DraftKings NFL: Week 17 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 17 slate includes 13 games, a noticeable difference from the typical 10-gamers to which we're accustomed. The options seem endless and apart from a few exceptions, ownership will be spread around more so than usual. There's no obvious game to target either. The 49ers have the highest implied total, but their matchup with Washington carries significant blowout risk. Same goes for the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. There's some merit to stacking the Dolphins-Ravens matchup as it features two of the league's best teams and is the most likely of the highest-totaled games to stay competitive. This article breaks down some of those spots in more detail and highlights some of the top value for cash games and tournaments. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some chalk.

• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. CIN ($5,300)

Assuming Isiah Pacheco (concussion/shoulder) is out, Edwards-Helaire would project as the top value at RB outside of Christian McCaffrey. The Chiefs have a favored home matchup against a Bengals defense that hasn't stopped anybody and Edwards-Helaire looked good in his last start, taking 17 touches for 101 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. 

There's a similar situation with the Raiders if Josh Jacobs (quad) is out. Zamir White ($5,100) took 22 carries for 145 yards and a score last week and would project similar to Edwards-Helaire as the Raiders have a decent matchup indoors against the Colts. As news stands, I plan to roster both in cash games if Pacheco and Jacobs are out.  

• WR Zay Flowers vs. MIA ($5,600)

Flowers matched a career-high nine catches on 13 targets in an impressive performance on the road in San Francisco. The Ravens have a marquee matchup at home against the Dolphins and Flowers is priced a little too cheaply now he's become Lamar Jackson's go-to-guy in the absence of Mark Andrews. That said, there are no WRs that jump off the page in terms of value and Flowers is far from a must. Demario Douglas ($4,300) is expected to be popular as he's projects to draw the most targets of the cheap WRs and that makes him a fine option for cash games as he provides salary relief.  

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts vs. ARI ($8,300)

QB Brock Purdy at WAS ($7,000)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. SF ($4,900)

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. LAR ($4,600)

RB Christian McCaffrey at WAS ($9,600)

RB Kyren Williams at NYG ($8,300) 

RB Saquon Barkley vs. LAR ($6,900)

RB Ezekiel Elliott at BUF ($6,000)

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. CIN ($5,300)

RB Zamir White at IND ($5,100)

WR Tyreek Hill at BAL ($9,300)

WR Nico Collins vs. TEN ($7,200)

WR Brandon Aiyuk at WAS ($7,000)

WR Rashee Rice vs. CIN ($6,900)

WR Chris Olave at TB ($6,800)

WR DeAndre Hopkins at HOU ($6,000)

WR Zay Flowers vs. MIA ($5,600)

WR Demario Douglas at BUF ($4,300)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. LAR ($4,000)

WR Zay Jones vs. CAR ($4,000)

TE Trey McBride at PHI ($5,900)

TE George Kittle at WAS ($5,600)

TE Dalton Schultz vs. TEN ($4,300)

TE Gerald Everett at DEN ($3,500)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. LAC ($2,900)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Arizona Cardinals (18.75) at Philadelphia Eagles (29.25)

CARDINALS

Arizona has been a great team to stack against this season. Its defense ranks among the worst in the league and Kyler Murray ($6,300) is capable enough to push back and keep games relatively competitive. It's a combination that produces fantasy points on both sides. I don't have much interest in rostering Murray or stacking the Cardinals, but they have one piece in particular who makes for a great option in Eagles stacks. Trey McBride ($5,900) has been outstanding and Philadelphia's defense notoriously struggles against tight ends. McBride has been chalky for about two months now, but his ownership is expected to stay in check this week as his salary has reached a season high while the other top options have seen recent reductions. It's hard to get excited about any of Arizona's WRs; consider Michael Wilson ($3,500) or Rondale Moore ($3,600) if Marquise Brown (heel) is out. It's a tough matchup for James Conner ($5,900), but he's scored four TDs in the last three weeks while averaging more than 20 fantasy points in that span. He'll go mostly overlooked with at least three other RBs in his price range expected to carry significant ownership. 

