Beating the Book: Cowboys Win at Lambeau, Seattle Stays Hot + Full Week 10 ATS Picks

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

With Week 9 in the books, we've officially reached the midway point in the 2022 NFL season.

I'd love to say we should take this opportunity to exhale, reflect on the first half and reset before the stretch run. But there will be no resting or relaxing for us here at Beating the Book. The NFL never stops, and we have only one more day to prepare for another Thursday Night banger.

Looking at the bigger picture, despite 136 games being played thus far, it feels like we're still struggling to get a read on the majority of the league. The undefeated Eagles are definitely good – we can bank on that. The Chiefs are also very good, and so are the Bills – even after a big-time letdown in New York last weekend. Beyond those three, the debate rages on as to who is the fourth-best team in the NFL.

In terms of one simple metric, point differential, the numbers point to the Cowboys or the Bengals. Those are the only two teams to join Philly, Kansas City and Buffalo with a differential of plus-40 or better on the season. Fresh off of a dominating victory over the Saints on Monday night, Baltimore (+39) is knocking on the door, while teams like Minnesota (+32), San Francisco (+29) Seattle (+21) and the Jets (+20) aren't far behind. Ironically, the Patriots have a better differential (+37) than most of those teams, but at 5-4 they currently sit in last place in the way-more-competitive-than-expected AFC East. 

Anyway, this is all a long-winded way of saying that even after nine weeks of football, we still have very few teams we can comfortably bank on. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to change anytime soon.

Surveying the Week 10 board, we're presented with a mostly competitive slate. The Eagles (-10.5 vs. Washington) are the only double-digit favorite, though the 49ers (-7.0 vs. LAC), Raiders (-6.0 vs. IND) and Chiefs (-9.5 vs. JAX) are also giving at least a touchdown at home. 

Meanwhile, beginning with Thursday night's Falcons-Panthers showdown, we have seven games featuring spreads of 3.5 points or less, as of Wednesday. 

Before we dig in on Week 10, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 9 picks.

Last week: 6-7 ATS; 9-4 straight up; best bet won (Patriots -5.5 vs. Colts)

On the season: 68-64-4 ATS; 87-48-1 straight up; 3-6 best bets

Best calls of Week 9: 

• In the end, Bill Belichick loves nothing more than scheming for an inexperienced quarterback -- especially one who might be without his starting running back. Pats win and cover at home to keep up in the competitive AFC East.
• Mike Vrabel has had Andy Reid's number of late – Tennessee handled Kansas City 27-3 in Week 7 last season – so I don't see the Titans getting blown out, even if there's a significant gap in overall talent.

Worst calls of Week 9:

• With Buffalo coming off of a messy win over Green Bay on Sunday night, I expect the Bills to refocus and lay the wood at Laveranues Coles Stadium.
• After allowing 440 total yards to the Browns, Cincinnati will have its work cut out for it slowing down D'Onta Foreman. I think the Bengals get the job done, but I'll take Carolina to cover.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via DraftKings, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers

This will be the second meeting in a 12-day span for these two teams, which played one of the most entertaining (and controversial) games of the season in Week 8. After Atlanta pulled out an overtime victory, both teams fell flat in Week 9 – particularly the Panthers, who went down 35-0 at halftime to the Ja'Marr Chase-less Bengals and ended up pulling PJ Walker in favor of Baker Mayfield.

The Falcons hung tough against the banged-up Chargers but managed only seven points in the second half against one of the league's worst run defenses. Marcus Mariota missing a wide open Kyle Pitts on a late deep ball felt like an accurate summation of the Falcons' season thus far. 

While the Falcons look like the better team on paper, they have the league's second-worst defense and allowed Carolina to rack up a season-high (by far) 478 yards of total offense in Week 8. These teams are much more similar than Atlanta would care to admit, but I trust the Falcons to maintain a higher floor week-to-week. 

With that in mind, I'll back Atlanta to win and cover on a short week, but I wish I felt better about it.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Panthers 20

🇩🇪 Sunday Munich Game 🇩🇪

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The first ever NFL regular season game played in Germany will feature one of the league's best quarterbacks, as well as Tom Brady.

I'm (mostly) joking, but it's still jarring to see Smith at 20/1 to win MVP, while Brady is all the way up at 100/1. If you're wondering, Aaron Rodgers (200/1) currently has the same MVP odds as Taysom Hill and Jared Goff. 

Before we get too off track, it's worth noting that Tampa Bay was able to end its skid last week against the Rams. But after watching that entire game, I didn't come away feeling like the Bucs had really solved anything.

