DraftKings NFL: Week 10 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 10 slate features 10 games and one matchup that will be quite popular. The Bengals, with Tee Higgins out, project well across the board and will be chalky in every format. Even some of the Texans, who are without Nico Collins, will be popular. I think it's a no-brainer to roster multiple Bengals in cash games but tournaments present a different challenge. Fading that game is intriguing because you'd instantly be unique, with plenty of leverage to win any size GPP. Unfortunately as a Bengals fan, I'm leaning toward playing it and differentiating at running back and other positions. 

Either way is viable as nothing in this sport is ever a sure thing. Regardless of which games/players you target, keep correlation and leverage in mind when building tournament lineups as they are the keys to defeating large fields. We just saw the Texans and Bucs put up 76 points last week, with C.J. Stroud and two skill players from each side combining to win all of the money. That's the type of wave you're hoping to catch. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Rachaad White vs. TEN ($5,800)

White has seemingly established himself as Tampa Bay's bell cow. He's played more than 80 percent of the snaps in back-to-back games and is coming off 24 touches and two TDs against the Texans last week. His involvement in the passing game has really stood out. He has 17 catches in his last three games and a reception of 20-plus yards in each. It's worth noting that Joe Mixon ($6,200) and Bijan Robinson ($6,000) project slightly better, but I have no confidence recommending either based on how many times they've disappointed. I prefer Mixon because his touchdown equity is higher. 

• WR Tyler Boyd vs. HOU ($4,600) and Trenton Irwin vs. HOU ($3,000)

The big news is that Tee Higgins (hamstring) isn't expected to play, which means Boyd should see a bump in usage. The Bengals have the second-highest implied total on the slate in a favorable home matchup against the Texans. In the Week 5 game against Arizona in which Higgins missed, Boyd caught six of seven targets. Trenton Irwin ($3,000) was the bigger beneficiary as he drew 10 targets while catching eight for 60 yards. The Bengals WRs project as the best value on the board and make for good options in both cash games and GPPs. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Joe Burrow vs. HOU ($6,800)

QB Geno Smith vs. WAS ($5,800)

QB Baker Mayfield vs. TEN ($5,100)

RB Tony Pollard vs. NYG ($7,300)

RB Aaron Jones at PIT ($6,500)

RB Joe Mixon vs. HOU ($6,200)

RB Bijan Robinson at ARI ($6,000)

RB Rachaad White vs. TEN ($5,800)

RB Najee Harris vs. GB ($4,900)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. HOU ($8,600)

WR CeeDee Lamb vs. NYG ($8,500)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at LAC ($8,300)

WE DeAndre Hopkins at TB ($6,000)

WR Tank Dell at CIN ($5,500)

WR Marquise Brown vs. ATL ($5,200)

WR Tyler Boyd vs. HOU ($4,600)

WR Trenton Irwin vs. HOU ($3,000)

TE T.J. Hockenson vs. NO ($5,000)

TE Dalton Schultz at CIN ($4,900)

TE Evan Engram vs. SF ($4,500)

TE Trey McBride vs. ATL ($3,500)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG ($4,400)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. ATL ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Houston Texans (20.25) at Cincinnati Bengals (26.75)

TEXANS

C.J. Stroud ($6,900) is coming off an historic performance against Tampa Bay last week when he set a rookie record for passing yards with 470. He also threw five touchdowns and led one of the most impressive comebacks you'll see. Almost no one is going to roster him Sunday after DraftKings bumped up his salary up. You'd figure that the Texans, who will be without Dameon Pierce again, will need to rely on the passing game if they're going to keep up with the surging Bengals. Nico Collins ($6,600) is out while Robert Woods ($4,000) is expected to return. Standout rookie Tank Dell ($5,500) is healthy and full of confidence after catching six passes for 114 yards and two late TDs to complete the comeback. Noah Brown ($3,700) chipped in with six catches for 153 yards and score while Dalton Schultz ($4,900) caught 10 for 130 yards and a score. It must've been the first time in DFS history that three pass catchers from the same team topped 30 fantasy points. Collins being out frees up some usage and means that any of the four remaining pass-catchers are strong options. 

BENGALS

Many had written off Joe Burrow ($6,800) and the Bengals after a slow start to this season, but consecutive wins over two Super Bowl contenders in the 49ers and Bills have silenced the doubters. Now they look like one of the best teams in football as they ride a four-game winning streak into a home matchup against a Houston defense that just allowed 37 points against the Bucs. Tee Higgins ($6,500) is not expected to play because of a hamstring injury, which means it's a smash spot for Ja'Marr Chase ($8,600). It also means that Tyler Boyd ($4,600) and Trenton Irwin ($3,000) project as two of the better cheap value options at WR. Irwin had eight catches for 60 yards on 10 targets the last time Higgins sat in Week 5 against Arizona. He provides great salary relief priced at just $3K. If you're really trying to be different, Irv Smith ($2,700) caught his first TD of the season last week against the Bills while Tanner Hudson ($2,500) caught four of his five targets. Another way to gain leverage would be to add Joe Mixon ($6,200) to the stack. Mixon caught five of six targets last week and carries considerable touchdown equity in this spot. 

