ADP Analysis: Robinson Rebounds, Henderson Humbled

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

Before we get to ADP shifts, let's take a quick look back at the biggest fantasy stories this week:

1. Monday: Colts QB Carson Wentz (foot) returns to practice.
2. Tuesday: Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (foot) declared out for the season.
3. Wednesday: RB Sony Michel traded from the Patriots to the Rams.
4. Wednesday: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence named Week 1 starter.
5. Wednesday: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater named Week 1 starter.
6. Thursday: Giants RB Saquon Barkley takes snaps in 11-on-11s.
7. Friday: Saints QB Jameis Winston named Week 1 starter.

That's a lot to digest, but it's more or less expected after the first few weeks of camp/preseason were unusually quiet from a fantasy news standpoint. The calm before the storm, if you will.

Writing this article Friday morning/afternoon, we're looking at a tiny sample of drafts if we want to see, for example, if Barkley's ADP has been impacted by the return to full-team drills Thursday. For some of the earlier developments — namely Wentz, Etienne and Michel — we at least have enough data for it to be worth looking at. So let's do it!

ADP data comes from the National Fantasy Championships (NFC)

Rising

RB James Robinson

ADP last week: RB27, 71.6

ADP Aug. 24-26: RB17, ADP 36.5

This is likely the biggest ADP jump we'll see all summer, with Robinson now positioned for a role similar to last year's. However, he's still well behind his pre-Etienne ADP, having come off the board at RB14 (21.9) through the first four weeks of April. Back then, Robinson was drafted ahead of Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and David Montgomery — all of whom have earlier ADPs this week, even after the Etienne injury.

The easy conclusion is that drafters are under-reacting to the impact of Etienne's absence, but that would ignore the element of general pessimism surrounding the Jaguars. Obviously it's nothing news for 'Jags' and 'pessimism' to be paired together, but there was some hope Urban Meyer could improve things, and instead he kind of just seems like a clown. Robinson is still a bit undervalued for now, but he shouldn't be returned all the way to his April ADP. Draft him in the third or fourth round, not the second.

RB Carlos Hyde

ADP last week: RB83, 281.9

ADP Aug. 24-26: RB60, ADP 197.5

Hyde was taken in just 33 of 68 NFFC drafts last week (Aug. 16-20), putting him far outside the Top 200 overall. He's now back to relevance as a late-round pick, and probably should be going a little earlier if we look at some of the third-string backs taken ahead of him. Hyde will get some touches even if Robinson stays healthy, and the 30-year-old likely would be looking at ~15 carries per week if his backfield mate were to miss time (check out the rest of Jacksonville's depth chart, with all due respect to Mr. Ozigbo). There should be some value to squeeze out here unless Hyde's ADP rises to around 180.0 and RB55.

RB Sony Michel

ADP last week: RB71, 253.8

ADP Aug. 25-26: RB40, 111.7

The trade was completed Wednesday morning around breakfast time (I had oatmeal, fwiw) on the East Coast. That gives us two full days (and 30 drafts) worth of ADP data to work with. Not ideal, but it's probably enough to confirm the initial suspicion that drafters are too excited about Michel.

He's still a first-round bust with knee problems and minimal pass-catching experience in the NFL, and he might get stuck in a committee with Xavier Jones and/or Jake Funk even if Darrell Henderson misses a bunch of games (which is admittedly quite possible). Michel belongs around RB50, not RB40. Put him a few spots ahead of where you had Jones last week, sure. But it shouldn't be miles ahead... unless you're a slave to draft capital, that is.

RB Damien Harris

ADP last week: RB32, 86.6

ADP Aug. 25-26: RB28, 70.2

The biggest problem for Harris was the lack of receiving work, which pertains to James White far more than Michel. It's nice to have another body out of the way, but Rhamondre Stevenson might just get whatever carries previously were ticketed for Michel. Either way, Harris is the lead runner but doesn't have a whole lot of upside. He was a better pick at the old, cheaper price with Michel still on the roster.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

ADP last week: RB57, ADP 178.1

ADP Aug. 25-26: RB49, ADP 141.8

The rookie fourth-round pick has been a monster Rhamonster this preseason, likely playing a role in King Bill's decision to trade Michel. But Stevenson still figures to have the same problems as Harris even if he does eventually land in the lead role. Cam Newton steals rushing TDs, and doesn't do much else. Mac Jones is a rookie. James White plays on obvious passing downs. Then again, most of the backups in this draft range don't have high ceilings. The guys with RB1 upside like Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison go a round or two before Stevenson's current spot.