As has been the case all year, Tampa still cannot run the ball or generate chunk plays. The Bucs averaged only 4.1 yards per play, punted on eight of 13 drives and failed to reach 20 points for the third time in four weeks – all against a Rams team that rivals only Green Bay in terms of adjusted misery per snap (per NFL Next Gen Stats, powered by Amazon).

Long story short: I gained no trust in the Bucs last week, and I'm struggling to discern why they're favored in a neutral-site game. Seattle has done nothing but take care of business of late. The Seahawks are 6-3 ATS on the year, while the Bucs are a league-worst 2-7-1. 

Brady has never lost outside the United States, but he's also never been on a team that can't move the ball. Give me Seattle to win outright in Munich.

Side note: The last NFL game played in Germany was a Giants-Chargers preseason game in Berlin in 1994. If this promo doesn't fire you up, check your pulse.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Buccaneers 20

Sunday Early Games

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills

This line is predicated on the status of Josh Allen, who's dealing with an elbow injury and remains questionable as of mid-week. The line sat a full 2.0 points higher on Tuesday, so there's at least some belief that Allen will either be limited or sit out this game entirely. 

If Allen is able to play, the Bills should still be in a decent spot to take care of business at home. The Vikings have been the ultimate bend-but-don't-break defense thus far, but at some point their luck has to run out. If it's Case Keenum at quarterback for Buffalo, that changes the ceiling of the offense, but Keenum is a relatively high-floor backup with plenty of starting experience.

With Allen's status completely up in the air, I'll take the Vikings to cover for now, but I reserve the right to update my pick later in the week.

The pick: Bills 27 – Vikings 23

Detroit Lions (+3.0) at Chicago Bears

It's time for me to eat crow on the Bears. I thought this team would be a complete disaster on both ends, and while they've certainly had some disastrous stretches this season, Chicago is beginning to look like the second-best team in the NFC North.

That might not be saying all that much, but the Bears have clearly turned a corner on offense. A noticeably more comfortable Justin Fields is in the midst of the best stretch of his career, and he leads all quarterbacks in total fantasy points over the last five weeks. As a team, the Bears have piled up 32, 29 and 33 points in their last three games – unheard of for an offense I compared to a service academy earlier this year.

The issue, of course, is Chicago allowed 49 points to Dallas in Week 8 and 35 to Miami in Week 9. As it turns out, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith are difficult pieces to replace.

As the Bears' offense continues to level up, the Lions' attack looks nothing like it did early in the season. The Lions found a way to beat a masochistic Packers team on Sunday, but they managed only 15 points and generated just 137 passing yards. Detroit led the NFL in scoring through the first four weeks of the season (140 points) but has put up only 48 points in its last four games.

Ultimately, these teams aren't separated by much, but I'll jump on the wave of momentum the Bears' offense seems to be riding. Fields keeps it rolling and the Bears cover at home.

The pick: Bears 30 – Lions 26

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Well, well, well. The Jags did the unimaginable last week and came from behind to win their first one-score game of the season. I'll be honest: I bet the Raiders, watched them go up 17-0, and assumed it was money in the bank. What I neglected to remember is that the Raiders are statistically the greatest team in NFL history at blowing 17-point leads. 

Vegas had everything rolling in the first half, led by a huge bounceback effort from Davante Adams, who was held to just one catch in Week 8 against New Orleans. But the second half could not have been a more different story. The Raiders crossed midfield on only one of their five second-half drives, while the Jags rode Travis Etienne to 17 unanswered points. With James Robinson now in New York, Etienne is clearly the engine of the Jags' offense, and while his heavy workload is borderline-concerning, he passes the eye test with flying colors.

It will likely fly under the radar, but last week was pretty easily Trevor Lawrence's best overall game of the season – and by default, his career. He's had days with more yards and more touchdowns, but Lawrence was accurate and decisive throughout multiple gotta-have-it drives in the second half.

The question, of course, is can Lawrence play to that level against teams that aren't the Raiders? The Chiefs will obviously provide a much, much more difficult test for a quarterback who's mostly struggled to string together above-average games. Jacksonville has the talent and the running game to put pressure on KC's defense, but it's tough to put much faith in a young Jags' defense slowing down Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

Last week should serve as a much-needed confidence boost for Jacksonville, but this game should be an easy victory for Kansas City at home. Chiefs win comfortably and cover.

The pick: Chiefs 33 – Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins

With the Browns coming off of a bye and Miami narrowly escaping an upset in Chicago, this is shaping up to be one of the tightest games of the week.

