Beating the Book: Can Bengals, Raiders Get Back on Track in Week 3?

The first two weeks of the NFL season have flown by, and we're already on to a tricky Week 3. After a reasonably successful Week 1 showing, we took a collective step back in Week 2, finishing just 7-9 ATS and 9-7 straight up.

Let me be clear: there are no excuses when it comes to Beating the Book and there never will be. With that said, we ended up on the wrong side of not one, not two but all three of the wildly improbable comebacks that defined Week 2. While the Dolphins' upset of the Ravens did give us the cover, the Raiders blowing a 20-0 halftime lead – and the Browns taking part in literally one of the most statistically unlikely collapses of all-time – ultimately doomed our straight-up picks.

But hey, a man's game charges a man's price. And as one of the great gamblers of our time once said, sometimes that's the way she goes:

While the trio of wild comebacks were a crushing blow, we did hit our best bet of the week (Packers -10.0) thanks to the Bears' complete lack of an offense. After the 49ers/the weather let us down in Week 1, hopefully this is something to build on.

On a separate note, I think my single worst pick of the week may have been blindly rolling with the Colts – although I will say I would've at least taken the Jags to cover had I known Michael Pittman and Shaquille Leonard would end up sitting out. Even with those absences, however, I did not foresee the Jags coming out with maybe their best two-way game in four years. I'm dangerously close to believing that this might be a decent football team.

Anyway, we're on to Week 3, which, like Week 1, features a ton of road favorites – nine to be exact. The Chiefs (-6.5 at Indianapolis) and the Eagles (-6.5 at Washington) lead the way, while the Bills and Bengals are also favored by at least 5.0 points.

At first glance, there aren't too many games that feel like gimmes – even if we're just talking straight-up picks. The Chiefs should be able to kick the Colts while they're down, and the Eagles certainly looked the part of a Super Bowl contender on Monday night, but the first two weeks of the season have been a harsh reminder that nothing in the NFL is guaranteed. Even the Jags-Chargers matchup – seemingly a layup for the Chargers a few weeks ago – has some juice with Jacksonville coming in hot and Justin Herbert banged up.

Before we dive into Week 3, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 2 picks.

Last week: 7-9 ATS; 9-7 straight up; best bet won

On the season: 16-16 ATS; 20-11-1 straight up; 1-1 best bets

Best call of Week 2: 

• Unlike Minnesota, Chicago's defense isn't good enough to make the Packers pay for their lack of options at receiver. Key injuries on the offensive line, and the lack of a true No. 1 pass-catcher, are big concerns, but the Packers should have no trouble bouncing back at home.

Worst calls of Week 2 (another tie):

• Even if a cocktail of emotions, home field advantage and horrendous decisions by Denver delivered the Seahawks a Week 1 win, to me they at least proved that they'll be a formidable opponent week in and week out.
• As long as that line can keep Burrow upright for most of the day, the Bengals should move the ball enough to easily out-pace Dallas' output with Cooper Rush under center.

NFL Week 3 Picks: Eagles, Raiders among nine road favorites

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via the DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday at 10:00 AM ET.

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) at Cleveland Browns

Bills-Rams in Week 1, Chargers-Chiefs in Week 2 and now… get fired up for Steelers-Browns in Week 3, baby. These are a pair of 1-1 teams coming off of two very different but very ugly losses. The Browns controlled their matchup against the Jets for 58 minutes, while the Steelers found themselves on the wrong end of a predictable rock fight against the Patriots.

Right now, the Steelers look like the better defense, but the Browns look like the more credible offense. Through two games, they've racked up more rushing yards (an NFL-best 401 yards) than 11 teams, including the Steelers, have passing yards. The first two weeks of The Great Trubisky Experiment have not been encouraging. He currently ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.1) and second-last in yards per completion (8.6). It's starting to feel like we might be one or two more duds away from the start of the Kenny Pickett era.

