Beating the Book: NFL Week 13 ATS Picks for Every Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 13 edition of Beating the Book!

After the dust settled on a chaotic Week 12, we emerged with a respectable 8-5 ATS mark, despite whiffing on the Patriots and Commanders covering and losing our Vikings cover in the waning moments of the fourth quarter. A strong finish to the week, hitting both Philly and Baltimore in the primetime slots, pushes our season-long mark to 95-81-3.

We now turn the page to Week 13, where all 32 teams are back in action. Thursday's six-game, Thanksgiving Day slate is headlined by a Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito (possibly) showdown, and we'll get Patrick Mahomes vs. Aidan O'Connell (also, possibly) in the Black Friday standalone spot.

As of publication, only one game features a double-digit spread: the Chiefs -13.0 vs. the Raiders. The Lions (-9.5 vs. CHI) and the Bills (-6.5 vs. SF) are the only other sides currently favored by at least 6.0 points.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 13 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 12:

Seahawks -1.0 vs. Cardinals: This felt like a true toss-up game, but Seattle's defense came up with one of its best performances of the season, completely shutting down the Cards' ground game.

Buccaneers -5.5 at Giants: We made the bold decision to fade a third-string quarterback who none of his teammates wanted to start, and it paid off.

Worst calls of Week 12:

Commanders -10.5 vs. Cowboys: I initially sided with Dallas but chickened out and trusted a Washington team that was never in danger of covering this number.

Chiefs -10.5 at Panthers: We went against the trends and got burned in a major way. Carolina played easily its best game of the season, while the Chiefs' defense gave up an uncharacteristic number of big plays.

Last week: 8-5 ATS; 9-4 SU; best bet lost (Chiefs -10.5)

On the season: 95-81-3 ATS; 118-61 SU; 4-6-2 best bets

Thanksgiving Thursday Slate

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -9.5

Total: 48.5

The Lions covered with ease last week against the Colts but only finished with 24 points – a completely respectable number for most teams, but by Detroit's standards, it was a subpar offensive day. Nonetheless, the Lions still put up 390 yards of offense and held the Colts under 270. 

Meanwhile, the Bears' offense has turned in back-to-back impressive showings, and I thought Caleb Williams' Week 12 performance against Minnesota was pretty easily his best of the season. I do think Williams has turned a corner, but can he keep it up on the road, where Chicago is 0-4 SU on the season? We will see.

I like Detroit to win this game comfortably and pick up their first Thanksgiving Day victory of the Jared Goff era. Over the last 20 years, Thanksgiving favorites are a whopping 48-9 SU, including 38-19 ATS.

The pick: Lions 30 – Bears 20

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -3.5

Total: 37.5

I know the NFL can't flex out this game, but my goodness. Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito – or perhaps Drew Lock? – on a national holiday. What have we done to deserve this? 

The silver lining is this game kicks off at 4:30pm ET, so there's a decent chance it will line up with your Thanksgiving meal. With all of that said, football is football. I'm going to watch no matter what, and chances are, you will too.

Anyway, Dallas is coming off of a somewhat-impressive win over Washington in what was easily the weirdest game of the season. Rush remains a reasonable backup, and the Cowboys were able to run the ball fairly effectively – by their standards – in Week 12.

On the other side, the Giants were pulverized by Tampa Bay and started the game with five consecutive non-scoring drives. New York didn't convert its first third down until five minutes into the third quarter.

Realistically, it won't be as bad this week, and if it is Lock starting for the Giants, I think that raises their ceiling. We'll take Dallas to win outright by a field goal, but the Giants can cover.

The pick: Cowboys 20 – Giants 17

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3.0

Total: 47.5

This is pretty easily the best game of the Thanksgiving Day slate. Miami comes in hot after two straight impressive wins, while Green Bay took care of business about as convincingly as possible against the banged-up Niners.

The Packers have some injuries that could swing this – Romeo Doubs, Jaire Alexander – but the weather should certainly favor a Green Bay offense that's grown into one of the best ground attacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' run defense has been strong, but Miami is still struggling to run the ball on a week-to-week basis. Over the last three games, the Dolphins have topped out at just 82 rushing yards as a team.

That means the game will likely rest on the arm of Tua Tagovailoa, who was able to get Jaylen Waddle re-introduced to the offense last week. The addition of Jonnu Smith also continues to pay major dividends, providing Miami with a weapon at tight end for the first time in years.

Ultimately, I lean Green Bay to win a close game at home, but I would not be surprised if the Dolphins, who absolutely need this game more, find a way to keep it within a field goal, or even win outright.