With a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Miami has proven it can pile up points against anyone. The running game looked better last week with Jeff Wilson in the mix, but the Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle combo through the air is what really drives this offense. The Dolphins are basically a Big 12 team masquerading as an NFL franchise.

For the most part, the Browns have struggled on defense this season, but the last time we saw them, they completely neutralized one of the few offenses in the league capable of going score-for-score with Miami. Defending the run has actually been the biggest pitfall for Cleveland, so this may not be a bad matchup – particularly if Denzel Ward, who practiced Monday, is back in the mix. 

Although I'm tempted to take the Browns outright, Miami hasn't lost at home with a healthy Tua. I'll back the Dolphins to win a close one, but the Browns cover. I also like the over on 48.5 points.

The pick: Dolphins 29 – Browns 26

Houston Texans (+5.0) at New York Giants

It's been a rough year for double-digit favorites, and the Texans were one of several big underdogs who covered last week. Houston's first-half performance might've been its best half of the season, but if you give Davis Mills enough chances, he will turn the ball over. That's exactly what happened in the second half as Houston was outscored 15 to 3. 

The Giants don't have nearly as much firepower as the Eagles, so I think Houston has a good chance to hang around. With that said, the Texans' defense is not equipped to stop Saquon Barkley.

This line has moved a full 2.0 points in favor of Houston, so that does give me some pause. But coming out of the bye, I like the Giants to cover and win their seventh one-score game of the season.

The pick: Giants 20 – Texans 14

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game feels destined to be the most frustrating of the week. The Saints had an opportunity to make a statement at home Monday night against Baltimore and came out with their worst performance of the season. Andy Dalton issued a stern reminder that he is, in fact, Andy Dalton, and the Saints were unable to get Alvin Kamara loose on the ground or via the pass.

In the Saints' defense, this was the first time they'd ever faced Lamar Jackson, so it's entirely possible that they weren't aware of his skill set. Either way, Jackson is now 27-2 in his first matchup against an opponent (the only two teams he's never faced are Green Bay and Chicago).

After Monday night, I'm pretty close to officially declaring the Saints a bad team. I'm very close. I get why they're favored here – before Monday night, Andy Dalton was putting up points – but I'm leaning Pittsburgh, particularly if T.J. Watt is able to able return.

Regardless, the Mike Tomlin Effect – off a bye, no less – should be enough for Pittsburgh to muck this game up and keep it close. I cannot emphasize enough how much of a stay-away this game is for me, but it's my professional obligation to make a pick.

As such, I'll begrudgingly take the Steelers to win outright at home.

The pick: Steelers 17 – Saints 14

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

If Ryan Tannehill is able to return for this game, it's hard not to love the Titans in this spot. My only hesitation is wondering if the Broncos maybe, possibly unlocked something with that final, game-winning drive against Jacksonville in London before the bye.

Chances are, the answer is a resounding "no", but that was one of the few times all season that Russell Wilson has looked like his former self. Denver should look a little better coming out of the bye, but this is a team that traded a key defensive piece in Bradley Chubb – a signal that the front office knows where this roster stands.

On the other side, Tennessee couldn't pull out the win at Arrowhead on Sunday night, but the defense made a big-time statement. If the Titans can hold the Chiefs to 17 points in regulation, you have to like their chances against a Broncos offense that averages 15.1 points per game.

Titans win a close one in Nashville but lose the cover on a late Denver touchdown. 

The pick: Titans 16 – Broncos 14

Sunday Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (+6.0) at Las Vegas Raiders

This is probably the most excited I've been for any game this season. The Colts parting ways with Frank Reich and hiring someone with zero coaching experience is equal parts unprecedented and completely reckless in the coolest way possible. Question Jim Irsay all you want, but the man understands comedy.

As someone astutely pointed out on Twitter, this really does feel like a Friday Night Lights storyline.

"Do you want to coach the Indianapolis Colts?"
"What are you talking about?"

The reaction to the move, which was announced Monday, has been fantastic to follow. In general, it's usually not a good thing when everyone is beginning their tweets with "Look, Jeff Saturday is a very nice guy, but…"

To me, though, the real question is: If Saturday flops, do the Colts try out a new franchise legend each week for the remainder of the season? Week 11, home for the Eagles: Give Reggie Wayne a shot. Week 12, home for the Steelers: Call up Edgerrin James. Week 13, at the Cowboys: It's Pierre Garcon time.

