DFS Tournament Guide: Week 11 NFL Strategy

The Week 11 slate reminds me of NBA DFS, where much of the strategy revolves around loading up on players from teams that are missing multiple starters. The Falcons and 49ers, in particular, were hit hard by injuries the past couple weeks, removing players that account for a large portion of their carries and targets.

There is, of course, at least one crucial difference between basketball and football. An NBA team that gets "shut down" generally will still score at least 80 points and grab at least 30 rebounds. On the other hand, a rough day for an NFL team might mean half its usual yardage total and zero or one touchdowns. (More players on the field + fewer plays/possessions = higher variance.)

Betting odds from Vegas suggest the Niners and Falcons will still manage to put up points, with solid QB play and workable matchups perhaps mitigating the impact of injuries. In Atlanta's case, it certainly doesn't hurt to have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley left behind as healthy options. In fact, the offense might benefit if Matt Ryan is forced to utilize Ridley more often, rather than throwing short passes to Devonta Freeman (foot), Austin Hooper (knee) or Mohamed Sanu (traded).

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments section below, or on twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to price — the guys that are good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks that have strong odds to outperform their salaries. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Brian Hill, ATL at CAR ($4,800)

Hill elevates to the starting job at the perfect time, facing a Panthers defense that's 29th in PPR points allowed to running backs and 31st in yards per carry (5.1). The 24-year-old took advantage of Devonta Freeman's in-game foot injury to finish with 20 carries and two targets in last week's win over New Orleans, while Kenjon Barner was limited to one touch on 10 offensive snaps, and Qadree Ollison strictly played special teams. We should see a little more involvement from Barner and/or Ollison this week, but Hill is the likely workhorse.

• WR D.J. Moore, CAR vs. ATL ($5,900)

Coming off back-to-back weeks with triple-digit yardage and five straight games with at least five catches and eight targets, Moore is on pace for 96 receptions and 1,216 yards. The only thing missing is touchdowns, and he'll now face an Atlanta defense that's already given up 12 (t-24th) to wide receivers. The Falcons have been even worse in other metrics, ranking 27th in PPR points allowed (40.6 per game), 31st in catch rate (73.7 percent) and 31st in yards per target (10.1) against WRs. In any case, Moore would be a strong play at this price even if he had a difficult matchup.

Honorable Mentions: RB Raheem Mostert, SF vs. ARZ ($3,400), WR Deebo Samuel, SF vs. ARZ ($4,000)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Falcons (22.25) at Panthers (26.75)

I have a hard time pulling the trigger on a lineup with Kyle Allen ($5,300), but there's no way to deny it's a viable strategy when Moore and Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) are two of my favorite plays. The prices on Curtis Samuel ($5,300) and Greg Olsen ($3,900) also look reasonable, so it wouldn't be crazy to put four Panthers in the same lineup (Allen + 3). 

Keep in mind that Carolina's core group of skill-position players doesn't lose any carries or targets to backup running backs or tight ends, and even No. 3 Jarius Wright averages just 1.7 catches per game. That may not sound like a big deal, but it explains how a mediocre offense can support a quartet of fantasy-viable skill-position players, including the No. 1 overall asset. Most teams have No. 2 TEs, No. 2 RBs and No. 4 WRs that steal some volume... Carolina doesn't.

The other side of the contest is equally interesting, with the Mohamed Sanu trade followed by injuries for Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper. We should see plenty of volume for Julio Jones ($7,500) and Calvin Ridley ($5,500), in addition to the aforementioned Hill. However, I don't plan to roster Matt Ryan ($6,200) for a road game against a formidable pass defense, especially now that he has a  stripped-down receiving corps. The cheap volume with Hill and Ridley is more appealing.

• Best Stack: QB Allen + RB McCaffrey + RB Hill + WR Moore + WR Ridley

Texans (23.75) at Ravens (27.75)

This game has the highest over/under on the slate and also a reasonably tight point spread. Maybe it's my purple-colored glasses getting in the way, but I'm not sure I understand the second part. A Houston defense with no J.J. Watt (pectoral) is the furthest thing from intimidating, and the Ravens have been a much better team than the Texans once we account for things like point differential (plus-111 to plus-47) or DVOA (24.7% to 9.1%).

That said, Lamar Jackson ($7,700) is one of the few quarterbacks I actually like on this slate, so you know I'll find a way to stack the Texans-Ravens game even if I'm not so sure it will stay close. Unfortunately, Marquise Brown ($5,600) and Mark Andrews ($6,100) both feel a bit overpriced for players whose fantasy scoring has been all over the place since September. I do think Brown has a good chance to get behind the defense for a deep ball, and I also think he'll be lower-owned than Andrews.

The Houston side of the game isn't much easier to figure out, as I'm hesitant to spend up on Deshaun Watson ($6,800) or DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) against a defense that has consistently played well since the beginning of October. The Ravens' cornerback group of Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr might be the best in the league, and Earl Thomas patrols behind them at free safety.