The pick: Packers 28 – Dolphins 24

Black Friday Game

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -13.0

Total: 42.5

Patrick Mahomes entered Week 12 having never covered as a double-digit road favorite in his career. That mark is still very much intact after KC needed yet another last-second field goal to win outright in Carolina. While the Panthers played their best game of the season, it was a concerning showing for the Chiefs' defense, which gave up north of 8.0 yards per play in the first half and struggled to get to Bryce Young.

Given what we saw from Kansas City last week, this should be a decent spot for the Raiders to keep things respectable, but they lost Gardner Minshew last week and will now go back to Aidan O'Connell, provided he's cleared to play by Friday. O'Connell isn't a massive downgrade from Minshew, so if he's able to go, I like the Raiders to cover. If it's Desmond Ridder… that's a different story.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 17 (with O'Connell); Chiefs 27 -- Raiders 10 (with Ridder)

Sunday Early Slate

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Chargers -1.5

Total: 47.5

When I started looking ahead at lines on Sunday night, this is one of a few games that immediately jumped out. The Chargers will be at a distinct rest disadvantage, having played on Monday night while Atlanta comes out of a bye, but even after the loss to Baltimore, I continue to be impressed with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles passing game. 

On the season, the Falcons are a bottom-10 defense overall, and they're 24th in EPA against the pass. Part of the issue is Atlanta simply cannot generate pressure. The Falcons rank 30th in pressure rate and have just 10 sacks through 11 games – seven fewer than any other team (Carolina). With J.K. Dobbins' status up in the air, the Chargers could struggle to run the ball, but I have very little faith in the Atlanta defense keeping Herbert down.

With the bye week to prepare, I would expect a better offensive day for Atlanta, relative to the last two losses against New Orleans and Denver, but even with inferior weapons, I side with Herbert and Chargers if this game does turn into a semi-shootout, as the total would suggest.

The pick: Chargers 28 – Falcons 21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -2.5

Total: 46.5

This is the first meeting of the season between two AFC North rivals. Cincinnati desperately needs a win to hang around in the AFC playoff race, while Pittsburgh is coming off of a disappointing-yet-defensible loss to Cleveland in a Thursday night snow storm.

With Tee Higgins back in the mix, the Cincinnati offense is operating at a high level, but the Steelers rank fourth in defensive EPA, including sixth against the pass. Even against a good defense, I expect Cincinnati to be able to move the ball and put up points. The question is whether the Bengals' bottom-five defense will be able to get enough stops.

Recent history strongly suggests that the answer is "no", but I'm not sure I fully trust this Pittsburgh offense, which is heavily reliant on completing multiple chunk plays through the air. With their season on the line, we'll take the Bengals to finally win a close game.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Steelers 24

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Texans -4.0

Total: 43.5

First of all, we need to make one thing clear: the Texans are very lucky they play in the AFC South. I'm not sold on this team whatsoever, and yet they still hold a comfortable lead in the division and have banked two wins against the second-place Colts.

Entering Week 13, Houston has dropped three of its last four, including a baffling loss to the Titans last week in which Houston was out-gained by over 100 yards, managed just 40 yards on the ground, gave up a 70-yard touchdown to a tight end, threw two horrific interceptions, and missed the game-tying, 28-yard field goal.

The fact that Houston still almost won says more about the Titans than anything else, but the Texan's offense simply has not been humming at close to an elite level for most of the season. Getting Nico Collins back has certainly helped, but Houston has now failed to get anything on the ground in two of the last three games.

The good news is the Texans face a two-win Jags team this week, though Jacksonville may get Trevor Lawrence back from injury. Lawrence still has plenty of doubters, and perhaps rightfully so, but the last two games were definitive proof that he's a significantly better option than Mac Jones, who led the Jags to 13 total points in losses to Detroit and Minnesota.

If Lawrence is back at full strength, Jacksonville should be able to hang around, just as it did in Week 4 in Houston, but the Jaguars' secondary remains a catastrophic liability. I could see Jacksonville being a trendy dog this week, but we're going to go the other way and take Houston to regroup and win by a touchdown.

The pick: Texans 27 – Jaguars 21

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -3.5

Total: 45.0

Much like the Texans, Minnesota has been a frustrating team week-to-week, but unlike Houston, they continue to win games. After dropping back-to-back matchups against Detroit and Los Angeles, the Vikings have now won four straight over the Colts, Jags, Titans and Bears.

Now, a win is a win, but Minnesota had no business going to overtime last week. The Vikings defense gave up a late touchdown drive and followed up with a disastrous error on the Bears' ensuing onside kick attempt.