Either way, even without T.J. Watt, the Pittsburgh defense always finds a way to create havoc and keep the Steelers in games. I think it happens for a third straight week. Give me the Browns to win at home but the Steelers to cover. I'll also be on the U38.0 points – currently the lowest total of the week (even lower than Texans-Bears, which says a lot).

The pick: Browns 17 – Steelers 13

Sunday Early Games

Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) at New England Patriots

Through three quarters last week, I felt foolish for taking the Dolphins to cover in Baltimore. Then the fourth quarter happened and suddenly the Ravens' three-touchdown lead completely evaporated. While the monumental collapse by the Baltimore defense is a major red flag, the Ravens should get some credit for building that initial lead against a very good Dolphins team.

However, Baltimore still hasn't proven it can run the ball with players not named Lamar Jackson, and they've relied on some massive chunk plays thus far. Last week alone, Baltimore scored on a kickoff return by Devin Duvernay, a 79-yard run by Jackson and a 75-yard reception by Rashod Bateman. All of that makes me think twice about this game considering the Pats held Miami to 20 points at home in Week 1. 

With that said, the Patriots' offense still looks like one of the worst units in the league. They've faced two good defenses thus far, but that doesn't excuse the poor decision-making by Mac Jones and general lack of explosion. Thus far, New England has scored on only 21.1 percent of its drives – ahead of only the Seahawks (17.6%) and Colts (16.7%). The running game did show some signs of life against Pittsburgh, but they'll need to be able to air it out to beat Baltimore, which has allowed the most air yards on completions (427) in the league by a wide margin.

Quite frankly, I don't see that happening. Pats keep it close, but I like Baltimore to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Ravens 24 – Patriots 20

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Just how far have the Colts fallen since the season started? Less than two weeks ago, this line sat at Chiefs -2.5, and it's now ballooned to -6.5 (some books have it as high as -7.0).

In a week with very few lopsided matchups, I really like the Chiefs to roll against a Colts team that's struggled to move the ball against the Texans and the Jaguars. I'm not convinced Indianapolis is as much of a disaster as it appeared to be on Sunday, but even if Michael Pittman and Shaquille Leonard return for Week 3, they're not enough to close the gap against Patrick Mahomes and Co.

In some ways, the Chiefs were lucky to avoid getting tripped up by the Chargers in Week 2. Mahomes got away with some big mistakes, and the defense stepped up with an unlikely, 100-yard pick-six, but Kansas City still gets credit for finding a way to win against an elite opponent. And, of course, the bonus of playing on Thursday night is the extra half-week of preparation.

If Pittman and Leonard play, the Colts have a chance to compete in what almost feels like a must-win game at home. But until proven otherwise, we have to operate under the assumption that the Colts are not a good team. I like the Chiefs to easily roll to 3-0 heading into next Sunday night's showdown with the Bucs in Tampa.

The pick: Chiefs 34 – Colts 20

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

After losses to the Browns and Giants, I feel pretty confident in saying the Panthers are not a good team. Baker Mayfield doesn't look notably better, and Carolina hasn't demonstrated the ability to consistently sustain drives. Entering Week 3, the Panthers are dead last in time of possession, and they've converted only six third downs. 

The Saints do have a good defense, but I'm not convinced that it's as special as it's been in years past. While they faced a mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota in Week 1, followed by the Tom Brady get the ball out as fast as possible offense in Week 2, it's notable that New Orleans has only one sack (fewest in the NFL) and three quarterback hurries thus far. 

On the other side of the ball, the offense is dealing with significant injuries – Alvin Kamara did not play last week and Jameis Winston is nursing multiple back fractures – that could carry over to Week 3. Winston hucked three interceptions on three straight possessions – including a back-breaking pick-six (no pun intended, I swear) – to single-handedly throw the Saints out of last week's home loss to the Bucs.

Without a doubt, New Orleans is the more talented team, but they've been too sloppy for me to trust. Carolina pulls off the upset and win outright in a potential job-saving victory for Matt Rhule.

The pick: Panthers 20 – Saints 17

Houston Texans (+3.0) at Chicago Bears

This matchup feels like an elaborate prank by the NFL schedule makers. My proposal? Move all Bears games to the Tuesday night MACtion slot. Let's just try it for the rest of this season and see what happens.