EAGLES

Any way you look at it, this is a smash spot for the Eagles' offense. Jalen Hurts ($8,300) broke the single-season record for rushing TDs by a quarterback with his 15th last week. He should have a consistently clean pocket to throw from as Arizona's meager pass rush has mustered only one sack in the last four games. Philadelphia stacks look even better when you consider that none of their skill players are expected to be popular. The matchup against Arizona is as good as it gets for D'Andre Swift ($6,500). No team has allowed more fantasy points to RBs than the Cardinals. A.J. Brown ($8,600) and DeVonta Smith ($7,300) will be even less popular. Although he hasn't done it since Week 8, Brown is one of few players on the slate capable of 35-plus points and that type of upside at low ownership is always appealing. Dallas Goedert ($4,800) has drawn nine targets in back-to-back games and similar to Brown and Smith, has multiple-touchdown potential with the Eagles in such a prime spot. 

• Favorite Eagles Stack 1: QB Hurts and/or RB Swift + WR Brown + TE McBride
• Favorite Eagles Stack 2: QB Hurts + WR Wilson + WR Brown + TE Goedert

Miami Dolphins (21.75) at Baltimore Ravens (25.25)

DOLPHINS

An already difficult matchup for Miami becomes even tougher with Jaylen Waddle expected to be out. However, Waddle's absence makes it easier to stack them and also gives Tyreek Hill ($9,300) a better chance at hitting a ceiling with the expected bump in target share. The Dolphins aren't likely to control the game on the ground and a trailing game-script would put the onus on Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), whose salary has dropped to its lowest point since Week 7. Pairing him with Hill is still expensive, but it becomes much easier if you include Cedrick Wilson ($3,600) or Durham Smythe ($2,900), who'll be expected to help fill Waddle's void. Smythe has nine catches in his last two games while it wouldn't be surprising to see Wilson draw six or seven targets as the No. 2 WR. I mentioned I'm not excited about the running game, which leaves me uninterested in Raheem Mostert ($7,000) and De'Von Achane ($6,700) splitting work. There are cheaper RBs more likely to hit a ceiling. 

RAVENS

The Ravens look like the best team in football after dominating the 49ers in San Francisco on Christmas. Most encouraging from a DFS perspective was that they ranked first in pace while passing at their highest rate (76 percent) of the season. Lamar Jackson ($7,700) has entered the MVP conversation after a string of impressive performances. I like stacking Jackson because you only need to pair him with one pass-catcher and the options are limited. Zay Flowers ($5,600) is coming off nine catches on 13 targets for 82 yard and a TD against the 49ers. The talented rookie has big-play upside and has become Jackson's favorite target in the absence of Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely ($4,600) has looked good in Andrew's place and won't be overly popular after a salary increase. I don't have much interest in Odell Beckham ($4,500) or Rashod Bateman ($3,600) as they don't normally draw enough targets but that could change if Flowers is hampered by the heel injury that's kept him out of practice. 

• Favorite Dolphins Stack: QB Tagovailoa + WR Hill + WR Flowers + WR Wilson or TE Smythe
• Favorite Ravens Stack: QB Jackson + WR Hill + WR Flowers and/or TE Likely

Other Stacks to Consider

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins + WR DeAndre Hopkins/WR Treylon Burks +/- TE Dalton Schultz

QB Brock Purdy + WR Brandon Aiyuk + WR Terry McLaurin/WR Curtis Samuel +/- TE George Kittle

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans/WR Chris Godwin + WR Chris Olave/WR Rashid Shaheed

QB Gardner Minshew + RB Zamir White + WR Michael Pittman

QB Derek Carr + RB Rachaad White + WR Chris Olave and/or WR Rashid Shaheed

QB Jacoby Brissett + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Terry McLaurin/WR Curtis Samuel

QB Jarrett Stidham + WR Jerry Jeudy + TE Gerald Everett

QB Tyrod Taylor + RB Kyren Williams or WR Cooper Kupp + WR Darius Slayton/WR Wan'Dale Robinson

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Christian McCaffrey at WAS ($9,600)

It feels like I highlight McCaffrey every week in this spot, but I'm left with little choice as he once again has the best projection on the board, regardless of position. Not only for raw points and ceiling potential but also from a point-per-dollar perspective. The 49ers have one of the best possible matchups against a bad Washington defense that's been shredded all season by  RBs. In my opinion, McCaffrey is essentially a lock for cash games considering he's going to be popular and there's enough value at the other positions to comfortably afford him. 