Nevertheless, Minnesota sits at 9-2 and in pole position for a Wild Card spot in the NFC.

The Cardinals come into this game after a lackluster loss in Seattle in which Kyler Murray was sacked eight times and the Cardinals' running game was completely shut down. Arizona remains in the driver's seat in the NFC West, holding SU wins over the Rams and Niners, but the Cards can't afford too many slip-ups, especially with three divisional games remaining on the schedule.

This should be a bounceback spot for the Cardinals following their worst offensive game of the season, but this number feels a bit low considering it's on the road in Minnesota. I favor the Vikings' defense here, and as long as Sam Darnold can play relatively mistake-free football – we'll afford him one (1) pick or fumble – the Vikings can win by a field goal.

The pick: Vikings 24 – Cardinals 17

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Spread: Colts -2.5

Total: 42.5

Yiikes. I'll be honest – not sure what to do with this game. The Pats are coming off of a beatdown against Miami last week, a game they trailed 31-0 before tacking on a miracle, 4th-and-15 touchdown and a fumble recovery for a score. I expected New England to put up more of a fight in that one, but Miami scored on four straight possessions to end the first half and the game was essentially sewn up.

The Colts, meanwhile, were shut out in the second half against Detroit after playing the Lions to a one-score game through two quarters. While Anthony Richardson continues to struggle with efficiency, he's also dealt with drops and a high number of killer penalties. Last week, Indy picked up 75 yards in penalties and had 97 yards of offense erased by said penalties – a 172-yard swing. 

With or without Richardson, the Colts are also struggling to run the ball on a consistent basis. After beginning the season with four straight 100-plus-yard efforts, Indy has reached 100 rushing yards as a team only three times in its last eight games. 

Going on the road to New England, I think we get a close game between two struggling offenses. I like the U42.5 best, but we'll lean with the Colts to make just enough plays to win by a field goal.

The pick: Colts 20 – Patriots 17

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Spread: Seahawks -1.5

Total: 42.0

On the early look-ahead, the Jets were slight home favorites, but the market has quickly corrected to Seattle -1.5. As we know, the Seahawks are on The List of teams that cannot be trusted on a weekly basis, but they've strung together two consecutive divisional wins over San Francisco and Arizona. Since their Week 10 bye, the Seahawks's defense has looked like a different unit, holding both the Niners and Cardinals under 20 points and under 300 total yards. 

The Seattle offense – the running game, in particular – hasn't exactly been red-hot, but this should be a good spot against a struggling Jets defense that seems to get worse and worse as the season goes along. With an extra week to prepare, the Jets will make this a game, but this is ultimately a dead team with an injured quarterback and nothing to play for. 

The pick: Seahawks 23 – Jets 16

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -5.5

Total: 44.5

With Washington having dropped three in a row, and the Titans coming off of a quality/extremely chaotic win over the Texans last week, this is suddenly one of the games I'm most interested in watching this weekend.

Tennessee covered for just the second time all season in Week 12, but the Titans have quietly been playing better football for the last few weeks. The run defense remains one of the best in the NFL and should have the advantage over a Commanders offense that has notably slowed down in recent weeks.

While Jayden Daniels was able to get loose against the Cowboys, Washington struggled to get much else on the ground against one of the NFL's worst defenses. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson exited the game on two separate occasions, while Austin Ekeler sustained a concussion – his second of the season – late in the fourth quarter on a kickoff return. As of publication, it's unclear if either back will be available, but chances are at least one of that duo won't be out there. The Commanders also had two starting offensive lineman depart last week's game with concussions.

Facing a mistake-prone quarterback, this is still a game Washington should win, but the Commanders' defense has only forced 11 turnovers on the year, and seven of those have come via fumbles. I'm trying hard not to lean too far into recency bias, but I would not be surprised if Tennessee hangs around and threatens to win this game outright.

The pick: Commanders 23 – Titans 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Bucs -5.5

Total: 46.5

Don't look now, but the Panthers – the Carolina Panthers – have covered three games in a row with two outright wins. They nearly snagged a third last week against Kansas City in what was, all things considered, probably the best game the Panthers have played in the Bryce Young Era. 

To his credit, Young has looked like a much better quarterback since returning from timeout, but this was easily his best game of the season. Young went throw for throw with Patrick Mahomes, hung in against pressure, and delivered a number of big plays that enabled Carolina to score on five of its first six possessions.