On the other hand, Baltimore's front seven is no better than average, especially with DT Michael Pierce (ankle) looking doubtful for Sunday. I don't like Carlos Hyde ($4,600) when he's playing as an underdog, but this game could work out perfect for Duke Johnson ($4,000) if/when the Ravens put up a bunch of points. While his recent surge largely has been driven by touchdowns, Johnson also had three or more carries and four or more targets in four consecutive games before a Week 10 bye. There's also the matter of Hyde's fumbilitis potentially opening the door for Johnson to see more work (Hyde has four fumbles this year, including two the Texans lost).

• Best Stack: QB Jackson + RB Johnson + WR Hollywood

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, i.e., using Marlon Mack rather than Nyheim Hines in conjunction with the Indianapolis defense.   

• RB Kenyan Drake ($5,400) + D/ST Arizona Cardinals ($1,500) at SF

This is a major departure from the usual strategy seen in this space, utilizing a 10.5-point road underdog instead of a home favorite. It starts with my skepticism regarding the point spread, as the 49ers are on a short week and dealing with a slew of crucial injuries. They had five starters absent from practice both Wednesday and Thursday, with George Kittle (knee/ankle) and Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) joined by LT Joe Staley (finger), DT D.J. Jones (groin) and K Robbie Gould (quad), not to mention key backup Matt Breida (ankle).

We already saw Drake gouge the Niners a couple weeks ago, and he seems to have the lead backfield role after David Johnson was limited to six touches, 10 scrimmage yards and a lost fumble on 43 percent of snaps in last week's loss to Tampa Bay. Drake was held to 41 yards and no touchdown in the contest, but he at least got 16 touches and 64 percent of snaps. Both he and the Arizona defense should pay off their discount price tags if the team can merely keep the game close.

Honorable Mention: RB Dalvin Cook ($8,900) + D/ST Minnesota Vikings ($3,400) vs. DEN; RB Josh Jacobs ($6,900) + D/ST Oakland Raiders ($3,300) at 

High-Priced Hero

• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. ATL ($10,500)

The Falcons have a done a decent job limiting backfield production, but we said the same thing about the Texans, 49ers and Titans before they faced McCaffrey. Only Tampa Bay has been able to hold him under 29 DK points, with the running back averaging 37.4 in his other seven games. I guess I could keep writing things, but there's really no need to make this complicated. Eat the chalk; you'll like it.

Honorable Mentions: RB Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DEN ($8,900); WR Julio Jones, ATL at CAR ($7,500); WR Mike Evans, TB vs. NO ($7,400)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• TE Darren Waller, OAK at CIN ($5,500)

Mark Andrews ($6,100) is overpriced. Zach Ertz ($5,000) is facing the Patriots. George Kittle and Austin Hooper are injured. Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry and Gerald Everett are playing in primetime. Waller, meanwhile, is reasonably priced and facing an atrocious Cincinnati defense (more on that below). The problem here is volume, with Waller seeing 15 targets in three games since Tyrell Williams returned from a foot injury. And it isn't just Williams that creates a problem, as Hunter Renfrow and Jalen Richard also got more involved the past few weeks. 

Then we have the concerns about Oakland's overall passing volume, with the team ranked No. 6 in run-play rate (46 percent) and now set up as an 11.5-point favorite. There's a reason the Bengals haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to wide receivers and tight ends; they've faced just 29.3 pass attempts per game, third-fewest in the league. Waller should be efficient with whatever targets he gets, but he can't score fantasy points when he's busy blocking. I'd rather take the discount route at tight end this week.

Other Fades: WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU at BAL ($8,100); RB Alvin Kamara, NO at TB ($7,400); RB Tevin Coleman, SF vs. ARZ ($6,100) 

The SMASH Spot

Volume is king, no doubt. But we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that give players good odds to outperform their typical marks for YPA, YPC or YPT.

• RB Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CIN ($6,900)

This is the best matchup Jacobs will get all season, playing as a sizable favorite against a team ranked 30th in PPR points allowed to RBs (29.1), 28th in YPC allowed to RBs (4.8) and 29th in run defense DVOA (3.2%). The numbers against running backs, while already awful, actually would be even worse if not for two games where the Bengals regularly crashed down on Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, apparently believing it was a good idea to repeatedly force Lamar Jackson to keep the ball on zone-read plays. It's symptomatic of a team with no direction or coherent logic, i.e., the type of opponent that allows us to roster Jacobs even when his price reaches a new high. The rookie is working on a six-game streak with at least 15 carries, two targets and 80 yards.

