This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks for Circa Survivor and Circa Millions, Week 1
The first day of Sunday football for the season is absolutely one of the best days in the calendar year after Thanksgiving, 4th of July, St. Patrick's Day, my birthday, the MLB Draft, the entire month of June (College World Series), and New Year's. But it's right up there! Looking forward to eating like a total slob this - and every - Sunday for the rest of the year. I got a full slate in Week 1, but here's a taste.
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LA Rams (+176) @ Detroit Lions (-4.5) | Total: 52.5
A rematch of last year's Wild Card showdown in Detroit, it's Matthew Stafford and the Rams looking for a cold dish of payback against Jared Goff and the Lions. The first Sunday Night Football contest is a matchup of pure gasoline.
The Rams, offensively, are set in a great position with a great QB, star RB, and sick 1-2 punch at WR. Their offense averaged 23.8 PPG last year, good for eighth in the NFL. Kyren Williams ran for 1,144 yards (3rd in NFL) and 12 tuddies in only 12 games. The 1-2 WR punch with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua saw the latter break the rookie receiving record for catches (105 -9th) and yards (1,486 - 4th). Kupp only played 12 games but wasn't fully healthy all year. Now he's back. There are enough weapons in this offense to carry LA to the playoffs again.
The problem is how their defense just got gutted. Losing Aaron Donald, a future HOF, is irreplaceable. 'Backer, Ernest Jones, went to the Titans. The secondary is in shambles after losing Jalen Ramsey and his replacement, Darious Williams. Tre'Davious White is there, but the man has only played 10 games in the last two seasons. This unit wasn't awful a year ago, but still were back half of the NFL in PPG allowed (22.2) and Yards Per Game (337.9).
With all the changes the Rams had, it's fair to wonder how their defense is going to stop a Lions offense ready to go hunting after blowing a three-possession lead in San Fran in the NFC Championship game. A relentless football team - especially at home - that embodies their ferocious head coach, Dan Campbell, is one to be feared. Last season, Detroit's offense scored 30+ points in five of their eight home games en route to a 6-2 mark. Presumably, the offense only got better led by Goff, the two-headed RB dragon in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs a.k.a Alvin Kamara 2.0, the elite WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and next big TE Sam LaPorta.
Defensively, Detroit was on par with the Rams in YPG and PPG allowed. Good enough to compliment a great offense. However, the Lions beefed up this season. They traded for Bucs standout CB Carlton Davis and drafted Alabama CB Terrion Arnold in the first round this spring. Their second-best rush defense in the NFL (88.8 YPG) should be intact. That should be a huge help when they look to slow down the Rams running attack of Williams and Blake Corum. The bigger task is testing out those two new corners against Puka and Kupp. Puka went a scorched Earth 9/181/1 last season, and now Kupp is healthy.
I have the Lions making and winning the Super Bowl this year. The offense needs to take another step forward, while the defense needs to be just top 15. The big narrative in this game is the Stafford revenge round two spot. Personally, I don't see it as enough. I see the Lions offense having a field day. ARSB, the backs, and LaPorta should all have very strong games en route to a home opener win. But in the name of all this offense, this is the play I'm going with.
Pick: Lions TT Over 28.5 points -108 (FanDuel)
In my first full season with RotoWire, I will be allowing people to follow along with me this year in my quest to win the Circa Survivor and Circa Millions contests. Last year, I finished top 10 in the 9,300 entry - 9.3 million dollar pool (thanks, Denver Broncos). This season, the pot is well over 13,500 entries (13.5+ million dollars) and counting. Looking forward to tracking this in my column each week as long as I'm able to.
Circa Millions Entry Week 1
For anybody who doesn't know what this contest is, you simply pick five games against the spread each week. This is a lot more manageable than Circa Survivor because you can't get eliminated. There's also tons of prizes throughout the season with the top one being $1million bucks to first place. Last year, I did three, but this season I'm doing just one. One more thing, these are CONTEST lines Circa finalizes and gives out every Thursday afternoon. Line movement after that doesn't exist for the contest.
Pick 1: Lions -3.5
See above.
Pick 2: Jets +4.5
Frankly, this looks to be too many points for a team that has the best front-to-back defense in the NFL. The Jets have weapons in Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Mike Williams. Obviously how Aaron Rodgers looks will decide everything. I expect him to be a bit rusty in the first half, but get it going in the second.
Pick 3: Dolphins -3.5
I love this game in general. High total. Elite playmakers. Fun. The Jags secondary is vulnerable here against the high-flying Miami offense led by the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins team total is 26.5, something they smashed the over on nine times last year, six of those times being in their own building. Jags should be able to score, but the Fins secondary is strong now adding Jalen Ramsey and Jordan Poyer. It's more about the front seven injuries of Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Regardless, the hook doesn't bother me.
Pick 4: Browns -2
Cleveland was a terror at home last season going 8-1. The defense is stacked from the inside out. The offensive line is dealing with some injuries like Jedrick Wills, who will miss this game. But they still have a very capable unit. The pass-catching group is solid, as is the running back room even without Nick Chubb. Deshaun Watson just has to be decent, a captain of the ship. Dallas' secondary is hurting with Trevon Diggs recovering from a torn ACL and Daron Bland is out for at least the first four games with a stress fracture in his foot. There's going to be constant pressure on Dak Prescott here. I think the Browns put a hurting on Dallas.
Pick 5: Cardinals +6.5
I consistently talked about in 2023 how the Arizona Cardinals were the highest-variance team in the NFL. As a matter of fact, they're going to be one of highest ones again this year. When they decide to show up and play, they're a nightmare. The only catch is how do you know when they are going to show up? With Marvin Harrison Jr. in the fold, Zona has an exciting offense that can score. And facing a Buffalo defense that lost Tre' White AND Jordan Poyer is definitely an opportunity. The Bills offense is also going through big changes after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Josh Allen may be asked to do even more than usual. The game will be high scoring, but at the end of the day this is too many points. I don't think Arizona only covers. They're live to win this thing outright.
Circa Survivor Week 1 Picks
This contest is as simple as pick a straight up winner each week, but you can't use the same team twice. Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks. All in all, you need to go 20-0 to cross the finish line. Here's what I'm running with in my two entries the first week.
Circa Survivor Entry 1 , Week 1
Pick: Lions
I'm a big Lions backer this week. The truth is, I was all in on Cincy for the last week, which is presumably still going to be the most popular pick this week. The Tee Higgins injury combined with Ja'Marr Chase limited snaps being talked a bunch, I had to dip on the Bengals. Miami was an option for me, but ultimately I went with Detroit because they don't have many great spots this year at first look. This isn't an easy game, but it's winnable in a brutal Week 1 slate. Additionally, it's a contrarian pick that has a strong chance of winning where so many people will be on Cincy, Buffalo and New Orleans.
Circa Survivor Entry 2, Week 1
Pick: Seahawks
Seattle will undoubtedly be one of the most popular selections in the first week. At home against a rookie QB. I have major PTSD flashbacks for having to lose my fortune on Denver last year, and now have to go against them. Anyhow, Seattle has a strong roster capable of making the playoffs in 2024. While I think Bo Nix has a lot of potential as a QB in the NFL, especially under the tutelage of Sean Payton, I believe there could be a lot of mistakes in his first game.
For the rest of my action, make sure you check me out on Twitter. Best of luck this weekend.