If Young can translate that performance to Week 13, this could be a winnable game for the Panthers at home against a much softer Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs emphatically took care of business last week against Tommy DeVito, holding the Giants without a third-down conversion until five minutes into the second half and ultimately out-gaining New York 450 to 245. Baker Mayfield continues to play at an elite level, and having Mike Evans back in the mix brings some much-needed stability to an otherwise nameless group of pass-catchers. 

With their eye on chasing down Atlanta for the division, I like the Bucs to keep it rolling and take care of business, but the Panthers have proven that they're not longer an auto-fade on a weekly basis.

The pick: Buccaneers 29 – Panthers 22

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Rams -2.5

Total: 48.5

Tricky spot here for the Rams, who are coming off of a Saquon Barkley bludgeoning on Sunday night but are still very much in the mix for the NFC West crown. The Rams' tackling and offensive line issues were on full display in Week 12, but not many teams have had success against the Eagles this season. We're not giving the Rams a pass, but that game was much less panic-inducing than their Week 10 loss to the Dolphins.

On the other side, New Orleans comes out of its bye riding a two-game winning streak since parting ways with Dennis Allen. The Taysom Hill Raid offense was alive and well in their Week 11 win over the Browns, but I'm not sure how sustainable that will be on a week-to-week basis. We also need to keep in mind that the Saints' bend-but-don't break defense could be in trouble this week. It's a unit that's allowed at least 375 yards in six of the last seven games and at least 440 yards in four of those. 

For their part, the Rams have struggled to run the ball of late, but this should be a spot for Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to get after a shaky secondary that gave up almost 400 yards passing to Jameis Winston. With distinct advantages at quarterback and head coach, I like the Rams to win and cover.

The pick: Rams 30 – Saints 24

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -3.0

Total: 50.5

We have ourselves a huge, cross-conference showdown in Baltimore to finish out the Sunday slate. In some ways, these teams are mirror images of each other. Both are coming off of big primetime wins, both have excellent rushing attacks, and both are also excellent at stopping the run.

Given the defenses involved, I see this game coming down to which of Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts is able to have more success as a passer. On paper, it's a better matchup for Hurts, going up against the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense, but Devonta Smith is banged up, and the Eagles are the lowest-volume passing team in the NFL, so they may have to get outside of their comfort zone.

With the number at 3.0, this is in major stay-away territory for me, so much so that we'll go ahead and make it the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. If Smith is in – and if Roquan Smith is out – I think Philly has more advantages, but the game is in Baltimore and it's tough to picture the Ravens coming out flat at home. We'll default to the home team to come up with enough stops to win another high-scoring affair.

The pick: Ravens 31 – Eagles 27

Sunday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -6.5

Total: 45.5

As of publication, it's unclear how many key 49ers players will be absent, but the injury report is starting to reach a critical mass. Playing without Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and a few others last week, the Niners were smacked around by the Packers, who ran all over a depleted defense.

The Niners did benefit from the Cardinals, Rams and Commanders all losing last week, but either way, they're now in desperate need of a win to stay afloat in the NFC playoff picture. Heading out on the road to Buffalo in primetime, with the Bills coming off of a bye, feels like almost a worst-case scenario. 

If Purdy, Williams and Bosa are back, I don't see the Niners going down without a fight, but given the current variables, we have to take the Bills to win and cover.

The pick: Bills 31 – 49ers 21

Monday Night Football

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -5.5

Total: 41.5

Jameis Winston vs. Bo Nix on Monday Night Football to conclude the Week 13 slate. Sign me the hell up. 

The Browns have picked up some momentum with wins over the Ravens and Steelers in recent weeks, but it's tough to discern how much we can really take from last Thursday's Snow Bowl in Cleveland. What we do know is this is a much more dangerous offense than it was at any point under Deshaun Watson, even if the Browns continue to fail to get the run game going. 

Denver enters Week 13 having won four of its last six, with excusable losses to Baltimore and Kansas City squeezed in-between. For much of the season, Denver has been winning with defense, but the Broncos' offense has put up at least 28 points in all four of those victories, including a 38-spot on Atlanta in Week 11. 

In last week's win over Vegas, the Broncos ran for only 63 yards as a team, but Bo Nix topped 250 passing yards for the second straight week as he continues his rapid development into an elite game-manager. Part of that is taking care of the ball. Nix has tossed only six interceptions on the year, and four of those came in the first two games of the season. He's thrown just one pick in his last 201 attempts, dating back to Week 7.

With Jameis at the controls, the Browns have become a fun, meme-able story, but going on the road without a running game to face an elite defense will be a difficult task. I like the Browns to keep this game close enough to cover, but the Broncos win outright.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Browns 20