In all seriousness, watching the Bears on Sunday night felt like watching one of the service academies in college football. Chicago's passing game was devastatingly ineffective against a Green Bay defense that's plenty talented but is still working out some kinks. The Bears' box score looks like a relic from a bygone era: 11 pass attempts; 70 passing yards; a 6.7 QBR for Justin Fields, whose steam-powered motorcar barely made it to Lambeau Field in time for kickoff after a 12-hour shift at the coal mine.

Luckily, Chicago faces off against another bottom-feeder in Week 3. Houston earned a lot of credit for building a 20-3 lead on the Colts in Week 1, but with the benefit of hindsight, that no longer looks quite as impressive. The Texans' defense appears to be at least semi-decent, however, and Houston began to unleash rookie Damion Pierce in Week 2.

Given how little we know about either side at this point, this is a brutal game to handicap. But keep in mind that it's supposed to be 68 degrees and partly cloudy in Chicago on Sunday (source: the internet). Little to no chance of precipitation. That's terrible news for the Bears.

In a final score I specifically picked because it's never happened in the history of the NFL, give me the Texans to win outright in an incredibly ugly game.

The pick: Texans 15 – Bears 11

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

Coming off of the huge comeback against Baltimore, suddenly Miami feels like the "it" team in the AFC. Mike McDaniel is the early Coach of the Year favorite and the Dolphins are a legitimately cool franchise for the first time since… The Jay Ajayi Year? The Ricky Williams Era? 

Months ago, I firmly planted my flag as Tua is not the guy guy, so to say I'm a bit shaken up by his 469-yard, six-touchdown performance would be an understatement. All four of Tua, McDaniel, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill deserve credit for the Dolphins' 28-point fourth quarter, but one of the early revelations this season is that Baltimore's defense – the secondary, in particular – might not be very good.

On the contrary, we know for a fact that the Bills are an extremely good team – probably the best in the league at this stage. In the last two weeks, Buffalo has beaten the defending champs and the No. 1 seed in the AFC by a combined score of 72 to 17. And Buffalo has owned Miami of late, winning the last seven matchups outright, including the last three by a combined score of 117 to 37. I'll admit I'm close to fully buying in on the Dolphins, but the Bills have given us no reason to believe they won't take care of business – even on a short week. 

In the only matchup between unbeaten teams this week (only six unbeatens remain), I'm riding with the Bills to win and cover.

The pick: Bills 31 – Dolphins 24

Detroit Lions (+6.0) at Minnesota Vikings

Everyone piled on the Vikings bandwagon after their Week 1 beatdown of the Packers, but the momentum has slowed considerably following Monday night's loss in Philly. The Vikings were able to slow down Jalen Hurts and generate some turnovers in the second half but could not overcome three costly Kirk Cousins interceptions – two in the endzone and one inside the 15-yard-line. All in all, I'm not dramatically changing my opinion on Minnesota. Hurts had one of the best nights of his career and the Eagles' defense was all over Justin Jefferson from start to finish.

Minnesota now returns home to face an offense that put up 35 points on Philadelphia in Week 1. Detroit followed up with another explosive showing against Washington in Week 2, piling up 36 points behind four touchdown passes from Jared Goff.

The Lions have the look of a team we'll struggle to figure out all season. I'm still not convinced that they're good, but their ability to consistently generate big plays – both on the ground and through the air – has been extremely impressive.

I still give the edge to Minnesota at home, but I'll take the Lions to cover the 6.0 points in their first road test of the season.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Lions 24

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.0) at New York Jets

I was willing to give the Bengals the benefit of the doubt after nearly overcoming five turnovers to win against Pittsburgh, but last week's loss to Dallas has me re-evaluating a team I believed would avoid a Super Bowl hangover. Cincinnati's re-tooled offensive line has been horrendous through two weeks, surrendering 13 sacks and failing to create any room for Joe Mixon, who's rushed for 139 yards on 46 carries thus far.

