clearly had 12 men, and a flag was thrown before the punt went into the air. In cases like this where the QB sees the defense jump and a flag is thrown, he'll usually take a shot down field, knowing nothing bad can happen. I was kind of hoping Dwayne Harris would do the same, initiating a series of crazy laterals as he was being tackled.
•Melvin Gordon is the poor man's David Johnson/Lev Bell – leading the team in rushing and receiving while scoring a TD.
•Cameron Brate is the clear No. 2 option in Tampa's passing offense.
• Although per-play-metric sites pegged Seattle-Carolina as a seven-point game, it was obvious the Seahawks would blow them out. The Panthers have checked out, they had to fly across the country for a night game in the worst environment, and the Seahawks were coming home off a bad road loss. Moreover, the Seahawks got Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas back, while the Panthers were missing Luke Kuechly. It's easy to say things like this after the fact, but I made Seattle my best bet of the week and one of my five best bets all year.
• Why on earth did Ron Rivera punt on fourth and less than 10 from the Seattle 40, down 30-7 in the second half? What a retweet into cowardice for "Riverboat."
• After a hiccup against the Bucs, Thomas Rawls looks like the top-10 difference-maker RB many expected when C.J. Prosise went down.
•Tyler Lockett is also back in play for the playoffs, catching five of six targets for 63 yards, rushing for a 75-yard score and nearly breaking a couple returns.
•Greg Olsen's streak of sub 55-yard games is up to six.
• Once merely a return man, Ted Ginn has become a poor man's DeSean Jackson late in his career.
• Imagine if Andrew Luck had a better team around him. He makes amazing throws under duress routinely. His third-down completion to Donte Moncrief for a first down was a throw that maybe he and Aaron Rodgers make.
• Gore still looks spry in Week 13, and against the Jets no less. He's obviously slower now, but at 33, he doesn't look worn out.
• Allen was a popular sleeper tight end this year with Coby Fleener gone, and we've seen a glimpse of why the last two games. T.Y. Hilton is the team's clear No. 1, but Donte Moncrief hasn't established himself as more than a red-zone specialist since he came back from the shoulder injury, so there's room for Allen to have a significant role now that he's finally healthy himself.
•Adam Vinatieri is arguably the second best kicker in the league after Justin Tucker. He'll be 44 in a few weeks.
• The Jets are such a disaster – what an embarrassing showing at home on national TV.
•Bryce Petty was willing to sling it at least, albeit without great results, thanks in part to some Robby Anderson drops. Petty's 12 targets toward Anderson illustrate how backup quarterbacks often lock in on the guy with whom they practice rather than the first-team option. RIP Ryan Fitzpatrick.
• I have to imagine Todd Bowles will be gone at the end of the year.