• Favorite Texans Stack: QB Stroud + WR Chase + WR Dell + TE Schultz +/- WR Irwin
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase + WR Irwin + TE Schultz or WR Dell

Washington Commanders (19) at Seattle Seahawks (25.5)

COMMANDERS

Look no further than the numbers to see why Washington games have been so good for fantasy points. The Commanders rank first in situation-neutral pass rate (68%) and over the last month that number has been even higher (69%). Offensive coordinator Erik Bieniemy is throwing even more than he did with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last season. It's led to some big games from Sam Howell ($5,900) as he's topped 300 passing yards in three of his last five games. What's surprising is that Terry McLaurin ($5,900) has yet to have a 100-yard receiving game and only has two TDs through nine games. It feels like it's only a matter of time, though, considering the rate that Washington's been throwing the ball. On the other hand, Jahan Dotson ($5,000) is coming off his best two games of the season and is starting to fulfill the hope that many had in preseason when he shot up draft boards. Curtis Samuel ($3,900) is also an option as he's expected to return from a toe injury that cost him to miss a game. Logan Thomas ($3,800) has caught at least four passes in three consecutive games and has found the end zone three times in eight games this season. Of the four, Dotson is preferred option because not only is he $900 cheaper than McLaurin but he's going to be about half as popular and that leverage is appealing. 

SEAHAWKS

From a fantasy perspective, the Seahawks have been a disappointment as Geno Smith ($5,800) and the offense have failed to hit the heights many expected. Some of that has been down to bad matchups and unfavorable game scripts, however. Sunday's meeting with Washington provides a golden opportunity to right the ship. The Commanders traded their top two pass-rushers, making one of the weaker defenses in the league even worse. Mac Jones and the Pats weren't quite able to take advantage, but Smith and the Seahawks have more firepower. We've been waiting all season for a breakout game from DK Metcalf ($6,800) and this could be just the spot. After recording just one catch against the Ravens last week, he's not going to be popular at all this week. Tyler Lockett ($6,100) will garner some looks because he's $700 cheaper but I'd still consider him decent leverage at sub-10 percent ownership. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100) continues to trend up. He's coming off a career-high six catches and he's put up double-digit fantasy points in three straight. I don't have much interest in the running game as Kenneth Walker ($6,800) seems overpriced now that Zach Charbonnet ($4,200) is seeing more work. 

• Favorite Commanders Stack: QB Howell + WR Dotson or WR McLaurin + WR Metcalf
• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + WR Metcalf/WR Lockett + WR Dotson + WR Smith-Njigba

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Justin Herbert + WR Keenan Allen + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown +/- WR Quentin Johnston

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb + TE Jake Ferguson 

QB Jared Goff + RB Austin Ekeler + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or TE Sam LaPorta

QB Trevor Lawrence + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Christian Kirk or WR Calvin Ridley + TE Evan Engram

QB Kyler Murray + RB Bijan Robinson + WR Marquise Brown + TE Trey McBride

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans or WR Chris Godwin + WR DeAndre Hopkins +/- TE Cade Otton

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. HOU ($8,600)

This one is pretty easy for me as I just can't pass up the chance to roster Chase when Tee Higgins is out. Chase had 15 catches for 192 yards and three TDs in Week 5 when Higgins last missed a game. His 55 fantasy points were the most any player has scored this season. The Bengals have a great matchup at home against the Texans. The only argument for fading him in tournaments is that he'll be the most popular of the expensive WRs and there are other good options.

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at LAC ($8,300)

There are a few reasons to like St. Brown. First, he excels against zone coverage, which is mostly what the Chargers play. Second, the Chargers defense has allowed more fantasy points to QBs than any team in the league and if Jared Goff is going to have a big game, St. Brown is the most likely beneficiary. Third, he's topped 100 receiving yards in five of his last games and will be less popular than Chase.

• Honorable Mentions: RB Tony Pollard ($7,300); WR CeeDee Lamb ($8,500)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Joe Mixon vs. HOU ($6,200)

As of Friday afternoon, Mixon is expected to be the most popular running back on the slate. I'm not saying that he isn't a good option, but we've seen him fail in these spots many times over the past couple seasons. I do think he's a decent option if you're affording the Bengals passing game but I'm doing the exact opposite. If I'm going to eat the chalk at some of the other positions then I want to make sure I get different at RB and fading Mixon helps accomplish that. For what it's worth, I nearly highlighted Bijan Robinson ($6,000) here but chose Mixon because he's expected to be twice as popular. Either way, I wouldn't roster them together in GPPs. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Tank Dell at CIN ($5,500)

The Texans will be without No. 1 WR Nico Collins and starting RB Dameon Pierce. We just saw Dell score two late TDs to beat the Bucs last week and his path to seeing a bump in target share is clear. The Texans will be forced to throw to keep pace with the Bengals and Dell is their most explosive player. We just saw C.J. Stroud throw for 470 yards, so the offense is plenty capable. Dalton Schultz ($4,900) and Noah Brown ($3,700) are also strong options when you factor in the leverage they offer. Even the returning Robert Woods ($4,000) can be considered. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Will Levis at TB ($5,300)

QB Baker Mayfield vs. TEN ($5,100)

QB Taylor Heinicke at ARI ($5,100)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. GB ($5,000)

RB Najee Harris vs. GB ($4,900)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. WAS ($4,100)

WR Quentin Johnston vs. DET ($4,100)

WR Robert Woods at CIN ($4,000)

WR Noah Brown at CIN ($4,000)

WR Trenton Irwin vs. HOU ($3,000)

WR Rondale Moore vs. ATL ($3,000)

WR Kyle Phillips at TB ($3,000)

TE Trey McBride vs. ATL ($3,500)

TE Cade Otton vs. TEN ($3,400)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at TB ($3,000)

TE Irv Smith vs. HOU ($2,700)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Tee Higgins vs. HOU

I've mentioned many times that Higgins being out is just another bump to the Bengals WRs, who are in a great spot at home against the Texans. 

• WR Nico Collins at CIN

It's a similar story with Collins being out for the Texans. Their remaining pass-catchers should see a bump in usage and project well as a result. 

Weather

• There might be some wind and rain in Jacksonville but it's too early to tell how significant. I'd check the forecast on Sunday if I were targetting either team's passing-game. I wouldn't worry about Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne or Evan Engram, regardless.