• WR Tyreek Hill at BAL ($9,300)

Pretty much anytime I can roster Hill at less than 20 percent ownership I'm in. He's expensive, there's 13 games to choose from and Miami have a tough matchup in Baltimore. Those factors will keep his popularity in check and that's very appealing considering the slate-breaking upside he possess. Jaylen Waddle has already been ruled out and Hill's target share without Waddle on the field this season is a whopping 39 percent. Miami could well be playing from behind in this spot, which would set up well for Hill to draw 15 targets and he has massive upside in any matchup seeing that type of volume. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Jalen Hurts ($8,300); WR A.J. Brown ($8,600)

Fading the Field

• RB Ezekiel Elliott at BUF ($6,000)

Anywhere you look around the industry, Elliott has a top-10 projection and figures to be relatively popular as a result. I'm not arguing with the projection as it makes sense considering how involved in the passing-game he's been. I'm just not usually in the business of paying $6K for the RB on a 14-point road underdog, and that's especially true in Elliott's case. I just don't want to rely on another nine-catch game for him to pay off his salary. There are cheaper options I prefer and I don't plan on stacking the Bills in GPPs. It's worth noting, however, that if you're planning to roster Josh Allen or target the Bills in any way, it makes plenty of sense to play Elliott as you're hoping for a back and forth game with points on both sides.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB D'Andre Swift vs. ARI ($6,500)

Another reason I'm fading Elliott is because I'd rather find the $500 for Swift. It doesn't get better for RBs than a matchup against Arizona's defense as it's allowed the most fantasy points in the league to the position. It was encouraging to see Swift get 20 carries last week and if that happens again, he should be in line for 100-plus yards and a touchdown. The cherry on top is that he won't be too chalky as the likes of Edwards-Helaire, White, Elliott and even a few others are expected to be higher owned. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Chris Olave ($6,800); WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,600); TE Dalton Schultz ($4,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. SF ($4,900)

QB Jarrett Stidham vs. LAC ($4,800)

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. LAR ($4,600)

RB Devin Singletary vs. TEN ($5,600)

RB Javonte Williams vs. LAC ($5,600)

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. CIN ($5,300)

RB Zamir White at IND ($5,100)

WR Rashid Shaheed at TB ($4,600)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. SF ($4,400)

WR Demario Douglas at BUF ($4,300)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. LAR ($4,000)

WR Zay Jones vs. CAR ($4,000)

WR Quentin Johnston at DEN ($3,700)

WR Cedrick Wilson at BAL ($3,600)

WR Michael Wilson at PHI ($3,500)

WR Marvin Mims vs. LAC ($3,500)

WR Darius Slayton vs. LAR ($3,400)

WR Treylon Burks at HOU ($3,300)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at HOU ($3,600)

TE Gerald Everett at DEN ($3,500)

Injuries to Monitor 

• RB Isiah Pacheco vs. CIN

Pacheco is questionable as he works his way through concussion protocol while dealing with a shoulder injury. If he's ruled out, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300) would likely be the most popular RB on the slate not named Christian McCaffrey. 

• RB Josh Jacobs at IND 

Jacobs (quad) has been deemed a game-time decision by HC Antonio Pierce. If he misses, Zamir White ($5,100) would project among the top value at RB and be viable in all formats. 

Weather

• There might be some rain or snow in Buffalo with temperatures near freezing, but other than that there's nothing to really be concerned about this week.