The Jets, who tripped up the Bengals a season ago, should be the perfect get-right opponent, but Cincinnati is a difficult team to trust right now. If Bengals manage to lose this game, it will be time to enter full-on panic mode. No questions asked.

For the third straight week, I'll close my eyes, clench my teeth, and side with Cincy's overwhelming skill-position talent, but I don't feel nearly as good about it as I thought I would a few weeks ago.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Jets 20

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.0) at Tennessee Titans

The Browns' and Ravens' collapses in the early window took some of the shine away from the Raiders, who had absolutely no business losing to Arizona after building a 20-0 halftime lead. Las Vegas' offense completely shut down in the second half, due in part to the fact that it was barely on the field (19 offensive plays in the second half). The Raiders' defense is once again a major concern – especially after allowing a game-tying, 18-play drive that included three fourth-down conversions plus the two-point try.

As much as I'm ready to jump off of the Raiders – a team I initially liked as a longshot to win the AFC West – how can I do it against a Titans team that's on a short week, lost its starting left tackle, and benched its quarterback before the end of the third quarter Monday night? 

I'm legally required to disclose that this has all of the makings of a just when you thought we were dead game for Mike Vrabel. And the line has already moved a half-point Tennessee's way. Nonetheless, I'm taking the Raiders to win and cover on the road. 

The pick: Raiders 21 – Titans 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

Following Monday night's decimation of the Vikings, Philadelphia has to be taken seriously as one of the elites in the NFC. Jalen Hurts looks the part of an MVP candidate, and the Eagles' ability to run the ball, run with the quarterback and hit big plays through the air makes this offense among the most dangerous in the league.

Already, the Commanders' offense has looked much more potent than most expected, but they've also been prone to turnovers and long stretches of ineffectiveness (i.e. the entire first half in Detroit). Against a team the caliber of Philly, Washington won't be able to get away with a slow start. This Eagles secondary will also be a great test for the Terry McLaurin-Curtis Samuel-Jahan Dotson three-headed monster.

With the Eagles traveling on a short week, I think we get a competitive game, but the better team should take care of business. 

The pick: Eagles 33 – Commanders 24

Sunday Late Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.0) at Los Angeles Chargers

It goes without saying that the status of Justin Herbert will determine how we attack this game. If Herbert is held out and it's Chase Daniel O'Clock, then I like the Jags to keep it rolling and win a close game on the road. Keep in mind that Keenan Allen, who sat out against the Chiefs, is no guarantee to play in Week 3, either.

If Herbert does play, then the Chargers become perhaps the most popular survivor pick in Week 3. For as dominant as the Jaguars were in Week 2, they're not quite ready to win a game like this on the road. Even without Allen, the Chargers' offense is at a significant advantage.

Where this becomes tricky is if Herbert is cleared to play but is still hampered by the fractured cartilage in his ribs. While he played through the injury for the final couple of possessions against Kansas City, he was in obvious discomfort and needed to avoid being hit at all costs. As of now, it feels like Herbert gutting it out is the most likely outcome, but one hit from a Jags defense that's racked up six sacks and 10 quarterback hits in two games thus far could be trouble.

The pick (Herbert at QB): Chargers 27 – Jaguars 14

The pick (Chase Daniel): Jaguars 20 – Chargers 17

Green Bay Packers (+2.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is another game with significant availability questions. The NFL heard Mike Evans' suspension appeal Tuesday and a ruling should come soon, but there's a good chance it will be upheld. Meanwhile, both Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are questionable.

Update:

Credit to the Bucs for finding their way to another grind-it-out win in New Orleans without Jones, Godwin and Evans (for part of the game), but they've only managed two offensive touchdowns through the first two weeks. That's simply not sustainable.

Jameis Winston also did all he could to help out the cause on Sunday. Tampa can't count on the guy who literally throws fewer picks than anyone in NFL history to gift them three interceptions (including an easy pick-six), though it's worth noting that Aaron Rodgers has struggled in his last two matchups against Todd Bowles' defense (0-2, 3 INT).