On a somewhat serious note, I unfortunately don't see this being quite as much of a disaster as I'd like it to be. Obviously it would be hilarious if the Colts come out and run The Play on their first possession, but I think we tend to forget that Saturday isn't doing this job alone. He has an entire, experienced coaching staff around him that will, sadly, prevent this from reaching maximum comedy value.

On the other side, the Raiders improbably come into this game as a distant second in terms of dysfunction. I can assure you that would not be the case if they were facing literally any other opponent. After The No-Show in New Orleans, the Raiders followed up with a second-half collapse in Jacksonville on Sunday.

Two days later, Vegas parted ways with one of its 2019 first-round picks, safety Johnathan Abram. That means the Raiders have now released a 2019 first-rounder (Abram), both of their 2020 first-rounders (Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette), and their 2021 first-round pick (Alex Leatherwood). Whiffing on that many picks in three consecutive drafts is difficult to do – gotta tip your cap.

Strangely, this is suddenly an extremely high-pressure scenario for Las Vegas. You can't be the team that loses to the guy who openly questioned why he would even be considered for an NFL coaching job. You just can't. If the Raiders do find a way to lose this game, Josh McDaniels probably meets the same fate as Frank Reich.

I don't think they do it in overly convincing fashion, but I'll take Las Vegas to win by a touchdown and get the narrow cover.

The pick: Raiders 24 – Colts 17

Dallas Cowboys (-5.0) at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay hit rock bottom for the fourth week in a row in Detroit. Dallas is coming off of a bye in Mike McCarthy's return to Lambeau Field. The Packers picked up more key injuries last week and have almost no hope of salvaging their season.

That's all I got. Thinking about the Packers is too exhausting – I can't do it anymore. Cowboys win and cover against a Green Bay team that feels like its close to giving up. I'm even making this my best bet.

The pick: Cowboys 28 – Packers 17

Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) at Los Angeles Rams

Much like the Bucs sitting as favorites over the Seahawks at a neutral site, I don't know that I agree with the Cardinals getting 3.0 points here. To be fair, Arizona hasn't done much to convince me that they're a good team, but on the other hand, the Rams have made it VERY clear that they are in deep trouble.

Los Angeles does get this game at home, but they have a bottom-five home field advantage, and I trust that the Cardinals can at least move the ball. Will they finish out those drives with touchdowns? That's up for debate, but it's been a solid month-and-a-half since the Rams have looked like anything but a bottom-10 team.

Ironically, the Rams' last win against a team other than the Panthers came against this very Cardinals team in Week 3. That was a 20-12 victory for the Rams, but Arizona ran 35 more plays, had eight more first downs and converted seven more third or fourth downs.

I feel the same way about the Rams as I do the Packers. They're a sinking ship with seemingly no way out. Give me the Cardinals to pull the minor upset on the road.

The pick: Cardinals 21 – Rams 17

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers

Now a week removed from their bye, the Chargers are (still) down several key pieces, but this should be a fun finish to the Sunday slate. We're still in wait-and-see mode on the status of Deebo Samuel, but the hope is that we'll see him and Christian McCaffrey on the field together for the first time since Week 7.

If Samuel is good to go, this should be a great spot for the Niners to run all over the Chargers, who will be without Joey Bosa and could be missing Jerry Tillery, as well. Los Angeles remains a bottom-five team in rush defense EPA and just allowed 200-plus yards to the Falcons.

This is a bigger number than I expected – the Chargers do still have a major advantage at quarterback – but given the lack of weapons for Justin Herbert, I'll side with the Niners to win and cover.

The pick: 49ers 28 – Chargers 20

Monday Night Football

Washington Commanders (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Commanders have officially graduated from bad team getting lucky to the Frisky Zone. The offense remains a major issue – Washington has scored 8, 10, 17, 12, 23, 17 and 17 points in his last six games – but the Commanders' defense is rounding into form. It couldn't quite hold up late against Minnesota last week, but Washington held a two-score lead into the fourth quarter.

The Eagles, meanwhile, dodged a potential trap game against the Texans after a sluggish first half. Say what you will about Philly's schedule, but they're clearly an elite team that's had no true letdowns thus far. The Eagles will continue to feel the absence of Jordan Davis, but on the whole this is an exceptionally healthy team that should be able to suffocate Taylor Heinicke.

I'm well aware that we've been burned in this situation before – most recently by the Bills – but I like Philadelphia to bounce back from a semi-lackluster showing in Houston and win this game by two scores.

The pick: Eagles 28 – Commanders 14