RB Myles Gaskin

ADP last week: RB29, 74.2

ADP this week: RB25, 59.3

Last week, Gaskin dropped from RB25 to RB29 after Malcolm Brown started Miami's preseason opener, in which Salvon Ahmed outplayed both of his backfield mates. Gaskin rebounded in Week 2 with the start and two touchdowns, but he still shared first-team snaps with both Brown and Ahmed. Given the still-present danger of a committee, Gaskin's draft spot this week seems too optimistic. I'll draft him if he drops to the 70s, at which point the WRs start to look a lot weaker. No way I'm taking him when Brandon Aiyuk or Chase Claypool or Odell Beckham is still available. Ahmed for free at the end of drafts is where it's at.

Falling

RB Darrell Henderson

ADP last week: RB21, 47.4

ADP Aug. 25-26: RB26, 63.1

Regardless of personal opinions on Michel, it's only fair to move Henderson down after his team added another backfield body. The extent of the drop is up for debate, and what we've seen so far actually seems reasonable despite the excessively sunny outlook on Michel. That said, yours truly will buy the dip. Henderson still has a shot at a three-down role Week 1 on a probable playoff team, while other backs drafted in the same range need a teammate injury to have any shot at that happening.

RB Xavier Jones

ADP Last Week: RB55, 165.9

ADP Aug. 25-26: RB73, 246.3

Henderson isn't trustworthy, and Michel is neither trustworthy nor effective. That keeps Jones, a 2020 UDFA, in play as a 20th-round type best-ball pick. But there's no doubt the Michel trade hurts him a lot — even if Henderson goes down, Jones might just be part of a three-man committee.

Other ADP Notes

• Wentz's return to practice didn't move the needle. Last week, he was QB24, ADP 197.8. This week, he's at QB23, 193.1. Maybe we'd see more movement with a larger sample, but Wentz already saw his ADP rebound earlier this month amidst positive reports on his recovery. At this point, most are expecting him to play Week 1.
• Bridgewater was drafted last week at QB36, ADP 270.8. After being named the Week 1 starter Wednesday, he came off the board Thursday at QB31, ADP 241.4, selected in eight of 15 drafts on NFC.
• Trey Lance is up to QB14, ADP 118.0 this week. Last week he was QB16, ADP 126.6. In between, he threw two TDs in a preseason win over the Chargers. Plus, he may have attracted some attention from people who moved away from Justin Fields after Matt Nagy officially named Andy Dalton the Week 1 starter.
• I thought drafters would overreact to Nagy's announcement, but they've avoided the trap, realizing that Week 1 isn't the appeal with Fields anyway. This week he's at QB15, ADP 128.1, down from QB14, ADP 121.0 last week.
• We still need to wait for the dust to settle after Jameis Winston was named the Saints' Week 1 starter Friday morning. However, drafters had already responded to his big preseason performance Monday night, pushing Winston up from QB29 last week to QB24 this week. He should settle in around QB 20-22, though I prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick and Baker Mayfield in that range.
• Jonathan Taylor bounced back this week. He's gone at RB6, ADP 7.3, up from last week's RB6, 9.2. He darn near fell to the second round at one point but  now seems to be back to his original, pre-camp draft spot. We were worried about Marlon Mack, and then we weren't. Or something like that. Personally, I never moved Taylor. I've had him as a late-first-round pick throughout, only acquiring shares when he falls to the 1/2 turn. Also like Mack around pick 200, with a Taylor injury or possible trade giving him two different paths to RB2 production (though neither seems especially likely).
• James White held steady at RB52. Good work everyone, recognizing that the Michel trade isn't really pertinent to White's role/outlook.