Honorable Mention: WR Phillip Dorsett, NE at PHI ($4,200)

The Bargain Bin

QB Kyle Allen, CAR vs. ATL ($5,300)

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. BUF ($5,100)

RB Kalen Ballage, MIA vs. BUF ($4,300)

RB Duke Johnson, HOU at BAL ($4,000)

RB Raheem Mostert, SF vs. ARZ ($3,400)

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX at IND ($4,500)

WR Phillip Dorsett, NE at PHI ($4,200)

WR Auden Tate, CIN at OAK ($4,000)

WR Deebo Samuel, SF vs. ARZ ($4,000)

WR Demaryius Thomas, NYJ at WAS ($3,900)

WR Russell Gage, ATL at CAR ($3,300)

WR Allen Hurns, MIA vs. BUF ($3,200)

TE Ross Dwelley, SF vs. ARZ ($3,400)

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NE ($3,200)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. BUF ($2,500)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals at SF ($1,500)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can formulate plans ahead of time for the best way to respond once inactive lists are released.

• RB Ty Johnson (concussion), DET vs. DAL

J.D. McKissic ($4,600) played 70 percent of snaps last week in Chicago, with 10 carries and seven targets. I like him at this price if Johnson can't play, having made a case for the matchup in my start/sit column earlier this week.

• RB Jordan Howard (shoulder), PHI vs. NE

Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Howard still hadn't been cleared for contact as of Friday morning, despite having a bye week to recover from the stinger he suffered in a Week 9 win over Chicago. We could be looking at a heavy workload for Miles Sanders ($4,100), who is averaging 4.4 YPC and 11.3 YPT. The matchup is a tough one, but the Patriots at least have been beatable on the ground at times, whereas their pass defense was consistently dominant until Week 9 in Baltimore.

• QB Matthew Stafford, DET vs. DAL

I'm operating under the assumption Stafford won't play, but the outlook could change if he returns to practice Friday. His $6,000 price tag would be tempting in that scenario, although he may have physical limitations and the matchup isn't great.

• WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and TE George Kittle (knee/ankle), SF vs. ARZ

The 49ers' top two pass catchers both appear questionable-to-doubtful, likely leaving Deebo Samuel ($4,000) as one of the top values on the slate. Backup tight end Ross Dwelley ($3,400) would also be a solid choice, coming off seven targets and 92 percent snap share in Monday's loss to Seattle.

• TE Jack Doyle (shoulder), IND vs. JAX

Doyle returned to a limited practice Thursday, so he'll probably end up playing. If not, Eric Ebron ($3,600) becomes an obvious choice for cash games and also a strong play in tournaments. It doesn't hurt that No. 3 tight end Mo Alie-Cox (hip) is banged up as well.

• WR Will Fuller (hamstring), HOU at BAL

I have a hard time backing any of the Texans' wide receivers against an improved Baltimore defense, but we can at least make an argument for Kenny Stills ($4,600) if Fuller is out another week. Stills was a disappointment for season-long fantasy managers who picked him up, but he did play at least 85 percent of snaps in three consecutive weeks before Houston's bye, averaging 3.7 catches for 59.7 yards on 4.7 targets.

• CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), NO at TB

Lattimore's expected absence is good news for Mike Evans ($7,400), who has been notoriously unproductive against the Saints' top cornerback, including a Week 5 goose egg this year. Chris Godwin ($7,300) lit up New Orleans for 7-125-2 in that contest, but the rematch looks equally favorable for both wide receivers.

Weather Watch

Everything looks good down south and out west, while a trio of Mid-Atlantic games have some potential to be impacted by rain, wind and/or cold temperatures. Patriots-Eagles has the most worrisome forecast, followed by Texans-Ravens and Jets-Redskins. To be fair, none of the three appears brutal, with projections on Friday morning calling for wind around 15 mph and temperatures in the high-30s. I'll start to worry if winds push to 20 mph or considerable precipitation enters the picture.

Adjusting for FanDuel Prices

The prices listed in this article are from DraftKings, and while most of the logic applies to any DFS site, there are a few specific changes I'll need to apply for FanDuel:

• FD prices Lamar Jackson ($8,800) a bit closer to the other quarterbacks, so you know I'm all about it. Better prices for Hollywood ($5,600) and Mark Andrews ($6,900) are a nice bonus.
• Josh Allen ($7,800) and John Brown ($5,900) are relatively cheaper on FD than DK, with the latter fully accounting for a favorable matchup.
• The price gap between McCaffrey ($10,500) and Dalvin Cook ($8,600) is wide enough that I actually prefer the latter, or at least it's wide enough that I'll play both.
• Tevin Coleman ($6,700) is priced much better than on DK, but I still prefer Raheem Mostert ($4,600) and the extra salary left over to play with.
• It's easier to fit Jackson, McCaffrey and Cook in the same lineup when we got nice prices on Calvin Ridley ($5,500), Terry McLaurin ($5,500) and D.J. Chark ($6,000).
• Kyle Rudolph ($4,500) is someone I generally avoid in DFS tournaments, but he's awfully cheap for a guy with four touchdowns and 22 targets the past five weeks. The Red Zone Reindeer should be priced in the low $5,000s while Adam Thielen (hamstring) is out.

Good Luck!