Either way, the Packers are a better offense than the Cowboys or the Saints, but they're still ironing out some issues in the passing game. If Green Bay is able to get Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon going, then they'll have a great chance to pull the mild upset on the road – particularly if Tom Brady ends up shorthanded at wide receiver. But if Green Bay is forced away from the run, as it was against Minnesota in Week 1, then Tampa Bay's secondary will have the distinct advantage.

Ultimately, it seems as though Green Bay often gets out-physicaled (football guy term) in these marquee matchups. I'll admit I'm doing some hedging here, but I'll go with the Bucs to win another low scoring affair while the Packers cover.

The pick: Buccaneers 17 – Packers 16

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Rams had what felt like a get-right performance against Atlanta for the first three quarters before nearly allowing the Falcons to storm back and steal the victory. While the defending champs clearly still have some issues to iron out – for one, Matthew Stafford needs to stop studying Nathan Peterman tape – I don't see them getting (almost) tripped up for the second week in a row.

In the second half against the Raiders, the Cardinals proved that they're not nearly as bad as they looked against Kansas City in Week 1, but I'm still not convinced this is anything more than an average roster with a quarterback who can occasionally win a game by himself.

Having built some confidence last week, the Cardinals should be able to hang around, but I like the Rams to win and cover.

The pick: Rams 26 – Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons (+2.0) at Seattle Seahawks

This game is basically Texans-Bears but with souped-up uniforms. As far as winless teams go, the Falcons probably lead the league in overall friskiness, having come very close to beating the Saints in Week 1 and nearly surprising the Rams in Week 2. While they're yet to get Kyle Pitts involved whatsoever, Marcus Mariota has been fine and they've found ways to score against two good defenses. 

Meanwhile, Seattle pulled off a Week 1 win over Denver that was equal parts emotional and nonsensical. Then, the Seahawks followed up with a rough showing against the 49ers in Week 2, leaving us completely unsure if this team can move the ball.

While admitting that, on balance, the Falcons have looked like the better side so far, I'm inclined to take the Seahawks to win and cover as the home team.

The pick: Seahawks 20 – Falcons 17

Sunday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos

I'm not sure I've ever been more excited to watch a game purely for time-management purposes. After botching multiple key situations against Seattle in Week 1, Nathaniel Hackett repeated some eerily similar mistakes last week against Houston. He's on an almost Linsanity-esque run to begin his head coaching career. It can't possibly happen again, can it?

We've seen plenty of bad decisions over the years, but I can't recall anything quite like this. Denver is now 0-for-6 on scoring touchdowns in the red zone this season. Things got so dire last week that the Broncos' home crowd was counting down the play clock like it was the shot clock at an NBA game.

Truth be told, the Broncos are very lucky they were playing the Houston Texans last week or they would be staring down an 0-2 start. Injuries have hit Denver hard, but that doesn't explain how discombobulated this offense has looked.

On the other side, San Francisco is back to Jimmy Garoppolo, who looked plenty comfortable after coming on in relief last week against Seattle. The Niners should also get George Kittle back this week to aid a somewhat-sluggish passing attack.

San Francisco feels like the obvious play given the Broncos' dysfunction, but part of me wants to believe Denver can find whatever it's been missing on offense. With some key injuries, I don't have the guts to take the Broncos outright, but I think they make this a very close game. Broncos cover, let's ride.

The pick: 49ers 20 – Broncos 19

Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at New York Giants

The Giants are an improbable 2-0 after narrow wins over Tennessee and Carolina. Saquon Barkley looked like his old self in Week 1, while the defense forced turnovers and came up with some huge stops against Carolina. With Cooper Rush under center for Dallas, anything can happen, but Rush acquitted himself well against Cincinnati, while the Cowboys' defense put on another stellar performance. 

As long as Rush can game-manage and avoid mistakes again, I like Micah Parsons and the defense to limit Barkley and put the game in Daniel Jones' hands. More often than not, Jones having to make plays on third down is beneficial for the opponent.

The pick: Cowboys 20 – Giants 16

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